(Ketch)
Six things to get us started...
1. Things have been quiet on the Colton Vasek front. I've had sources this week tell me that a flip tp Texas will eventually occur, while others have gone radio silent since his unofficial visit a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, I checked with an OU friend/source on Thursday and he described the situation "up in the air". There's a feeling that OU has definitely been positioning itself to make a quick move should he ultimately make a move. Overall, this continues to feel like a situation that is trending UT's way, but there's no question that we're in a bit of a holding pattern.
2. On the Malik Muhammad front. I said it earlier in the week, but it's complicated. He's made no secret that the NIL side of things will play a healthy role in his decision-making process and when it comes to NIL stuff, nothing is ever completely cut and dry. Frankly, there's a mixture of messages, but there is a sense from some that he will ultimately stick with Texas. Yet, there's such a desire from everyone in the Muhammad camp to maximize his "NIL" upside that I would anticipate a bit of a cloudy forecast until NSD.
3. Steve Sarkisian was pretty vague on Thursday when asked about the health status of Ryan Watts and Anthony Cook, but I'm expecting Watts to start at cornerback, while Cook sits out this week. There's still hope that Cook will return this season, but it's not a cut and dry situation. With Cook out of the line-up, the expectation will be for Kitan Crawford to take his place in the line-up.
4. Good news on the Texas NIL front. I'm told that an announcement could arrive in the next week about the latest organized venture and it won't be an isolated situation directed towards a one sport or position group within the sport. The ultimate goal of this soon-to-be-announced venture will be to raise upwards of 20 million annually. Stay tuned.
5. Finally, the rumors around potential departures from the Texas A&M football program continue to circulate and a number of names continue to be associated with the Longhorns. While Evan Stewart's name never stops being thrown around, one person told me of a highly thought of lineman in the program that could leave and seek a marriage with the Longhorns. I reached out to one source that I thought might have some knowledge on the situation and was given neither a confirmation nor denial. Basically, there's so much stuff out there at the moment that it's tough to tell what is real and what is white noise. Still, I thought it was interesting enough to at least mention in the War Room.
6. Something other than a little birdie... let's call it a little dragon (anyone have a better suggestion?).... tells Orangebloods that 2023 five-star small forward Ronald Holland will likely make a commitment announcement on Friday and things look "very, very, very, very good for Texas". The 6-8, 185-pound Holland is thought to be down to the Longhorns and Arkansas, with UCLA running third.
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(Anwar)
The Big 12 is doing an excellent job of making sure its league can thrive after Texas and Oklahoma depart for the SEC.
After Texas and Oklahoma announced they would join the SEC in 2025, the Big 12 responded by adding BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and Central Florida. Those schools reached an exit agreement with the American Athletic Conference and will officially join the Big 12 on July 1, 2023. According to the Houston Chronicle, the Cougars will host Texas and TCU next season (an official announcement has not occurred).
Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark successfully moved up the date for negotiating with TV partners from 2024 to the summer of 2022. Yormark wanted to negotiate his league’s deal before the Pac-12. Yormark's move worked because the Big 12 reached a new deal this week. According to the Sports Business Journal, “The once-beleaguered Big 12 has stabilized its future by coming to terms with ESPN and Fox Sports on a six-year media rights agreement worth a total of $2.28B, an annual average of $380M, according to sources. The Big 12 has two years remaining on its current deal, which runs through the 2024-25 season at an annual average of $220M in its final years. The new six-year extension runs through 2030-31.”
That deal means Yormark can dangle a financial carrot in front of some of the remaining Pac-12 programs – Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah – to leave and join the Big 12.
In addition, several media outlets have reported that Gonzaga is exploring the possibility of joining the Big 12. Gonzaga’s athletic director and Yormark recently met in person to explore that option.
Texas fans should have one reaction to these occurrences... hope that Yormark continues to have success.
On the surface, it sounds crazy for Texas to care about the Big 12 setting itself up for life after the Longhorns. This partnership will come to an end. Why care about any move Yormark is making?
Here is why.
The people behind the scenes at Texas are optimistic that the more success Yormark has planned for his league’s future, the easier it might for both sides to formulate an early exit agreement.
Yormark was able to successfully negotiate a new TV contract that prevents the Big 12 from losing money after Texas leaves. In fact, the programs will earn more money.
Texas officials were concerned a revenue loss could result in bitterness from the Big 12. Instead, the Big 12 and its members can feel good about losing Texas and Oklahoma because of its new lucrative TV deal.
The reported exit fee for Texas and Oklahoma to leave the Big 12 is $80 million each. Is that the final number or could the exiting programs settle for a lower amount? That is what Texas officials are waiting to learn. Yormark could decide to negotiate a peaceful exit that allows the Big 12 to focus on its future without Texas and Oklahoma sooner than later.
