COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS:
It feels like so much changed following last week’s loss to Georgia. My number one seed, Texas, slid down the rankings leaving Ohio State to take over the top spot.
I still think Ohio State runs the table and wins the rematch against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game and they will be the top-seeded conference champ despite having the only loss.
In truth, I did still consider keeping Texas as a top-four seed and SEC Champ. I still think they have a legitimate road to the title and a legitimate chance to beat Georgia if the two are matched up again. But there are so many SEC teams still in the running that I just can’t project that far out. It’s not that hard to see Texas, with one conference loss, not even making the SEC title game. Say LSU wins the rest of their regular season games, they will then be undefeated in conference play and would go to Atlanta over Texas.
I now have Georgia projected to be the SEC title winners and the three seed in the CFP, but that is far from guaranteed. The Bulldogs still have to face Florida next week at the world’s biggest cocktail party (a rivalry game). They go on the road to Ole Miss the week after that and then host Tennessee the week after that. If Uga survives the first three weeks of November, then we’ll know for sure that they are the team to beat.
I have the SEC champ as the three seed because I think Miami still runs the table and wins the ACC with an undefeated season. That won’t be good enough to vault them over Ohio State for the #1 seed, but it very well may be good enough to vault an SEC Champion for the #2 seed. The only thing that really gives me pause is that if Georgia wins out and claims the title, then they will have more high quality wins and they too could vault Miami for the two seed. But at the end of the day, whether you’re a two seed or a three seed, it doesn’t really matter that much. It will be a similar path through the playoffs either way.
I’m keeping BYU as the Big 12 champ for now because they are undefeated. But if anyone can correctly guess what is going to happen in the Big 12 then what are you doing on a message board like this? You should be playing the lottery and betting big on those games because you’re better than Carnac the Magnificent.
Oregon (5-seed) vs. Boise State (12-seed)
This is a rematch of what was a really exciting early-season game that hardly anyone saw because it was played so late at night for East Coast and Central time zone viewers.
Oregon will not be too severely punished for losing in the Big Ten championship game. They’ll slot into the five seed as the highest seeded non-conference champion.
Boise State lost to Oregon, in Eugene, on a last second field goal. Ashton Jeanty, my bet to win the Heisman, ran through the Ducks defense for 192 yards on 25 carries. If Boise State beats UNLV this week in Las Vegas, I don’t see anything slowing down Jeanty or the Broncos.
Penn State (6-seed) vs. Indiana (11-seed)
Penn State, who I don’t see beating Ohio State, won’t play in the Big Ten title game … but that’s ok because they’ll then finish the season with only one loss. As a reward, they get a home playoff game as the six seed.
I am reluctant to slot Indiana in here because their quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, had surgery on his thumb this week and will miss some time. Hopefully he’ll be back before they take on Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks towards the end of the season. If they are able to beat Michigan, they’ll be in the playoffs.
This would be a really interesting Big Ten matchup that will not be a repeat because they don’t play each other in the regular season.
Texas (7-seed) vs LSU (10-seed)
I have already stated that I could easily see Texas winning out and beating Georgia in a conference championship game rematch. But, it is just too soon after last weekend’s game to chalk it up as an automatic Texas win. We’ll give Georgia the nod for now. That gives the Longhorns two losses which still makes the playoffs and gives them a home game in the playoffs against the 10-seed LSU Tigers.
I have been really down on LSU this year, pointing to their 104th rated pass defense as justification. But they have looked good lately and I’m changing my mind on who will win this week’s LSU vs. Texas A&M game.
If the Tigers win, they get the CFP spot. If the Aggies win, they get the CFP spot.
It’s not exactly a cake walk for LSU after that. They still have Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Bama is still a good team, even if they’re not a great team. Florida has shown some life this season that I didn’t think they had in them. Vanderbilt has been the surprise of the season. If they do make it through that, they get an easy one against OU to wrap up the regular season. The Sooners will have been long checked out by that point. Even if they stumble once along the way, they’ll still only have one conference loss and they will be in.
Notre Dame (8-seed) vs Clemson (9-seed)
The Irish’s schedule got a little tougher with the emergence of Navy and Army as top-25 teams this year. And, if Navy beats Notre Dame this week, they will be back in my CFP projections next week. But for now, I’m going to go with the Irish to win their games against the service academies and everyone else on their schedule. They slide down to this spot because their Northern Illinois loss at home is still a really big blemish.
Clemson will, in all likelihood, win out in the regular season before losing to Miami in the ACC Championship game. Although, the matchup against Pitt on November 16th, could be much tougher than people give it credit for being. Assuming they do lose in the ACC title game, they will fall down a bit to the 9-seed and be forced to travel to South Bend, Indiana to take on the Fighting Irish.
