Daily Short #101, November 14th, 2017: Deep Dig - Updated Defensive Rankings
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TIER ONE
T1) LB Malik Jefferson - 71 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 1)
SEASON: 13.16% market share of defensive productivity; 6.29 snaps per production caused (2nd) *among 21 players with at least 80 defensive snaps on the season
T1) S Deshon Elliott - 70 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 2)
SEASON: 13.16% market share of defensive productivity; 6.37 snaps per production caused (3rd)
3) CB Holton Hill - 0 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 3)1313
SEASON: 11.39% market share of defensive productivity; 6.52 snaps per production caused (6th)
4) NT Poona Ford - 42 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 4)
SEASON: 8.95% market share of defensive productivity; 6.39 snaps per production caused (4th)
The top tier of the rankings took a major hit with the season-ending suspension of Holton Hill (who at least must not be on the worst of terms with the coaching, staff seeing as he was all smiles on the sidelines versus Kansas when the LHN cameras would inexplicably cut to random sideline imagery during game-action). The camera crew and producers must have taken notes from recent ESPNU game coverage. But I digress.
With Hill likely to drop out of the top tier over the course of the final two games of the season, it will be an interesting race to the finish between Malik Jefferson and Deshon Elliott -- one that feels comparable to the 2015 finish in the rankings that saw a squeaker between Hassan Ridgeway and Jefferson. A quiet first half from Jefferson (probably the least impact we've seen from him all season was in quarters one and two versus Kansas, which may have had to do with his "illness" or a small toe injury) coupled with another uber-efficient outing from Elliott actually brought the two players to an exact tie atop the rankings.
With a defense that has shifted (likely for the remainder of the season given spread-nature of the future opponents on tap) to the lightning dime-package which features three safety-type players, Elliott has moved into a role that could, at times, almost be described as a dime-linebacker. He lines up everywhere from the slot to inside at linebacker depth to off the edge to way back in center field. Outside of Malik Jefferson, Elliott is the player who Coach Todd Orlando is on the way to making the most NFL money for.
Holton Hill was always poised to always eventually break out as the team's best cover-corner given his physical attributes and position-specific functional skills, but a player like Elliott could only truly be the demon he's become thanks to excellent scheming.
I don't think Elliott will go pro after his junior season, but I think he'd be wise to at least receive feedback from the league about his draft projection. While I'd wager on a return, you never know what the scouts could be thinking and he's had the type of year where he owes himself that knowledge. Assuming Holton Hill moves on to his next phase along with Malik Jefferson (and assuming health, absence of unforeseen circumstances, etc.) Elliott would certainly come into the 2018 season as Texas' best player on defense. The dude is a heavy hitter and a menace. He's fast and long and has a nose for the football, be it in the air or in the hands of a ball-carrier. All of the sudden, the infamous shadow-boxer has become a straight-up dog.
. . .
TIER TWO
5) LB Gary Johnson - 59 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 5)
SEASON: 6.08% market share of defensive productivity; 6.58 snaps per production caused (7th)
6) DE/LB Breckyn Hager - 42 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 6)
SEASON: 5.73% market share of defensive productivity; 5.09 snaps per production caused (1st)
Not much to say here, and Todd Orlando has done so many things right this season that I'm not going to waste space or energy in this column complaining about his early season personnel decisions to bury these two players for far-less optimal options. Nor will I call out the posters in these forums who called my cries for more Hager as related in some cockamamie way to my having gone to the same high school he did. The effectiveness speaks for itself, Westlake allegiances be damned.
. . .
