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With Warren Roberson's commitment to the Longhorns, it's time to start putting 2023 recruiting completely in the books. Where should the primary focus be for the Longhorns positionally as the program navigates spring football, the transfer market and 2024/2025 recruiting? Today, we'll do a quick exercise regarding current and future scholarship allocations heading into the 2023 season to identify where the Longhorns' biggest strengths and areas of opportunity lie from a roster-building standpoint.
For this exercise, we'll divide the team up into the following positions:
QB
RB
TE
WR
OL
DL
DE/EDGE/HYBRID OLB
INSIDE LB
NICKEL
CORNER
SAFETY
If we think about the makeup of an actual football team of 22 total players, 11 on offense, 11 on defense, then a distribution of scholarships to mirror the actual on-field need would technically look like this:
QB (1)
RB (1)
TE (1.5)
WR (2.5)
OL (5)
INTERIOR DL (2)
DE/EDGE/HYBRID OLB (2)
INSIDE LB (2)
NICKEL (1)
CORNER (2)
SAFETY (2)
Even though those are the starting positions, though, it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be how you build a team. One thing to account for is the fact that numerous running backs will need to be used through the course of a game. One half offensive lineman in the tally can be offset by a half an extra running back because most interior OL players can play multiple positions along the offensive line. Furthermore, you clearly need to recruit more than an equal share to on-field distribution at WR. Even though it's a toss-up under Sark whether Texas will have 2 or 3 on the field at the same time, it's a necessity to always strive for a roster where you have three WRs you really like should the game script dictate a move to heavy 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) instead of 12 (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR). Bumping that allocation up from 2.5 to 3 makes sense for this exercise for that reason, while another half is taken away from the OL as many tackle prospects have versatility to bump in to guard. Defensively, a nickel is not always in play during base downs (even though nickel is basically Texas "true" base defense) and is generally sourced from either the group that comes in as corners or as safeties. So if we get rid of the nickel designation -- knowing that this position will be addressed through those two core positions -- we can add .5 to both corner and safety. So, now, our back-of-the-napkin optimal distribution of scholarships to mirror on-field needs would look like this:
QB (1) - 4.5%
RB (1.5) - 6.8%
WR (3) - 13.6%
TE (1.5) - 6.8%
OL (4) - 18.2%
INTERIOR DL (2) - 9.1%
DE/EDGE/HYBRID OLB (2) - 9.1%
INSIDE LB (2) - 9.1%
CORNER/NICKEL (2.5) - 11.4%
SAFETY/NICKEL (2.5) - 11.4%
Currently, the projected scholarships as we wrap up traditional 2023 recruiting heading into the new season look like this:
QB (4)
Quinn Ewers, Charles Wright, Maalik Murphy, Arch Manning
RB (5)
Keilan Robinson, Jaydon Blue, Jonathan Brooks, Tre Wisner, Cedric Baxter
WR (11)
Jordan Whittington, Isaiah Neyor, Xavier Worthy, AD Mitchell, Brennen Thompson, Savion Red, Jaden Alexis, Casey Cain, Ryan Niblett, Johntay Cook, Deandre Moore
TE (5)
Gunnar Helm, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Juan Davis, Will Randle, Spencer Shannon
OL (17)
Christian Jones, Hayden Conner, Jake Majors, Sawyer Goram-Welch, Kelvin Banks, Cam Williams, Max Merrill, Malik Agbo, Cole Hutson, DJ Campbell, Neto Umeozulu, Conner Robertson, Andre Cojoe, Trevor Goosby, Payton Kirkland, Connor Stroh, Jaydon Chatman
Interior DL (8)
T'Vondre Sweat, Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton, Byron Murphy, Austin Bryant, Zac Swanson, Kristopher Ross, Sydir Mitchell
DE/EDGE/Hybrid OLB (9)
Barryn Sorrell, Justice Finkley, Ethan Burke, J'Mond Tapp, Jaray Bledsoe, Colton Vasek, Derrion Gullette, Tausili Akana, Billy Walton
