(From McComas)
The day is, finally, almost here, but it hasn’t arrived without a surprising additional storyline. Tomorrow is decision day for Vandegrift star and 2020 five-star Greg Brown III. Yesterday and this morning, I thought I had this figured out and locked in. Now, I don’t think anyone does. Buckle up.
The decision will be broadcast on Instagram (undefeatedespn and greg.brown03) and YouTube (HedgeHogFamTV) at 2 p.m. Brown will be interviewed by ESPN and The Undefeated’s Marc Spears.
https://www.instagram.com/greg.brown03/
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwWralYIrqgRRfNg_9g337A
So, you won’t lack options. Neither does Brown. An outline and preview of tomorrow’s decision based on what I know as of around 9 p.m. Thursday night:
Brown will choose from a group of finalists that includes Auburn, Kentucky, Memphis, Michigan, Texas and the NBA’s G League. Currently, his Rivals.com FutureCast – I made my pick about a month ago – is 100% in favor of Texas, although I’m not sure if that would look different if there was a pro option. Almost two weeks ago, the chatter about Texas being the leader in Brown’s recruitment intensified; it isn’t a coincidence many FutureCast picks for Brown and Texas suddenly arrived around April 14.
A little over a week ago, the G League, according to sources, made a new, stronger, more lucrative offer to a few of 2020’s top prospects, including Brown. Originally, the G League’s offer was $125,000. Now, the G League is increasing its financial commitment and also coming up with a new plan for high school prospects – a select team that trains and learns under NBA personnel and plays exhibition games against G League teams, academies, national teams, and more.
“It’s been a hard decision for him. At the end of the day, I’ve just tried to put the facts on the table,” said Brown’s father, Greg Brown, Jr. “Each possible place. And then kind of let him decide what he wants to do based off that. Not everybody feels the same way, you know what I mean? They want to put their opinions out there. When you start dealing with opinions, opinions try to sway you one way or another. I don’t think he can make a bad choice because I know him as far as preparation, wanting to be the best, being a showman and trying to show out in front of whoever it is. I don’t think he can make a bad decision.
“Dealing with people … the strain comes with dealing with people and them expecting certain things … when I’m dealing with an 18-year-old kid that doesn’t know himself. Even to this point he’s, still kind of back-and-forth. Whatever you decide, you have to be 100% in and that’s going to be that. Whatever it is we’ll make it work.”
As anyone would and should, the increased, new offer to Brown caused some pause in his recruitment/decision-making process as he and his inner circle assessed the new option. At $125,000 and the original structure, the G League was never more than an extremely brief consideration before declining. The consensus among top prospects approached by the G League with that offer laughed it off. Now, things are different for a very select few. With a new offer (the number I heard from a couple of sources was $300,000 initially, but sources indicated the G League actually lowered that offer very recently) to Brown, the G League had the nation’s No. 8 overall prospect intrigued.
“It’s thrown a big wrench into it just because of the amount of money they’re offering as well as just the whole deal where no one knows if there will even be school this year,” said Brown’s father. “No one knows if there will be school, if they’ll start on time. Most cities are talking about not allowing events … so with that being said, the whole appeal of the G League is very good. But like I told you before, I just throw the facts out there for Greg and allow him based off the facts of the matter to make a decision.”
The point about the status of school being up in the air is particularly interesting because I’ve heard the G League has made a very recent push – sounds like tonight the G League has come back with a vengeance for Brown after a few silent days - to negative recruit colleges using this tool. Make no mistake, the NBA doesn’t give a damn about NCAA and college basketball. And even more interesting, the G League is in some cases lowering its financial offer while also trying to lure top prospects by offering a model to turn basketball into a job immediately instead of dealing with school. One source heard the G League even had a top NBA name reach out to Brown to help the G League; under NCAA rules that couldn’t happen, but there are no rules for the NBA.
As one source put it, “if for some reason the college season is affected, these guys could go to the G League. No one is turning them down.”
