Daily Short #111, November 30th, 2017: Final OL Thoughts and Grades
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OFFENSIVE LINE THOUGHTS AND GRADES
LT Connor Williams - 85 snaps
3 pressures allowed
2 holding penalties
4 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 78.06
Season Average: 81.73 (4 games)
315 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 35 snaps (down from one per 57.5 snaps)
LT Denzel Okafor - 0 snaps
DEEP DIG GRADE: N/A
Season Average: 75.80 (6 games)
389 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 20.5 snaps
LG Patrick Vahe - 0 snaps
DEEP DIG GRADE: N/A
Season Average: 76.23 (10 games)
751 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 31.3 snaps
LG Terrell Cuney - 85 snaps
1 TFL, 1 stuff, 1 pressure allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: 75.8
Season Average: 74.49 (8 games)
589 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 17.84 snaps (up from one per 16.8 snaps)
LG Alex Anderson - 0 snaps
2 snaps on the season
C Zach Shackelford - 85 snaps
2 stuffs, 1 TFL allowed
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.18
Season Average: 76.51 (8 games)
621 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 28.23 snaps (up from one per 28.2 snaps)
RG Jake McMillon - 85 snaps
1 pressure allowed
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.76
Season Average: 76.00 (11 games)
781 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 30.3 snaps (down from one per 28.12snaps)
RT Tristan Nickelson - 0 snaps
DEEP DIG GRADE: N/A
Season Average: 74.4 (7 games)
450 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 12.86 snaps
RT Derek Kerstetter - 85 snaps
2 stuffs, 2 pressures allowed
1 false-start penalty
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.29
Season Average: 76.61 (9 games)
684 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 20.73 snaps (down from one per 21.93 snaps)
CONNOR WILLIAMS, A TEXAS GREAT, GOES OUT WITH A THUD
In the near future, I'll have a column or series of columns detailing my thoughts and projections for where the offensive line goes in a post-Connor Williams -- and possibly Jake McMillon -- world as I know many of you have asked/demanded time and time again this analysis from me. Hell, some of you have sent me multiple hand-wringing emails about this. For today, though, we give a final assessment on the player that has been the OL's biggest bright-spot and storyline for the last three years. Here goes nothing ...
Williams has been nothing short of amazing during his time at Texas, basically from Day 1, he's been a joy to grade and go through this painstaking process with. After three years, I honestly feel grateful to the guy for making at least one aspect of the OL-grading portion of my job a little bit exciting and fun. As an analyst on this beat, I share the same sentiment as fans in hoping for all the best for him in the NFL.
He went out with a thud against Tech. After not allowing a pressure all season, he allowed three versus the Red Raiders and graded out more like a good college player overall than a surefire future NFL first-rounder. Maybe he was still a little hurt, maybe he had already checked out. Probably a small bit of both as is usually the case when faced with situations in real-life that are posed as impossibly binary.
Either way, it doesn't matter. It's over now for Williams at Texas and I don't think that his lackluster performance in his final game will be remembered near as much as his decision and announcement that he'd be skipping the bowl game. One that came bright and early on the next business day following the embarrassing home loss. Williams put in his last day at the office and skedaddled at the first opportunity. On his last play as a Texas Longhorn, Connor Williams committed a holding penalty -- which was ultimately declined by the victorious Red Raiders -- by rag-dolling a Tech edge-defender out of frustration.
Maybe it was a little symbolic.
Because I guess it's time for me to finally go out on a limb regarding my final draft evaluation for Williams. After all, that's what the Deep Dig system was designed to do. To give draft grades for NFL OL prospects, and to do so in an accurate enough fashion to where my employer at the time could count on them as part of the analysis other content-creators in the network could use in their own stories and features. It's not the best system for evaluating run-of-the-mill college players, because, as noted by the haters, the grades always seem lumped around the 75-range and it's hard to tell much of a difference between a 74.9 and and 76.18, etc. Well, that's because Texas has had average players on the OL for the last five years.
Until Connor.
