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*****
The plan is for Arch Manning to redshirt.
At this point, we should all probably come to that realization (if we hadn't already). Steve Sarkisian (rightfully enough) does not always shoot the media and the fans straight about his plans for the program, but by now it's obvious that comments he's made about Arch being open to redshirting (and perhaps even favoring it) were indeed part of the overall plan.
But, what about next year? What is THAT plan? Let's assume for the sake of argument that Quinn Ewers is indeed gone for the NFL. That leaves Texas with two very good prospects in Maalik Murphy and Arch Manning. That is some oxygen being given to the notion that a plan could be in place to have Manning redshirt in 2023, sit behind Murphy for one year in 2024 as Murphy plays one season at Texas before entering the NFL, then it will be Arch Mania for 2025 with the wheels up.
While that sounds fine on the surface, does that sort of succession ever happen? Does that level of QB (a TRUE blue-chip, supposedly "program-changing" prospect) ever come in and just sit for two years? Furthermore, how often do these succession plans actually work -- especially when we're not just dealing with two variables (one veteran QB and one young buck) but, rather, three very serious ones (one "veteran" and two clearly qualified suitors underneath him)?
Let's look at the TRUE blue-chip QB landscape going back to 2010 to see just how the Arch Manning-level of QB prospect has come into his respective situation and fared. I say the list goes back to 2010 because the 2011 and 2010 recruiting classes, from all I could tell, did not have as strong blue-chip talent at the top of the Rivals rankings among QBs.
True Blue-Chip High School QB Prospects Since 2010
2021
Quinn Ewers (No.1 overall)
Committed to: Ohio State
Redshirt: Yes
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: CJ Stroud (RS FR)
Season they became starting QB: Never
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: No
Notes: Ewers, of course, transferred to Texas after a weird start at Ohio State where it became obvious he was a good ways behind redshirt freshman CJ Stroud (a Top 2 pick in the NFL draft in 2023). Ewers is now entering his second season as starter at Texas, and is on pace to be an NFL draft pick following the 2023 season despite a lack of commanding on-field success thus far in his college career.
Caleb Williams (No.6 overall)
Committed to: Oklahoma
Redshirt: No
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Spencer Rattler
Season they became starting QB: First
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: Well ...
Notes: Williams, of course - again, transferred to USC to follow his coach Lincoln Riley after beating out Spencer Rattler (a fellow true blue-chip recruit) halfway through the season and never looking back. He did not transfer out of frustration or a lack of success, but rather to stay paired up with Riley and presumably collect more NIL money. Williams is widely thought of as the player who will be taken first overall in the 2024 NFL draft after three seasons in college.
2020
Bryce Young (No.2 overall)
Committed to: Alabama
Redshirt: No
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Mac Jones (JR)
Season they became starting QB: Second
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: Yes
Notes: Young did not redshirt, playing mop-up duty as a backup to Mac Jones (a first-round NFL pick that season), but went on to start his sophomore and junior seasons, once winning the Heisman Trophy and eventually becoming the first pick in the draft.
DJ Uigalelei (No.3 overall)
Committed to: Clemson
Redshirt: Yes
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Trevor Lawrence (JR)
Season they became starting QB: Second
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: No
Notes: Ugalelei redshirted his freshman season behind fellow true blue-chip QB Trevor Lawrence, but stepped into his starting role the next year and never truly lived up to the recruiting hype at Clemson and was benched in favor of Cade Klubnik (another fellow true blue-chip QB from the 2022 class). Ugalelei has now transferred to Oregon State.
2019
Spencer Rattler (No.13 overall)
Committed to: Oklahoma
Redshirt: Yes
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Jalen Hurts (SR)
Season they became starting QB: Second
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: No
Notes: Rattler redshirted behind senior transfer and eventual NFL star Jalen Hurts for one season before taking over the starting role in 2020, where he led the eventual No.8-ranked Sooners to a Big 12 Championship. The next year, he was benched during a meltdown against Texas where fellow true blue chip QB Caleb Williams came in to take the job. Rattler transferred to South Carolina.
2018
Trevor Lawrence (No.1 overall)
Committed to: Clemson
Redshirt: No
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Kelly Bryant (SR)
Season they became starting QB: First
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: Yes
Notes: Lawrence was a golden boy, taking over from Day 1 and becoming the first-overall pick in the draft after three seasons at the helm.
Justin Fields (No.2 overall)
Committed to: Georgia
Redshirt: No
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Jake Fromm (SO)
Season they became starting QB: Never
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: No
Notes: Fields did not beat out Fromm during his freshman season at Georgia and immediately elected to transfer to Ohio State where he started for two seasons before becoming a first-round NFL draft pick.
JT Daniels (No.4 overall)
Committed to: USC
Redshirt: No
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Matt Fink (SO), Jack Sears (FR)
Season they became starting QB: First
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: No
Notes: I don't know how anyone could have planned what happened with Daniels, who started as a freshman at USC and went 5-7, tore his ACL in his second season, then entered the transfer portal. Then he transferred to Georgia, then West Virginia and now Rice as a sixth-year senior.
2017
Davis Mills (No.10 overall)
Committed to: Stanford
Redshirt: Yes
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: KJ Costello (SO)
Season they became starting QB: Third*
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: Yes
Notes: Mills redshirted, then was backup to Costello, then in his third season, became the starter for most of the season as a result of a Costello injury, but didn't let go of the job. In 2020, the PAC-12 had a shortened season due to coronavirus where Mills started before getting drafted in the early third round by the Houston Texans.
