In general, I would like to think I’m a pretty optimistic kind of guy. I tend to believe things will always work out. Even when they don’t, I try to see the positives that can come out of adversity (and there are always positives to be found).
However, those rules don’t apply to my sports fandom. I will immediately pucker up and assume the worst at the slightest hint of adversity with my favorite teams. Perhaps I’m just too emotionally invested to be level headed?
But as soon as the script flips back to being good, then I’m a cheerful fella to be around while rooting on the old home team.
With that being said, I have been a little split about my outlook for this weekend’s Super Regional matchup against East Carolina and so I have decided to take a look at some positives and negatives for the upcoming series.
REASON TO BE POSITIVE:
Texas comes into the series on a bit of a hot streak. The Horns (44-19) swept the Austin regional in fairly convincing fashion. They’ve also won 14 of their last 17 games since being swept by Oklahoma State at home. That includes taking two out of three games against the Cowboys during the Big XII conference tournament.
REASON TO BE NEGATIVE:
The game is being played on the road. Texas is a pedestrian 13-9 on the road this season. That includes an abysmal 2-3 record in the Carolinas (although those games were in the Southern variety of Carolinas as opposed to the Northern variety which is where this weekend’s games will be played). The last two true road series saw the Horns lose two out of three to Kansas State (not a typo) but then win two out of three from West Virginia. Technically, they also played UTRGV on the road in between those series but that was as almost as much of a home crowd in Edinburg as you would see at Disch-Falk Field. Every road game since then has been to neutral sites … which this weekend will definitely not be a neutral site.
REASON TO BE POSITIVE:
Ivan Melendez! The redshirt junior is the Collegiate Baseball Player of the Year and soon to be Golden Spikes award winner. The Longhorns first baseman, also known as El Gato Grande to those in the know, is hitting .404 (10th best in the country) with 30 home runs and 90 RBI (both of which lead the nation). In fact, Melendez is the first collegiate baseball player since Kris Bryant in 2013 to hit 30 HRs in a season. In short, he’s the best in the game and when you have the best in the game on your team, that’s a pretty darn good reason to be optimistic.
REASON TO BE NEGATIVE:
Carter Spivey. The junior righty is the American Athletic Conference Pitcher of the Year … as a reliever. You don’t see that every day. Spivey will throw a fastball, cutter and slider and they’re all nasty. Even though he’s a reliever, he was rolled out as the starter in Monday’s win or go home game seven of the regional this weekend. He took the mound with a plan, be aggressive so that his team and the fans would be into the game from the get-go. “That was kind of my whole thought process, to get the boys in the dugout, so we can go swing it, and get the fans engaged,” Spivey said. “Make Clark-LeClair the loudest place on earth.”
REASON TO BE POSITIVE:
Pete Hansen. ECU may have their ace reliever but Texas’ ace starter has been there before and he knows a thing or two about winning big games. Hansen is 11-1 on the season with a 3.08 ERA. But as good as he’s been so far, Hansen said last week that he feels like he’s just now starting to peak. You have to like Texas’ chances of jumping out to a 1-0 lead in the super regional with him taking the mound at noon on Friday (11:00 am CST).
REASON TO BE NEGATIVE:
ECU is battle tested. The Pirates have faced Campbell, North Carolina, Michigan, Maryland, Virginia Tech, VCU, Virginia and Coastal Carolina (all teams that made the playoffs). Heading into the regional, Eastern Carolina had won 20 games in a row. So as good as Texas is, the East Carolina players will not be shaking in their boots at the prospect of going up against the Horns. In fact, that will probably be a motivating factor.
REASON TO BE POSITIVE:
Despite East Carolina having played a lot of good teams, they’re only 4-8 when facing teams in the top 50 of the RPI.
REASON TO BE NEGATIVE:
Texas’ bullpen. The pen has led to a number of losses this year and East Carolina has a number of hitters who can punish mistakes. Bryson Worrell was the MVP of the Greenville Regional and is hitting .324 on the season with 18 home runs.
REASON TO BE POSITIVE:
Texas’ bullpen. Despite the season-long struggles, the bullpen was nothing short of fantastic in the regional clinching matchup against Air Force last weekend. Travis Sthele combined with Jared Southard, Andre Duplantier and Lebarron Johnson to allow only six hits and one run against the Falcons. And before you dismiss that as “it’s just Air Force,” the Falcons were the eighth-best hitting team in the country (by batting average) coming into the series while East Carolina ranks 121st. So yeah, I think Texas’ bullpen could actually help the team this weekend.