He was the one who started to break out of this mold and start recording scores that fell more in line with those given out to the NFL draft prospects of the classes I did my initial work on within this system. When I graded out guys like Jake Matthews and Larry Warford, they would sometimes get grades up into the 90s, but that was back when I would separate out the run and the pass portion of the grades separately.
Taking those two examples, Matthews was a technician as a pass blocker while Warford was a road-grading beast and a hog in the run-aspect -- neither grading out near as well on the other side of the coin. When I look at Williams' best games at Texas, he graded out in those around the 85-mark, which would fall in line, or maybe just a tad under with how those two, or other players of their ilk, likely would have fared had I combined the two portions of their grades in the same way I do for the Deep Dig's database.
Williams is excellent in pass-protection and excellent in the run-game. The strength gained through his sophomore year (his one issue as a freshman was sheer lack of much strength) gave bloom to what was looking to become an absolutely dominating force by the end of his junior season. It was apparent from his sophomore tape alone that he could move well enough to play in the NFL with development and the brute-force was kind of the last ingredient necessary.
His junior season started out about like it ended -- with a similarly disappointing thud. The Maryland game was a stumbling point for all involved including Williams. He rebounded with the best game of his career at Texas versus a bad opponent in SJSU before getting knocked out for the majority of the season with a knee injury at USC. In his return versus WVU, he graded out with another of the best games of his career before following that game up with disappointment. He went two-for-four in the year that was supposed to be the ticker-tape parade en route to a big NFL paycheck.
So, here's where we are with Williams and the NFL draft: He has a long process ahead of him. He can either make evaluators forget about the slip-ups of the 2017 season and the uncertainty caused by his really only having two "true" years of college tape -- one as an underpowered freshman -- or he can cause them worry. He's a player who'll really depend on testing to prove some of his mettle that he was unable to put on record via junior tape. If he runs a 4.8 forty in Indy and blows up the on-field stuff, etc. the hype train will get going full-steam ahead. If he's unprepared and duds at the combine, the narrative around him is very likely to morph into one of Williams being somewhat of an upside pick at a key NFL position in a weak draft for tackles.
And that is something important to keep in mind: this is not a good tackle class in 2017. At least not as far as prospects. It's funny to say a class is "not good" for any position as we are notably bad at predicting future NFL success as an industry, and these sorts of proclamations about positional strength should only comes years after -- in retrospect. With that said, it at least APPEARS to be a tackle draft filled with long, stiff players, waist-benders and in some of the most intriguing cases, pure, raw athletes. In this sense, it can be said, based on my early evaluations of the others, that Williams moves better than any I've seen. That says a lot, especially in such a weak draft.
My final evaluation on Williams, in a vacuum (and based solely on film, albeit exhaustive, nuanced and longitudinal study of said film) is a late-first-to-second-round pick. From my own personal standpoint, he just barely failed to reach that rarified air of the true, surefire, Top 10 lock that I always had him projected for. Could he have reached this status with a full season of film as a junior? Who knows. It's pointless to speculate about.
From a pure evaluation standpoint, I put him in a class of player with Kyle Long, formerly of Oregon who is now an All-Pro for the Chicago Bears. Terrific player who moves extremely well in a spread system with some nastiness and technician to his game, but who also has a few small red flags. In Long, it was the limited amount of tape like Williams, off-the-field hiccups (which are certainly not part of the Williams eval) and short arms (Williams doesn't have short arms, but may not have ideal left tackle height for NFL purposes - I won't believe he's the 6'6" he's listed at until I see that number come from a real, NFL-sanctioned weigh-in).
He's the best Texas offensive lineman of the last decade-plus and I hope he is a Top 10 pick despite not giving him a final grade quite as lofty as that one ... one that I'd always projected since midway through his sophomore season. He's a smart guy for leaving in a year like this where that slotting actually seems like it could end up being attainable. It will be fascinating to see unfold.
Godspeed, to Connor Williams, a Texas Great. In the voice of another Texas Great that was well before his time, "Goodbye ... and Good Luck."
