Lots of different data points in here that I find to be insightful. I’ll give them to you like lego bricks—as independent pieces, numbered for ease of reference, and you guys can snap them together or pull them apart as you want to gain your own perspectives. I’ll give my own insight summary at the end and hope to hear yours if you have them.
Warning: stat lines and etc below. If you don’t like sifting through this stuff you‘ll probably prefer to skip this thread altogether.
1. Michael Penix Jr: played in 13 games / 307 for 466 attempts = 65.9 accuracy / 4218 total yards / 33 TD vs 9 INT / 161.4 QBR
2. Quinn Ewers: played in 11 games / 248 for 351 attempts = 70.7 accuracy / 3161 total yards / 21 TD vs 6 INT / 162.6 QBR
3. TEX and WAS both have 1k yard rushers, though Brooks is out For TEX. Behind them WAS has no 200+ yard backs on the year. TEX has a 600 yard and 340 yard back filling in.
4. WAS receivers: 1430 yrds + 13 TD / 1000 yards + 8 TD / 468 yards + 3 INT / 332 yards + 4 TD. Total 32 receiving TD
5. TEX receivers: 970 yards + 5 TD / 815 yards + 10 TD / 610 yards + 2 TD / 435 yards + 1 TD Total 24 receiving TD
6. TEX rushing TD: 26
7. WAS rushing TD: 26
8. TEX kicker: 28 field goals made
9. WAS kicker: 13 field goals made
10. TEX points per game: 36.2 (#13)
11. WAS points per game: 37.7 (#8)
12. TEX Yards per game: 476 (#9)
13. WAS yards per game: 469 (#10)
14. TEX 3d down %: 38.5 (#66)
15. WAS 3d down %: 48% (#12)
16. TEX 4th down %: 63% (#24)
17. WAS 4th down %: 73% (#10)
18. TEX Red zone scoring: 80% (#90)
19. WAS Red zone scoring: 86% (#49)
20. TEX opponents Points per game: 17.5 (#10)
21. WAS opponents Points per game: 23.6% (#44)
22. TEX opponents yards per game: 322 (#20)
23. WAS opponents yards per game: 397.2 (#70)
24. TEX opponents 3d down conv: 25.9% (#1)
25. WAS opponents 3d down conv: 40% (#75)
26. TEX opponents 4th down conv: 46.15% (#46)
27. WAS opponents 4th down conv: 42.8 (#29)
28. TEX opponents Red zone scoring: 71.43% (#4)
29. WAS opponents Red zone scoring: 84% (#69)
30. TEX rushing plays: 52.2% (#64)
31. WAS rushing plays: 42.06% (#124)
32. TEX rushing ypg: 189 (#23)
33. WAS rushing ypg: 125.2 (#100)
34. TEX opponent rushing ypg: 81.1 (#4)
35. WAS opponent rushing ypg: 134.1 (#39)
36. TEX passing defense: opp completion 59.7% (#48) / opp ypg 241 (#85) / INT rank (#22) / sack rank (#61)
37. WAS passing defense: opp completion 59.5% (#44) / opp ypg 263.2 (#118) / INT rank (#44) / sack rank (#129)
38. TEX time of possession rank: (#25)
39. WAS time of possession rank: (#73)
Some of the stat sites (but more used):
www.sports-reference.com
www.sports-reference.com
www.teamrankings.com
www.teamrankings.com
INSIGHTS:
a. Had no idea Texas was #1 in the country on 3d down. But we give up a lot of 4th downs…….
b. Penix Jr. is great. For sure. But his QBR isnot much different than Ewers and Quinn is actually just a smidge better this season.
C. Their receivers got 1k more yards passing this season out our of their starting QB, with Ewers missed games. Texas’ receivers stack up pretty well against them, though, and both teams have a lot of weapons to work with with Texas maybe being a little more diverse in terms of the total receivers we lean on over the course of a game.
D. But make no mistake—Penix and his top 2 receivers represent the a legit threat that can light up a scoreboard on any given day.
E. Washington has an 1.1k yard rusher and definitely lean on him for production.
F. Our pass defense is a lot better than theirs. So points should be there for us if we come out organized and ready to attack.
G. That said, our passing defense is definitely the weakness of the team in the big picture. We create more INTs, and this game will be an important time to keep that alive.
