No one wants to hear about the 2015 Texas offense.
We believe most Longhorn fans have already compartmentalized the campaign within memory banks protected by neural warning signs, loudly flashing “do not disturb” and “no trespassing.”
“DANGER: Hazardous Waste,” and the like.
Those dark closets in everyone’s cognitive structure - where skeletons are sent via defense mechanism to lie dormant and hopefully, eventually decompose.
And as our brains have evolved to protect us - in many ways, as much from ourselves as from our enemies - we’ve learned to master the art of moving on … and remaining hopeful.
Because otherwise, all we are is hopeless.
We welcome you back to …
The Deep Dig: Season Finale - Offense
presented by Hat Creek Burger Company
Offensive Skill Position Total 2015 Season Snap Counts
Just like on the defensive side of the ball, in the case of Malik Jefferson, Texas’ most experienced returning player based on 2015 snaps alone is another true-freshman difference-maker in John Burt.
We need to always remember that offenses are built on foundation pieces.
When you look at the Texas 2016 offense, you see a house that’s starting to get some alarmingly good bones to it. A returning freshman All-American offensive tackle to protect the quarterback, another freshman All-American lineman at right guard to road-grade for fantastic young backs in D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren, a young outside playmaker in John Burt.
Peripheral options with size, speed and talent are everywhere: Deandre McNeal, Ryan Newsome, Roderick Bernard … Texas has enough offensive weapons to keep guys like Dorian Leonard and Lorenzo Joe, who’d likely be starting contributors at numerous rival Big 12 programs, largely off the field.
As we’ll see below in the production/snap section, it wasn’t like Burt came in and lit the 40 Acres on any kind of statistical fire, though. No one did. An anemic and embarrassing offense overseen by Shawn Watson and enabled into existence by Charlie Strong was baby-sat for the majority of the season by a Jay Norvell and Jeff Traylor mishmash. Notable offensive numbers for anyone outside of QB Tyrone Swoopes are nonexistent when looking back on the season as a whole.
Swoopes played just under half the total snaps that Jerrod Heard did in 2015, and most arguments outside of pure projection of improvement, perception and conjecture would lead outside observers to believe that Swoopes was the much better quarterback in 2015. It should be noted, however, that Swoopes’ production was basically set up for him … like getting handed a shotgun and a small barrel of fish.
The “18-wheeler” package not only put Swoopes in constant position near the goal line as a runner in the heavy QB-Power set, it also allowed Swoopes to operate without thinking and processing things like a quarterback should. Tyrone Swoopes was a glorified running back in 2015. The statistically monstrous season he had, thanks to red-zone rushes aided by a bevy of blockers, is a mirage. The only time fans have seen Tyrone Swoopes succeed consistently as a quarterback have been in times when he wasn’t asked to truly be one.
We need to always remember that the “talent problem” at Texas is slowly becoming more media narrative than truth.
We don’t completely dismiss star rankings at the Deep Dig, because we know the good work that so many national recruiting analysts do with getting their eyes on prospects and gathering football intel. If enough national analysts get their eyes on a player to have him as a consensus four or five-star, we chalk that player up as very likely being very good.
However, there’s just too many kids and not enough camps and not enough time and not enough literal eyeballs to give an all-encompassing evaluation, hence two-stars like D’Onta Foreman.
People can talk about Top 10 or Top 15, Top 20 classes all day and while those, as discussed, should serve as significant talent-barometers on the whole, the eyeball test trumps all at the Deep Dig. Texas currently has the athletes on campus to seriously contend for a Big 12 title with good-to-above-average offensive coaching.
That’s the truth today, in 2016. We say get these 2014 narratives about an "empty cupboard Mack Brown left behind" out of your conscious experience along with the rest of the flush.
Of the Top 10 skill-position snap leaders on the 2015 Texas offense, seven will return in 2016: John Burt, Jerrod Heard, Armanti Foreman, Andrew Beck, Caleb Bluiett (who will hopefully return on the defensive side of the ball), D’Onta Foreman and Tyrone Swoopes.
Moving on from Texas among the Top 10 snap-leaders are:
WR Daje Johnson - A lightning-fast enigma during his time at Texas and a player who fell just short of becoming the successful Charlie Strong-reclamation project that so many fans had hoped for. While Johnson seemed to get his head on straight and perform serviceably through the twilight of his Texas football career, he never became a reliable difference-maker. Let’s file this one away once and for all wherever the D.J. Monroe skeletons are residing.
WR Marcus Johnson - A hard-working and generally reliable receiver who seemed pigeonholed by bad QB play, a lack of consistency among position coaches and lingering injuries through the end of his Texas career - all during the time he was certainly hoping for a breakout.
