Daily Short #103, November 16th, 2017: OL Thoughts and Grades
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LT Tristan Nickelson - 65 snaps
2 QB hits, 3 pressures, 1 run-stuff allowed
1 false-start penalty, 1 holding penalty
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 72.54
Season Average: 74.39 (7 games)
450 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 12.86 snaps (down from one per 14.25 snaps)
LG Patrick Vahe - 73 snaps
2 QB hits, 2 TFL allowed
2 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 74.32
Season Average: 76.23 (10 games)
740 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 30.83 snaps (down from one per 33.35 snaps)
C Terrell Cuney - 54 snaps
1 run-stuff allowed
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 75.19
Season Average: 73.58 (6 games)
437 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 14.57 snaps (up from one per 13.24 snaps)
C Zach Shackelford - 19 snaps
1 pressure allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: (N/A <20 snaps)
Season Average: 76.39 (6 games)
481 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 28.29 snaps (down from one per 30.38 snaps)
RG Jake McMillon - 70 snaps
No disruption allowed
3 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.57
Season Average: 75.96 (9 games)
636 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 30.29 snaps (up from one per 29.96 snaps)
RT Derek Kerstetter -
2 pressures allowed
6 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.29
Season Average: 76.51 (7 games)
437 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 20.46 snaps (up from one per 19.26 snaps)
Reserves
LT Denzel Okafor - 9 snaps
RG Alex Anderson - 3 snaps
RT JP Urquidez - 3 snaps
C Garrett Graf - 1 snap
LG Austin Allsup - 1 snap
Overall Thoughts
Texas fans should hope against hope that they get Connor Williams back at 100% for the final two games of the 2017 season as Tristan Nickelson continues to be awful and the staff apparently thinks that even despite this, he is a better option than Denzel Okafor. The disruption numbers certainly don't tell a similar tale. Despite putting more than a few bonehead plays on tape over the course of a rocky sophomore season, he's been better than Nickelson. Nickelson, on 450 snaps, has allowed disruption and/or caused a penalty a by-far-team-worst once per every 12.86 snaps. Over 450 snaps, he leads the team in pressures allowed (14), QB hits allowed (7) and is tied with freshman Derek Kerstetter (who has played almost 100 more snaps) for the team-lead in penalties. Okafor on the other hand -- while certainly not a wonderful plug-and-play alternative -- has only allowed disruption and/or committed a penalty once per every 20.47 snaps, which is technically a shade better than Derek Kerstetter, who, despite not causing much disruption here down the stretch, struggled mightily early on with holding penalties as he got his feet underneath him as a baby-faced D1 tackle.
Patrick Vahe played a game versus Kansas that was below his season-average and actually just a tick below acceptable baseline. He's losing his feet too much and giving up on his blocks too early in plays recently. Versus KU, he played much better when Zach Shackelford was in the game versus when Terrell Cuney was in the game because Cuney has very little bend and plays with no awareness in two-man blocking assignments with his guards. I'm so puzzled at the idea of starting this player over a healthy Zach Shackelford that I don't even know what to write. Cuney must be one hell of a practice player because Lord knows how much this staff loves that.
If Shackelford would have played one more snap in this game (enough to qualify for a grade) and received just a baseline level "0" on it, his score would have been a 78.5. If this staff starts Cuney over a healthy Shackelford at West Virginia and does not come out of the game victorious, this will be one thing fans will be able to easily point to and say that the staff did not do all it could from a game-planning and personnel perspective to put the Longhorns in position to win. That much is plain and simple. Everyone knows that OL is currently a weak point on the team, but it's important to parse out who's worse than who and in this case, it's very, very obvious.
The right side of the line was the strength of the unit versus Kansas. Jake McMillon, amidst a down season from last year where he broke out lined up next to Connor Williams at LG (where I still think he should be playing this year), played at a level above his season-long baseline and allowed no direct disruption over the course of the game. Like Vahe, he plays better when Shackelford on the field as opposed to Cuney. Again, how this staff starts Cuney over a healthy Shackelford is beyond confounding and makes me wonder if there is something going on behind the scenes. There is zero reason based on what we've seen on film in the actual games.
I know that someone will chime in about my knockdowns-count on Derek Kerstetter being at 6 as opposed to the 7 quoted by Tom Herman in his press conference, and invariably, someone will ask why I have him graded at a 77-ish grade while Herman said his score was an 87%. So I'll address those two items here in the column to save everyone a little time and heart ache:
1) On the knockdowns: I honestly think I should have only credited him with 5. I think Warehime gives credit for "knockdowns" whenever a player is engaged with a defender, then the defender, in an attempt to make a tackle while still in the relative grasp of the lineman, attempts to make a tackle and goes to the ground with the OL toppling on top of him. I don't generally count that type of effort as a knockdown because the OL didn't really knock down the DL as much as the DL voluntarily went to the ground in an effort to contribute on a tackle.
2) I think most people who read this column by now know that my system for grading is an NFL draft projection system that isn't anything like what a coach does when watching film and giving grades. While Joe Wickline was in town, guys like Taylor Doyle would frequently score 90% and similar grades because those grades are given as a percentage of plays where the player either a) did his job; or b) didn't score negatively. If I were to grade players like that, for the record, here's how it would look:
Derek Kerstetter: 70 snaps, 5 negatively graded plays = 7.1% negative plays =
a score of 92.9% versus Kansas.
Look at that - I'm actually an easier grader than Warehime when we put things in context.