H. We have a stronger rushing attack and FG game. That will help us control the clock, which Texas does better than WAS.
I. Oregon had a great rushing defense and a worse passing defense than ours—but all in all a really good defense by the statistics. Washington scored 36 and 34 points on Oregon. But in the games before it, they scored 22, 24, and 15 points against lesser opponents so they are streaky and a bit up and down (They also scored 59 earlier in the season have hit 50+ points 3 times this season). They held opponents to single digit scores 2 times in the season. They allowed 30+ points 5 times this season and 40+ points 1 time.
J. Texas has only given up 30 and 34 (and that was our loss to OU) points in two games of the season and all other games the Texas defense kept the score under 30. We held three opponents to single digit scores.
K. This makes me feel like Washington will be able to score 24-36 points on Texas, and the question is about if Texas can score more than that on WAS. Trend wise, Texas has been surging in points production the last few weeks while WAS has been locked in close, single score games since NOV started. So the trend favors TEX, but not sure how much that counts with a month of rest and strategic planning / practice between now and the game.
L. Watching their game film, Penix Jr. struggles under pressure and the WAS offense can stall out, for sure, for long stretches of the game. BUT WHEN they get the motor going, they can score fast and it is very hard to stop them. I wouldn’t expect some juggernaut defensive performance from Texas in this game. WAS will get some points. But if we can shut down the run (like we have done well) and create some pressure on Penix we have reason to believe we can stall them out for a bit and keep the score contained to the 20’s and maybe early 30s.
M. Penix Jr. is not a big rushing threat. He can pick up a first down on you, for sure, but that’s not the type of threat he represents. He’s no Milroe and won’t get a spy put on him.
O. The Texas offense should be productive. WAS defense is on part with something between OU and KSU in the B12. This WAS team is not unlike the Texas Tech teams of old (in years when they had a decent defense but not lights out). Dangerous offense that can light up a field but can’t control the clock too well and runs hot and cold. I’d expect to see Sark try to keep the run / screen / etc game humming to chew up the clock. Two 7 to 9 minute drives for Texas would take a lot off the table for WAS.
Warning: stat lines and etc below. If you don’t like sifting through this stuff you‘ll probably prefer to skip this thread altogether.
1. Michael Penix Jr: played in 13 games / 307 for 466 attempts = 65.9 accuracy / 4218 total yards / 33 TD vs 9 INT / 161.4 QBR
2. Quinn Ewers: played in 11 games / 248 for 351 attempts = 70.7 accuracy / 3161 total yards / 21 TD vs 6 INT / 162.6 QBR
3. TEX and WAS both have 1k yard rushers, though Brooks is out For TEX. Behind them WAS has no 200+ yard backs on the year. TEX has a 600 yard and 340 yard back filling in.
4. WAS receivers: 1430 yrds + 13 TD / 1000 yards + 8 TD / 468 yards + 3 INT / 332 yards + 4 TD. Total 32 receiving TD
5. TEX receivers: 970 yards + 5 TD / 815 yards + 10 TD / 610 yards + 2 TD / 435 yards + 1 TD Total 24 receiving TD
6. TEX rushing TD: 26
7. WAS rushing TD: 26
8. TEX kicker: 28 field goals made
9. WAS kicker: 13 field goals made
10. TEX points per game: 36.2 (#13)
11. WAS points per game: 37.7 (#8)
12. TEX Yards per game: 476 (#9)
13. WAS yards per game: 469 (#10)
14. TEX 3d down %: 38.5 (#66)
15. WAS 3d down %: 48% (#12)
16. TEX 4th down %: 63% (#24)
17. WAS 4th down %: 73% (#10)
18. TEX Red zone scoring: 80% (#90)
19. WAS Red zone scoring: 86% (#49)
20. TEX opponents Points per game: 17.5 (#10)
21. WAS opponents Points per game: 23.6% (#44)
22. TEX opponents yards per game: 322 (#20)
23. WAS opponents yards per game: 397.2 (#70)
24. TEX opponents 3d down conv: 25.9% (#1)
25. WAS opponents 3d down conv: 40% (#75)
26. TEX opponents 4th down conv: 46.15% (#46)
27. WAS opponents 4th down conv: 42.8 (#29)
28. TEX opponents Red zone scoring: 71.43% (#4)
29. WAS opponents Red zone scoring: 84% (#69)
30. TEX rushing plays: 52.2% (#64)
31. WAS rushing plays: 42.06% (#124)
32. TEX rushing ypg: 189 (#23)
33. WAS rushing ypg: 125.2 (#100)
34. TEX opponent rushing ypg: 81.1 (#4)
35. WAS opponent rushing ypg: 134.1 (#39)
36. TEX passing defense: opp completion 59.7% (#48) / opp ypg 241 (#85) / INT rank (#22) / sack rank (#61)
37. WAS passing defense: opp completion 59.5% (#44) / opp ypg 263.2 (#118) / INT rank (#44) / sack rank (#129)
38. TEX time of possession rank: (#25)
39. WAS time of possession rank: (#73)
Some of the stat sites (but more used):
2023 Washington Huskies Schedule and Results | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
2023 Washington Huskies Schedule and Results
www.sports-reference.com
2023 Texas Longhorns Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
2023 Texas Longhorns Stats
www.sports-reference.com
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns team page with results, picks, power rankings, odds and stats.