It feels like so much changed following last week’s loss to Georgia. My number one seed, Texas, slid down the rankings leaving Ohio State to take over the top spot.
I still think Ohio State runs the table and wins the rematch against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game and they will be the top-seeded conference champ despite having the only loss.
In truth, I did still consider keeping Texas as a top-four seed and SEC Champ. I still think they have a legitimate road to the title and a legitimate chance to beat Georgia if the two are matched up again. But there are so many SEC teams still in the running that I just can’t project that far out. It’s not that hard to see Texas, with one conference loss, not even making the SEC title game. Say LSU wins the rest of their regular season games, they will then be undefeated in conference play and would go to Atlanta over Texas.
I now have Georgia projected to be the SEC title winners and the three seed in the CFP, but that is far from guaranteed. The Bulldogs still have to face Florida next week at the world’s biggest cocktail party (a rivalry game). They go on the road to Ole Miss the week after that and then host Tennessee the week after that. If Uga survives the first three weeks of November, then we’ll know for sure that they are the team to beat.
I have the SEC champ as the three seed because I think Miami still runs the table and wins the ACC with an undefeated season. That won’t be good enough to vault them over Ohio State for the #1 seed, but it very well may be good enough to vault an SEC Champion for the #2 seed. The only thing that really gives me pause is that if Georgia wins out and claims the title, then they will have more high quality wins and they too could vault Miami for the two seed. But at the end of the day, whether you’re a two seed or a three seed, it doesn’t really matter that much. It will be a similar path through the playoffs either way.
I’m keeping BYU as the Big 12 champ for now because they are undefeated. But if anyone can correctly guess what is going to happen in the Big 12 then what are you doing on a message board like this? You should be playing the lottery and betting big on those games because you’re better than Carnac the Magnificent.
Oregon (5-seed) vs. Boise State (12-seed)
This is a rematch of what was a really exciting early-season game that hardly anyone saw because it was played so late at night for East Coast and Central time zone viewers.
Oregon will not be too severely punished for losing in the Big Ten championship game. They’ll slot into the five seed as the highest seeded non-conference champion.
Boise State lost to Oregon, in Eugene, on a last second field goal. Ashton Jeanty, my bet to win the Heisman, ran through the Ducks defense for 192 yards on 25 carries. If Boise State beats UNLV this week in Las Vegas, I don’t see anything slowing down Jeanty or the Broncos.
Penn State (6-seed) vs. Indiana (11-seed)
Penn State, who I don’t see beating Ohio State, won’t play in the Big Ten title game … but that’s ok because they’ll then finish the season with only one loss. As a reward, they get a home playoff game as the six seed.
I am reluctant to slot Indiana in here because their quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, had surgery on his thumb this week and will miss some time. Hopefully he’ll be back before they take on Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks towards the end of the season. If they are able to beat Michigan, they’ll be in the playoffs.
This would be a really interesting Big Ten matchup that will not be a repeat because they don’t play each other in the regular season.
Texas (7-seed) vs LSU (10-seed)
I have already stated that I could easily see Texas winning out and beating Georgia in a conference championship game rematch. But, it is just too soon after last weekend’s game to chalk it up as an automatic Texas win. We’ll give Georgia the nod for now. That gives the Longhorns two losses which still makes the playoffs and gives them a home game in the playoffs against the 10-seed LSU Tigers.
I have been really down on LSU this year, pointing to their 104th rated pass defense as justification. But they have looked good lately and I’m changing my mind on who will win this week’s LSU vs. Texas A&M game.
If the Tigers win, they get the CFP spot. If the Aggies win, they get the CFP spot.
It’s not exactly a cake walk for LSU after that. They still have Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Bama is still a good team, even if they’re not a great team. Florida has shown some life this season that I didn’t think they had in them. Vanderbilt has been the surprise of the season. If they do make it through that, they get an easy one against OU to wrap up the regular season. The Sooners will have been long checked out by that point. Even if they stumble once along the way, they’ll still only have one conference loss and they will be in.
Notre Dame (8-seed) vs Clemson (9-seed)
The Irish’s schedule got a little tougher with the emergence of Navy and Army as top-25 teams this year. And, if Navy beats Notre Dame this week, they will be back in my CFP projections next week. But for now, I’m going to go with the Irish to win their games against the service academies and everyone else on their schedule. They slide down to this spot because their Northern Illinois loss at home is still a really big blemish.
Clemson will, in all likelihood, win out in the regular season before losing to Miami in the ACC Championship game. Although, the matchup against Pitt on November 16th, could be much tougher than people give it credit for being. Assuming they do lose in the ACC title game, they will fall down a bit to the 9-seed and be forced to travel to South Bend, Indiana to take on the Fighting Irish.