Inside LB (9)
Jaylon Ford, Jett Bush, David Gbenda, Morice Blackwell, Trevell Johnson, Derick Brown, Anthony Hill, S'Maje Burrell, Liona Lefau
CB/Nickel (9)
Jahdae Barron, Ryan Watts, Austin Jordan, Terrence Brooks. Jaylon Guilbeau, Xavion Brice, Malik Muhammad, Jelani McDonald, Gavin Holmes
Safety/Nickel (8)
Jerrin Thompson, Kitan Crawford, Jalen Catalon, Michael Taaffe, BJ Allen, Larry Turner-Gooden, Derek Williams, Warren Roberson
So, now let's look at the expected percentage of scholarship allocation versus actual:
QB (1) - 4.5% expected - 4.7% actual (.2% SURPLUS)
RB (1.5) - 6.8% expected - 5.9% actual (.9% DEFICIT)
WR (3) - 13.6% expected - 12.9% actual (.7% DEFICIT)
TE (1.5) - 6.8% expected - 5.9% actual (.9% DEFICIT)
OL (4) - 18.2% expected - 20% actual (1.8% SURPLUS)
INTERIOR DL (2) - 9.1% expected - 9.4% actual (.3% SURPLUS)
DE/EDGE/HYBRID OLB (2) - 9.1% expected - 10.6% actual (1.5% SURPLUS)
INSIDE LB (2) - 9.1% expected - 10.6% actual (1.5% SURPLUS)
CORNER/NICKEL (2.5) - 11.4% expected - 10.6% actual (.8% DEFICIT)
SAFETY/NICKEL (2.5) - 11.4% expected - 9.4% actual (2% DEFICIT)
First off, I certainly did not expect the numbers to be this close to the percentages implied by the common-sense rationale that scholarship allocation should mirror positional utilization on-field. My first observation is that the staff has done a good job during its time in Austin building what looks to be a precision-crafted balance positionally within the roster.
The second takeaway is that Texas' biggest surplus positions aren't the ones you'd think are the strongest. Certainly, confidence has grown about the offensive line and the best part about the unit is that it is a YOUNG surplus of talent. Only one senior in that big group of 17 and only 3 juniors. Even better, the best talent among that group is among the younger players who still have a lot of time left on the 40. This - youth-wise - cannot be said about the inside linebacker corps that shows a similar surplus, who will be losing at least one-third of its players at the end of 2023 in Ford, Gbenda and Bush.
The most shocking is the edge position looking so well-stocked. It has been a disaster at Texas the whole time Sark has been in Austin, first with Ray Thornton in 2021 and then in 2022 with a hapless Ovie Oghuofo (who was at least better than Thornton, but that's not saying much). It's clear that an effort has been made to load up that pipe with as much talent as possible to throw all the possible edge-rush spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks. Given the talent (especially among the incoming 2023 group and guys like Burke, Tapp and Bledsoe that have either flashed on-field in 2022 or reportedly in practice during different periods of the 2022 season), it's highly likely that Texas will be out of the edge-rush doldrums it's endured recently sooner than later.
Finally, it's only fitting to return to where we started: today's commitment from Warren Roberson. That is a 4-star safety at a position that is still the shakiest even counting his commitment. Now, we can always argue about Jelani McDonald and whether he belongs in the safety or the corner column, but after seeing him play outside corner versus some of the best high school receivers America has to offer at All-American practices, I'm not giving up on the dream of having that kind of athletic beast playing for you at his most valuable position, which would clearly be outside corner if he shows himself capable on a college football field. So, without Roberson, we'd be looking at a 3.2% deficit at the safety spot versus expectation, and considering that 3 of the players that comprise that room (Thompson, Catalon and Crawford) are all seniors in 2023 that will be gone after next season, it makes today's big addition all the more important.