www.teamrankings.com
Washington Huskies
Washington Huskies team page with results, picks, power rankings, odds and stats.
www.teamrankings.com
INSIGHTS:
a. Had no idea Texas was #1 in the country on 3d down. But we give up a lot of 4th downs…….
b. Penix Jr. is great. For sure. But his QBR isnot much different than Ewers and Quinn is actually just a smidge better this season.
C. Their receivers got 1k more yards passing this season out our of their starting QB, with Ewers missed games. Texas’ receivers stack up pretty well against them, though, and both teams have a lot of weapons to work with with Texas maybe being a little more diverse in terms of the total receivers we lean on over the course of a game.
D. But make no mistake—Penix and his top 2 receivers represent the a legit threat that can light up a scoreboard on any given day.
E. Washington has an 1.1k yard rusher and definitely lean on him for production.
F. Our pass defense is a lot better than theirs. So points should be there for us if we come out organized and ready to attack.
G. That said, our passing defense is definitely the weakness of the team in the big picture. We create more INTs, and this game will be an important time to keep that alive.
H. We have a stronger rushing attack and FG game. That will help us control the clock, which Texas does better than WAS.
I. Oregon had a great rushing defense and a worse passing defense than ours—but all in all a really good defense by the statistics. Washington scored 36 and 34 points on Oregon. But in the games before it, they scored 22, 24, and 15 points against lesser opponents so they are streaky and a bit up and down (They also scored 59 earlier in the season have hit 50+ points 3 times this season). They held opponents to single digit scores 2 times in the season. They allowed 30+ points 5 times this season and 40+ points 1 time.
J. Texas has only given up 30 and 34 (and that was our loss to OU) points in two games of the season and all other games the Texas defense kept the score under 30. We held three opponents to single digit scores.
K. This makes me feel like Washington will be able to score 24-36 points on Texas, and the question is about if Texas can score more than that on WAS. Trend wise, Texas has been surging in points production the last few weeks while WAS has been locked in close, single score games since NOV started. So the trend favors TEX, but not sure how much that counts with a month of rest and strategic planning / practice between now and the game.
L. Watching their game film, Penix Jr. struggles under pressure and the WAS offense can stall out, for sure, for long stretches of the game. BUT WHEN they get the motor going, they can score fast and it is very hard to stop them. I wouldn’t expect some juggernaut defensive performance from Texas in this game. WAS will get some points. But if we can shut down the run (like we have done well) and create some pressure on Penix we have reason to believe we can stall them out for a bit and keep the score contained to the 20’s and maybe early 30s.
M. Penix Jr. is not a big rushing threat. He can pick up a first down on you, for sure, but that’s not the type of threat he represents. He’s no Milroe and won’t get a spy put on him.
O. The Texas offense should be productive. WAS defense is on part with something between OU and KSU in the B12. This WAS team is not unlike the Texas Tech teams of old (in years when they had a decent defense but not lights out). Dangerous offense that can light up a field but can’t control the clock too well and runs hot and cold. I’d expect to see Sark try to keep the run / screen / etc game humming to chew up the clock. Two 7 to 9 minute drives for Texas would take a lot off the table for WAS.
