Colin Simmons is coming to town.
The 5-star defensive end prospect from 6-A powerhouse Duncanville is planning to visit the 40 Acres this weekend (along with his mom), as he begins to narrow his list of schools down to the five that will receive official visits.
It would be surprising if the Longhorns don't land an official visit with Simmons because he's been quite open in recent months with projecting the Longhorns as a school that he has a very keen interest in, although LSU remains the current betting favorite.
One of the fascinating things that stands out about Simmons as a prospect is that for all of the bad-ass dominance he's displayed on the field (if you haven't seen his Hudl highlights, enjoy), he does fall into the dreaded Tweener category of a prospect.
What does it mean to be a "tweener" as a defensive end?
It means that you're 6-3 or under in height and less than 240 pounds in weight or both. With regards to Simmons, he's a bit of a super tweener because checks both boxes at 6-3 (possibly 6-2 and change), 225 pounds.
Why is any of this important?
Since 2002, only 17 prospects from the state of Texas have been named 4 or 5 stars at the defensive end position and fallen into the tweener category. Of the 14 that have completed their eligibility, only one proved to be both a major college success story. and a player drafted in the NFL. The two current tweener defensive ends from the state of Texas aren't making significant impacts, either.
The one prospect from the Lone Star State in the last 20 years that has been a major success?
Take a look at the full list of Texas tweeners since 2002:
2004: Alan Davis (6-2, 237 pounds/Signed with Oklahoma)
2005: Paul Freeney (6-3, 229 pounds/Signed with A&M)
2005: McKinner Dixon (6-3, 240 pounds/Signed with Texas Tech)
2006: Eddie Jones (6-3, 240 pounds/Signed with Texas)
2007: Richetti Jones (6-3, 234 pounds/Signed with Oklahoma State)
2007: Russell Carter (6-3, 230 pounds/Signed with Texas)
2007: Von Miller (6-3, 210 pounds/Signed with Texas A&M)
2007: Levar Brown (6-3, 240 pounds/Signed with Arizona)
2008: Andrew Wolridge (6-2, 235 pounds/Signed with Texas A&M)
2010: Jackson Jeffcoat (6-3, 230 pounds/Signed with Texas)
2010: Reggie Wilson (6-2, 240 pounds/Signed with Texas)
2013: Torrodney Prevot (6-3, 201 pounds/Signed with Oregon)
2014: Derick Roberson (6-3, 225 pounds/Signed with Texas
2016 Mark Jackson (6-3, 235 pounds/Signed with Oklahoma)
2018 Jarell Cherry (6-3, 226 pounds/Signed with LSU)
2020 Alec Bryant (6-3, 230 pounds/Signed with Virginia Tech)
2023 Colin Simmons (6-3, 225 pounds)
Interestingly enough, the only other players from that pile of names that earned five-star status and played in the NFL to some degree were former Texas defensive ends Jackson Jeffcoat and Eddie Jones. Both were undrafted players after enjoying solid college careers. Jeffcoat played a few seasons in the NFL, while Wilson was a practice squad player for a few years.
In order to get a true like for like historical value on him as a prospect, I decided to look at all of the five-star defensive ends tweeners that have been ranked since 2002.
There have been only been eight in total (not including Simmons) and only five have completed their eligibility. Here's the list of five-stars that fall into this category.
2006 Brandon Warren (6-2, 230 pounds/Signed with Florida State)
2006 Eddie Jones (6-3, 240 pounds/Signed with Texas)
2007 Martez Wilson (6-3, 230 pounds/Signed with Illinois)
2010 Owamagbe Odighizuwa (6-3, 234 pounds/Signed with UCLA)
2010: Jackson Jeffcoat (6-3, 230 pounds/Signed with Texas)
2012 Dante Fowler Jr. (6.3, 232 pounds/Signed with Florida)
2022 Jeremiah Alexander (6-3, 235 pounds/Signed with Alabama)
2023 Yhonzae Pierre (6-3, 220 pounds/Signed with Alabama)
The good news is that 33% of this small sample-size (Odighizuwa and Fowller Jr. were good enough to be major all-conference players and early NFL draft picks, which gives a lot more hope to projecting Simmons' long-term outlook based on the historical like for like data that we have to work with.
If we expand the data to the other super-blue chip group (the high four stars) players that qualified as Tweeners, out sample-size of players that have completed grows to 11:
2004 Tim Jamison (6-3, 240 pounds/Signed with Michigan)
2004 George Covington (6-3, 230 pounds/Signed with Maryland)
2004 Charles Johnson (6-3, 240 pounds/Signed with Georgia)
2005 Al Jones (6-2, 236 pounds/Signed with LSU
2007: Richetti Jones (6-3, 234 pounds/Signed with Oklahoma State)
2009 Jarvis Jones (6-3, 236 pounds/Signed with USC)
2010: Reggie Wilson (6-2, 240 pounds/Signed with Texas)
2016: Oluwole Betiku (6-3, 240 pounds/Signed with USC)
Of this group of eight players, three (Jamison, Johnson and Jones) played in the NFL, two (Johnson and Jones) were drafted before the end of day two and one (Jones)was a first-round draft pick.
Overall, if we combine all of the super blue chips defensive end tweeners (14) since 2002...
50,0% were in the NFL as an active player or practice squad player
42.9% played in the NFL
28.8% were drafted on Day 1 or Day 2 in the NFL Draft.
14.3% were first round draft picks in the NFL.
So, what does this all mean?
I suppose it means that if you're a freak, it doesn't matter. The success percentages of super blue chip tweener defensive ends aren't quite as high as the percentages of non-tweener defensive ends, but the numbers are in a neighboring zip code.
True freshman Colton Vasek is the only defensive end since 2010 that the Longhorns have signed that brought a 14.3% chance of being a first round draft pick in the NFL to the table.
You can argue that the Longhorns are not only due, but perhaps they are due to hit big with a guy just like Simmons.
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