TIER THREE
7) S Brandon Jones - 70 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 7)
SEASON: 4.90% market share of defensive productivity; 16.95 snaps per production caused (18th)
8) CB Kris Boyd - 69 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 9)
SEASON: 4.7% market share of defensive productivity; 16.12 snaps per production caused (17th)
9) DE Charles Omenihu - 39 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 8)
SEASON: 4.01% market share of defensive productivity; 14.25 snaps per production caused (14th)
10) LB Anthony Wheeler - 20 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 10)
SEASON: 3.73% market share of defensive productivity; 14.29 snaps per production caused (15th)
11) DE Malcolm Roach - 34 snaps vs.Kansas (Previous Rank: 12)
SEASON: 3.7% market share of defensive productivity; 12.97 snaps per production caused (13th)
12) NCB PJ Locke - 0 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 11)
SEASON: 3.52% market share of defensive productivity; 16.06 snaps per production caused (16th)
13) DE Chris Nelson - 26 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 13)
SEASON: 3.38% market share of defensive productivity; 11.43 snaps per production caused (12th)
14) DB John Bonney - 5 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 14)
SEASON: 3.13% market share of defensive productivity; 8.99 snaps per production caused (9th)
Nowhere near as much movement in the third tier of rankings as there was in the backup tier where we have ...
- Antwuan Davis basically instantly moving into the fringe of starter-level production, even having only played 178 snaps on the season, about one-third that of the starting DBs. I don't think we're going to see PJ Locke again this season due to his injury, but even if he were to become available, the staff would have a tough decision on its hands at the nickel as Davis has been much more efficient on a per-snap (10th of 21 qualifiers) basis than Locke (16th of 21 qualifiers).
- Jason Hall making a similar jump when given volume. The rankings and per-snap production metrics have shown all season that in limited samples, Hall is extremely efficient in causing production. Add volume, get production, pretty simple. Now that he has enough snaps to qualify, he's the second-most productive Texas DB on a per-snap basis behind Deshon Elliott. Making the move from John Bonney to Hall at the third safety spot appears to have have been a positive-EV one and it should continue as long as the staff keeps the current scheme in place.
- In the place of Holton Hill, Davante Davis got his first truly extended run of the 2017 season. He was the odds-on favorite to take over these duties. Plus, after getting beat in the one opportunity he had in 5 backup snaps, freshman Josh Thompson doesn't look like a sure-thing to overtake Davis this season. (On a side note, the CB opposite Thompson, redshirt FR Donovan Duvernay, also got burned). Those five snaps of backup-work had to chap Orlando's hide somewhat. Davis did allow one coverage burn himself where he got #soned by a smaller receiver on a 50/50 ball, but outside of that play, he was fairly effective, being targeted 7 times in coverage and only allowing three receptions while also generating one very explosive blowup. With his performance, Davis moved out of last place in the per-snap production metrics, sending Naashon Hughes -- who has rightfully seen his snap participation dwindle since the integration of lightning -- to the bottom of the cellar.
BACKUP-LEVEL PRODUCTION
15) DB Antwuan Davis - 69 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 18)
SEASON: 2.44% market share of defensive productivity; 9.3 snaps per production caused (10th)
16) S Jason Hall - 74 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 21)
SEASON: 1.8% market share of defensive productivity; 6.52 snaps per production caused (5th)
17) LB Jeffrey McCulloch - 0 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 15)
SEASON: 1.78% market share of defensive productivity; 7.21 snaps per production caused (8th)
18) LB Naashon Hughes - 24 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 16)
SEASON: 1.56% market share of defensive productivity; 33.39 snaps per production caused (21st)
19) NT Gerald Wilbon - 8 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 17)
SEASON: .96% market share of defensive productivity; 11.33 snaps per production caused (11th)
20) CB Davante Davis - 70 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 24)
SEASON: .77% market share of defensive productivity; 24.29 snaps per production caused (20th)
21) DE Taquon Graham - 12 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 19)
SEASON: .57% market share of defensive productivity; 22.67 snaps per production caused (19th)
22) LB Edwin Freeman - 5 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 20)
SEASON: .38% market share of defensive productivity
23) DE Jamari Chisolm - 5 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: T22)
SEASON: .25% market share of defensive productivity
24) DB Chris Brown - 5 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 25)
SEASON: .23% market share of defensive productivity
NO PRODUCTION (SEASON)
DE D'Andre Christmas - 0 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 27)
SEASON: 0% market share of defensive productivity
NEGATIVE PRODUCTION (SEASON)
CB Josh Thompson - 5 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: T22)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
CB Donovan Duvernay - 5 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
presented by the Dental Offices of Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
The Absolute BEST in family and cosmetic dentistry for the Houston-Memorial Area
Now Accepting New Patients --- 281-293-9140
TIER ONE
T1) LB Malik Jefferson - 71 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 1)
SEASON: 13.16% market share of defensive productivity; 6.29 snaps per production caused (2nd) *among 21 players with at least 80 defensive snaps on the season
T1) S Deshon Elliott - 70 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 2)
SEASON: 13.16% market share of defensive productivity; 6.37 snaps per production caused (3rd)
3) CB Holton Hill - 0 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 3)1313
SEASON: 11.39% market share of defensive productivity; 6.52 snaps per production caused (6th)
4) NT Poona Ford - 42 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 4)
SEASON: 8.95% market share of defensive productivity; 6.39 snaps per production caused (4th)
The top tier of the rankings took a major hit with the season-ending suspension of Holton Hill (who at least must not be on the worst of terms with the coaching, staff seeing as he was all smiles on the sidelines versus Kansas when the LHN cameras would inexplicably cut to random sideline imagery during game-action). The camera crew and producers must have taken notes from recent ESPNU game coverage. But I digress.
