Since many on this site may be buying or selling a home at any given time, own investment properties, or commercial real estate I'm posting this weekly update to stay current.
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Current Rates -
30 Year Conventional - Mid 6's
15 Year Conventional - Mid 5's
30 Year Jumbo - Low 6's
30 Year FHA - Low 6's
30 Year VA - High 5's
Home Sales Decline -
Over the last two weeks, we received updated indicators on the macro trends occurring in the housing market.
Home sales continued to disappoint growing by just 0.04% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 4.57 million. In October, existing home sales rose 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 3.96 million. However, new home sales declined by -17.3% to a SAAR of 610 thousand.
On the inventory front, unsold existing homes expanded by 0.7% M/M to 1.37 million in October. Meanwhile, new home inventory surged by 4.24% M/M to 492 thousand. These developments place total housing inventory levels at 1.862 million, the highest level since November 2019 when inventory levels came in at 1.965 million. Going forward the hope of market participants is that the worst of the downturn in home sales is over and that increasing inventory levels will ultimately lead to more transactions in 2025.
If increased inventory levels do not lead to increased transactions, then the likely scenario is that home prices will contract. As we can see in the two charts, months' supply continues to tick up for both existing and new home sales which is wading further and further into buyer's market territory. Given the strong historic correlation between months' supply and annual home price growth. The current trend favors a slowdown in home price growth.
In recent years, home prices have been supported by this reduction in supply despite a reduction in affordability. The coming year could be a turning point when the two collide.
Prices Continue to Hold Up -
Home prices nationally continue to hold up over last year. The median price of single-family homes in the U.S. is $384,900 now. This is the median price of the homes going under contract each week. This is what people are buying. Even though the price ticked down in the latest data with the low volume over Thanksgiving weekend, home prices continue to be up about 5% over last year, on average in recent weeks.
When we look at the leading indicators of future sales prices, we see stability, and not much negative pressure. If you’re waiting for a big price correction before you finally pull the trigger to buy a home, there’s just no signal in the data of an imminent price correction.
Mortgage Delinquency On the Rise -
After hitting a historic low point in 2023, mortgage delinquency rates have been climbing rapidly in recent quarters, particularly within the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) portfolio. The shift is being driven by a combination of factors, including macroeconomic pressures, the impact of natural disasters, and rising property insurance premiums and taxes.
Certain borrower groups are especially vulnerable, including those with lower credit scores, higher debt-to-income ratios and those who opted for more affordable loan products. Similarly, some borrowers who transitioned from COVID-19 forbearance plans into workout options are now experiencing renewed financial strain as they renegotiate terms with their servicers.
Despite the uptick, economists caution against alarm — for now. While delinquency rates have increased, they remain relatively low by historical standards. Still, further deterioration could pose challenges for some investors and servicers and will warrant close attention, according to industry experts.
CFPB Puts Mortgage Brokers In Their Sights -
Mortgage brokerage firms are now under heightened scrutiny from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The regulator has recently assembled a team to audit these firms as their market presence has grown to rival regional lenders, HousingWire has learned.
The CFPB’s focus is on how brokerage firms comply with loan officer compensation rules, particularly in regard to lender-paid versus borrower-paid options. Additionally, the bureau is evaluating whether brokers effectively shop for the best loan options for borrowers and adhere to fair lending practices.
A key area of concern is steering practices, in which brokers may direct loans to lenders that offer more compensation rather than those that provide the best terms for borrowers — a practice first noticed during the financial crisis of the late 2000s. This federal oversight, which targets larger mortgage brokerage, complements state-level audits already in place.
Personal Note - As a Mortgage Banker I applaud this scrutiny of mortgage brokers. Mortgage Bankers have faced these audits since day 1 and they keep everyone honest with a level-playing field. It's never right when a certain section of the marketplace "games the system". Many, but not all abuse the regulations of Loan Officer Compensation in clear violation of the law.
Odds & Ends -
Builder Inventory Up
Perhaps Credit Card Debt is Hampering Home Buying
25% of Fort Worth Homes Owned by Investor and/or Corporation
Final Thoughts -
I hope everyone is having an Amazing Holiday Season - here's to our Horns getting healthy and rested for the championship run!
Always happy to answer any real estate or mortgage questions ITT or via DM.
***We moved our offices to 2603 Augusta - if you have not tried "Levant Bar-B-Que" on the corner of Fountain View/Westheimer if you are in the area it's fantastic - at least the brisket is - as I had a brisket sandwich - great meat and bread. Ice-Cold Mexican Cokes too***
Hook 'Em!
