On March 11th, I released a list of 5 Players to Watch at Spring Practice, with a goal to predict potential 2024 Season Projections around said players and keep an eye on them during the spring camp period. Today, I ran back through this list of Players to see "where I was wrong" and "where I was right".
Player to Watch #1 Sydir Mitchell, DL
The player I am most excited to watch heading into 2024 is 1000% Sydir Mitchell. Mitchell played just 14 snaps in 2023, 4 against Kansas and Oklahoma State and 5 against Wyoming. He recorded 3 solo tackles in those games. Entering 2024 larger than T’Vondre Sweat departed in 2023, Mitchell is 6-6 and 372 pounds.
My 2024 Season Projection: 40-42% Snap Share at Defensive Tackle. Up from 1% in 2023.
The Result: Texas needed help along the interior of the Defensive Line, and with the few snaps we saw during the 2023 season, my expectations were sky-high for the rising sophomore. Mitchell entered camp overweight and quickly fell behind the 8-ball. Texas went on the sign Bill Norton and Jermayne Lole in April to shore up depth issues.
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 6-8% Snap Share at Defensive Tackle. Up from 1% in 2023.
Player to Watch #2 Jelani McDonald, DB
At the NFL Combine, we asked Jaylan Ford who was one player on the Longhorns team that people haven’t heard of yet, his response was “Jelani McDonald.” Ford mentioned that McDonald is playing safety and nickel, two positions where the Longhorns have some depth – Jahdae Barron in the slot and new face Andrew Mukuba at safety. I want to see how the Longhorns utilize and move around the 6-2 211-pound 4-star athlete this spring.
My 2024 Season Projection: 15-20% Snap Share at Nickel / Corner. Up from 1 snap in 2023.
The Result: McDonald had a strong Spring period playing in a loaded Safety room. Coach Steve Sarkisian mentioned him glowingly in a press conference in April.
"Jelani McDonald has made really some tremendous strides at safety," Sarkisian said. "He's very rangy, he's very physical, he's a good tackler, and the instincts...thinking about him in high school, him basically playing quarterback the majority of the time that football IQ was translating over to the defense."
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 10-12% Snap Share at Safety. Up from 1 snap in 2023.
Player to Watch #3 Jordan Washington, TE
In 2023, Ja’Tavion Sanders led the Longhorn tight ends with 583 snaps, 131 more than Gunner Helm. Sanders finished third on the team with 50 targets (13.7%). The assumed replacement is Alabama transfer Amari Niblack, who according to sources is dealing with an ankle injury heading into spring practice. Gunnar Helm is in line to receive the first-team snaps, and Malik Agbo is now officially an offensive lineman, per the latest roster update. This leaves roughly 700 snaps projected available in 2024. If Niblack misses time during the spring, Jordan Washington and Juan Davis will have a large battle for the standing TE2 role, until Niblack returns. Of course, Niblack will receive a great portion of those 700 snaps in the fall, however with Washington/Davis taking opportunities this spring and maturing at receivers, it’s not out of the question to see one of them taking snaps away from Niblack.
My 2024 Season Projection: 7-8% Snap Share at Tight End as a True Freshman.
The Result: With the departure of Ja'Tavion Sanders to the NFL Draft, Amari Niblack was added to the Transfer Portal, and Jordan Washington from the High School ranks. Neither took the largest step forward in the spring, with Veteran Gunner Helm continuing to work as the first tight end on offense. Washington did catch his only 2 targets for 45 yards in the Spring Game.
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 7-8% Snap Share at Tight End as a True Freshman.
Player to Watch #4 DeAndre Moore, WR
Heavily under-discussed, often ignored, always forgotten ... the words that come to mind when I think about DeAndre Moore. Moore participated in 47 snaps (5.7%) in 2023 with just 2 targets. Moore was aligned in the slot on 93% of snaps, per PFF. Conversations have seemingly been written in pen over the last two months that Isaiah Bond (58% slot snaps in 2023) would be the predominant slot receiver in 2024 feels a bit aggressive. Bond’s positional flexibility and Moore’s impending role growth with the departure of Jordan Whittington would assure me that both will get a fair shake in the slot, with others like Matthew Golden (34% slot snaps in 2023) working in.
My 2024 Season Projection: 55-65% Snap Share Starting at Slot Receiver. Up from 5.7% in 2023.
The Result: No Jordan Whittington for the Longhorns this spring, so DeAndre Moore was indeed the one leading the Wide Receivers through the workouts as expected. If you read between the tea leaves last year, the DeAndre Moore breakout was an expectation, not a projection. Moore has been the receiver in Jordan Whittington's back pocket since the day he entered the receiver room.
