Being on the road and traveling can be fun. New places, different food and interesting things to do. Having travelled extensively around the world, I get it, being on the road is fun. After a while though, it can get old. You start longing for some routine, your comfy bed, the ability to hit up your favorite breakfast or lunch spot. You begin to realize that home is where the heart is.
Through the first 31 games of the season, Texas has played 12 true road games and 6 neutral site games, while only playing 13 at home. In the final 25 games of the season, Texas will play 18 of them at home. On Tuesday, Tristan Stevens jokingly said that the Horns might not have played enough games at home, but that it feels amazing to be back in Austin and in their own beds. In @Travis Galey Wednesday column Just a Bit Outside, he talked about some home cooking and this weekend, Texas has to utilize all the benefits of home cooking. The pitchers must rely on their defense and the size of Disch-Falk Field to control a Horn Frog team that does not hit for a lot of power. In addition, Texas has to be prepared defensively to handle small ball that we should see from TCU as they look to get on base and put pressure on the defense. Most of all, Texas needs to feed off the power of sold out crowds at Disch-Falk Field to walk away with at least a series win this weekend, which also happens to be the first Big 12 series of the weekend at home.
If you have not seen it already, check out the latest episode of Around the HORNS by @AaronLittleOB and myself where we talk about the series against OU, preview the series against TCU and take a look at the what is going on around college baseball nationally. - Around the HORNS
Anyways, lets take a look at the players to watch for this weekend against the Frogs and what kind of team Texas will be facing.
#7 TEXAS (22-9, 3-3) vs. TCU (20-9, 6-3)
April 8-10, 2022
Where: UFCU Disch-Falk Field
Time: Friday at 6:30 pm; Saturday at 5 pm; Sunday at 12 pm
TV: Longhorn Network/ESPNU
Radio: 104.9 FM The Horn/1260 AM
All-time series with TCU: Texas leads, 230-75-2
2021 Season Results:
Texas won 2 of 3 against TCU which ended up being the tie breaker for the regular season Big 12 championship due to both teams going 17-7 in conference play. All three games were very close, with Texas winning 5-4 on Friday, losing 2-1 on Saturday in which Stevens got no run support, but bounced back on Sunday to win the game 9-3 and take the series. Thankfully the Horns will not have to face ace Austin Krob who shut them down last year during the 2-1 loss.
2022 Season:
So far this season, TCU has taken 2 of 3 from Baylor, swept K-State and lost 2 of 3 to a very athletic West Virginia team. Over the past games they are 5-4 though as they have struggled to push across runs the plate. In those 4 loses (ACU, UTSA, WVUx2), the Frogs have given up an average of 6.5 runs. This is a Horn Frog team that has been solid this year, but not really spectacular. They do not have any high profile series wins but they are also not a team that is easily swept or beaten. Of the 20 wins TCU has, 12 are from Q4 teams and 15 are from Q3/Q4 teams. In addition, TCU has a losing record to Q1 and Q2 teams both.
PITCHING MATCHUPS
FRIDAY–Texas LHP Pete Hansen (5-0, 2.51) vs. TCU RHP Riley Cornelio (3-1, 3.10)
SATURDAY–Texas RHP Tristan Stevens (4-2, 3.16) vs. TCU RHP Marcelo Perez (2-1, 2.16)
SUNDAY–Texas LHP Lucas Gordon (2-1, 2.53) vs. TCU RHP Brett Walker (3-1, 4.89)
Pitching Breakdown:
Key to Pitching this weekend:
Hitting Breakdown:
Comparing Stats (let's get nerdy): TL;DR below
Summarized breakdown - If Texas continues to play its game and not give up walks, this is absolutely a series Texas can and should win. Hansen and Stevens will still need to go at least 6 IP and avoid free passes. If they can do that with the way Texas has been hitting, they could even sweep. I personally am not ready to give Texas the benefit of the doubt when it comes to a sweep though because of how close the prior games have been between TCU and Texas, as well as keeping in my the issues the Horns have had with the bullpen. ELO gives Texas a 66% change to win the series while RPI gives Texas a 61% change to win it, but either way, I fully expect some close hard fought games.
@AaronLittleOB and I both predict a series win over the Frogs, but what a huge shot to the Texas Baseball momentum train if they could pull off a sweep.
Follow along for play by play this weekend and also on twitter for updates!
Oh and in case you missed it - Happy Opening Day!
Through the first 31 games of the season, Texas has played 12 true road games and 6 neutral site games, while only playing 13 at home. In the final 25 games of the season, Texas will play 18 of them at home. On Tuesday, Tristan Stevens jokingly said that the Horns might not have played enough games at home, but that it feels amazing to be back in Austin and in their own beds. In @Travis Galey Wednesday column Just a Bit Outside, he talked about some home cooking and this weekend, Texas has to utilize all the benefits of home cooking. The pitchers must rely on their defense and the size of Disch-Falk Field to control a Horn Frog team that does not hit for a lot of power. In addition, Texas has to be prepared defensively to handle small ball that we should see from TCU as they look to get on base and put pressure on the defense. Most of all, Texas needs to feed off the power of sold out crowds at Disch-Falk Field to walk away with at least a series win this weekend, which also happens to be the first Big 12 series of the weekend at home.
If you have not seen it already, check out the latest episode of Around the HORNS by @AaronLittleOB and myself where we talk about the series against OU, preview the series against TCU and take a look at the what is going on around college baseball nationally. - Around the HORNS
Anyways, lets take a look at the players to watch for this weekend against the Frogs and what kind of team Texas will be facing.