Find Your Perfect Franchise at MyPerfectFranchise.Net
Orangebloods Owned! Contact Andy Luedecke (aka @widespread panic) anytime at:
aluedecke@myperfectfranchise.net
(404) 973-9901
www.myperfectfranchise.net
With Warren Roberson's commitment to the Longhorns, it's time to start putting 2023 recruiting completely in the books. Where should the primary focus be for the Longhorns positionally as the program navigates spring football, the transfer market and 2024/2025 recruiting? Today, we'll do a quick exercise regarding current and future scholarship allocations heading into the 2023 season to identify where the Longhorns' biggest strengths and areas of opportunity lie from a roster-building standpoint.
For this exercise, we'll divide the team up into the following positions:
QB
RB
TE
WR
OL
DL
DE/EDGE/HYBRID OLB
INSIDE LB
NICKEL
CORNER
SAFETY
If we think about the makeup of an actual football team of 22 total players, 11 on offense, 11 on defense, then a distribution of scholarships to mirror the actual on-field need would technically look like this:
QB (1)
RB (1)
TE (1.5)
WR (2.5)
OL (5)
INTERIOR DL (2)
DE/EDGE/HYBRID OLB (2)
INSIDE LB (2)
NICKEL (1)
CORNER (2)
SAFETY (2)
Even though those are the starting positions, though, it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be how you build a team. One thing to account for is the fact that numerous running backs will need to be used through the course of a game. One half offensive lineman in the tally can be offset by a half an extra running back because most interior OL players can play multiple positions along the offensive line. Furthermore, you clearly need to recruit more than an equal share to on-field distribution at WR. Even though it's a toss-up under Sark whether Texas will have 2 or 3 on the field at the same time, it's a necessity to always strive for a roster where you have three WRs you really like should the game script dictate a move to heavy 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) instead of 12 (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR). Bumping that allocation up from 2.5 to 3 makes sense for this exercise for that reason, while another half is taken away from the OL as many tackle prospects have versatility to bump in to guard. Defensively, a nickel is not always in play during base downs (even though nickel is basically Texas "true" base defense) and is generally sourced from either the group that comes in as corners or as safeties. So if we get rid of the nickel designation -- knowing that this position will be addressed through those two core positions -- we can add .5 to both corner and safety. So, now, our back-of-the-napkin optimal distribution of scholarships to mirror on-field needs would look like this:
QB (1) - 4.5%
RB (1.5) - 6.8%
WR (3) - 13.6%
TE (1.5) - 6.8%
OL (4) - 18.2%
INTERIOR DL (2) - 9.1%
DE/EDGE/HYBRID OLB (2) - 9.1%
INSIDE LB (2) - 9.1%
CORNER/NICKEL (2.5) - 11.4%
SAFETY/NICKEL (2.5) - 11.4%
Currently, the projected scholarships as we wrap up traditional 2023 recruiting heading into the new season look like this:
QB (4)
Quinn Ewers, Charles Wright, Maalik Murphy, Arch Manning
RB (5)
Keilan Robinson, Jaydon Blue, Jonathan Brooks, Tre Wisner, Cedric Baxter
WR (11)
Jordan Whittington, Isaiah Neyor, Xavier Worthy, AD Mitchell, Brennen Thompson, Savion Red, Jaden Alexis, Casey Cain, Ryan Niblett, Johntay Cook, Deandre Moore
TE (5)
Gunnar Helm, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Juan Davis, Will Randle, Spencer Shannon
OL (17)
Christian Jones, Hayden Conner, Jake Majors, Sawyer Goram-Welch, Kelvin Banks, Cam Williams, Max Merrill, Malik Agbo, Cole Hutson, DJ Campbell, Neto Umeozulu, Conner Robertson, Andre Cojoe, Trevor Goosby, Payton Kirkland, Connor Stroh, Jaydon Chatman
Interior DL (8)
T'Vondre Sweat, Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton, Byron Murphy, Austin Bryant, Zac Swanson, Kristopher Ross, Sydir Mitchell
DE/EDGE/Hybrid OLB (9)
