http://247sports.com/Bolt/How-costly-losing-Jared-Goff-many-others-will-be-for-Cal-46540327
Obviously Cal will miss Jared Goff this year.
But the Golden Bears lose a lot more than the Los Angeles Rams’ No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft who threw for 4,719 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2015 — both the third-most in the nation. They have only nine returning starters, four on offense and five on defense, the fewest in the Pac-12 and tied for fourth-fewest in the country.
Apart from Goff, Cal also loses its top six receivers from a year ago. All six had at least 40 catches last season, with none of the returnees having even caught 20 passes for the Golden Bears last season. Even with their top three rushers returning, each of whom ran for between 500 and 600 yards last year, Cal’s offense will likely take several steps back in 2016.
The silver lining is that six of the Golden Bears’ nine returning starters are in the trenches — three apiece on the offensive and defensive lines. Even the other two projected to fill starting spots on the offensive line started at least five games last year, Jeremiah Stuckey at Texas A&M and Aaron Cochran at Cal.
But the Golden Bears will look much different on defense as well. Going into April, it looked like they would bring back two of their top three tacklers from last season. But linebacker Hardy Nickerson, whose 112 steps were the third-most in the Pac-12 and the most among returning players in the conference, transferred to Illinois, where his father was hired by new head coach Lovie Smith to be the defensive coordinator. Safety Damariay Drew, who made 71 tackles last year, suffered a knee injury that has left his status for this season in doubt. Cal will be without at least five of its top six tacklers from last season and, depending on Drew’s status, possibly all six.
It’s for these reasons that, after going 8-5 with Goff taking the snaps last year, Cal is projected to win just 6.1 games this regular season and finish fourth in the Pac-12 North. The Golden Bears check in with a rating of 16.59 in the preseason model used to project the outcome of each FBS game this upcoming season. That’s good for the No. 62 spot — 29 down from last year, the 10th-biggest drop in the nation. Their rating is also 7.51 points down since the end of last season, the 15th-biggest such decrease in the country.
After its neutral-site season opener against Hawaii in Sydney, Australia, Cal is not projected to win a game by more than 7.3 points. While the Golden Bears are projected to be favored in five of their first seven games, they are projected to be underdogs in four of their last five games. It will be imperative for them to get off to a good start this season.
It will also be equally important to play well in close games, as nine of Cal’s 12 regular season contests are projected to be decided by one score (eight points or fewer). But without Goff and 12 other starters from last year’s eight-win squad, they have just an 18.7% chance to win eight games in this regular season. Look for Cal to be about a .500 team this year.
Obviously Cal will miss Jared Goff this year.
But the Golden Bears lose a lot more than the Los Angeles Rams’ No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft who threw for 4,719 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2015 — both the third-most in the nation. They have only nine returning starters, four on offense and five on defense, the fewest in the Pac-12 and tied for fourth-fewest in the country.
Apart from Goff, Cal also loses its top six receivers from a year ago. All six had at least 40 catches last season, with none of the returnees having even caught 20 passes for the Golden Bears last season. Even with their top three rushers returning, each of whom ran for between 500 and 600 yards last year, Cal’s offense will likely take several steps back in 2016.
The silver lining is that six of the Golden Bears’ nine returning starters are in the trenches — three apiece on the offensive and defensive lines. Even the other two projected to fill starting spots on the offensive line started at least five games last year, Jeremiah Stuckey at Texas A&M and Aaron Cochran at Cal.
But the Golden Bears will look much different on defense as well. Going into April, it looked like they would bring back two of their top three tacklers from last season. But linebacker Hardy Nickerson, whose 112 steps were the third-most in the Pac-12 and the most among returning players in the conference, transferred to Illinois, where his father was hired by new head coach Lovie Smith to be the defensive coordinator. Safety Damariay Drew, who made 71 tackles last year, suffered a knee injury that has left his status for this season in doubt. Cal will be without at least five of its top six tacklers from last season and, depending on Drew’s status, possibly all six.
It’s for these reasons that, after going 8-5 with Goff taking the snaps last year, Cal is projected to win just 6.1 games this regular season and finish fourth in the Pac-12 North. The Golden Bears check in with a rating of 16.59 in the preseason model used to project the outcome of each FBS game this upcoming season. That’s good for the No. 62 spot — 29 down from last year, the 10th-biggest drop in the nation. Their rating is also 7.51 points down since the end of last season, the 15th-biggest such decrease in the country.
After its neutral-site season opener against Hawaii in Sydney, Australia, Cal is not projected to win a game by more than 7.3 points. While the Golden Bears are projected to be favored in five of their first seven games, they are projected to be underdogs in four of their last five games. It will be imperative for them to get off to a good start this season.
It will also be equally important to play well in close games, as nine of Cal’s 12 regular season contests are projected to be decided by one score (eight points or fewer). But without Goff and 12 other starters from last year’s eight-win squad, they have just an 18.7% chance to win eight games in this regular season. Look for Cal to be about a .500 team this year.