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
OFFENSIVE LINE THOUGHTS AND GRADES
LT Connor Williams - 85 snaps
3 pressures allowed
2 holding penalties
4 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 78.06
Season Average: 81.73 (4 games)
315 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 35 snaps (down from one per 57.5 snaps)
LT Denzel Okafor - 0 snaps
DEEP DIG GRADE: N/A
Season Average: 75.80 (6 games)
389 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 20.5 snaps
LG Patrick Vahe - 0 snaps
DEEP DIG GRADE: N/A
Season Average: 76.23 (10 games)
751 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 31.3 snaps
LG Terrell Cuney - 85 snaps
1 TFL, 1 stuff, 1 pressure allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: 75.8
Season Average: 74.49 (8 games)
589 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 17.84 snaps (up from one per 16.8 snaps)
LG Alex Anderson - 0 snaps
2 snaps on the season
C Zach Shackelford - 85 snaps
2 stuffs, 1 TFL allowed
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.18
Season Average: 76.51 (8 games)
621 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 28.23 snaps (up from one per 28.2 snaps)
RG Jake McMillon - 85 snaps
1 pressure allowed
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.76
Season Average: 76.00 (11 games)
781 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 30.3 snaps (down from one per 28.12snaps)
RT Tristan Nickelson - 0 snaps
DEEP DIG GRADE: N/A
Season Average: 74.4 (7 games)
450 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 12.86 snaps
RT Derek Kerstetter - 85 snaps
2 stuffs, 2 pressures allowed
1 false-start penalty
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.29
Season Average: 76.61 (9 games)
684 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 20.73 snaps (down from one per 21.93 snaps)
CONNOR WILLIAMS, A TEXAS GREAT, GOES OUT WITH A THUD
In the near future, I'll have a column or series of columns detailing my thoughts and projections for where the offensive line goes in a post-Connor Williams -- and possibly Jake McMillon -- world as I know many of you have asked/demanded time and time again this analysis from me. Hell, some of you have sent me multiple hand-wringing emails about this. For today, though, we give a final assessment on the player that has been the OL's biggest bright-spot and storyline for the last three years. Here goes nothing ...
Williams has been nothing short of amazing during his time at Texas, basically from Day 1, he's been a joy to grade and go through this painstaking process with. After three years, I honestly feel grateful to the guy for making at least one aspect of the OL-grading portion of my job a little bit exciting and fun. As an analyst on this beat, I share the same sentiment as fans in hoping for all the best for him in the NFL.
He went out with a thud against Tech. After not allowing a pressure all season, he allowed three versus the Red Raiders and graded out more like a good college player overall than a surefire future NFL first-rounder. Maybe he was still a little hurt, maybe he had already checked out. Probably a small bit of both as is usually the case when faced with situations in real-life that are posed as impossibly binary.
Either way, it doesn't matter. It's over now for Williams at Texas and I don't think that his lackluster performance in his final game will be remembered near as much as his decision and announcement that he'd be skipping the bowl game. One that came bright and early on the next business day following the embarrassing home loss. Williams put in his last day at the office and skedaddled at the first opportunity. On his last play as a Texas Longhorn, Connor Williams committed a holding penalty -- which was ultimately declined by the victorious Red Raiders -- by rag-dolling a Tech edge-defender out of frustration.
Maybe it was a little symbolic.
Because I guess it's time for me to finally go out on a limb regarding my final draft evaluation for Williams. After all, that's what the Deep Dig system was designed to do. To give draft grades for NFL OL prospects, and to do so in an accurate enough fashion to where my employer at the time could count on them as part of the analysis other content-creators in the network could use in their own stories and features. It's not the best system for evaluating run-of-the-mill college players, because, as noted by the haters, the grades always seem lumped around the 75-range and it's hard to tell much of a difference between a 74.9 and and 76.18, etc. Well, that's because Texas has had average players on the OL for the last five years.
Until Connor.
