For those OBs among us who have Bowl Pick'Em entries due today or are thinking about tossing around some bets over the new year, here's a little late Christmas gift - once again, I put it together to help me in making choices for my own bowl pick'em contest I play in and will share with OB now that I've got my picks in.
CLICK HERE FOR THE SPREADSHEET
Here's how to read it.
The favorite (as of XMAS eve) is bolded.
The line by which the favorite is favored is bolded in the "line" column.
The "projected s/u pick" column is my projection for the percentage of the field who will choose the team in a large pick'em pool straight-up (no spread involved) based on the large-pool games at CBS and ESPN.
The "public ATS" column is the percentage of public bets on the team against the spread.
The "shift" column indicates if any shifts in the line have occurred since the line's open. If the number in the shift column is red, it means that the line has shifted WITH the public money. If the number in the column is blue, it means the line has shifted that much AGAINST the public money.
The "S/U sim" column references 10 (sometimes 20) computer simulations I ran for each contest at a neutral site using depth charts of players available in the game along with approximate projected weather conditions. Clearly, 10-20 simulations is not enough to give a great picture, but it may provide some clarity.
The "congrove comp line" is the line for the game that was generated by the Congrove computer in Vegas. For all games except those bolded in RED letters, the computer sees the same favorite, but will sometimes have differing lines. In games where numbers are RED inside the congrove column, it means the computer is predicting an outright, straight-up upset.
GL this bowl season OB fam! -ad
CLICK HERE FOR THE SPREADSHEET
Here's how to read it.
The favorite (as of XMAS eve) is bolded.
The line by which the favorite is favored is bolded in the "line" column.
The "projected s/u pick" column is my projection for the percentage of the field who will choose the team in a large pick'em pool straight-up (no spread involved) based on the large-pool games at CBS and ESPN.
The "public ATS" column is the percentage of public bets on the team against the spread.
The "shift" column indicates if any shifts in the line have occurred since the line's open. If the number in the shift column is red, it means that the line has shifted WITH the public money. If the number in the column is blue, it means the line has shifted that much AGAINST the public money.
The "S/U sim" column references 10 (sometimes 20) computer simulations I ran for each contest at a neutral site using depth charts of players available in the game along with approximate projected weather conditions. Clearly, 10-20 simulations is not enough to give a great picture, but it may provide some clarity.
The "congrove comp line" is the line for the game that was generated by the Congrove computer in Vegas. For all games except those bolded in RED letters, the computer sees the same favorite, but will sometimes have differing lines. In games where numbers are RED inside the congrove column, it means the computer is predicting an outright, straight-up upset.
GL this bowl season OB fam! -ad
