Daily Short #32, July 27th, 2017: Live from DKR
For the next hour and a half, I'll answer any questions you have about the Longhorns football team, fantasy football, my writing, fishing, cooking, breakfast tacos, BBQ, parenting or life in general. I have a doctors appointment near campus at 10:30 am, so I figured no place better to write this "chat column" for the day than inside the North End Zone at DKR where there's a chance I could kill two birds with one stone via snooping or bumping into anyone with ties to the team.
Ask the questions in this thread and I'll edit the original post to include them along with my responses so people can read the content easily once the chat portion is over at 10am.
Let's GO.
@Kevcdallas - I'm not sure I see a 220-pounder who's defining attribute is speed as the starting mike linebacker in this system. Not only is he a more sideline-to-sideline type of athlete than a downhill thumper, he's also a JUCO transfer who's behind the rest on knowing the calls and how to lead the defensive group. I think it is wishful thinking among his superfans that he'll come in and start at the MLB next to Jefferson at the WLB. I think his best chance of contributing is to be versatile enough to back up both Jefferson at the will and Hughes/McCulloch at the B-Backer (OLB) and bide his time until something can open up among those two positions. Clearly, he has a lot of upside, but to get into this rotation, you're going to have to prove quite a bit. The idea of anointing a player like Johnson as a starter based on JUCO film alone is preposterous.
@Tschneider2 - I gave the Deep Dig podcast 20 episodes to gauge response and I was unable to convince even over 1% of listeners to leave a positive review and/or rating in iTunes despite constant pleading. For something that takes a bit of time to create and produce, I need to be able to eventually monetize it. To monetize it, I need provable, quantifiable metrics and over 99% of my audience seemed unwilling to make the 15-20 second one-time commitment to give me that. I certainly appreciate all those who did.
I may re-visit the idea of a solo pod at some point, but the Deep Dig as an entity will be undergoing some significant changes this season that I'm sure I'll have to discuss at some point. I'm unsure that any new iteration of the pod would ever be the exact same as that one.
@Kevcdallas - It's going to be hard to unseat Malcolm Roach as an outright "starter" and the move to a 3-4 base defense was probably the most detrimental to Omenihu's playing time of anyone else as a guy who's always been projected to fill out to a prototypical 4-3 DE body-type. With that said, I could easily see situational football dictating Orlando using a player like Ford or Nelson at the nose with Roach at one end and Omenihu at the other on passing downs.
In short, I think, barring an injury to Roach, that the easiest way for Omenihu to gain impact-player status is by maximizing these opportunities early and making this sort of two "true"-DE sets with one DT aligned at the nose something the staff wants to use more frequently as a sub-package.
@Seaflea23 - Yes, it is fine for now, but I don't mind people tapping their feet a bit in regard to 2018 OL/DL recruiting. Forecasting into the future, you can begin to maybe spot a few troublesome areas barring outstanding development from a few unforeseen sources (which is certainly possible).
@treydey - If they are less than 9 7/8" inches, I'll be shocked.
@Xbeehookem - In 2017? Maybe he can take a backup's job. Someone like Eric Cuffee or Donovan Duvernay. But unless there is a rash of injuries or players simply falling out of favor with the staff, he stands little to no chance of taking a starting CB job. Thompson may be a nice player for Texas one day and I've heard he's been better than advertised, but pegging him to come out of 2017 as a starter is extremely unlikely.
@LonghornsLegend - If Davante Davis, Holton Hill or Kris Boyd had huge seasons, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if any one of them declared early. All have attributes NFL teams would covet if paired with a huge coming-out party as a junior.
@ClassicSheen - Believe it or not, I think the powers-that-be at Texas would have made the idiotic decision to bring back Strong had he managed to win one of those final two games -- or at the very least, two of the final three. So, pretty close. Texas fans got lucky that team was so awful last year.
@JustHereForTheNachos - LOL. OB Radio listener, I see.
As for linking the the articles, I can start doing that in the Friday column, sure.
@rjenk - I think they'll be fine. It will get sorted out during camp, but I expect competition between Armanti Foreman, Reggie Hemphilll-Mapps, Toneil Carter, Devin Duvernay, Kris Boyd and Jerrod Heard.
@ginos22000 - There is a scholarship board that @Suchomel manages, but I don't know where it's located on the site.
I think Covey is a little better than people would expect, but in case of disaster with Buechele and Ehlinger, I think you'd see a mix of Covey with pretty heavy doses of the Jerrod Heard package at QB. I don't think we'll ever Josh Covey in a role where he's single-handedly looking to lead the team to victory in a backup capacity.
