The Updated 2016 LSR Top 100
It took me long enough, but I finally put the finishing touches on the updated 2016 LSR Top 100 on Monday night. Before we get into the details of the updated rankings, I wanted to pass along a few housekeeping items.
a. This is the fifth update of the list since the 2016 rankings debuted in May of 2014 and while the list has been fairly stable for the last year or so, outside of the new additions to the list that pop up along the way, there will be one final revision of the list after the various all-star workouts and games are completed. Basically, we'll do one more update in the middle of January and we'll be done.
b. In the meantime, I'm already starting the process of revising the 2017 LSR list for early January. Give me a week or two.
c. For those that don't understand my process, let me try to explain to you how I approach ranking prospects. With each update, I try to create as much of a blank slate as I can with every prospect that is evaluated. In this particular update, senior film was a big piece of the puzzle and I combined that piece of the puzzle with all of the other Intel we have on a prospect. For instance, a player like Greg Little has been seen time and time again, whether it's on the field or in a camp/combine setting. By the time he puts his name on a LOI, he'll have been viewed in excess of 20 times or so by the OB/Rivals team and I try to use all of the info we've acquired, including thoughts and observations by college coaches and others in the industry that we know in an effort to put together as complete of a evaluation as possible.
Every kid has a different amount of puzzle pieces, which makes each evaluation slightly different than any other. Yes, we're talking snowflakes.
Also, I personally find the tiers that a prospect is slotted in to be more important than the actual number assigned to the prospects in a 1-100 order. For instance, I rated an all-time high number of 6.0 prospects this season among in-state prospects in giving 12 players that ranking, which means that I had a pool of players ranked No.2-13 that all have the same grade. Assigning the order of a group with the same ranking can be an impossible process and it comes down to a very slight difference here or there. At various times in this process, I juggled the order of those 12 players countless times. The bottom line is that a 6.0 prospect translates to a national top 50-ish type player and I believe every guy in each tier to be valued at roughly the same.
With that disclaimer out of the way, here are the tier breakdowns.
6.1 (Five-star): 1
6.0 (High four-star): 2-13
5.9 (Mid four-star): 14-26
5.8 (Low four-star): 27-45
5.7 (High three-star): 46-72
5.6 (Mid three-star): 73-100
Before I get into individual comments, let's look at a few more number breakdowns.
Committed vs. Uncommitted
Overall: 79 committed/21 uncommitted
Top 10 6 committed/4 uncommitted
Top 25: 17 committed/8 uncommitted
Top 50: 37 committed/13 uncommitted
(Note: A large majority of the 13 kids uncommitted from the top 50 have Texas under serious consideration)
Commitments by school
By Top 10
LSU (2)
Baylor (1)
Houston (1)
Ole Miss (1)
Texas (1)
By Top 25
Baylor (4)
LSU (2)
Houston (2)
Texas (2)
Texas A&M (2)
Alabama (1)
Ole Miss (1)
Oregon (1)
Oregon State (1)
Stanford (1)
By Top 50
Texas A&M (7)
Baylor (5)
Alabama (3)
Houston (3)
LSU (3)
Texas (3)
Oklahoma (2)
Ole Miss (2)
Stanford (2)
TCU (2)
Arizona State (1)
Michigan (1)
Oregon (1)
Oregon State (1)
Texas Tech (1)
By Top 100
Baylor (12)
Houston (9)
Texas A&M (9)
Texas (8)
TCU (5)
LSU (4)
Stanford (4)
Texas Tech (4)
Alabama (3)
Ole Miss (3)
Arkansas (2)
Missouri (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Oklahoma State (2)
Oregon (2)
Arizona State (1)
Clemson (1)
Kansas (1)
Fresno State (1)
Georgia Tech (1)
Michigan (1)
Minnesota (1)
Oregon State (1)
Commitments by conference
Big 12: 34
SEC: 23
AAC: 9
Pac-12: 8
Big 10: 2
ACC: 2
MWC: 1
Individual Player thoughts...
a. I had a very hard time slotting the three huge safety prospects in the state. All have a chance to be NFL players, but Anderson and Jones could both move into five-star status with big all-star game weeks. Both are very close.
b. Jean Delance is a player that I believe is a national top 50-75 kind of prospect, which is a full tier higher than Rivals has him ranked (No.155 overall). I've probably been higher on Delance from the very beginning of the recruiting process than anyone in the industry.
c. A&M OL commit Kellen Diesch made a massive move from No.74 to No.11. Needless to say, I loved his senior film. He's going to take a couple of years to develop, but he has awesome feet and perfect frame.
d. Tyrie Cleveland looks better and better every time I see him. That guy will crush it at Houston if that's where he sticks.
e. Kaden Smith dropped from the 6.0 tier to the 5.9 tier because of the ACL injury.
f. I really like the quarterbacks in this class. From Buechele to Jalen Hurts to Zack Smith to Dillon Sterling-Cole, I think all of these guys have massive upside and any from this group could emerge as the best in the state four years from now.