Whittington mentioned at his Pro Day in March that, "He reminds me of a mini-me. He was one of the players that sat back and watched us and learned from us. He is a big-time leader at a young age."
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 65% Snap Share Starting at Slot Receiver. Up from 5.7%
Player to Watch # 5 Colton Vasek, DE
Entering Texas as a Super Blue Chip edge rusher in 2023 at 230 pounds, Colton Vasek dealt with a back injury and did not step on the field this season, he is now weighing in at 256 pounds, 2 pounds heavier than Ethan Burke and 3 pounds lighter than Barryn Sorrell. One year later, the Longhorns have added star talent to the position, making it even tougher on Vasek to earn a role, but if there is one name to keep an eye on to put himself into that rotation, it’s Vasek.
My 2024 Season Projection: 10-15% Snap Share as Rotational EDGE Rusher. 0 Snaps in 2023.
The Result:
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 35% Snap Share as a Rotational EDGE Rusher. 0 Snaps in 2023.
On April 19th, I asked 6 Questions heading into Saturday's Spring Game, intending to predict how the game would go for a few players and/or positions of consequence. Today, I'll run back through this list and see "where I was wrong" and "where I was right".
1. How many passes does Arch Manning attempt?
Overall in 2023, the Longhorn's top 3 quarterbacks attempted 49 passes for 390 yards. Ewers finished at 69% completion percentage on 23 attempts while Maalik Murphy and Arch Manning each finished with 13. According to Anwar’s note in the War Room this week, Coach Sarkisian wants to keep Quinn Ewers on a pitch count, as he believes Ewers is playing at a high level right now and doesn’t need to see much from his starter.
Prediction: 20, last year it felt like a heated conversation with the entrance of Arch Manning and of course Maalik Murphy. This year, I think Arch will come in lower than Ewers’ 2023 total pass attempts and Trey Owens will finish second with around 17.
The Answer: Wrong, 25 Pass Attempts. Surpassing Ewers' total from 2023.
2. Who will win the “What are we Doing Award?”, courtesy of T’Vondre Sweat in 2023?
Note from Alex's 2023 Spring Game Deep Dig: "T'Vondre Sweat clearly doesn't belong with the second-team defense; what are we doing here? A decision-maker at the Senior Bowl THIS SEASON said in an off-record conversation that he would have been more interested in inviting Sweat to the All-Star game in 2023 had Sweat elected to leave for the NFL than he was in bringing in Keondre Coburn. Just a little nugget to file away. Sweat's job, like Watts', is in zero jeopardy barring radically unforeseen circumstances."
Prediction: Andrew Mukuba, Mukuba transferred to Texas this winter after playing over 600 snaps in each of the past three seasons for Clemson. Without having personal eyes on Practices this spring, conversations I’ve had with those in attendance are pointing at Michael Taafe as being a clear roadblock for Mukuba this spring. Everyone knows Mukuba can play, he just hasn’t taken the starting role and ran with it. Saturday’s Spring Game will be the opportunity to make it clear.
The Answer: The Winner has to be Ryan Wingo, and it's no surprise now. Before the Spring when Texas acquired Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, and Silas Bolden out of the Transfer Portal, the expectation had to be close to zero for Ryan Wingo to come in and start on Day 1, but after a gnarly 4-81-2 stat line at DKR, it's nearly impossible to put the genie back into the bottle, right?
3. What should the expectation be for Freshman Running Backs Jerrick Gibson and Christian Clark?
According to Alex Dunlap’s 2023 Spring Game Deep Dig, Savion Red led all running backs with 30 snaps, followed by CJ Baxter with 27, Jaydon Blue with 23, Ky Woods with 16, Collin Page with 8, and Anton Simoneau with 4. Jonathon Brooks was a DNP after offseason surgery.
Prediction: With Savion Red still on the roster in 2024 and Tre Wisner looking for more opportunities, both Clark and Gibson have an uphill battle to climb to take snaps away from the veterans in the room. But to this point in spring practices, both have done just that.
I predict Baxter and Blue to control the backfield split at the top with around 44-46 total snaps, in 2023 they combined for 50. Behind Baxter and Blue, I see Tre Wisner coming in around 27 snaps, Christian Clark with 19, Jerrick Gibson with 16, Savion Red with 8 snaps, and Collin Page and Ky Woods splitting 14 snaps.
The Answer: While I don't have the snap counts, Jerrick Gibson saw 7 touches to Christian Clark's 4. Clark finished with 2 receptions, while Gibson had just 1.