So there you go … you’ve now got plenty of reasons to be optimistic heading into the Supers … and I’ve given you plenty to ratchet up your anxiety if you tend to lean towards the darker side of life.
TOO EARLY TO LOOK AHEAD?
No matter what happens the rest of the way, Texas could probably use some help on the mound next season … and that help may just come from a guy who just left Austin.
Air Force’s Paul Skenes has entered the transfer portal. The All-American is 10-3 on the season with a 2.73 ERA.
But wait! There’s more! He also doubles as the Falcons’ starting catcher when he’s not on the mound and is hitting .314 with 13 homers on the season. In other words, he can baseball real good.
Skenes will have a pretty good feel for UT and Austin after facing the Horns four times this year. And Texas fans may have unknowingly helped their cause by chanting “USA” after eliminating the Falcons this weekend. The Air Force players returned the favor by standing at parade rest behind the UT players while the Eyes of Texas was played after the game. It really was a special moment.
Skenes can obviously help this team on the mound and there will be room for him as a starter should he pick Texas. The only real question is where does he play in the field when he’s not pitching? It’s possible Silas Ardoin goes pro after this season but the redshirt sophomore still has eligibility if he doesn’t like his draft position and comes back next year.
Maybe Skenes would be fine switching positions (1B will be open with Melendez moving on) or being a DH? Maybe it’s not that big of a deal to Skenes if he plays the field at all? You have to believe Skenes’ MLB future is as a pitcher so he may be ready to focus on that and not worry about hitting.
And just in case you're wondering if there is interest from Texas, a quick look at Paul Skenes' Twitter followers and you'll see quite a bit of Longhorns including Longhorn assistants Sean Allen and Phillip Miller as well as Director of Player Development Carli Todd. You'll also find the Occupy Left Field Foundation in his followers section...that's the collective that spearheads NIL efforts focused on UT baseball.
FROM HORSEHIDE TO PIGSKIN:
In need of some positivity on the football front? Ok, how about this, heading into summer workouts, Texas Head Coach Steve Sarkisian said Hudson Card and Quinn Ewers are “ahead of schedule” this year compared to where Card and Casey Thompson were last year.
That doesn’t blow you away? Maybe it should.
Casey Thompson looked like a world beater after taking over for Card in the Arkansas loss.
| COMPLETIONS/ATTEMPTS | YARDS | TOUCHDOWNS | INTERCEPTIONS | RATING | |
| RICE | 15/18 | 164 | 2 | 1 | 185.4 |
| TEXAS TECH | 18/23 | 303 | 5 | 1 | 252 |
| TCU | 12/22 | 142 | 1 | 1 | 114.7 |
| OU | 20/34 | 388 | 5 | 0 | 203.2 |
But then Thompson injured his thumb in the first half of the OU game and Texas’ slide began.
| COMPLETIONS/ATTEMPTS | YARDS | TOUCHDOWNS | INTERCEPTIONS | RATING | |
| OKLAHOMA STATE | 15/27 | 179 | 1 | 2 | 106.7 |
| BAYLOR | 23/38 | 280 | 2 | 1 | 134.5 |
| IOWA STATE | 2/6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 36.1 |
| KANSAS | 30/43 | 358 | 6 | 1 | 181.1 |
| WEST VIRGINIA | 4/14 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 31.7 |
| KANSAS STATE | 17/23 | 170 | 1 | 1 | 141.6 |
If this is what his thumb looked like in December, can you imagine what it felt like while he was starting games in October and November?
The point is, Thompson was playing very well before the injury and he played like poop after the injury. But I don’t care if you’re Casey Thompson or Patrick Mahomes, you need your thumb to effectively throw the ball and that thumb injury was a big contributing factor to the six-game losing streak.
So, if Thompson was on track (before the injury) to have a really good season … and both Quinn Ewers and Hudson Card are ahead of where Thompson was last year … then there is reason to be optimistic about the quarterback play for UT this upcoming season.
But then again …as @Anwar Richardson will tell you … this is exactly the kind of thing you write during the summer before any of the games are played. Check back in with me in November and let’s see how this held up.
In the meantime, drink up the Kool-Aid because I'm dishing it out.
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