And that’s true, at least based on how I understand it. And if college basketball, scheduled to have its season begin over six months from now, had an altered season, wouldn’t the G League encounter its own issues too with players living together and working out together in a house? But the NBA is trying to hammer its point home it needs talent, will figure out the rest later, and will provide something where college basketball might not.
Earlier this week as recent as Wednesday night, I would have been very confident in a Texas pick. But as of tonight, I’m not so confident after the G League’s push. It sounds like those around Brown would prefer he go to college while he is warming up to the idea of being a basketball player full-time immediately. Clearly, it’s weighing on Brown and his family.
“I was contemplating moving up the time to yesterday so I can get this shit out of my head. I don’t sleep very well right now. It’s been a great time for the most part … been rough the last few days,” Brown’s father told Orangebloods tonight. “I’m excited for my son. I don’t think he can make a bad choice. As long as he sticks to what he does, he’s a guy that works his ass off, is not going to let you outwork him and has that knack about him to beat whoever he plays against. If he stays that way, I think he’ll be fine with whatever happens.”
While the G League is trying to leverage its position to acquire talent with the uncertainly of colleges and college sports, it doesn’t have its own details about this plan figured out, according to Mr. Brown.
“All of that is still up in the air,” he said about the G League model and its specific details about location, coaching, schedule, etc. “They’re leaning in directions, but nothing is for sure. They don’t have a clue, man. They’re trying to get the players first and then formulate some sort of plan and then fit all entities, at least that’s what I think they’re trying to do. As for factual information right now, all you know is the dollar amount, and that’s not even factual because you have to have a contract to even know what’s offered. From what was said out of mouth, you know what was offered. Everything else is pretty much up in the air. Nothing concrete.”
That’s probably the main reason why Brown’s family is in favor if college.
Mr. Brown has maintained throughout the process this would be his son’s decision. He would advise him with the facts and pros and cons, and would surround his son with people he trusted to help the process. However, he’s never strayed away from this being his son’s call.
There aren’t many times less than 24 hours before announcement when I don’t know what will happen. Yes, we normally have a very good idea how decisions will play out, offer hints, and try our best not to ruin any moments. I thought tonight’s War Room would read like that based on what I heard this morning. Full transparency as I write this now: I’m not sure what will happen tomorrow other than it’ll be Texas or the G League.
Who would have thought Texas would have to recruit against the NBA for a Vandegrift five-star player? That’s what’s happening currently. If you forced me to pick, I’d probably side with the family barely – 55% Texas, 45% G League. This, as it currently stands, is a true toss-up. If you’re a Texas fan and want to see Brown in burnt orange, root for the family to win out.
******
(From Anwar)
The Texas Longhorns are hoping to hear good news about the college football season starting on time next month.
Obviously, there are several obstacles that need to be cleared in order for that to occur. Students across the country would need to be back on campus for the fall semester. There would have to be safety measures in place for every student and faculty member. We need a universal treatment for COVID-19 before a vaccine was introduced. In addition, schools would need to be okay with fans jammed into a stadium. While some have suggested playing college football games in front of empty stadiums, unlike the NFL, the overwhelming majority of athletic department revenue is generated by ticket sales. TV revenue accounts for a small percentage of money raised.
Stadium College Football Insider Brett McMurphy recently reported his website surveyed 114 of 130 athletic directors, and 75 percent believe the season will be delayed. According to Stadium’s research, “Sixty-one percent of the ADs predict the season won’t start until October or November, while 14 percent think the season won’t begin until the spring semester in January or February. One Power Five athletic director doesn’t expect the season to be played at all because of the impact of COVID-19.”
For now, the Longhorns are preparing to be back on the field in July.
According to my sources, Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte and football coach Tom Herman have outlined a return to football with multiple timelines. I learned Texas is fully prepared for the best-case scenario, even if the season opener against the University of South Florida on September 5 could be in jeopardy right now.
In an ideal world, players return on July 1, and it is business as usual. I was told the Longhorns could use four weeks to get the players acclimated, followed by a four-week training camp before the season opener. That is the perfect scenario, according to my sources.