In addition, Yormark must decide if the optics of punishing Texas and Oklahoma for leaving are worth it.
Texas and Oklahoma will forfeit their final two years of revenue distribution as a penalty for leaving the Big 12.
Here is what I reported in February:
For those who might be unfamiliar with the process, or need a reminder, Texas needs to give the Big 12 an 18-month notification of its intent to leave the Big 12 according to the conference bylaws.
Here is section 3.3:
“Notice Date and Interim Period. The “Notice Date” of the Withdrawal shall be the date of the occurrence of the event that causes the Withdrawal under Section 3.2 above. The “Effective Date” of the Withdrawal shall be the June 30 that next follows the end of the period that is 18 full calendar months following the Notice Date, unless an earlier date is established by a Supermajority of Disinterested Directors in its sole discretion. The period from the Notice Date to the Effective Date is referred to herein as the “Interim Period.”
Texas had not given the Big 12 its official “Notice Date.” The only official notification Texas has relayed to the Big 12 is its intent not to renew the grant of rights agreement.
I was told the main reason why Texas has not given its notice is because when the Big 12 receives that official statement, the conference can immediately begin withholding revenue distribution for the Longhorns (this includes Oklahoma, too). According the Associated Press, The Big 12 Conference distributed about $345 million of revenue to its 10 schools in 2021. Each school received around $34.5 million for the 2020-21 fiscal year.
Now, here is the kicker.
No matter what, Texas and Oklahoma will forfeit their final two years of revenue distribution as a penalty for leaving the Big 12.
It is outlined in Section 3.4 of the conference bylaws:
“Buyout Amount. Any Withdrawing Member shall pay to the Conference a commitment buyout fee (the “Buyout Amount”) in an amount equal to the sum of the amount of distributions that otherwise would be paid to the Member during the final two years of its membership in the Conference. The Withdrawing Member shall be deemed to have agreed to forfeit all distributions of any type that otherwise would have been made to the Withdrawing Member during the Interim Period (the “Distribution Withholding”) and the Conference shall not pay the Distribution Withholding to the Withdrawing Member. A Withdrawing Member agrees to pay to the Conference the amount by which the Buyout Amount exceeds the Distribution Withholding, with such payment to be made not later than the Effective Date.”
The Big 12 has added four new programs. Yormark has successfully negotiated a new TV deal. Even if the Big 12 does not add more programs, this is one hell of a successful transition.
If Yormark refuses to negotiate a buyout, Texas will not earn revenue from the Big 12 in 2023 and 2024. That would be a steep punishment from a conference that is exceeding every college football observer’s expectation as relates to life after Texas and Oklahoma.
Yormark has been extremely professional and respectful to the Longhorn officials since taking over this summer. He seemingly does not have any of the hostility that was expressed by former Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby.
Is Yormark content for Texas and Oklahoma not earning any revenue in 2023 and 2024?
Nobody associated with Texas knows what Yormark will eventually decide to do.
If Yormark does not want to wait for Texas and Oklahoma to leave after the 2024 season and wants the focus on the new Big 12, that could create a negotiation window for the Longhorns to leave before 2025. That would put entering the SEC in 2023 or 2024 on the table.
If not, Texas will enter the SEC in 2025 as the last resort.
For now, hope that Yormark continues to have success.
It could create a quicker path to the SEC for the Longhorns.
Also, when I asked about the hurdles that television networks, especially Fox, might produce if Yormark clears the roads for Texas and OU to depart, there was optimism that all of the doors could open in a way that would satisfy all parties.
I will keep you posted.
*****
(From Alex)
I was able to catch up with one source from the NFL scouting world for a quick conversation this week. I was most interested in finding out from him what the NFL thought of Bijan Robinson and where he predicted that Bijan would end up being drafted in the spring. I was a little surprised by this answer, as well as his preference for actually talking about another Longhorn who will also be entering the draft in 2023:
He said that Bijan is a great player and everyone knows he is a great player. He is in Heisman consideration for a reason. "But it's not a lock he'll be a first-round pick," he said, "Breece Hall wasn't a first-round pick." He talked about the fact that more NFL teams are realizing (sometimes through their growing analytics departments) that spending a first-round draft pick on a running back hasn't really been a plus-EV proposition lately. No team did in 2022, even though there were really good options like the aforementioned Breece Hall and Kenny Walker III on the board. In fact, all the teams in the last three drafts who have taken running backs in Round 1 all had unique circumstances.
In 2021, the Steelers took Najee Harris in an easily predicted move to select a player they viewed with similar potential to the departed Le'Veon Bell be that three-down, pass-catching weapon they had been missing badly the last few years. In the same draft, the Jaguars took Travis Etienne with the 25th selection because Urban Meyer panicked after seeing the player he coveted most, Kadarius Toney, go off the board to the Giants a few picks before. He settled for his second-choice of novelty playmaker. In 2020, the Chiefs -- a team at the time not viewed as having many true, glaring needs -- went with the preference of QB Patrick Mahomes to select Clyde Edwards-Helaire who had just caught 56 footballs for the national champ LSU Tigers in 2019.