2016
Shea Patterson (No.3 overall)
Committed to: Ole Miss
Redshirt: Yes
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Chad Kelly (SR)
Season they became starting QB: Second*
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: No
Notes: Patterson technically became starter for the final games of the 2016 season when Chad Kelly tore his ACL, but wasn't named the official starter until 2017 where he started out well but tore his own PCL and missed the rest of the season before transferring to Michigan and going on to a career in the Canadian Football League.
Jacob Eason (No.7 overall)
Committed to: Georgia
Redshirt: No
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Greyson Lambert (SR)
Season they became starting QB: First
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: No
Notes: Eason did not win the starting job to start the 2016 season, but Lambert did get benched for the young star recruit early in the season and Eason led the team as starter to an 8-5 season. The following year, he was injured in the first week of the year as starter, and Jake Fromm took the job and didn't look back. Eason transferred for one season to Washington before being drafted in the fourth round by the Indianapolis Colts in the 2020 NFL draft.
2015
Josh Rosen (No.2 overall)
Committed to: UCLA
Redshirt: No
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Jerry Neuheisel (JR)
Season they became starting QB: First
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: Yes
Notes: Rosen had a dream career at UCLA (outside of a sophomore season shoulder injury) starting for three seasons before becoming a first-round NFL draft pick.
2014
Kyle Allen (No.7 overall)
Committed to: Texas A&M
Redshirt: No
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Kenny Hill (SO)
Season they became starting QB: First
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: No
Notes: Allen did not start the season as the starter as a freshman, but the competition was opened up in practice during a three-game losing streak and Allen took the reins then, finishing with a 3-2 record and setting up to be the undisputed starter for 2015. Allen started off the 2015 season hot, but then imploded in spectacular fashion and got benched for then-freshman Kyler Murray. Allen would then transfer to Houston before going on to a long NFL career as a journeyman backup.
2013
Max Browne (No.7 overall)
Committed to: USC
Redshirt: Yes
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: Cody Kessler (JR)
Season they became starting QB: Third*
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: No
Notes: Max Browne, of all these guys, looks like the worst eval by Rivals. He couldn't beat out Cody Kessler for two seasons at USC, then when finally getting his opportunity in his third to enter as starter, he was beaten out after two games by then-redshirt-freshman Sam Darnold. Browne went on to transfer to Pitt and was beaten out there as well. He never played in the NFL.
2012
Jameis Winston (No.10 overall)
Committed to: Florida State
Redshirt: Yes
Notable QBs on the roster during freshman season: EJ Manuel (JR)
Season they became starting QB: Second
Did things go as optimistically planned by the player and school?: Yes
Notes: Things went about as perfectly for a QB prospect as possible. One year redshirting behind a stud veteran QB, then two years of excellent play, leading FSU to a national championship, winning a Heisman Trophy and becoming the first-overall pick in the draft.
- Only 5 among 15 of these uber-elite QB prospects had careers that finished as optimistically planned at the original school they committed to.
- If we're talking about best-case scenarios among guys who didn't get named a starter until their third season at the school they committed to, we're looking at a Davis Mills-like career arc.
- Of the cream-of-the-crop H.S. signal callers, 7 of 15 redshirted. The dream redshirt scenario is obviously a Jameis Winston-like career arc.
- Of this group of players who redshirted, only 2 of 7 finished their careers at the school they committed to as optimistically planned (Mills and Winston). That's a 28.6% success rate, which on an admittedly miniscule sample, is close to the same as the 33% success-rate across the spectrum.
- Caleb Williams is sort of his own case as it's unprecedented for a HC to just up and leave and take his star QB with him. Of course, that was in no one's plans.
- But if we leaves Williams out of it, it's not like the group of guys that didn't redshirt all came up aces, either. Only 3 of those 7 (Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence and Josh Rosen) finished their careers at the schools they committed to as optimistically planned. It's not a lot better, but it's been a little bit better over the last decade-plus to come in and start right out of the gate.
- What about guys who entered college behind a good QB already in place? We'll define a "good" QB as being a player that was either one that was eventually selected in the NFL draft and/or a TRUE blue-chip prospect. The situation that Manning is technically in behind Ewers if we bake in the presumption that Ewers will eventually be an NFL draft pick. Those players/situations were: Ewers/Stroud, Williams/Rattler, Young/Jones, Ugalelei/Lawrence, Rattler/Hurts, Fields/Fromm, Patterson/Kelly, Browne/Kessler and Winston/Manuel. If we leave out Williams, since obviously he was a good player for OU, but just didn't stay, then the only situations since 2010 where a super-elite talent came in behind what we define as a "good" QB that ended up as optimistically planned for the player/school were Bryce Young and Jameis Winston. Two out of 9.
This is not to cast doubt on Manning's future at Texas by any means. What it shows most is that doubt should certainly be cast on self-assured plan-making in this realm. Even plans that seem locked-in and air-tight from the start don't always go as initially envisioned. Guys get hurt, the unexpected happens. In the case of Texas for this season, the fanbase shouldn't be surprised by anything.
What was that thing Mike Tyson said about plans and what happens to the people who pretend to have them, anyway?