If the Longhorns can resume football activities on July 15, I was told that give the team enough time to get ready for the upcoming season.
However, anything past July 15 likely means the season will not start as scheduled.
There have been a few discussions behind the scenes about a later start. The staff has a contingency plan for a 12-game schedule with the season beginning three weeks later than scheduled. That would mean the 2020 season would end in late December.
In addition, the staff is planning for the season to start on time, but with only a nine-game conference schedule. That scenario would mean USF, LSU, and UTEP were removed from this year’s non-conference schedule, with the first game of the season being a road game against Kansas State.
That being said, there has not been a doomsday discussion about the season beginning in February of 2021. Nobody is willing to entertain that possibility, unless there are no other choices.
One of the biggest issues with pushing the start of football to February is player safety. Under that scenario, a college football player could participate in at least 24 games within 12 months. If a team advances to the conference title game each season, that number rises to 26. Programs that are consistently in the playoffs could easily have players participate in nearly 30 games next year. The fate of bowl games will need to be figured out. Plus, the NFL may have to alter its offseason scouting events, including the draft, with a later college football start date.
The Big 12 suspended all team activities until May 31. It appears we will know the fate of this year’s college football season no later than that date.
One of the perquisites for fall football by Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby is the need for college campuses to be open. None of the decision makers are willing to entertain a college football season with students learning remotely, but student-athletes preparing for sports. Everyone seems to understand that would be a bad look for college sports.
If you are looking for a glimmer of hope, Texas President Greg Fenves recently indicated his desire to reopen school doors in the fall:
“We expect to announce the university’s plans for the fall semester by the end of June. This timing will enable faculty to prepare their classes and curriculums so that they can deliver the extraordinary educational experiences UT is known for. It will also provide time for our dedicated staff members to reopen the facilities, integrate new learning technologies and prepare to implement new health-conscious practices and policies. In late June, we will have more information about the state of the COVID-19 crisis, and a strategy to help students plan for the fall semester will be in place.
“During the months ahead, we will be working to answer many questions: How and when can we safely bring students, faculty and staff back to the Forty Acres? How do we expand testing for COVID-19? What will social distancing look like on campus? How can we enhance the online learning experience? When will the Longhorn football team be able to take the field at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium again?
“These and other questions are being evaluated by a university-wide task force to assess our operations for the fall semester. This task force is being led by Art Markman, professor of psychology and marketing and director of UT’s IC² Institute. He is overseeing a planning team that is directing subgroups, each charged with a specific sector of campus life and learning. These subgroups are harnessing the talent and expertise of UT faculty, staff and undergraduate and graduate students, while coordinating with city and state officials as well as off-campus housing providers.”
We probably will not know the fate of college football until late next month.
Everyone associated with the Longhorn football program is preparing for the best-case scenario.
******
One of the interesting discussions taking place behind the scenes is potentially sending food to players who are scattered throughout the country.
The NCAA has left the decision to distribute food up to each conference. The Big 12 prefers its schools not to send players food. However, it is a recommendation, not a bylaw.
Basically, Longhorn officials are trying to decide if there is a real penalty for sending food each week to their players, or if they just have to deal with a verbal reprimand for Bowlsby and nothing else.
