Channel:
ESPN2
Time:
Saturday, Feb 11, 11AM CST
***
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Primer.
The last time these two teams met, Texas pulled off a road victory over the Mountaineers, 69-61, heading into a hostile environment and playing a really good second half of basketball after trailing in the first (sound familiar?). While it's undoubtedly better to be a second-half team versus a first-half iteration, it's still not a great habit.Despite being just 14-9, West Virginia has got the juice lately, winners of four of their last five, including wins over 15th-ranked Auburn and 11th-ranked Iowa State, and a monster, 32-point domination of Oklahoma. Their only loss in this stretch was a four-point contest on the road to TCU, who was ranked 15th at the time and is undoubtedly a good squad.
This version of West Virginia is not the same as the one Texas saw a few weeks ago. Given, Texas now has home court advantage, which is very legitimate in the new building. The star of the show in that first matchup was Marcus Carr (23 points) with help from Dylan Disu (13 points).
For the Mountaineers, Kedrian Johnson, a product of South Oak Cliff High School (TX), dropped 22 points on nine FG attempts, going 7/11 at the line and shooting 60% from deep. He did turn the ball over six times to just one assist. But I mean, that's what shooting guards are kind of for, right? A few turnovers being aggressive putting it on the deck? Scoring first?
Carr was still the superior player on that night, with half as many turnovers, two more assists, and two more rebounds – and of course, the W. It was a good win early on in a brutal Big 12 slate, but like I said earlier, this Mountaineer team is coming in hot – they've averaged 79.4 points per game in their last five.
West Virginia Offense.
NOTE: I'LL BE USING CONFERENCE NUMBERS IN BIG 12 MATCHUP PREVIEWS.The Mountaineers are a pretty balanced team, ranked sixth in points per game at 72.8, and ranked fourth in opponent points per game, 71.7. Offensively their main scoring option is transfer guard Erik Stevenson, a guy who isn't exactly efficient, but gets buckets for WV. He averages 13.1 points per, followed by you-know-who (Tre Mitchell) with 11.7.
Trailing these two are Kedrian Johnson (11.1 points) and Joe Toussaint with 10.3 as the leader in bench points per. The two additional starters next to Stevenson, Mitchell, and Johnson are 6'7 forward Emmit Matthews (7.7 points, 3.4 rebounds) and 6'10 big man Jimmy Bell (4.9 points, 5.4 rebounds).
West Virginia varies in its offensive sets, but runs some five-out motion offense, also known as an "open post" offense, which involves a ton of cutting over the "nail" point at the middle of the free throw line. Constantly, players cut from one wing to the other, crossing through this nail point, trying to create spacing for others as well as help shed defenders by confusing the defense and keeping them in, well, motion.
If the offense spots a player at the nail point, he can screen for the cutters. This style of offense often leads to balanced scoring, which makes sense when looking at the way the offense works. It also applies to this West Virginia team that has four players in double figures, but none over 14 points per game.
West Virginia's best weapon from outside is yes, the guy you're absolutely picturing – former Longhorn power forward Tre Mitchell, who hit a total of 15 threes in his entire, season-long Texas career. This year, he's already hit 26 on 66 attempts across the regular season, good for a really nice 39.4% from deep on about three attempts per game. Woulda been nice last year.
West Virginia excels in its offensive rebounding, first in the conference with 11.5 per game. This big of a number on the offensive end propels their ranking to first in the conference in overall rebounding. I'll discuss the rebounding a bit more later on in the piece, but jus know that it is elite.
While their offense wasn't great the last time Texas saw them, they've clearly got some juice flowing; the confidence will be high, and so will the energy. The 'Horns really have to stop the "dig a double-digit hole to start the game" Xbox Achievement and play two complete halves instead of just one.
West Virginia Defense.
NOTE: I'LL BE USING CONFERENCE NUMBERS IN BIG 12 MATCHUP PREVIEWS.Defensively, West Virginia has been solid in conference, sitting at fourth overall in opponent points per game at 71.7. This is interesting, considering their overall Big XII numbers don't pop off the page: they're last place in steals (4.7 per), fifth in blocks (4.0), fifth in turnovers forced (12.3). They are eighth in the league in defensive FG percentage, where the average opposing team is shooting 42.1%; they're also seventh in opponent three-point percentage.
I think breaking down WVU statistically is tough right now because of the ups and downs through which they've gone. Even during their impressive last few games, in which they've won four and lost one, they were still giving up 69.8 points. Luckily for them, their offense clicked at the right time, and like Will Ferrell in Old School, they went on a run.