Barryn Sorrell, Justice Finkley, Ethan Burke, J'Mond Tapp, Jaray Bledsoe, Colton Vasek, Derrion Gullette, Tausili Akana, Billy Walton
Inside LB (9)
Jaylon Ford, Jett Bush, David Gbenda, Morice Blackwell, Trevell Johnson, Derick Brown, Anthony Hill, S'Maje Burrell, Liona Lefau
CB/Nickel (9)
Jahdae Barron, Ryan Watts, Austin Jordan, Terrence Brooks. Jaylon Guilbeau, Xavion Brice, Malik Muhammad, Jelani McDonald, Gavin Holmes
Safety/Nickel (8)
Jerrin Thompson, Kitan Crawford, Jalen Catalon, Michael Taaffe, BJ Allen, Larry Turner-Gooden, Derek Williams, Warren Roberson
So, now let's look at the expected percentage of scholarship allocation versus actual:
QB (1) - 4.5% expected - 4.7% actual (.2% SURPLUS)
RB (1.5) - 6.8% expected - 5.9% actual (.9% DEFICIT)
WR (3) - 13.6% expected - 12.9% actual (.7% DEFICIT)
TE (1.5) - 6.8% expected - 5.9% actual (.9% DEFICIT)
OL (4) - 18.2% expected - 20% actual (1.8% SURPLUS)
INTERIOR DL (2) - 9.1% expected - 9.4% actual (.3% SURPLUS)
DE/EDGE/HYBRID OLB (2) - 9.1% expected - 10.6% actual (1.5% SURPLUS)
INSIDE LB (2) - 9.1% expected - 10.6% actual (1.5% SURPLUS)
CORNER/NICKEL (2.5) - 11.4% expected - 10.6% actual (.8% DEFICIT)
SAFETY/NICKEL (2.5) - 11.4% expected - 9.4% actual (2% DEFICIT)
First off, I certainly did not expect the numbers to be this close to the percentages implied by the common-sense rationale that scholarship allocation should mirror positional utilization on-field. My first observation is that the staff has done a good job during its time in Austin building what looks to be a precision-crafted balance positionally within the roster.
The second takeaway is that Texas' biggest surplus positions aren't the ones you'd think are the strongest. Certainly, confidence has grown about the offensive line and the best part about the unit is that it is a YOUNG surplus of talent. Only one senior in that big group of 17 and only 3 juniors. Even better, the best talent among that group is among the younger players who still have a lot of time left on the 40. This - youth-wise - cannot be said about the inside linebacker corps that shows a similar surplus, who will be losing at least one-third of its players at the end of 2023 in Ford, Gbenda and Bush.
The most shocking is the edge position looking so well-stocked. It has been a disaster at Texas the whole time Sark has been in Austin, first with Ray Thornton in 2021 and then in 2022 with a hapless Ovie Oghuofo (who was at least better than Thornton, but that's not saying much). It's clear that an effort has been made to load up that pipe with as much talent as possible to throw all the possible edge-rush spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks. Given the talent (especially among the incoming 2023 group and guys like Burke, Tapp and Bledsoe that have either flashed on-field in 2022 or reportedly in practice during different periods of the 2022 season), it's highly likely that Texas will be out of the edge-rush doldrums it's endured recently sooner than later.
Finally, it's only fitting to return to where we started: today's commitment from Warren Roberson. That is a 4-star safety at a position that is still the shakiest even counting his commitment. Now, we can always argue about Jelani McDonald and whether he belongs in the safety or the corner column, but after seeing him play outside corner versus some of the best high school receivers America has to offer at All-American practices, I'm not giving up on the dream of having that kind of athletic beast playing for you at his most valuable position, which would clearly be outside corner if he shows himself capable on a college football field. So, without Roberson, we'd be looking at a 3.2% deficit at the safety spot versus expectation, and considering that 3 of the players that comprise that room (Thompson, Catalon and Crawford) are all seniors in 2023 that will be gone after next season, it makes today's big addition all the more important.