Hereman was recently asked if he was concerned about the nutrition of his guys while away from campus. This was his response:
“The answers is very concerned for a lot of our guys,” Herman said. “We've come a long way in terms of providing for our student-athletes in the last 10-20 years. You look at it and you say well they make $2,000 a month, and they should be able to feed themselves. Yeah, I know, but when you're living at home with your single mom who just got laid off from for her job as a server at Cracker Barrel, where do you think that $2,000 is going? That $2,000 is going to pay rent, car notes, cell phone bills, and all of that. I am concerned. To be quite honest, I wish we would have done more. I do know that you get the Pandora's box, or the slippery slope, if you start being able to send food. Next thing you know, you're going have a program sending Omaha Steaks every other day. I get it. I'm not oblivious, but I just wish we would have expanded just a little bit and give then peanut butter and bread, cereal, oatmeal, something like that. For now, if it's a powder, or a pill or an energy bar, as far as I know, we can send it. We’re going to going to send it as much as we can. Maybe as we continue down this road, maybe the powers that be will find a way to for us to get some food to them. Our football nutritionist, Craig Moore, does a phenomenal job of monitoring these guys, and what they eat. Down to take a picture of your pantry, show me what's in your pantry, what's in your fridge, and I can tell you what you can make, what you should eat, when you should eat, and how much. To have 100 some odd guys that he's doing that, that for speaks volumes to his commitment to our program. But we're on top of it. To answer your original question, that was the nutrition and working out, when this thing first started two weeks ago, that was the first thing. We'll figure the football part out. We'll figure all that stuff out. Let's take care of our kids from a nutrition standpoint. Let’s make sure they've got a safe place to stay. Then, let's figure out how we keep them in shape. Let's figure out how much academic support they need. For anybody who is complaining about no practice and no meeting time, I don't get that. I want to make sure our guys are safe, that they're fed well, that they've got the academic support that they need, and that they're able to stay in shape. The rest of the stuff will take care of itself.”
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Baylor December signee Jahdae Barron announced this week that he’d requested to be let out of his letter of intent, and Baylor coach Dave Aranda had agreed to grant him his full release. All eyes are now on Texas as a likely landing spot for the Pflugerville Connally product.
A little background on Barron …
Barron was a December signee for Baylor, but the Bears had to work to get him into the fold. He didn’t sign on the morning the early signing period, as expected. Instead, then Baylor head coach Matt Rhule and the Bears staff had to do some work to reel him back in and he wound up signing that afternoon. There’s some thought among people who cover the Baylor program that the delay in Barron’s signing was that he was hoping a Texas offer might come through.
Texas didn’t wind up pulling the trigger on an offer, but the Rivals database shows that he did hold a Rutgers offer, which presumably came from Jay Valai (and Chris Ash).
Baylor sources confirmed Barron’s tweet that he’s going to be given his full release. Once that happens, other teams will be free to communicate with him and the pieces on this one would seem to fit for Texas.
“I think Barron has always had eyes on Texas,” a source told me. “If he wasn’t going to be happy (at Baylor), I think Baylor said ‘If you want out, that’s fine.”
If Barron eventually does flip his commitment to Texas, he’d be a part of the 2020 class. He’d be eligible to enroll at Texas for the summer session (if that happens) or possibly next fall. The 5-11, 178-pound Barron was ranked as a three-star prospect in the 2020 class.
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We released our first installment of the 2021 Recruiting Board this week, so I thought this would be a good time to go through it, prospect by prospect, and break down why I have the percentages where I do.
This is already proving to be a bit of a trick year to predict since there are so many unknowns in terms of visits, and recruits are rapidly changing their timelines, but let’s work through the board (not including UT commitments) …
Garrett Nussmeier – 25% - He didn’t commit on his original schedule (last weekend) so there’s still time for him to get down to Austin for a visit, which is still a strong possibility. If/when that happens, these percentages will go up, but I’m expecting this to be a one-man QB class of Jalen Milroe.
Camar Wheaton – 50% - These percentages are Texas versus the field, so I’m basically saying I think it’s a coin flip on whether or not Wheaton winds up in Austin. If I was breaking each school down by individual percentages, I’d probably go Texas 35%, OU 35%, SMU 15%, some out-of-state school like LSU or Bama 15%. I think this one could ultimately come down to either Texas or OU, and it’s really hard to say right now which one of those two might have the lead.
LJ Johnson – 40% - Some may feel this is a bit low but I can’t quite shake the fact that Johnson did a recent update and didn’t mention Texas. To be fair, when I asked a follow-up if Texas was still in the mix, he said UT definitely was and said he has a really good relationship with Stan Drayton. All that being said, I can’t put Texas as the leader in this one.
