Yeah and an elite coach won’t take the job. High expectations and having to go head to head with Saban every year it’s career suicide. Saban and Bama have really hurt the sec in terms of retaining quality coaches.Sumlin isn't a championship caliber coach but he also isn't bad enough to let the bottom completely fall out. They'll be in a tough spot because his record won't be that bad, but it will never be great either.
They could lose any of these except NM, but they are all winnable as well. I agree 3-2 at least.