4. Where does Ryan Niblett fit in the Wide Receiver rotation?
Note: According to the Texas Longhorns roster, Niblett gained 19 lbs from 2023 to 2024, weighing in at 202 lbs. Niblett played on just 4 total snaps during the 2023 season.
Prediction: Ryan Niblett will lead all skill players in total snaps during the Spring Game, scoring a touchdown and fitting in as one of the target leaders on the day.
The Answer: Wrong. 1 reception 18 yards. Thatcher Milton however, stole his lunch money.
5. Will a Recruit or Transfer “COMMIT” this weekend?
In 2023, Quarterback Trey Owens committed in January and was the first and only commitment until May 2nd when Kicker Michael Kern picked Texas. To this point in the 2024 class, Texas has 6 commitments heading into the Spring Game, most recently Linebacker Bo Barnes last weekend.
Note: Trill Carter committed out of the Transfer Portal, on Monday after the 2023 Spring Game.
Prediction: Yes, the layup answer is Transfer Bill Norton from Arizona. However, I would love to see another recruit in the 2025 class commit to keep the momentum going.
The Answer: The Layup answer wins it, Bill Norton committed on April 22nd. However, it did look like UCLA DT Jay Toia was going to swoop in and take the light from Norton, but that was short-lived.
6. What True Freshman will be the first to make a splash play?
There are a few options on the surface to choose from, we mentioned Christian Clark earlier, but those opportunities may not come until midway through the game. Xavier Filsaime and Colin Simmons are the two five-star prospects with the easiest path to playing time. But what about Ryan Wingo going up for a touchdown reception over a veteran like Terrence Brooks, or Alex January beating an Interior Lineman on his way to an early sack?
Prediction: This prediction doesn’t feel all that spicy if I’m being honest, however, I know it will rattle Longhorn fans if it happens early against our beloved Quinn. Give me a Kobe Black interception in the 1st quarter to set the tone for the defense and the rest of the freshman class.
The Answer: This goes to Ryan Wingo, the first true splash play. The 44-yard touchdown reception from Trey Owens to break the tie before halftime.
Player to Watch #1 Sydir Mitchell, DL
The player I am most excited to watch heading into 2024 is 1000% Sydir Mitchell. Mitchell played just 14 snaps in 2023, 4 against Kansas and Oklahoma State and 5 against Wyoming. He recorded 3 solo tackles in those games. Entering 2024 larger than T’Vondre Sweat departed in 2023, Mitchell is 6-6 and 372 pounds.
My 2024 Season Projection: 40-42% Snap Share at Defensive Tackle. Up from 1% in 2023.
The Result: Texas needed help along the interior of the Defensive Line, and with the few snaps we saw during the 2023 season, my expectations were sky-high for the rising sophomore. Mitchell entered camp overweight and quickly fell behind the 8-ball. Texas went on the sign Bill Norton and Jermayne Lole in April to shore up depth issues.
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 6-8% Snap Share at Defensive Tackle. Up from 1% in 2023.
Player to Watch #2 Jelani McDonald, DB
At the NFL Combine, we asked Jaylan Ford who was one player on the Longhorns team that people haven’t heard of yet, his response was “Jelani McDonald.” Ford mentioned that McDonald is playing safety and nickel, two positions where the Longhorns have some depth – Jahdae Barron in the slot and new face Andrew Mukuba at safety. I want to see how the Longhorns utilize and move around the 6-2 211-pound 4-star athlete this spring.
My 2024 Season Projection: 15-20% Snap Share at Nickel / Corner. Up from 1 snap in 2023.
The Result: McDonald had a strong Spring period playing in a loaded Safety room. Coach Steve Sarkisian mentioned him glowingly in a press conference in April.
"Jelani McDonald has made really some tremendous strides at safety," Sarkisian said. "He's very rangy, he's very physical, he's a good tackler, and the instincts...thinking about him in high school, him basically playing quarterback the majority of the time that football IQ was translating over to the defense."
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 10-12% Snap Share at Safety. Up from 1 snap in 2023.
Player to Watch #3 Jordan Washington, TE
In 2023, Ja’Tavion Sanders led the Longhorn tight ends with 583 snaps, 131 more than Gunner Helm. Sanders finished third on the team with 50 targets (13.7%). The assumed replacement is Alabama transfer Amari Niblack, who according to sources is dealing with an ankle injury heading into spring practice. Gunnar Helm is in line to receive the first-team snaps, and Malik Agbo is now officially an offensive lineman, per the latest roster update. This leaves roughly 700 snaps projected available in 2024. If Niblack misses time during the spring, Jordan Washington and Juan Davis will have a large battle for the standing TE2 role, until Niblack returns. Of course, Niblack will receive a great portion of those 700 snaps in the fall, however with Washington/Davis taking opportunities this spring and maturing at receivers, it’s not out of the question to see one of them taking snaps away from Niblack.