RB Jonathon Brooks – 80% - I think I had him about 65% when I first started building this thing, but after talking to him last week I’d be surprised if he landed anywhere but Texas.
WR Ketron Jackson – 40% - Jackson is keeping an open mind, but he was really excited about his recent Texas offer when I talked to him that same day. He also said this week he’s been staying in touch with Tom Herman, which makes me think he’s a pretty big priority. Jackson wants to get to Austin for a visit whenever possible, and I could see this percentage shooting up quite a bit when that happens.
WR Hal Presley – 40% - Another guy who is pretty open but Presley’s a guy Texas has been talking to for a while. He was able to take a lot of visits before the dead period hit, including attending a UT game, so Texas should stay in the mix here.
WR Theodore Knox – 45% - I wish I had a better read on Knox but he’s been tough for me to track down for a one-on-one update. Rivals.com’s Sam Spiegelman told me last week he thinks this one might be down to Texas or Mississippi State, two schools he’s been high on for a while. With JoJo Earle committing to LSU, the importance of getting Knox goes up a notch or two.
WR JoJo Earle – 20% - I had him at 20% but he committed to LSU on Thursday. Texas tried to get back in it and did a good job of getting him to listen, but it was too little too late. Interesting that he committed to LSU without ever having visited there.
WR Quaydarius Davis – 40% - Tough one to predict because Quay is all over the place. He’s been committed to Texas publicly once. He was VERY high on Texas earlier this spring but has backed off on that recently. If certain things work out, UT could still land him but right now I’d take the field.
TE Landen King – 60% - He’s picked up some big offers so this one’s a little less clear than I thought it was earlier this spring, but Texas really likes him, he really likes UT and his sister is a student at Texas. King to UT still makes a lot of sense.
TE Elijah Arroyo – 40% - Arroyo doesn’t have the ties to UT that King does, so I’ve got him slotted a little lower. He did tell me after picking up his Texas offer that he would consider a Texas OV, so we’ll have to see if that happens at some point.
TE Lake McRee – 35% - I don’t have a great feel on what McRee is thinking after he decommitted, but it’s not often that a guy decommits and then recommits to the same school. Not having spring ball stinks for McRee, who was hoping to get some non-contact work in after missing last year with a knee injury.
OL Tommy Brockermeyer – 45% - This one’s been discussed a bunch. There was a time when I thought Texas was the team to beat, but never the sure thing some made it out to be. Clemson surged for a bit but seems to have fallen back. Alabama is the trendy pick right now, which makes sense because Tommy and James were scheduled to take two visits there before things shut down. There’s some thought that a good 2020 season would really help UT’s chances – and I agree with that – but the plan has always been for the brothers to commit before their senior seasons kick off. If they push that back due to an inability to take summer visits, that could weigh in Texas’ favor.
OL James Brockermeyer – 45% - He and Tommy have said it’s not set in stone that they’ll play together at the next level, but it’s hard to see a scenario where they’re at different schools. Like Tommy, Texas is in a good spot here, but Alabama and a couple others are going to put up a good fight.
OL Bryce Foster – 40% - I’ve been saying for a while that Oklahoma was the team nobody was taking seriously enough. Now, OU is the trendy pick. Foster visited Norman in March, so the Sooners have had the last chance to make an impression before things got shut down. Texas needs to hope Foster sticks to his plan to take all five visits and commit in December, which I’m expecting.
OL Bram Walden – 40% - Going in at 40% is probably higher than most people would put UT’s chances, but I’ve had an Arizona source tell me Texas’ chances are as good as anyone’s. This one could get interesting if/when Walden gets to Austin for a visit.
OL Jonah Miller – 35% - This might be a bit low for Miller considering he’s visited UT twice and told me he wants to get out of state for college, but my gut tells me he stays in the Pac-12 region when it’s all said and done.
OL Savion Byrd – 40% - There was a lot of LSU buzz earlier this spring but any time I’ve communicated with Byrd, I’ve thought that was a bit overblown. Does he like LSU? Definitely, but he’s never visited there. The last time I talked to him, he mentioned SMU and Texas being atop his list because of his familiarity with both programs. Lately, there’s been more SMU chatter, thus putting him at less than 50%.