With Hill likely to drop out of the top tier over the course of the final two games of the season, it will be an interesting race to the finish between Malik Jefferson and Deshon Elliott -- one that feels comparable to the 2015 finish in the rankings that saw a squeaker between Hassan Ridgeway and Jefferson. A quiet first half from Jefferson (probably the least impact we've seen from him all season was in quarters one and two versus Kansas, which may have had to do with his "illness" or a small toe injury) coupled with another uber-efficient outing from Elliott actually brought the two players to an exact tie atop the rankings.
With a defense that has shifted (likely for the remainder of the season given spread-nature of the future opponents on tap) to the lightning dime-package which features three safety-type players, Elliott has moved into a role that could, at times, almost be described as a dime-linebacker. He lines up everywhere from the slot to inside at linebacker depth to off the edge to way back in center field. Outside of Malik Jefferson, Elliott is the player who Coach Todd Orlando is on the way to making the most NFL money for.
Holton Hill was always poised to always eventually break out as the team's best cover-corner given his physical attributes and position-specific functional skills, but a player like Elliott could only truly be the demon he's become thanks to excellent scheming.
I don't think Elliott will go pro after his junior season, but I think he'd be wise to at least receive feedback from the league about his draft projection. While I'd wager on a return, you never know what the scouts could be thinking and he's had the type of year where he owes himself that knowledge. Assuming Holton Hill moves on to his next phase along with Malik Jefferson (and assuming health, absence of unforeseen circumstances, etc.) Elliott would certainly come into the 2018 season as Texas' best player on defense. The dude is a heavy hitter and a menace. He's fast and long and has a nose for the football, be it in the air or in the hands of a ball-carrier. All of the sudden, the infamous shadow-boxer has become a straight-up dog.
. . .
TIER TWO
5) LB Gary Johnson - 59 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 5)
SEASON: 6.08% market share of defensive productivity; 6.58 snaps per production caused (7th)
6) DE/LB Breckyn Hager - 42 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 6)
SEASON: 5.73% market share of defensive productivity; 5.09 snaps per production caused (1st)
Not much to say here, and Todd Orlando has done so many things right this season that I'm not going to waste space or energy in this column complaining about his early season personnel decisions to bury these two players for far-less optimal options. Nor will I call out the posters in these forums who called my cries for more Hager as related in some cockamamie way to my having gone to the same high school he did. The effectiveness speaks for itself, Westlake allegiances be damned.
. . .