He was the one who started to break out of this mold and start recording scores that fell more in line with those given out to the NFL draft prospects of the classes I did my initial work on within this system. When I graded out guys like Jake Matthews and Larry Warford, they would sometimes get grades up into the 90s, but that was back when I would separate out the run and the pass portion of the grades separately.
Taking those two examples, Matthews was a technician as a pass blocker while Warford was a road-grading beast and a hog in the run-aspect -- neither grading out near as well on the other side of the coin. When I look at Williams' best games at Texas, he graded out in those around the 85-mark, which would fall in line, or maybe just a tad under with how those two, or other players of their ilk, likely would have fared had I combined the two portions of their grades in the same way I do for the Deep Dig's database.
Williams is excellent in pass-protection and excellent in the run-game. The strength gained through his sophomore year (his one issue as a freshman was sheer lack of much strength) gave bloom to what was looking to become an absolutely dominating force by the end of his junior season. It was apparent from his sophomore tape alone that he could move well enough to play in the NFL with development and the brute-force was kind of the last ingredient necessary.
His junior season started out about like it ended -- with a similarly disappointing thud. The Maryland game was a stumbling point for all involved including Williams. He rebounded with the best game of his career at Texas versus a bad opponent in SJSU before getting knocked out for the majority of the season with a knee injury at USC. In his return versus WVU, he graded out with another of the best games of his career before following that game up with disappointment. He went two-for-four in the year that was supposed to be the ticker-tape parade en route to a big NFL paycheck.
So, here's where we are with Williams and the NFL draft: He has a long process ahead of him. He can either make evaluators forget about the slip-ups of the 2017 season and the uncertainty caused by his really only having two "true" years of college tape -- one as an underpowered freshman -- or he can cause them worry. He's a player who'll really depend on testing to prove some of his mettle that he was unable to put on record via junior tape. If he runs a 4.8 forty in Indy and blows up the on-field stuff, etc. the hype train will get going full-steam ahead. If he's unprepared and duds at the combine, the narrative around him is very likely to morph into one of Williams being somewhat of an upside pick at a key NFL position in a weak draft for tackles.
And that is something important to keep in mind: this is not a good tackle class in 2017. At least not as far as prospects. It's funny to say a class is "not good" for any position as we are notably bad at predicting future NFL success as an industry, and these sorts of proclamations about positional strength should only comes years after -- in retrospect. With that said, it at least APPEARS to be a tackle draft filled with long, stiff players, waist-benders and in some of the most intriguing cases, pure, raw athletes. In this sense, it can be said, based on my early evaluations of the others, that Williams moves better than any I've seen. That says a lot, especially in such a weak draft.
My final evaluation on Williams, in a vacuum (and based solely on film, albeit exhaustive, nuanced and longitudinal study of said film) is a late-first-to-second-round pick. From my own personal standpoint, he just barely failed to reach that rarified air of the true, surefire, Top 10 lock that I always had him projected for. Could he have reached this status with a full season of film as a junior? Who knows. It's pointless to speculate about.
From a pure evaluation standpoint, I put him in a class of player with Kyle Long, formerly of Oregon who is now an All-Pro for the Chicago Bears. Terrific player who moves extremely well in a spread system with some nastiness and technician to his game, but who also has a few small red flags. In Long, it was the limited amount of tape like Williams, off-the-field hiccups (which are certainly not part of the Williams eval) and short arms (Williams doesn't have short arms, but may not have ideal left tackle height for NFL purposes - I won't believe he's the 6'6" he's listed at until I see that number come from a real, NFL-sanctioned weigh-in).
He's the best Texas offensive lineman of the last decade-plus and I hope he is a Top 10 pick despite not giving him a final grade quite as lofty as that one ... one that I'd always projected since midway through his sophomore season. He's a smart guy for leaving in a year like this where that slotting actually seems like it could end up being attainable. It will be fascinating to see unfold.
Godspeed, to Connor Williams, a Texas Great. In the voice of another Texas Great that was well before his time, "Goodbye ... and Good Luck."