#7 TEXAS (22-9, 3-3) vs. TCU (20-9, 6-3)
April 8-10, 2022
Where: UFCU Disch-Falk Field
Time: Friday at 6:30 pm; Saturday at 5 pm; Sunday at 12 pm
TV: Longhorn Network/ESPNU
Radio: 104.9 FM The Horn/1260 AM
All-time series with TCU: Texas leads, 230-75-2
2021 Season Results:
Texas won 2 of 3 against TCU which ended up being the tie breaker for the regular season Big 12 championship due to both teams going 17-7 in conference play. All three games were very close, with Texas winning 5-4 on Friday, losing 2-1 on Saturday in which Stevens got no run support, but bounced back on Sunday to win the game 9-3 and take the series. Thankfully the Horns will not have to face ace Austin Krob who shut them down last year during the 2-1 loss.
2022 Season:
So far this season, TCU has taken 2 of 3 from Baylor, swept K-State and lost 2 of 3 to a very athletic West Virginia team. Over the past games they are 5-4 though as they have struggled to push across runs the plate. In those 4 loses (ACU, UTSA, WVUx2), the Frogs have given up an average of 6.5 runs. This is a Horn Frog team that has been solid this year, but not really spectacular. They do not have any high profile series wins but they are also not a team that is easily swept or beaten. Of the 20 wins TCU has, 12 are from Q4 teams and 15 are from Q3/Q4 teams. In addition, TCU has a losing record to Q1 and Q2 teams both.
PITCHING MATCHUPS
FRIDAY–Texas LHP Pete Hansen (5-0, 2.51) vs. TCU RHP Riley Cornelio (3-1, 3.10)
SATURDAY–Texas RHP Tristan Stevens (4-2, 3.16) vs. TCU RHP Marcelo Perez (2-1, 2.16)
SUNDAY–Texas LHP Lucas Gordon (2-1, 2.53) vs. TCU RHP Brett Walker (3-1, 4.89)
Pitching Breakdown:
- Friday starter Cornelio has been very good for TCU this season with his only down game coming against a talented Kentucky squad. He has averaged 6 strike outs per game, so he has not been a huge strike out guy, but he does not give up a ton of hits either.
- First start for Marcelo Perez, who has been a pen guy his entire career. He did pitch 6 2/3 against West Virginia so he has been stretched out but all of his prior outings have been 3 or less. Coming into a game in relief is much different than going through routines and prepping to start a game. Perez is starting this weekend after supplanting Cam Brown who is the regular Tuesday night starter and has struggled as of late. The Frogs were hoping to have ace Austin Krob back by the Texas series but he still appears to be 2 weeks away.
- Brett Walker is an experienced pitcher but he has been averaging 4+ ER over his last four starts, so he is a guy that Texas should be able to pressure and have success against.
Key to Pitching this weekend:
- TCU is #4 in the nation in base on balls. Texas as a staff is not bad, ranking at #27 in the nation in walks allowed, but the staff MUST limit free passes this weekend as TCU also likes to run. Specifically, Nunez is 17-17 this season in stolen bases and due to hitting consistency issues, the Frogs use the running game to manufacture runs and put pressure on opposing staff.
- For Texas hitters, they have to just keep doing what they have been doing. Get on base, hit balls to the gap and mix in a few HRs.
Hitting Breakdown:
- TCU hitting and production is heavily slanted to the top of the lineup and they do have some talented hitters, but the bottom of the lineup has definitely been inconsistent.
- Sacco (.352), Bishop (.327), Taylor (.327) and Nunez (.312) are the guys to watch out with Taylor and Nunez being especially dangerous.
- Taylor is by far the most dangerous of the four from a talent perspective
- Team Batting Average .272
- Team OPS .805
- Nunez is 17-17 on the season in stolen bases
- As a team, Frogs are 45-52 on the season in stolen bases
- Sacco and Taylor are both tied at 5 home runs a piece, but as a team, they only have 22 on the year, so they do not hit for a lot of power
Comparing Stats (let's get nerdy): TL;DR below
| Texas RPI #4 | TCU RPI #37 |
| Texas SOS #11 | TCU SOS #74 |
| Texas BA #9 - .321 | TCU BA #138 - .272 |
| Texas Hits #3 - 353 | TCU Hits #95 - 262 |
| Texas HRs #11 - 50 | TCU HRs #154 - 22 |
| Texas Walks #24 | TCU Walks #4 |
| Texas ERA #22 - 3.60 | TCU ERA #75 - 4.44 |
| Texas WHIP 1.22 | TCU WHIP 1.41 |
| Scoring Margin #11 - 4.4 | Scoring Margin #40 - 2.6 |
| Hits per Game #11 - 11.4 | Hits per Game #83 - 8.4 |
| Runs Allowed per Game #13 - 3.9 | Runs Allowed per Game #56 - 4.8 |
| Hits Allowed per Game #23 - 7.4 | Hits Allowed per Game # |
| Walks Allowed per Game #27 - 3.34 per game | Walks Allowed per Game # |
Summarized breakdown - If Texas continues to play its game and not give up walks, this is absolutely a series Texas can and should win. Hansen and Stevens will still need to go at least 6 IP and avoid free passes. If they can do that with the way Texas has been hitting, they could even sweep. I personally am not ready to give Texas the benefit of the doubt when it comes to a sweep though because of how close the prior games have been between TCU and Texas, as well as keeping in my the issues the Horns have had with the bullpen. ELO gives Texas a 66% change to win the series while RPI gives Texas a 61% change to win it, but either way, I fully expect some close hard fought games.
@AaronLittleOB and I both predict a series win over the Frogs, but what a huge shot to the Texas Baseball momentum train if they could pull off a sweep.
Follow along for play by play this weekend and also on twitter for updates!
Oh and in case you missed it - Happy Opening Day!