g. Like Diesch, Texas commit Denzel Okafor made a big move from No.58 to No.21. He's big, athletic and he just mauls people. He could end up on the two-deep the day he steps on campus in Austin.
h. A&M has the makings of a really good running backs class.
i. George Ranch RB Darius Anderson, Duncanville DT Marcel Southall, Athens athlete Travon Fuller, SL Carroll athlete Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Arlington Lamar DT Chris Owens and Houston Westside DT Jordan Elliott are the six players I gave four-star grades to that Rivals has ranked as three-stars.
j. Zarrion Holcombe is a four-star talent with enough question marks that he fell into the three-star tier.
k. I'll spend a lot of time in the final few weeks of evaluating this class focused on the bottom 50 and the guys ranking between 101-150. I feel really good about the top 50 or so, but I want to take as close of a look at the high and mid- three-stars as possible before signing off on the final set of rankings.
l. Yes, I know some of the current scouting reports are old. I will update them asap.
m. Finally, here's a breakdown of the players headed to all-star games in the next two weeks.
Under Armor (17): No.1 Greg Little, No.2 Deontay Anderson, No.3 Brandon Jones, No.4 Patrick Hudson, No.6 Eric Monroe, No.8 Ed Oliver, No.9 Jean Delance, No.12 Devin Duvernay, No.13 Tyrie Cleveland, No.14 Jeffrey McCulloch, No.18 Devwah Whaley, No.24 Dontavius Jackson, No.34 Kendall Jones, No.44 Chris Owens, No.51 Rahssan Thornton, No.52 Eric Cuffee and No.91 Austin Myers
Army (9): No.5 Erick Fowler, No.17 Justin Madubuike, No.23 Tren'Davion Dickson, No.35 Kyle Porter, No.39 Mark Jackson, No.43 Sewo Olonilua, No.45 Jordan Elliott, No.66 Ross Blacklock and No.72 Charles Oliver
Semper Fi (9): No.16 Jared Mayden, No.21 Denzel Okafor, No.26 Zack Smith, No.28 Isaiah Chambers, No.32 Dillon Sterling-Cole, No.33 Marcel Southall, No.37 Parrish Cobb, No.61 JC Chalk and No.100 Andrew Fitzgerald
Top 25 prospects not scheduled to appear in post-season all-star games: No.7 Brandon Bowen, No.11 Kellen Diesch, No.15 Kaden Smith (injured), No.19 Jalen Hurts, No.20 Kam Martin, No.22 Quartney Davis and No.25 Christian Wallace
It took me long enough, but I finally put the finishing touches on the updated 2016 LSR Top 100 on Monday night. Before we get into the details of the updated rankings, I wanted to pass along a few housekeeping items.
a. This is the fifth update of the list since the 2016 rankings debuted in May of 2014 and while the list has been fairly stable for the last year or so, outside of the new additions to the list that pop up along the way, there will be one final revision of the list after the various all-star workouts and games are completed. Basically, we'll do one more update in the middle of January and we'll be done.
b. In the meantime, I'm already starting the process of revising the 2017 LSR list for early January. Give me a week or two.
c. For those that don't understand my process, let me try to explain to you how I approach ranking prospects. With each update, I try to create as much of a blank slate as I can with every prospect that is evaluated. In this particular update, senior film was a big piece of the puzzle and I combined that piece of the puzzle with all of the other Intel we have on a prospect. For instance, a player like Greg Little has been seen time and time again, whether it's on the field or in a camp/combine setting. By the time he puts his name on a LOI, he'll have been viewed in excess of 20 times or so by the OB/Rivals team and I try to use all of the info we've acquired, including thoughts and observations by college coaches and others in the industry that we know in an effort to put together as complete of a evaluation as possible.
Every kid has a different amount of puzzle pieces, which makes each evaluation slightly different than any other. Yes, we're talking snowflakes.
Also, I personally find the tiers that a prospect is slotted in to be more important than the actual number assigned to the prospects in a 1-100 order. For instance, I rated an all-time high number of 6.0 prospects this season among in-state prospects in giving 12 players that ranking, which means that I had a pool of players ranked No.2-13 that all have the same grade. Assigning the order of a group with the same ranking can be an impossible process and it comes down to a very slight difference here or there. At various times in this process, I juggled the order of those 12 players countless times. The bottom line is that a 6.0 prospect translates to a national top 50-ish type player and I believe every guy in each tier to be valued at roughly the same.
With that disclaimer out of the way, here are the tier breakdowns.
6.1 (Five-star): 1
6.0 (High four-star): 2-13
5.9 (Mid four-star): 14-26
5.8 (Low four-star): 27-45
5.7 (High three-star): 46-72
5.6 (Mid three-star): 73-100
Before I get into individual comments, let's look at a few more number breakdowns.
