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*****
San Jose State opened up its 2023 season against Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans. After reviewing that game -- and new Texas transfer CB Jay'Vion Cole, I've seen enough.
Like one of those political commentators on cable news during the election who tells you poll results from certain counties ... then can somehow "call" a state for one candidate or the other without even having the benefit of knowing how a greater majority of the electorate have cast their ballots. They just sort of know how things are going to go.
Cole - SJSU's undoubted best DB - lines up almost exclusively on the right side of the SJSU defense which allowed him to play at both the boundary (short) side (62% of snaps versus USC) and the field (wide) side (38% of snaps versus USC). He moves well in all directions, he's good in press coverage and generally very aggressive in run-support. So much so that the one hickey from the USC game was his two missed tackles as he was flying in to try for open-field tackles in run-support. When he gets there and makes the play (he did have 3 solo tackles and one assist versus the Trojans) he brings a thump. He laid a big stick on USC RB (and current Green Bay Packer rookie) Marshawn Lloyd, who, despite playing with real speed, packs a definite wallop at 220 pounds. Later in the game, Cole corralled Caleb Williams on a QB scramble where the announcers talked about what a big hit it was and expressed concern about Williams favoring his left thigh for a bit afterward.
That wasn't what was most impressive about how he matched up versus the future No.1 pick in the NFL draft, though. What was most impressive is that Caleb Williams really didn't want any part of Cole in the passing game. Utilizing a stable of really good wide receivers like Brenden Rice (Jerry Rice's son and a Day 3 pick of the Chargers a few weeks ago), Tahj Washington (another Day 3 pick to the Dolphins), Zachariah Branch (an all-juice stick of dynamite and future NFL player) and others, Caleb Williams and the USC QBs who eventually came in during garbage time went for 341 yards through the air against the SJSU defense and Cole allowed zero of those yards.
Williams only targeted Cole in coverage once, and on that play, Cole generated a PBU. On three separate occasions, Cole was in coverage on what appeared to be Williams' first read and forced Williams further into his progression -- on two of these occasions leading to coverage sacks. In all, per the Deep Dig scoring formula in this game, Cole -- even given the fact that he had two missed tackles and didn't have a big, one-off-type play like an interception -- still managed to generate production once every 8.19 snaps. For reference versus Texas cornerbacks in 2023, this is how they stood in that efficiency metric. (of qualifiers who played at least 100 snaps):
Ryan Watts: 11.92
Malik Muhammad: 12.75
Terrence Brooks: 14.19
Gavin Holmes: 18.94
Historically (dating back to 2015) here's where Cole's efficiency versus his toughest 2023 opponent stacks up against all Texas defensive players through their respective seasons in the efficiency metric. The list also includes samples from DL transfers Bill Norton and Tiaoalii Savea from Arizona:
Click Image to Enlarge
PFF is often cockamamie, but it's worth noting they're big on Cole as well. Of FBS corners who played at least 50% of their team's coverage snaps in 2023 (226 total players), here's how PFF had him stacked up:
- 26th out of 226 in PFF coverage grade
- 43rd of 226 in reception percentage allowed (49.1%)
- 4th of 226 in yards after catch allowed (37)
- 18th of 226 in longest completion allowed (28 yards)
- 51st of 226 in forced incompletion percentage (17%)
- T-19th of 226 in coverage TDs allowed (1)
- 17th of 226 in opposing NFL passer rating when targeted (49.0)
- 57th of 226 in coverage snaps/reception allowed (14)
- 46th of 226 in pass-play tackling run-stops (10)
Cole will be an upgrade on Terrence Brooks and certainly represents (at the very least) a significant threat to Gavin Holmes and/or Kobe Black (as he learns to be a college athlete) or even Jahdae Barron (should they consider moving him outside) to be the starter opposite Manny Muhammad in 2024. It's actually the most likely scenario.
