Ranking returning production for every FBS team: Who should improve, regress in 2025
What teams have the most (and least) coming back, and what will it all mean next season?
Of note:
#1 Clemson
#6 A&M
#10 Oklahoma
#35 Alabama
#103 Texas
#105 Georgia
As a reminder: returning production isn't a raw percentage (e.g., it's not the percent of players returning). What Connelly does is build a statistical model that correlates the value of last season's production by a player (e.g., rushing yards, passing yards, snaps, etc.) to wins in order to estimate the value of the returning production. He has also adapted the approach to account for transfers' production as well. So, for example, returning QB stats tend to be very strongly weighted because having a returning starter tends to be very valuable.
Now, no one should be surprised our returning production number is low - we lost our starting QB, I think our top 3 pass catchers, one of our top rushers, and like 4 of our starting OL. Out of 136 teams, we return the 126th most offense - or 11th least if you wanna go the other way.
As a second reminder: high returning production doesn't mean you are more likely to be good, and low returning production doesn't mean you are more likely to be bad. But high/low returning production tends to mean you will be better/worse than you were last season.
However, and as a final reminder: programs with elite recruiting tend to be the ones that break that pattern most consistently, and it's obviously tied to having elite recruits ready to take over starting roles. Having said that, elite programs with high returning production obviously tend to fare very well. But Georgia and Alabama have consistently lived in the bottom 3rd of the returning production rankings (which directly ties to them putting 10+ players in the draft every year), only to reload pretty much every year. I think likely the most important factor in that has been their ability to reload at QB.
2024:
#25 Oregon
#28 Georgia
#36 Texas
#37 Penn State
#56 Ohio State
#99 Notre Dame
2023:
#1 Florida State
#5 Michigan
#19 Texas
#22 Washington
#125 Alabama
2022:
#9 TCU
#24 Ohio State
#67 Michigan
#96 Georgia
I think that, with that returning production number, this is where our recruiting/scouting really gets put to the test - because if Arch Manning is him, if Wingo, Moore and any of the young pups are who we think they are, if the Olinemen that are all juniors or 5 stars are ready, then that 29% returning production means nothing... but those guys have to hit.