My 2024 Season Projection: 7-8% Snap Share at Tight End as a True Freshman.
The Result: With the departure of Ja'Tavion Sanders to the NFL Draft, Amari Niblack was added to the Transfer Portal, and Jordan Washington from the High School ranks. Neither took the largest step forward in the spring, with Veteran Gunner Helm continuing to work as the first tight end on offense. Washington did catch his only 2 targets for 45 yards in the Spring Game.
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 7-8% Snap Share at Tight End as a True Freshman.
Player to Watch #4 DeAndre Moore, WR
Heavily under-discussed, often ignored, always forgotten ... the words that come to mind when I think about DeAndre Moore. Moore participated in 47 snaps (5.7%) in 2023 with just 2 targets. Moore was aligned in the slot on 93% of snaps, per PFF. Conversations have seemingly been written in pen over the last two months that Isaiah Bond (58% slot snaps in 2023) would be the predominant slot receiver in 2024 feels a bit aggressive. Bond’s positional flexibility and Moore’s impending role growth with the departure of Jordan Whittington would assure me that both will get a fair shake in the slot, with others like Matthew Golden (34% slot snaps in 2023) working in.
My 2024 Season Projection: 55-65% Snap Share Starting at Slot Receiver. Up from 5.7% in 2023.
The Result: No Jordan Whittington for the Longhorns this spring, so DeAndre Moore was indeed the one leading the Wide Receivers through the workouts as expected. If you read between the tea leaves last year, the DeAndre Moore breakout was an expectation, not a projection. Moore has been the receiver in Jordan Whittington's back pocket since the day he entered the receiver room.
Whittington mentioned at his Pro Day in March that, "He reminds me of a mini-me. He was one of the players that sat back and watched us and learned from us. He is a big-time leader at a young age."
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 65% Snap Share Starting at Slot Receiver. Up from 5.7%
Player to Watch # 5 Colton Vasek, DE
Entering Texas as a Super Blue Chip edge rusher in 2023 at 230 pounds, Colton Vasek dealt with a back injury and did not step on the field this season, he is now weighing in at 256 pounds, 2 pounds heavier than Ethan Burke and 3 pounds lighter than Barryn Sorrell. One year later, the Longhorns have added star talent to the position, making it even tougher on Vasek to earn a role, but if there is one name to keep an eye on to put himself into that rotation, it’s Vasek.
My 2024 Season Projection: 10-15% Snap Share as Rotational EDGE Rusher. 0 Snaps in 2023.
The Result:
- The real story of the spring game was the edge-rush play across both squads, even in the absence of stud transfer Trey Moore, who did not play. Collin Simmons (who was technically on the white team at the BUCK end, but played virtually all his snaps with the ones) and Colton Vasek (who played the JACK DE role for the white team more than any other player) were major standouts both volume and efficiency wise. Simmons was slightly better efficiency-wise and proved to be a guy who looks like he'll simply have to play this year, and possibly a lot. Simmons had a sack on Cam Williams with a speed rush as well as two separate QB "hits" that could have fairly easily been called as sacks as well as an additional QB pressure to tack on to one run-stuff, one solo tackle and two assists. He was everywhere, and it wasn't always against backup OLs. Vasek had his own coming out party with two sacks (he was only credited with one by the staff, but definitely did touch the QB before the ball left his hands on another play), 2 TFLs and one additional solo tackle.
Updated 2024 Season Projection: 35% Snap Share as a Rotational EDGE Rusher. 0 Snaps in 2023.
On April 19th, I asked 6 Questions heading into Saturday's Spring Game, intending to predict how the game would go for a few players and/or positions of consequence. Today, I'll run back through this list and see "where I was wrong" and "where I was right".
1. How many passes does Arch Manning attempt?
Overall in 2023, the Longhorn's top 3 quarterbacks attempted 49 passes for 390 yards. Ewers finished at 69% completion percentage on 23 attempts while Maalik Murphy and Arch Manning each finished with 13. According to Anwar’s note in the War Room this week, Coach Sarkisian wants to keep Quinn Ewers on a pitch count, as he believes Ewers is playing at a high level right now and doesn’t need to see much from his starter.
Prediction: 20, last year it felt like a heated conversation with the entrance of Arch Manning and of course Maalik Murphy. This year, I think Arch will come in lower than Ewers’ 2023 total pass attempts and Trey Owens will finish second with around 17.
The Answer: Wrong, 25 Pass Attempts. Surpassing Ewers' total from 2023.
