While I watch the game… hell yeah…interesting to compare poll data from 2016 and now to try to see if they have corrected what led to overestimates of Clinton and Biden.
I’ll use Wisconsin at the test case since it was one of the worst cases of being off in favor of the Dems. I’ll use the same poll, Emerson.
In 2016, the last Emerson poll there had Clinton +5. Comparing education levels between their poll and the exit poll (which was very accurate and showed Trump winning by less than a point)…
HS or less poll 15.3%, actual 20%
Some college poll 35.3%, actual 35%
Bachelors poll 32.6% actual 30%
Post grad poll 16.5% actual 15%
So they overestimated degreed voters, 49% when actual was 45%, and underestimated some college or less, 51% to actual 55%
In 2020, the actual turnout was 65% some college or less and 35% degreed.
The latest Emerson poll of Wisconsin shows Trump up 1. This time they show 65% some college or less and 35% bachelors or higher.
Moral: the latest Emerson poll shows exactly the actual turnout by education from 2020. That error has been corrected, at least in the Emerson polls.
I’ll look at some others, but I’m guessing there won’t be the same overestimates of Trump voters this year.
For the record this Emerson poll does show Trump up by a point there.
I’ll use Wisconsin at the test case since it was one of the worst cases of being off in favor of the Dems. I’ll use the same poll, Emerson.
In 2016, the last Emerson poll there had Clinton +5. Comparing education levels between their poll and the exit poll (which was very accurate and showed Trump winning by less than a point)…
HS or less poll 15.3%, actual 20%
Some college poll 35.3%, actual 35%
Bachelors poll 32.6% actual 30%
Post grad poll 16.5% actual 15%
So they overestimated degreed voters, 49% when actual was 45%, and underestimated some college or less, 51% to actual 55%
In 2020, the actual turnout was 65% some college or less and 35% degreed.
The latest Emerson poll of Wisconsin shows Trump up 1. This time they show 65% some college or less and 35% bachelors or higher.
Moral: the latest Emerson poll shows exactly the actual turnout by education from 2020. That error has been corrected, at least in the Emerson polls.
I’ll look at some others, but I’m guessing there won’t be the same overestimates of Trump voters this year.
For the record this Emerson poll does show Trump up by a point there.
