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*****
Clearly, Washington has a very good football team.
In fact, recently, the Athletic (subscription required) was asked to rank the Top 5 NFL prospects on each of the four CFP teams, and in listing out the those top 5 the Huskies are looking to send to the league in 2024, the list didn't even get to star QB and Heisman Trophy finalist Michael Penix Jr. They have some players, for sure.
And they had those same players when Texas faced them in the Alamo Bowl last year. Yes, they've clearly all gotten a year of seasoning, and are a year better now than the Texas players who played in that game were a year ago. However, the difference between 2022 Washington and 2023 Washington is nowhere near the difference between 2022 Texas and 2023 Texas. You have to watch the game back to remind yourself of what a difference a year makes.
So, let's Remember the Alamo (Bowl) for a minute. These are the ways Texas is different in 2023 than it was in the 2022 Alamo Bowl:
- Xavier Worthy had a broken hand and played horribly. Worthy had one drop on a deep ball that was so egregious that Sark elected to go back to him again on the very next play (because surely he'd never drop two in a row like that) and sure enough, the second drop was even worse than the first. Xavier Worthy may have had a hiccup or two this season, but these two consecutive pass plays are worse than any of them individually. Two totally wasted dimes by Ewers. That doesn't happen in the 2023 season.
- Keilan Robinson was somehow forced into a lead back role. Just miserable. Texas may be without Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson in 2023 but they were also without those guys in the Alamo Bowl. Even Jonathan Brooks was still extremely limited with the sports hernia. To say Robinson couldn't get anything going would be an understatement. The run game was non-existent and made Texas completely one dimensional, even against a run-front that wasn't all that imposing. To think that UW will as easily shut down CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue and a lightning-strike change-of-pace (his proper role) in Keilan Robinson running behind a much-improved OL just because they limited Texas to 51 team rushing yards last year would be delusional and cockamamie.
- Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey filled in for Demarvion Overshown. Texas won't have any issues with players sitting out the final game of the season this year. You don't opt out when going for a championship. Take this into consideration: Anthony Hill is already better (at the very least, MUCH more efficient) than Demarvion Overshown was as a senior. That is not to diss Overshown, that is just to put things in context. Overshown played 653 snaps last year and generated 8.57% of the team's production (once every 8.01 snaps). And while Hill didn't play near as many snaps this season as Overshown did last (429), he had 7.72% of the production on a much better defense, and did so with much more efficiency per-snap (once every 6.24 snaps). We all know that Tucker-Dorsey is a downgrade from Overshown, and considering that Overshown can be argued to be a downgrade from Hill, well ....
- Jake Majors played miserably. Just miserable. Say what you will about Majors' career at Texas but this year, he's been good. Period. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone fails at times, even the best of the best, but when we boil it all down, Majors was more than just fine in 2023, he was actually good. He allowed disruption only once every 31.7 snaps on the season. He's one of the offense's most improved players. In the Alamo Bowl, he allowed 2 run-stuffs, one TFL and one QB pressure on 64 total snaps, good for once every 16. Majors has not played a game that bad since that very day.
- Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy had no connection. They aren't exactly Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley with their 2023 connection, so it's not exactly an epic mind-meld where they are finishing each other's sentences, but man ... you really have to go back and watch to remember how off the page these two were with each other that season. It's frustrating to watch back even now.
- The special teams play was sloppy. A busted protection package leading to a blocked punt. Jordan Whittington ran into the kicker. Keilan Robinson wasn't able to pin UW deep on a punt he should have downed at the one. An onside kick attempt that never had a chance. Can you think back on the 2023 season and conjure up a game that had so many missteps on special teams? In fact, the special teams (especially as Texas has begun to peak late in the season) have been a feather in this team's cap if nothing else.
- The RG position was in flux. It doesn't matter how coaches spin player rotations, you don't rotate in average players for awesome players. You don't even rotate in average players for pretty good players. Last year, both Cole Hutson and DJ Campbell were not even in that pretty good-category yet and they rotated all game as Hutson was returning from injury. While DJC has had his ups and downs this season, the highs have been terrific and so such rotation will be occurring this year.
- Casey Cain was the leading receiver and alpha at the X. Guys like Savion Red and Brennen Thompson were actually contributors at WR. Yes, Cain was only the leading receiver because he caught a useless last-second hail mary from Ewers as time expired but that isn't the point. The point is, do you see a difference between Adonai Mitchell, Johntay Cook and Deandre Moore and Casey Cain (transferring), Thompson (already transferred out) and Red (had to change positions)?
- Zero pass rush. Nothing against Ovie Oghuofo, but he brought zero in the pass-rush department in this game and the team simply didn't get the same pressure last year as it did in 2023 on the whole. In the Alamo Bowl, Oghuofo had 3 assisted tackles on 67 total snaps. Not an ounce of pressure from Oghuofo (and not much from anyone else, either), as had been the case all season. Does that sound like an average 2023 game to you?
- Unbelievably miserable run fits from the defensive line (and linebackers). This was the most galling to me. Just the piss-poor pad level. It happened through the game, but this is the run that really cemented in my mind just how far this team has come with it's run fits:
If you can't easily see what was so bad about this play, I broke it down in detail yesterday here on "Football with Friends" on the Orangebloods YouTube Channel. The clip below will take you directly to that discussion.
If anyone tells you this game is surely going to be a repeat of 2022, they may be right.
But the one thing you'll know for certain is that they haven't been paying attention.
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