2. Who will win the “What are we Doing Award?”, courtesy of T’Vondre Sweat in 2023?
Note from Alex's 2023 Spring Game Deep Dig: "T'Vondre Sweat clearly doesn't belong with the second-team defense; what are we doing here? A decision-maker at the Senior Bowl THIS SEASON said in an off-record conversation that he would have been more interested in inviting Sweat to the All-Star game in 2023 had Sweat elected to leave for the NFL than he was in bringing in Keondre Coburn. Just a little nugget to file away. Sweat's job, like Watts', is in zero jeopardy barring radically unforeseen circumstances."
Prediction: Andrew Mukuba, Mukuba transferred to Texas this winter after playing over 600 snaps in each of the past three seasons for Clemson. Without having personal eyes on Practices this spring, conversations I’ve had with those in attendance are pointing at Michael Taafe as being a clear roadblock for Mukuba this spring. Everyone knows Mukuba can play, he just hasn’t taken the starting role and ran with it. Saturday’s Spring Game will be the opportunity to make it clear.
The Answer: The Winner has to be Ryan Wingo, and it's no surprise now. Before the Spring when Texas acquired Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, and Silas Bolden out of the Transfer Portal, the expectation had to be close to zero for Ryan Wingo to come in and start on Day 1, but after a gnarly 4-81-2 stat line at DKR, it's nearly impossible to put the genie back into the bottle, right?
3. What should the expectation be for Freshman Running Backs Jerrick Gibson and Christian Clark?
According to Alex Dunlap’s 2023 Spring Game Deep Dig, Savion Red led all running backs with 30 snaps, followed by CJ Baxter with 27, Jaydon Blue with 23, Ky Woods with 16, Collin Page with 8, and Anton Simoneau with 4. Jonathon Brooks was a DNP after offseason surgery.
Prediction: With Savion Red still on the roster in 2024 and Tre Wisner looking for more opportunities, both Clark and Gibson have an uphill battle to climb to take snaps away from the veterans in the room. But to this point in spring practices, both have done just that.
I predict Baxter and Blue to control the backfield split at the top with around 44-46 total snaps, in 2023 they combined for 50. Behind Baxter and Blue, I see Tre Wisner coming in around 27 snaps, Christian Clark with 19, Jerrick Gibson with 16, Savion Red with 8 snaps, and Collin Page and Ky Woods splitting 14 snaps.
The Answer: While I don't have the snap counts, Jerrick Gibson saw 7 touches to Christian Clark's 4. Clark finished with 2 receptions, while Gibson had just 1.
4. Where does Ryan Niblett fit in the Wide Receiver rotation?
Note: According to the Texas Longhorns roster, Niblett gained 19 lbs from 2023 to 2024, weighing in at 202 lbs. Niblett played on just 4 total snaps during the 2023 season.
Prediction: Ryan Niblett will lead all skill players in total snaps during the Spring Game, scoring a touchdown and fitting in as one of the target leaders on the day.
The Answer: Wrong. 1 reception 18 yards. Thatcher Milton however, stole his lunch money.
5. Will a Recruit or Transfer “COMMIT” this weekend?
In 2023, Quarterback Trey Owens committed in January and was the first and only commitment until May 2nd when Kicker Michael Kern picked Texas. To this point in the 2024 class, Texas has 6 commitments heading into the Spring Game, most recently Linebacker Bo Barnes last weekend.
Note: Trill Carter committed out of the Transfer Portal, on Monday after the 2023 Spring Game.
Prediction: Yes, the layup answer is Transfer Bill Norton from Arizona. However, I would love to see another recruit in the 2025 class commit to keep the momentum going.
The Answer: The Layup answer wins it, Bill Norton committed on April 22nd. However, it did look like UCLA DT Jay Toia was going to swoop in and take the light from Norton, but that was short-lived.
6. What True Freshman will be the first to make a splash play?
There are a few options on the surface to choose from, we mentioned Christian Clark earlier, but those opportunities may not come until midway through the game. Xavier Filsaime and Colin Simmons are the two five-star prospects with the easiest path to playing time. But what about Ryan Wingo going up for a touchdown reception over a veteran like Terrence Brooks, or Alex January beating an Interior Lineman on his way to an early sack?
Prediction: This prediction doesn’t feel all that spicy if I’m being honest, however, I know it will rattle Longhorn fans if it happens early against our beloved Quinn. Give me a Kobe Black interception in the 1st quarter to set the tone for the defense and the rest of the freshman class.
The Answer: This goes to Ryan Wingo, the first true splash play. The 44-yard touchdown reception from Trey Owens to break the tie before halftime.