To his point, none of those picks are looking like excellent value. While Travis Etienne has been coming on lately with James Robinson's departure, the Jags certainly have other areas of the roster that need addressing. Najee Harris has regressed while the Steelers roster continues to have major holes, and CEH was not even a starter in his last game as a Chief, ceding that role to rookie 7th-round pick Isiah Pacheco.
"If you can get Jonathan Taylor in Round 2, or Kenny Walker or Breece ... Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Dalvin was a second round pick. If you can get those guys there, you can get a guy like Bijan there unless (there is a special circumstance)."
This is just one scout's opinion, and who knows? Bijan could be a Top 10 pick, but it's an interesting perspective.
"I think Bijan and Roschon (Johnson) will be drafted a lot closer together than you'd think," he said.
He said that scouts are very, very found of Roschon Johnson and his style of play, intellect and attitude. When they visit UT for practices, they see his leadership and hear about it constantly from coaches. "He's probably going to be a Day 2 (Rounds 2 or 3) pick," this person said. "He's going to be at (one of the all-star games) and you could really see his buzz start to pick up then in the media but (the scouting world) is already on him."
I said that it's true that Roschon Johnson really could have been a lot higher-profile if he didn't have to share a backfield with Bijan all this time. He said, "but that's not necessarily a negative. We've seen his skillset without him having to put so much tread on his tires.
*****
(From Suchomel)
We’re still keeping an eye on the Malik Muhammad situation after last weekend’s official visit to Texas A&M. Perhaps more accurately, we’re watching it to see what happens if the UT commitment takes an Alabama official visit in December, as expected.
It sounds like the A&M visit went well and Muhammad really enjoyed himself, but we continue to hear that Bama is the bigger threat to the Longhorns. With about 7 weeks on the calendar before the early signing period, this one could still hold some interesting twists and turns as Texas tries to keep Muhammad in the fold, and the two parties try to make sure they’re both on the same page.
Sources that communicated with Muhammad this week feel Texas still has the lead coming out of the A&M visit. The UT staff will work to get Muhammad back on campus for one of its remaining games, but some of that will depend on SOC’s upcoming playoff schedule. As we’ve mentioned, Muhammad has been pretty open about a number of factors impacting his final decision, including NIL opportunities. There are some potentially choppy waters that will have to be navigated, but we continue to hear that the ball is in UT’s court for the Rivals100 DB.
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Texas put an offer on the table for Georgia defensive back Tyler Scott on Sunday. Related to Muhammad? Related to Javien Toviano? Related to Derek Williams? Texas just looking to fill out its DB class? Probably a little bit of all of it.
Scott took an official visit to Auburn last weekend. He’ll be at Texas next weekend for the TCU game on an official visit. A trip to Alabama is slated for later in November. Scott is a guy who has really seen his recruitment take off this fall but with him quickly setting up the UT offer after getting the Texas offer, it’s clear his interest is sincere. We’ll have a better gauge of the Longhorns’ standing after he makes it in for his official visit.
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Texas offered Waco Connally defender Jelani McDonald in October and he was on campus shortly after for the Longhorns’ home game against Iowa State. McDonald would then wind up decommitting from Oklahoma State early last week. Doesn’t take a brain surgeon to realize that Texas is a major factor in this one.
McDonald will be in Austin next weekend for the TCU game for an official visit. That’ll be his third (he’s already tripped to Oklahoma State and Colorado State), leaving him two more if he wants to use them.
As of this week, McDonald said the Texas visit is the only one he has scheduled. That can’t be a bad sign, nor can the fact that McDonald told OB it’s important to his family to have him close to home, and his family’s input will carry some weight.
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Defensive lineman Markis Deal won’t be able to make it in for the TCU game, but it still appears to be good news for the Longhorns with this one.
Deal was planning to take his UT official visit for next weekend, but said that he’ll likely have to reschedule since Naaman Forest will probably be in a playoff game that Saturday. He and the UT staff are trying to figure out another date.
Obviously, getting Deal on campus next weekend would have been ideal but this is still a positive update. The Rivals250 member had been debating between Texas and Oklahoma for his final official visit, and the Longhorns won out. TCU, Georgia (and to a lesser extent, USC and Arkansas) continue to factor into this one but Texas sits in a good spot as Bo Davis looks to add interior DL players.
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Speaking of interior d-linemen, in case you missed our note earlier this week, JUCO defensive tackle Derick Hunter will be in Austin next weekend to watch the TCU game. Hunter told us a few weeks ago, shortly after Texas offered, he’d make it to UT for an unofficial visit and then return for an official visit in December. That plan is officially in play.