MH
The data is well researched from multiple sources concerning the real estate & mortgage market.
Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.
As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".
Current Rates -
30 Year Conventional - Mid 6's
15 Year Conventional - Mid 5's
30 Year Jumbo - Low 6's
30 Year FHA - Low 6's
30 Year VA - High 5's
Home Sales Decline -
Over the last two weeks, we received updated indicators on the macro trends occurring in the housing market.
Home sales continued to disappoint growing by just 0.04% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 4.57 million. In October, existing home sales rose 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 3.96 million. However, new home sales declined by -17.3% to a SAAR of 610 thousand.
On the inventory front, unsold existing homes expanded by 0.7% M/M to 1.37 million in October. Meanwhile, new home inventory surged by 4.24% M/M to 492 thousand. These developments place total housing inventory levels at 1.862 million, the highest level since November 2019 when inventory levels came in at 1.965 million. Going forward the hope of market participants is that the worst of the downturn in home sales is over and that increasing inventory levels will ultimately lead to more transactions in 2025.
If increased inventory levels do not lead to increased transactions, then the likely scenario is that home prices will contract. As we can see in the two charts, months' supply continues to tick up for both existing and new home sales which is wading further and further into buyer's market territory. Given the strong historic correlation between months' supply and annual home price growth. The current trend favors a slowdown in home price growth.
In recent years, home prices have been supported by this reduction in supply despite a reduction in affordability. The coming year could be a turning point when the two collide.
Prices Continue to Hold Up -
Home prices nationally continue to hold up over last year. The median price of single-family homes in the U.S. is $384,900 now. This is the median price of the homes going under contract each week. This is what people are buying. Even though the price ticked down in the latest data with the low volume over Thanksgiving weekend, home prices continue to be up about 5% over last year, on average in recent weeks.
When we look at the leading indicators of future sales prices, we see stability, and not much negative pressure. If you’re waiting for a big price correction before you finally pull the trigger to buy a home, there’s just no signal in the data of an imminent price correction.
Mortgage Delinquency On the Rise -
After hitting a historic low point in 2023, mortgage delinquency rates have been climbing rapidly in recent quarters, particularly within the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) portfolio. The shift is being driven by a combination of factors, including macroeconomic pressures, the impact of natural disasters, and rising property insurance premiums and taxes.
Certain borrower groups are especially vulnerable, including those with lower credit scores, higher debt-to-income ratios and those who opted for more affordable loan products. Similarly, some borrowers who transitioned from COVID-19 forbearance plans into workout options are now experiencing renewed financial strain as they renegotiate terms with their servicers.
Despite the uptick, economists caution against alarm — for now. While delinquency rates have increased, they remain relatively low by historical standards. Still, further deterioration could pose challenges for some investors and servicers and will warrant close attention, according to industry experts.
CFPB Puts Mortgage Brokers In Their Sights -
Mortgage brokerage firms are now under heightened scrutiny from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The regulator has recently assembled a team to audit these firms as their market presence has grown to rival regional lenders, HousingWire has learned.
The CFPB’s focus is on how brokerage firms comply with loan officer compensation rules, particularly in regard to lender-paid versus borrower-paid options. Additionally, the bureau is evaluating whether brokers effectively shop for the best loan options for borrowers and adhere to fair lending practices.
A key area of concern is steering practices, in which brokers may direct loans to lenders that offer more compensation rather than those that provide the best terms for borrowers — a practice first noticed during the financial crisis of the late 2000s. This federal oversight, which targets larger mortgage brokerage, complements state-level audits already in place.
Personal Note - As a Mortgage Banker I applaud this scrutiny of mortgage brokers. Mortgage Bankers have faced these audits since day 1 and they keep everyone honest with a level-playing field. It's never right when a certain section of the marketplace "games the system". Many, but not all abuse the regulations of Loan Officer Compensation in clear violation of the law.
Odds & Ends -
Builder Inventory Up
Perhaps Credit Card Debt is Hampering Home Buying
25% of Fort Worth Homes Owned by Investor and/or Corporation
Final Thoughts -
I hope everyone is having an Amazing Holiday Season - here's to our Horns getting healthy and rested for the championship run!
Always happy to answer any real estate or mortgage questions ITT or via DM.
***We moved our offices to 2603 Augusta - if you have not tried "Levant Bar-B-Que" on the corner of Fountain View/Westheimer if you are in the area it's fantastic - at least the brisket is - as I had a brisket sandwich - great meat and bread. Ice-Cold Mexican Cokes too***
Hook 'Em!
MH
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