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One thing that stood out this spring is how Steve Sarkisian turned around recruiting at Texas. The 2023 Longhorns are stacked with talent. Texas will have more talent on both sides of the ball than the majority of its opponents this season. Alabama is always loaded. However, Texas should have a talent advantage in every other game this season.
“I think we have really good depth on this team,” Sarkisian said after the spring game. “You can go position by position and I feel very comfortable if the starter isn't in, the backup doesn't look much different. We haven't been in that space here [during] my first couple of years. We've been in a space where maybe one position was that way, but at another position, it was like, man, if so and so it goes down, we're in real trouble. Today, I kind of feel like if so and so goes down at a position, which we never want him to, the next guy going in, we all feel very comfortable with. I think that part for me was the thing that I got out of spring ball. We have depth on this team now to where we have a very solid two deep, and at some positions three-deep, where we're very comfortable with the players that we have.”
The best way for Sarkisian to continue his success in recruiting is by creating a constant pipeline from Austin to the NFL. I guarantee you Micah Hudson and Colin Simmons will pay attention to which programs are producing NFL players when the draft begins on Thursday. If they do not watch the event, college recruiters will provide them with the results of their program's 2023 draft success.
Texas must become an NFL factory.
“I hope that our number that goes to the combine continues to grow,” Sarkisian recently said. “I feel like we should always be in the top three to four teams in the country of putting players at the combine. We're not there yet. We sent five guys this year. We should be hovering at around 10 a year going to the combine. That's what we've got to work towards. And that's where player development comes in. Not only in the weight room, the development of the skill, but also as a person.
“I think that says a lot. When you do the interviews with the NFL teams and how you represent yourself and the University of Texas, your knowledge of the game, all those things matter. We put a lot of time and effort into it. So, hopefully, we continue to see the growth that we saw from year one to year two.”
Former Texas running back Bijan Robinson is the most coveted Longhorn in this year’s draft. NFL Draft analysts believe Robinson will be a first-round draft pick, and some believe Philadelphia could use its 10th overall pick to select him. Sarkisian may not have recruited Robinson, but the coach will get credit for the running back’s development.
Former Texas linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, running back Roschon Johnson, plus defense tackles Keondre Coburn and Moro Ojomo are the other Longhorn draft prospects. It would be a pleasant surprise if anyone in this group was a day two selection (second and third-round). More than likely, the draft range for these players is late-round to undrafted.
This Longhorn draft will be an improvement compared to last year.
Unfortunately, Texas did not have a player selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. The last time a Longhorn football was not drafted was in 2014.
That should never occur at Texas.
The Athletic’s Ari Wasserman, David Ubben, and Mitch Light combined to discover which schools were the best and worst at developing NFL talent. It was a timely article leading up to the draft. They uncovered a fact about Texas that Ketch has pointed out for numerous years.
The Longhorns have struggled to produce NFL talent.
Let me show you a little bit of their research, how it was compiled, and of course, encourage you to sign up for The Athletic (free plug in exchange for sharing their data).
“Using the 247Sports Composite Rating, we tallied the total three-, four- and five-star prospects signed at each of the 65 Power 5 programs from 2009 through 2019 and how many of each star rating were drafted from 2012 through 2022 in the seven-round event that features more than 250 picks each year. Then we tallied the percentages for each school. The top and bottom 10 featured some usual suspects and some surprises.
“To prevent small sample sizes, we limited the rankings to schools that signed at least five five-star prospects and 20 four-star prospects.”
Here is their conclusion (YouTube video in this link):
“No SEC team had a worse rate of converting five-star prospects to pros than OU or Texas. If that continues in the SEC, it will be difficult for them to continue to sign those coveted prospects.”
Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
The 2023 draft will be a step in the right direction for Texas.
The 2024 draft could be a return to elite status.
Here are the names of those draft prospects:
QB – Quinn Ewers
WR – AD Mitchell
WR – Xavier Worthy
TE – Ja’Tavion Sanders
OL – Christian Jones
LB – Jaylan Ford
Edge – Barryn Sorrell
DB – Ryan Watts
DB – Jahdae Barron
DT – T’Vondre Sweat
DT – Byron Murphy II
S – Jerrin Thompson
If Robinson and Ewers are first-round draft picks, Texas could have back-to-back first-round selections for the first time since linebacker Brian Orakpo was picked at 13th overall in 2009, followed by Earl Thomas at No.14 in 2010. Texas could have multiple first and second-day picks next year.
“I think one thing is, you can watch the tape of our players and you see a body of work that's on film,” Sarkisian said. “And then when people start to meet with them, whether it's the interview process at the combine, the workouts, or when they come to visit us here for Pro Day or different visits or when they have our players go visit them for one of the 30 visits that they get, I think they start learning about the football IQ. I think they start learning about the men that they are and how they carry themselves. All those things are bonuses on top of what the tape says. Because the film is just a silent film. All you see is what you see. There's no commentary when we watch the tape, it's silent.
“Then you get to learn about the person, you learn about the work ethic, you learn about their attention to detail, you learn about their IQ of the game. That's what's been impressive here over the last couple of weeks is that guys are starting to really learn our players, who they are, I think that's where we're starting to see some of the kind of growth in the eyes of the NFL right now.”
Texas must become an NFL factory.