@mackbrown - Peterson currently has a 6th-round ADP in 12-team leagues which may be a little too rich for my blood in a situation where he's going to be splitting time with Mark Ingram. However, in the event of an injury to Ingram (which is clearly a good possibility), he would of course be a monster steal. I just don't want a guy I draft as my RB2 or even my primary flex option to be a player who's productivity is dependent on another person getting injured. I think AP can have standalone value in a RBBC with Ingram, but not 6th-round standalone value. It's fair that the possibility of an Ingram injury is baked into that ADP but I don't see myself or users of my products at RosterWatch having too much exposure this season. Too many other options out there in the same range which come with more security of initial role and I want to get off to a fast start first and foremost.
@LiveattheOasis - It's impossible for me to peg Warren as a 1,000-yard rusher until I can see him stay healthy and also see him look like a dynamic weapon for a sustained period of the season versus all kinds of competition and not just cupcakes. My expectation is a committee approach where Toneil Carter will be more involved than most are anticipating.
@Fergi700
Toneil Carter
Armanti Foreman
Jeffrey McCulloch
Deshon Elliott
Jake McMillon
@randoke - All I can say specifically is that he is maniacal about them. No cameras or reporting during special teams periods of open practice and he sits in on every special teams meeting. He actually handles punt team personally and has even given one of his QC coaches the job of overseeing the quality control aspect of this phase exclusively. If you are scarred from Strong's staff lack of attention to detail in this phase of the game, the approach under Herman should be refreshing as it is a complete and total 180.
@GameOfThrows - It will be hard as the scale is a little different now than it was when I started (I used to separate out the run and pass portions and would say that a series of 90 scores over an observed period of their last season in college in either portion would indicate first-round status). Now that it is combined with run and pass in one socre, those 90s that Jake Matthews and others got might be more like 88s with the grades averaged between run and pass. With that said, I think Williams will get up there at some point. If he's getting 87s or something like that regularly, he's going to go in the first round. If he scores out with 90s, he'll sure be a Top 5 pick.
@jpkg21 - Great team, I'm not worried about any of them busting outside of Witten who I don't expect too much from (and neither are you I'm sure).
As for rookie TEs, they rarely have an impact in Year 1. Hunter Henry was an exception last season but was highly TD dependent. TE is one of the hardest NFL transitions but if I'm gambling on one to have immediate impact it is most certainly OJ Howard.
Top 5 rookie RBs based on IMMEDIATE impact? For dynasty I'd say
Fournette
Mixon
OR
McCaffrey
Perine
Kareem Hunt
OR
D'Onta
For the next hour and a half, I'll answer any questions you have about the Longhorns football team, fantasy football, my writing, fishing, cooking, breakfast tacos, BBQ, parenting or life in general. I have a doctors appointment near campus at 10:30 am, so I figured no place better to write this "chat column" for the day than inside the North End Zone at DKR where there's a chance I could kill two birds with one stone via snooping or bumping into anyone with ties to the team.
Ask the questions in this thread and I'll edit the original post to include them along with my responses so people can read the content easily once the chat portion is over at 10am.
Let's GO.
@Kevcdallas - I'm not sure I see a 220-pounder who's defining attribute is speed as the starting mike linebacker in this system. Not only is he a more sideline-to-sideline type of athlete than a downhill thumper, he's also a JUCO transfer who's behind the rest on knowing the calls and how to lead the defensive group. I think it is wishful thinking among his superfans that he'll come in and start at the MLB next to Jefferson at the WLB. I think his best chance of contributing is to be versatile enough to back up both Jefferson at the will and Hughes/McCulloch at the B-Backer (OLB) and bide his time until something can open up among those two positions. Clearly, he has a lot of upside, but to get into this rotation, you're going to have to prove quite a bit. The idea of anointing a player like Johnson as a starter based on JUCO film alone is preposterous.
@Tschneider2 - I gave the Deep Dig podcast 20 episodes to gauge response and I was unable to convince even over 1% of listeners to leave a positive review and/or rating in iTunes despite constant pleading. For something that takes a bit of time to create and produce, I need to be able to eventually monetize it. To monetize it, I need provable, quantifiable metrics and over 99% of my audience seemed unwilling to make the 15-20 second one-time commitment to give me that. I certainly appreciate all those who did.
I may re-visit the idea of a solo pod at some point, but the Deep Dig as an entity will be undergoing some significant changes this season that I'm sure I'll have to discuss at some point. I'm unsure that any new iteration of the pod would ever be the exact same as that one.
@Kevcdallas - It's going to be hard to unseat Malcolm Roach as an outright "starter" and the move to a 3-4 base defense was probably the most detrimental to Omenihu's playing time of anyone else as a guy who's always been projected to fill out to a prototypical 4-3 DE body-type. With that said, I could easily see situational football dictating Orlando using a player like Ford or Nelson at the nose with Roach at one end and Omenihu at the other on passing downs.