OL Matthew Wykoff – 30% - It’ll be interesting to see if Texas turns up the heat on Wykoff depending on what happens with some other guys. He likes UT and visited in January, but he also has some out-of-state schools (like USC) that he really likes.
DE Landon Jackson – 50% - I just can’t go higher than that before Jackson takes his visit. And A&M is always going to be a major factor for him. After talking to him recently, I honestly don’t think Jackson knows where he’ll wind up just yet.
DE/DT Shemar Turner – 50% - That’s a pretty high number considering the competition in this one (Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Ohio State, A&M, Oklahoma, etc) but I can’t forget that Turner visited Texas twice this spring before the current dead period kicked in.
DE Jordon Thomas – 70% - He’s down to Texas and Texas A&M and social media clues seem to favor Texas.
DE Arden Walker – 40% - I normally don’t put guys on the board who haven’t visited, but Walker was planning to get to Austin before the world was turned upside down and his interest in UT is definitely legit now that Texas has offered. I fully expect him to visit at some point if Texas keeps pushing.
DT Marcus Burris – 35% - I’m a bit torn on this one. There’s so much A&M talk, that it’s tough to ignore. Yet the times I’ve talked to Burris, he’s been very open about how much he likes Texas, and he basically told me those are the only two that he knows will get OVs. I could see this one coming down to an in-state battle, and you have to wonder how the recruitment of Jackson might factor in. Tough one to call, but A&M has been believed to be the longtime leader.
LB Terrence Cooks – 65% - I’ve been saying it for a while, but this one just feels like it’s going to fall Texas’ way.
LB/DE Clayton Smith – 55% - It felt like things had cooled a bit with Smith earlier this spring (maybe because I had been unable to get in touch with him) but when I spoke to him last week, Texas is definitely still a priority for him and I like UT’s chances better than anyone else’s at this point. LSU could be a real threat if the Tigers prioritize him.
LB Jaydon Williams – 60% - He’ll announce May 1, so we’ll have our answer soon. Whenever I talk to him, including this week, he mentions that it’s been a lifelong dream of his to play at Texas. The thing that worries me with picking UT as the team to beat is a connected SMU source tells me the Ponies think they’re going to get him.
LB Morice Blackwell – 30% - He doesn’t say much so it’s hard to get a good read, but he’s a guy I’d need to see visit another time or two before I go much higher than this.
CB Ishmael Ibraheem – 35% - Ibraheem’s a guy I could certainly see in this class when it’s all said and done, but he has a star-studded top 10 so Texas is going to have some tough competition. He’s got four in-state schools plus out-of-state programs like Alabama, LSU, Michigan, Georgia and Auburn.
CB Hunter Washington – 30% - Washington did take a Texas visit earlier this year and said he really liked it, but he’s also mentioned a bunch of out-of-state schools he wants to visit. Tough one to read, honestly.
CB Deuce Harmon – 25% - I put this number pretty low since Texas just offered and he basically said the Longhorns are behind the pack. But I fully expect this number to consistently rise if Texas recruits him heavily.
S JD Coffey – 60% - I’ve always felt like Texas looks good here. Coffey visited in late January, loved it and was supposed to visit again in late March for a spring practice. If Texas pushes, I like the Longhorns’ chances.
S Andrew Mukuba – 40% - When Texas first offered, Mukuba was fresh off an OU visit and the Sooners had most of the buzz. Not so much anymore, as Texas has done a good job of late. I need to follow up with him this week because I’m not sure 40% isn’t too low.
S Isaiah Nwokobia – 40% - He’s very high on Texas and wants to take an official visit to Austin. If that happens, this one could be very interesting. SMU is a school that’s generated a lot of chatter with him of late.
DB Ceyair Wright – 25% - He hasn’t visited yet, but he was scheduled to come to Austin the weekend everything got shut down so he deserves a spot on the list.