Hunter has taken recent visits to Tennessee and LSU so the competition is heating up in this one, but him making his way to Austin on his own dime is a good sign for Texas.
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Javien Toviano does as good of a job as anyone in this class at keeping people guessing on his intentions. The five-star corner tweeted on Thursday that he’ll be at LSU this weekend for an official visit. That trip follows an unofficial visit to Baton Rouge that Toviano took earlier this fall.
Could Texas get Toviano in Austin next weekend for the TCU game? The staff will try, and anything’s possible, but with Toviano we probably won’t know for sure until late next week. With him not having visited UT since pretty early in the summer, this one feels like it’s becoming more and more of a long-shot.
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Nothing new to report on Anthony Hill from what we mentioned last week, when sources close to the 5-star linebacker told OB that a Texas game visit is still being considered. We’ve had our eye on the TCU game if that trip is going to happen … it’s a Saturday night game, Texas is making a big recruiting push for that weekend, etc. We’ll follow up next weekend to see if any plans have been finalized, but things are still up in the air late this week.
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For those keeping score, offensive lineman Vysen Lang will announce his decision next week. The Longhorns are in his final four, but with Lang not having taken a UT official visit (he did take an unofficial visit in the spring), there’s probably not much use in watching this one too closely. Tennessee seems to be the trendy pick.
*****
(Cole)
https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/2023/cedric-baxter-258250
https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/2023/payton-kirkland-259931
I will be out in Orlando on Friday to check in with Texas commit Cedric Baxter and Payton Kirkland. A source has continued to tell OB that Baxter is fully confident in his pledge to the Longhorns, and Texas is in a good position to hold onto his pledge.
That said, it is difficult to completely ignore the two recent Florida State visits that Baxter has taken, including the most recent official visit. Baxter had been committed to the Seminoles previously, and FSU has turned up the head in their pursuit.
The source pointed to Baxter’s close relationship with running backs coach Tashard Choice as a significant factor in Baxter’s commitment to Texas. The two are very tight and Baxter wants to play for him on the collegiate level. Bijan Robinson continuing to thrive doesn’t hurt, either.
We’ll have coverage on both Baxter and Kirkland tomorrow and this weekend.
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https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/2024/colin-simmons-272598
Texas continues to aggressively recruit 5-star Duncanville defensive end Colin Simmons. Simmons is a true blue chip pass rusher, and he has always told OB that Texas is one of his top schools.
Getting Simmons on campus this season will be important for the Longhorns as they battle much of the nation for his commitment. He will be at Georgia-Tennessee this weekend for the SEC matchup.
Assistant Chris Gilbert has done a fantastic job of building a bond with Simmons during the recruiting process. Simmons said that he talks with the Texas staff nearly daily and even said that Texas will always be included in his top group of schools.
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https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/harlem-berry-291151
2025 RB Harlem Berry has already established himself as a premier prospect nationally. He hold offers from national programs and is ranked inside the initial Rivals100 for his class. Texas just recently extended an offer to the Louisiana native, and that has caught his attention.
It was a great feeling to know a school like Texas is taking a chance in me,” Berry said about picking up the offer.
Getting Berry on campus will be the next step for Tashard Choice and the Longhorns as they recruit one of the top running backs nationally.
*****
(Keenan)
Texas offered 2025 St. John’s F Sebastian Williams-Adams. So far, he’s also been offered by Texas A&M, UH, and Kansas State. The 6’8 small forward is considered a four-star by most sites.
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2024 Cam Scott was on campus this week for an OV with Coach Beard. The 6’6 SG prospect from Lexington, SC also has offers from Texas Tech, Tennessee, Clemson, FSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, and others.
https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/cameron-scott-273632
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Cedric Lath visited campus this week as well, a 2023 big man. The 6’9, 230-lb center has offers from TCU and UCLA as well.
https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/cedric-lath-298081
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Texas’ Tyrese Hunter was nominated for the Bob Cousy Point Guard of the Year Award preseason watch list. Here are the other candidates:
Jahvon Quinerly, Alabama
Caleb Love, North Carolina
Kerr Kriisa, Arizona
Grant Sherfield, Oklahoma
Wendell Green, Jr., Auburnz
Max Abmas, Oral Roberts
Isaiah Stevens, Colorado State
Will Richardson, Oregon
Ryan Nembhard, Creighton
Yuri Collins, St. Louis
Antoine Davis, Detroit Mercy
Mike Miles, Jr., TCU
Jeremy Roach, Duke
Sahvir Wheeler, Kentucky
Jordan Walker, UAB
Darius McGhee, Liberty
Tyger Campbell, UCLA
Kendric Davis, Memphis
Kihei Clark, Virginia