In short, I think, barring an injury to Roach, that the easiest way for Omenihu to gain impact-player status is by maximizing these opportunities early and making this sort of two "true"-DE sets with one DT aligned at the nose something the staff wants to use more frequently as a sub-package.
@Seaflea23 - Yes, it is fine for now, but I don't mind people tapping their feet a bit in regard to 2018 OL/DL recruiting. Forecasting into the future, you can begin to maybe spot a few troublesome areas barring outstanding development from a few unforeseen sources (which is certainly possible).
@treydey - If they are less than 9 7/8" inches, I'll be shocked.
@Xbeehookem - In 2017? Maybe he can take a backup's job. Someone like Eric Cuffee or Donovan Duvernay. But unless there is a rash of injuries or players simply falling out of favor with the staff, he stands little to no chance of taking a starting CB job. Thompson may be a nice player for Texas one day and I've heard he's been better than advertised, but pegging him to come out of 2017 as a starter is extremely unlikely.
@LonghornsLegend - If Davante Davis, Holton Hill or Kris Boyd had huge seasons, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if any one of them declared early. All have attributes NFL teams would covet if paired with a huge coming-out party as a junior.
@ClassicSheen - Believe it or not, I think the powers-that-be at Texas would have made the idiotic decision to bring back Strong had he managed to win one of those final two games -- or at the very least, two of the final three. So, pretty close. Texas fans got lucky that team was so awful last year.
@JustHereForTheNachos - LOL. OB Radio listener, I see.
As for linking the the articles, I can start doing that in the Friday column, sure.
@rjenk - I think they'll be fine. It will get sorted out during camp, but I expect competition between Armanti Foreman, Reggie Hemphilll-Mapps, Toneil Carter, Devin Duvernay, Kris Boyd and Jerrod Heard.
@ginos22000 - There is a scholarship board that @Suchomel manages, but I don't know where it's located on the site.
I think Covey is a little better than people would expect, but in case of disaster with Buechele and Ehlinger, I think you'd see a mix of Covey with pretty heavy doses of the Jerrod Heard package at QB. I don't think we'll ever Josh Covey in a role where he's single-handedly looking to lead the team to victory in a backup capacity.
@mackbrown - Peterson currently has a 6th-round ADP in 12-team leagues which may be a little too rich for my blood in a situation where he's going to be splitting time with Mark Ingram. However, in the event of an injury to Ingram (which is clearly a good possibility), he would of course be a monster steal. I just don't want a guy I draft as my RB2 or even my primary flex option to be a player who's productivity is dependent on another person getting injured. I think AP can have standalone value in a RBBC with Ingram, but not 6th-round standalone value. It's fair that the possibility of an Ingram injury is baked into that ADP but I don't see myself or users of my products at RosterWatch having too much exposure this season. Too many other options out there in the same range which come with more security of initial role and I want to get off to a fast start first and foremost.
@LiveattheOasis - It's impossible for me to peg Warren as a 1,000-yard rusher until I can see him stay healthy and also see him look like a dynamic weapon for a sustained period of the season versus all kinds of competition and not just cupcakes. My expectation is a committee approach where Toneil Carter will be more involved than most are anticipating.
@Fergi700
Toneil Carter
Armanti Foreman
Jeffrey McCulloch
Deshon Elliott
Jake McMillon
@randoke - All I can say specifically is that he is maniacal about them. No cameras or reporting during special teams periods of open practice and he sits in on every special teams meeting. He actually handles punt team personally and has even given one of his QC coaches the job of overseeing the quality control aspect of this phase exclusively. If you are scarred from Strong's staff lack of attention to detail in this phase of the game, the approach under Herman should be refreshing as it is a complete and total 180.
@GameOfThrows - It will be hard as the scale is a little different now than it was when I started (I used to separate out the run and pass portions and would say that a series of 90 scores over an observed period of their last season in college in either portion would indicate first-round status). Now that it is combined with run and pass in one socre, those 90s that Jake Matthews and others got might be more like 88s with the grades averaged between run and pass. With that said, I think Williams will get up there at some point. If he's getting 87s or something like that regularly, he's going to go in the first round. If he scores out with 90s, he'll sure be a Top 5 pick.
@jpkg21 - Great team, I'm not worried about any of them busting outside of Witten who I don't expect too much from (and neither are you I'm sure).
As for rookie TEs, they rarely have an impact in Year 1. Hunter Henry was an exception last season but was highly TD dependent. TE is one of the hardest NFL transitions but if I'm gambling on one to have immediate impact it is most certainly OJ Howard.
Top 5 rookie RBs based on IMMEDIATE impact? For dynasty I'd say
Fournette
Mixon
OR
McCaffrey
Perine
Kareem Hunt
OR
D'Onta