Committed vs. Uncommitted
Overall: 79 committed/21 uncommitted
Top 10 6 committed/4 uncommitted
Top 25: 17 committed/8 uncommitted
Top 50: 37 committed/13 uncommitted
(Note: A large majority of the 13 kids uncommitted from the top 50 have Texas under serious consideration)
Commitments by school
By Top 10
LSU (2)
Baylor (1)
Houston (1)
Ole Miss (1)
Texas (1)
By Top 25
Baylor (4)
LSU (2)
Houston (2)
Texas (2)
Texas A&M (2)
Alabama (1)
Ole Miss (1)
Oregon (1)
Oregon State (1)
Stanford (1)
By Top 50
Texas A&M (7)
Baylor (5)
Alabama (3)
Houston (3)
LSU (3)
Texas (3)
Oklahoma (2)
Ole Miss (2)
Stanford (2)
TCU (2)
Arizona State (1)
Michigan (1)
Oregon (1)
Oregon State (1)
Texas Tech (1)
By Top 100
Baylor (12)
Houston (9)
Texas A&M (9)
Texas (8)
TCU (5)
LSU (4)
Stanford (4)
Texas Tech (4)
Alabama (3)
Ole Miss (3)
Arkansas (2)
Missouri (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Oklahoma State (2)
Oregon (2)
Arizona State (1)
Clemson (1)
Kansas (1)
Fresno State (1)
Georgia Tech (1)
Michigan (1)
Minnesota (1)
Oregon State (1)
Commitments by conference
Big 12: 34
SEC: 23
AAC: 9
Pac-12: 8
Big 10: 2
ACC: 2
MWC: 1
Individual Player thoughts...
a. I had a very hard time slotting the three huge safety prospects in the state. All have a chance to be NFL players, but Anderson and Jones could both move into five-star status with big all-star game weeks. Both are very close.
b. Jean Delance is a player that I believe is a national top 50-75 kind of prospect, which is a full tier higher than Rivals has him ranked (No.155 overall). I've probably been higher on Delance from the very beginning of the recruiting process than anyone in the industry.
c. A&M OL commit Kellen Diesch made a massive move from No.74 to No.11. Needless to say, I loved his senior film. He's going to take a couple of years to develop, but he has awesome feet and perfect frame.
d. Tyrie Cleveland looks better and better every time I see him. That guy will crush it at Houston if that's where he sticks.
e. Kaden Smith dropped from the 6.0 tier to the 5.9 tier because of the ACL injury.
f. I really like the quarterbacks in this class. From Buechele to Jalen Hurts to Zack Smith to Dillon Sterling-Cole, I think all of these guys have massive upside and any from this group could emerge as the best in the state four years from now.
g. Like Diesch, Texas commit Denzel Okafor made a big move from No.58 to No.21. He's big, athletic and he just mauls people. He could end up on the two-deep the day he steps on campus in Austin.
h. A&M has the makings of a really good running backs class.
i. George Ranch RB Darius Anderson, Duncanville DT Marcel Southall, Athens athlete Travon Fuller, SL Carroll athlete Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Arlington Lamar DT Chris Owens and Houston Westside DT Jordan Elliott are the six players I gave four-star grades to that Rivals has ranked as three-stars.
j. Zarrion Holcombe is a four-star talent with enough question marks that he fell into the three-star tier.
k. I'll spend a lot of time in the final few weeks of evaluating this class focused on the bottom 50 and the guys ranking between 101-150. I feel really good about the top 50 or so, but I want to take as close of a look at the high and mid- three-stars as possible before signing off on the final set of rankings.
l. Yes, I know some of the current scouting reports are old. I will update them asap.
m. Finally, here's a breakdown of the players headed to all-star games in the next two weeks.
Under Armor (17): No.1 Greg Little, No.2 Deontay Anderson, No.3 Brandon Jones, No.4 Patrick Hudson, No.6 Eric Monroe, No.8 Ed Oliver, No.9 Jean Delance, No.12 Devin Duvernay, No.13 Tyrie Cleveland, No.14 Jeffrey McCulloch, No.18 Devwah Whaley, No.24 Dontavius Jackson, No.34 Kendall Jones, No.44 Chris Owens, No.51 Rahssan Thornton, No.52 Eric Cuffee and No.91 Austin Myers
Army (9): No.5 Erick Fowler, No.17 Justin Madubuike, No.23 Tren'Davion Dickson, No.35 Kyle Porter, No.39 Mark Jackson, No.43 Sewo Olonilua, No.45 Jordan Elliott, No.66 Ross Blacklock and No.72 Charles Oliver
Semper Fi (9): No.16 Jared Mayden, No.21 Denzel Okafor, No.26 Zack Smith, No.28 Isaiah Chambers, No.32 Dillon Sterling-Cole, No.33 Marcel Southall, No.37 Parrish Cobb, No.61 JC Chalk and No.100 Andrew Fitzgerald
Top 25 prospects not scheduled to appear in post-season all-star games: No.7 Brandon Bowen, No.11 Kellen Diesch, No.15 Kaden Smith (injured), No.19 Jalen Hurts, No.20 Kam Martin, No.22 Quartney Davis and No.25 Christian Wallace