TIER THREE
7) S Brandon Jones - 70 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 7)
SEASON: 4.90% market share of defensive productivity; 16.95 snaps per production caused (18th)
8) CB Kris Boyd - 69 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 9)
SEASON: 4.7% market share of defensive productivity; 16.12 snaps per production caused (17th)
9) DE Charles Omenihu - 39 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 8)
SEASON: 4.01% market share of defensive productivity; 14.25 snaps per production caused (14th)
10) LB Anthony Wheeler - 20 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 10)
SEASON: 3.73% market share of defensive productivity; 14.29 snaps per production caused (15th)
11) DE Malcolm Roach - 34 snaps vs.Kansas (Previous Rank: 12)
SEASON: 3.7% market share of defensive productivity; 12.97 snaps per production caused (13th)
12) NCB PJ Locke - 0 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 11)
SEASON: 3.52% market share of defensive productivity; 16.06 snaps per production caused (16th)
13) DE Chris Nelson - 26 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 13)
SEASON: 3.38% market share of defensive productivity; 11.43 snaps per production caused (12th)
14) DB John Bonney - 5 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 14)
SEASON: 3.13% market share of defensive productivity; 8.99 snaps per production caused (9th)
Nowhere near as much movement in the third tier of rankings as there was in the backup tier where we have ...
- Antwuan Davis basically instantly moving into the fringe of starter-level production, even having only played 178 snaps on the season, about one-third that of the starting DBs. I don't think we're going to see PJ Locke again this season due to his injury, but even if he were to become available, the staff would have a tough decision on its hands at the nickel as Davis has been much more efficient on a per-snap (10th of 21 qualifiers) basis than Locke (16th of 21 qualifiers).
- Jason Hall making a similar jump when given volume. The rankings and per-snap production metrics have shown all season that in limited samples, Hall is extremely efficient in causing production. Add volume, get production, pretty simple. Now that he has enough snaps to qualify, he's the second-most productive Texas DB on a per-snap basis behind Deshon Elliott. Making the move from John Bonney to Hall at the third safety spot appears to have have been a positive-EV one and it should continue as long as the staff keeps the current scheme in place.
- In the place of Holton Hill, Davante Davis got his first truly extended run of the 2017 season. He was the odds-on favorite to take over these duties. Plus, after getting beat in the one opportunity he had in 5 backup snaps, freshman Josh Thompson doesn't look like a sure-thing to overtake Davis this season. (On a side note, the CB opposite Thompson, redshirt FR Donovan Duvernay, also got burned). Those five snaps of backup-work had to chap Orlando's hide somewhat. Davis did allow one coverage burn himself where he got #soned by a smaller receiver on a 50/50 ball, but outside of that play, he was fairly effective, being targeted 7 times in coverage and only allowing three receptions while also generating one very explosive blowup. With his performance, Davis moved out of last place in the per-snap production metrics, sending Naashon Hughes -- who has rightfully seen his snap participation dwindle since the integration of lightning -- to the bottom of the cellar.
BACKUP-LEVEL PRODUCTION
15) DB Antwuan Davis - 69 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 18)
SEASON: 2.44% market share of defensive productivity; 9.3 snaps per production caused (10th)
16) S Jason Hall - 74 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 21)
SEASON: 1.8% market share of defensive productivity; 6.52 snaps per production caused (5th)
17) LB Jeffrey McCulloch - 0 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 15)
SEASON: 1.78% market share of defensive productivity; 7.21 snaps per production caused (8th)
18) LB Naashon Hughes - 24 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 16)
SEASON: 1.56% market share of defensive productivity; 33.39 snaps per production caused (21st)
19) NT Gerald Wilbon - 8 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 17)
SEASON: .96% market share of defensive productivity; 11.33 snaps per production caused (11th)
20) CB Davante Davis - 70 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 24)
SEASON: .77% market share of defensive productivity; 24.29 snaps per production caused (20th)
21) DE Taquon Graham - 12 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 19)
SEASON: .57% market share of defensive productivity; 22.67 snaps per production caused (19th)
22) LB Edwin Freeman - 5 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: 20)
SEASON: .38% market share of defensive productivity
23) DE Jamari Chisolm - 5 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: T22)
SEASON: .25% market share of defensive productivity
24) DB Chris Brown - 5 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 25)
SEASON: .23% market share of defensive productivity
NO PRODUCTION (SEASON)
DE D'Andre Christmas - 0 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 27)
SEASON: 0% market share of defensive productivity
NEGATIVE PRODUCTION (SEASON)
CB Josh Thompson - 5 snaps vs. Kansas (Previous Rank: T22)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
CB Donovan Duvernay - 5 snaps vs. Kansas(Previous Rank: 26)
SEASON: negative defensive productivity