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
LT Tristan Nickelson - 65 snaps
2 QB hits, 3 pressures, 1 run-stuff allowed
1 false-start penalty, 1 holding penalty
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 72.54
Season Average: 74.39 (7 games)
450 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 12.86 snaps (down from one per 14.25 snaps)
LG Patrick Vahe - 73 snaps
2 QB hits, 2 TFL allowed
2 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 74.32
Season Average: 76.23 (10 games)
740 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 30.83 snaps (down from one per 33.35 snaps)
C Terrell Cuney - 54 snaps
1 run-stuff allowed
1 knockdown
DEEP DIG GRADE: 75.19
Season Average: 73.58 (6 games)
437 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 14.57 snaps (up from one per 13.24 snaps)
C Zach Shackelford - 19 snaps
1 pressure allowed
DEEP DIG GRADE: (N/A <20 snaps)
Season Average: 76.39 (6 games)
481 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 28.29 snaps (down from one per 30.38 snaps)
RG Jake McMillon - 70 snaps
No disruption allowed
3 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 76.57
Season Average: 75.96 (9 games)
636 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 30.29 snaps (up from one per 29.96 snaps)
RT Derek Kerstetter -
2 pressures allowed
6 knockdowns
DEEP DIG GRADE: 77.29
Season Average: 76.51 (7 games)
437 snaps on the season; disruption allowed and/or penalty caused once per every 20.46 snaps (up from one per 19.26 snaps)
Reserves
LT Denzel Okafor - 9 snaps
RG Alex Anderson - 3 snaps
RT JP Urquidez - 3 snaps
C Garrett Graf - 1 snap
LG Austin Allsup - 1 snap
Overall Thoughts
Texas fans should hope against hope that they get Connor Williams back at 100% for the final two games of the 2017 season as Tristan Nickelson continues to be awful and the staff apparently thinks that even despite this, he is a better option than Denzel Okafor. The disruption numbers certainly don't tell a similar tale. Despite putting more than a few bonehead plays on tape over the course of a rocky sophomore season, he's been better than Nickelson. Nickelson, on 450 snaps, has allowed disruption and/or caused a penalty a by-far-team-worst once per every 12.86 snaps. Over 450 snaps, he leads the team in pressures allowed (14), QB hits allowed (7) and is tied with freshman Derek Kerstetter (who has played almost 100 more snaps) for the team-lead in penalties. Okafor on the other hand -- while certainly not a wonderful plug-and-play alternative -- has only allowed disruption and/or committed a penalty once per every 20.47 snaps, which is technically a shade better than Derek Kerstetter, who, despite not causing much disruption here down the stretch, struggled mightily early on with holding penalties as he got his feet underneath him as a baby-faced D1 tackle.
Patrick Vahe played a game versus Kansas that was below his season-average and actually just a tick below acceptable baseline. He's losing his feet too much and giving up on his blocks too early in plays recently. Versus KU, he played much better when Zach Shackelford was in the game versus when Terrell Cuney was in the game because Cuney has very little bend and plays with no awareness in two-man blocking assignments with his guards. I'm so puzzled at the idea of starting this player over a healthy Zach Shackelford that I don't even know what to write. Cuney must be one hell of a practice player because Lord knows how much this staff loves that.
If Shackelford would have played one more snap in this game (enough to qualify for a grade) and received just a baseline level "0" on it, his score would have been a 78.5. If this staff starts Cuney over a healthy Shackelford at West Virginia and does not come out of the game victorious, this will be one thing fans will be able to easily point to and say that the staff did not do all it could from a game-planning and personnel perspective to put the Longhorns in position to win. That much is plain and simple. Everyone knows that OL is currently a weak point on the team, but it's important to parse out who's worse than who and in this case, it's very, very obvious.
The right side of the line was the strength of the unit versus Kansas. Jake McMillon, amidst a down season from last year where he broke out lined up next to Connor Williams at LG (where I still think he should be playing this year), played at a level above his season-long baseline and allowed no direct disruption over the course of the game. Like Vahe, he plays better when Shackelford on the field as opposed to Cuney. Again, how this staff starts Cuney over a healthy Shackelford is beyond confounding and makes me wonder if there is something going on behind the scenes. There is zero reason based on what we've seen on film in the actual games.
I know that someone will chime in about my knockdowns-count on Derek Kerstetter being at 6 as opposed to the 7 quoted by Tom Herman in his press conference, and invariably, someone will ask why I have him graded at a 77-ish grade while Herman said his score was an 87%. So I'll address those two items here in the column to save everyone a little time and heart ache:
1) On the knockdowns: I honestly think I should have only credited him with 5. I think Warehime gives credit for "knockdowns" whenever a player is engaged with a defender, then the defender, in an attempt to make a tackle while still in the relative grasp of the lineman, attempts to make a tackle and goes to the ground with the OL toppling on top of him. I don't generally count that type of effort as a knockdown because the OL didn't really knock down the DL as much as the DL voluntarily went to the ground in an effort to contribute on a tackle.
2) I think most people who read this column by now know that my system for grading is an NFL draft projection system that isn't anything like what a coach does when watching film and giving grades. While Joe Wickline was in town, guys like Taylor Doyle would frequently score 90% and similar grades because those grades are given as a percentage of plays where the player either a) did his job; or b) didn't score negatively. If I were to grade players like that, for the record, here's how it would look:
Derek Kerstetter: 70 snaps, 5 negatively graded plays = 7.1% negative plays =
a score of 92.9% versus Kansas.
Look at that - I'm actually an easier grader than Warehime when we put things in context.