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NFL JOURNIES
Now would be a great time to remind of the unique path from Texas to the NFL for a few Longhorns:
1. Bijan Robinson will go down as one of the greatest Longhorns in school history. However, Robinson was not the first running back option in the 2020 class. Former Northshore running back Zach Evans was the No.1 priority. I was previously told Evans was "priority number one, two, three, four, five, six, and seven." When it became clear Evans was not interested in Texas, the staff went all chips in on Robinson.
2. Roschon Johnson was expected to become an impactful dual-threat quarterback in the 2019 class. However, I attended Johnson's first training camp practice, and it would take him years - if ever - to develop into a college quarterback. Johnson quickly realized it, too. He requested a move to running back before the season after multiple injuries to that room. The rest is history.
3. During the pandemic lockdown, DeMarvion Overshown returned to Arp and obtained a full-time job to support his family. When players began returning to campus, Overshown remained in Arp. Former football coach Tom Herman and his staff had to convince Overshown to rejoin the team because the linebacker was focused on helping his family. They convinced Overshown he would be able to help them long-term by playing football and becoming an NFL draft pick. Overshown was the last player to rejoin the Longhorns. Now, he is a few days away from being in the NFL.
Funniest Things You Will See This Week
I am the party dad
Mom is busted
This reporter went back to work with a contact high
Dating in 2023 (send this to your single friends)
Sports On A Dime
1. I asked a source this past week to name the winners of this spring. That person did not give me individual names. Instead, I was told they believe nearly every player on this team improved in some way or another. In addition, they believe this team is more close-knit now than it has been in previous years. There is a lot of optimism about the potential success of the 2023 team.
2. Texas linebacker Jaylan Ford on how to continue his team’s momentum during the offseason: “I think it's important, just coming off spring, everyone is able to kick back and relax for a little bit, kind of get the mind away from football. We had been (conditioning) eight weeks or so in the winter and then we on to spring. I think everyone getting back and kind of relaxing and taking a break from football. There's a lot of mental and physical work that goes into it. You don't want to overwork yourself. There's got to be a certain point during this break where it's time to kind of reset and realize, okay, I need to get back on my grind. I need to start eating right again. I need to start working out because when we come back, we don't really ease into it. When we get here, we know what’s up. It's going to be big for everyone to just find a plan.”
3. If you live in the Houston area and want to hear Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian speak about this program in person, here is a great opportunity.
4. Enjoy this interview with Cameron Dicker
5. ICYMI
6. Here is what ESPN said about Texas in its recent Football Power Index release:
“Sitting at No. 5 in FPI's rankings and No. 4 in terms of chance to win the national championship: Texas. It's a somewhat familiar place for the model, though. FPI was bullish on the Longhorns starting last year (rank: No. 7) and it finished bullish on them, too (rank: No. 7).
“But now it's really in on them, with a 34% chance to reach the playoff and its first top-5 preseason FPI rank since 2012. They've got strong talent, based on recruiting grades, on both sides of the ball (fourth on offense, sixth on defense). And, despite losing running back Bijan Robinson to the NFL, the Longhorns return quite a bit of production on offense, led by wide receiver Xavier Worthy.
Quinn Ewers, the incumbent at quarterback facing competition from Arch Manning and Maalik Murphy, didn't have a great season last year (65.6 QBR, which ranked 50th) but does have a year of experience. And, as we saw with the teams at the top, a good situation around a quarterback can yield a high FPI rating.
Quinn Ewers is back for another season under center for Steve Sarkisian at Texas.
The Longhorns also benefit from their conference: There are fewer tough foes and no divisions in the Big 12, and that leads to a more straightforward path to a conference title than they will have in the SEC next season (Texas' 54% chance to win the Big 12 is higher than Georgia's 49% or Alabama's 41% chance to win the SEC). That doesn't mean Texas has an easy schedule, though. With a road game at Alabama on Texas' slate, the Longhorns have the toughest schedule of any of the FPI's top 10 teams.”
7. Here are my Longhorn draft predictions (I would not mind being wrong):
Bijan Robinson – 1st round
DeMarvion Overshown – 4th round
Roschon Johnson – 4th round
Keondre Coburn – 6th round
Moro Ojomo – Undrafted
8. I am a fan of any rule that will speed up college football games (via ESPN):
The NCAA Playing Rules Oversight Panel on Friday approved a rule change for 2023 that will allow the clock to run after first downs in all divisions except Division III, the NCAA announced on Friday.
The clock will continue to stop during the final two minutes of each half, maintaining at least part of a rule that long helped differentiate college football from the NFL.
"That's important," said Steve Shaw, NCAA secretary rules-editor and officials coordinator, "because the beauty of the difference in our game, and it allows a team late in the game, even without timeouts, to have a chance to advance the ball and come back and that sort of thing. So we're still going to stop it in the last two minutes."
9. Longhorn fans, dare to dream about a road win against Alabama this year
10. It is rare when boxing has a fight that anyone should care about. It is also rare when that fight lives up to the hype. Yet, Gervonta Davis versus Ryan Garcia was a great pay-per-view bout on Saturday night. Davis is known as one of the hardest hitters in boxing and set Garcia to the canvas twice. The second devastating shot was a left to Garcia’s liver, which led to his seventh-round technical knockout loss. These are the fights boxing needs.
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