Their leading blocker is coincidentally also Tre Mitchell, who averaged 1.5 blocks per game his sophomore year at UMass, is this year in conference play averaging one block per game, up on his 2023 season average of 0.7 per. Bell is the other starter tasked with some rim protection, and he's averaging 0.5 blocks and 4.5 boards in about 20 minutes per. Mohamed Wague and James Okonkwo are reserve big men that will get in the mix occasionally – they both play just about 11 minutes per game, combining for 1.7 blocks, 0.7 steals, 7.6. boards, and 6.9 points.
Their two leading stealers are Kedrian Johnson with 0.9 and Erik Stevenson with 0.8 steals per. Again, nothing eye-popping. The defense really hasn't been the key for this team in the last few games; not that it's been bad defense per se, just not as elite as the rest of the conference, which is speaking relatively.
What I mean by that is by KenPom measurements of adjusted defense, West Virginia is 39th in the country, landing them seventh in the Big XII in this category. It's arguably one of the strongest one-year iterations of a conference ever. So nationally, they play elite defense; in conference, they play below-average defense.
Key to the Game – Defensive Rebounding
I referenced earlier West Virginia's prowess of snagging offensive boards, where they sit in first in conference at 11.5 per. Mohamed Wague has an offensive rebounding percentage of 23%, which is very impressive, and he's not the only one who's elite in this category: Jimmy Bell is at 18% and James Okonkwo is at 17%. They are a very high-motor team that has pretty good athleticism as well.Texas has struggled against good rebounding squads this season. Sometimes it's due to lacking a true big, a go-to rebounder, but sometimes, they just lose focus and forget the basics of boxing out, leading to points on put-backs. In conference, Texas has had trouble rebounding to say the least: they rank last place in the conference in total rebounds and defensive rebounds, while finishing ninth in offensive rebounds.
More so than deep shooting, I think rebounding is this team's Achilles heel; the preseason complaints about not recruiting a true center who's 6'10+ seemed a bit overblown in my estimation, but it has developed itself into a problem for an otherwise really well-rounded team.
If West Virginia is going to come in and pull the upset, they will do it on the boards. If they get a ton of second-chance points, in the same way at least that has happened to Texas before this season, the 'Horns could absolutely choke a home game against a lower-level conference team.
Key to the Game – Attack the Rim (looking at you, Tyrese)
With the lacking amount of blocks from the stat sheet, you can get the idea that WV may be a team you can hunt at the rim. Tre Mitchell is their best big without a doubt, as he's averaging 1.1 blocks per game. Their other Bigs (Bell, Wague, Okonkwo) are all pretty solid defensive players at the rim themselves, but their issue is foul trouble.For example, none of these three players average more blocks than fouls, or are even really close. I know that's a difficult margin within which to gauge players, but it's generally a good view of their defensive impact. Wague and Okonkwo are kind of raw defensive guys who don't do much on offense, so WV won't be able to play them more than 10-12 minutes each, which is what they typically play anyway.
I like this is a bit of a bounce-back game for Tyrese Hunter's last...I don't know, 2023? His productivity has absolutely nosedived off of a cliff since the Gonzaga game on... December 1st. In the 18 games since this happened, he has scored in double digits just seven times, and has scored more than 13 points just once (against Kansas State, where he exploded for 29).
The graphic below illustrates his overall productivity after the Creighton matchup at the Moody Center. Far right on the picture are his points per each game: a lot of single digits.
It's pretty shocking to see the lack of development for a guy who has regressed this season after such a hot start. He also had just seven assists in the four-game stretch out of which Texas just came, so his lack of scoring is correlated with his passing game mentally.
As devoid of real analysis this next statement is going to sound, I frankly do not understand what is going on with Tyrese Hunter's scoring and assisting numbers. He passes up a lot of shots, he bails halfway on drives, turning around and kicking it back out, he won't attack the rack. His game looks completely stunted, as he had better numbers last season as a true freshman.
I'm not going to trash a guy who's a sophomore in college over a couple of months of so-so-to-bad performances, but it is very concerning that he seems to be going backwards in his development. I think Saturday morning would be a great opportunity against a weaker team (at home) to try to get some of his mojo back.
Prediction.
If you're a Texas fan that thinks this is going to be a cakewalk, you are sorely mistaken. I've demonstrated how much better West Virginia been recently, finding success with their offense in improving themselves over the last five matchups. That combined with their strength of rebounding being Texas' kryptonite, The Mountaineers are going to come in ready to go after losing on their home floor.Still, I think overall, Texas is just a better team in the majority of the categories. If they can keep the rebounding discrepancy under control and prevent a ton of second-chance points, I think Texas handles business here.