RB Johnathan Gray - A terrific team leader and a locker-room presence with all the intangibles a coach could dream of. Lifetime Longhorn. However, Gray was a player sapped of his explosive ability following his first Achilles tear, and one that we can finally officially chalk up to being very overhyped coming out of high school with five-star prospect status. Gray is a loss to the locker room and the fiber of the Longhorns’ new culture, but far less of one to the actual on-field product.
In fact, you could almost call it addition-by-subtraction due the opportunity cost associated with keeping D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren off of the field …
Offensive Skill-Player 2015 Statistical Production Per-Snap
Offensive Line Total Snaps (2015 season)
Offensive Line Snaps Per Disruption Allowed
Let’s just get it out there, Kent Perkins needs to pick it up.
Perkins came into his junior season at Texas seemingly poised to possibly bump back inside to his more natural position of guard and pave the way for a 2015 season that would lead to a 2016 filled with NFL draft hype.
As far as we can tell, that sure doesn’t seem to be the case. Perkins graded, as you’ll soon see, respectably on the season, but did so in spite of allowing horrible disruption. Perkins was an on/off player in 2015 who, looking back on the season as a whole, failed to progress in all ways but these:
- He was stronger. Bigger and stronger and physically more powerful.
- More dominant than ever when the switch was “on.” The Deep Dig graded 64 of Perkins’ 2015 run-blocking snaps with an above-average grade or better. It didn’t matter whether it was in zone concepts or in power concepts, either. Of those 64 plays, 35 of them (54%) were power and/or draw/lead/gap-based while 29 were zone schemes.
As Texas moves on to much more of a man-and-power based attack in the trenches for run-downs, Perkins will have the opportunity to become more focused on his techniques in ways that should lead to continued periods of dominance. The issue to monitor, and we Lord knows we will, is going to be whether it comes consistently.
The story with Perkins, when looking at the entire body of work, is that he didn’t do one thing consistently to give up disruption. It wasn’t like Patrick Vahe. You see, in Vahe’s case, we knew that his issue coming in was going to be getting his feet, positioning and balance right to handle and disallow interior pressure. Charlie Strong said as much at availabilities coming into the season. When you look at Vahe’s disruption achilles heel in 2015, the Deep Dig correspondingly shows that it was in allowing pressures.
Perkins, however, dipped his toes pretty firmly into both the run and pass-sides of the disruption equation, allowing the most QB pressures of anyone on the team and second-most run-stuffs despite missing two games.
If Perkins allows half the disruption he did last season while improving his percentage of above-average-to-dominant run-snaps as graded by the Deep Dig a few ticks to 18-20% in 2016, he’ll be the first Texas offensive lineman taken in the NFL draft in almost a decade.
It’s up to Kent Perkins.
Deep Dig Offensive Line Grades By Game
What can we really say at this point about Connor Williams and Patrick Vahe? The Deep Dig almost lives vicariously through the two players as so much of our work this season has been chronicling their respective performances and sharing the good news. Those two players at those two positions coming on board at the same time are program-changers.
Like we talked about before, the bones of the house. All-American bones on offense, right at the foundation. Williams graded out higher than Vahe on the season, but both players played at an above-average level on the whole, bordering (on-average) at a level near NFL UDFA-status for periods of the season as true freshmen.
OG Elijah Rodriguez looked horrible in the 2015 Spring Game, actually, disastrous is the better adjective. Rodriguez seemingly improved through the 2015 season though, and was reportedly in the mix with the first group at practice during times when starters were out with injury. When looking at the grade averages, we see that Rodriguez graded out as above-average in the only game in which he saw enough snaps to qualify as an adequate sample-size vs. TCU. Rodriguez also shows up in third-place overall in snaps-per-disruption allowed just behind Williams and Vahe, which, despite the rocky start, indicate that Rodriguez is likely the player trending most strongly toward starter-status coming into the Spring of 2016.
OT Tristan Nickelson is a towering, lumbering tackle who the Deep Dig has said from Jump Street will be rounding into form as a serviceable option with nice upside by the end of the 2016 season. We see no reason (positively or negatively) to diverge from that line of thinking at this juncture.
OT Garrett Thomas, OG Brandon Hodges, C Terrell Cuney and OT Ronnie Major all failed to log an offensive snap in 2015, but return in 2016 as options to fill holes left in the unit by the departing Sedrick Flowers, Marcus Hutchins and Taylor Doyle as well as provide quality depth.
They’ll have to work to hold off a few new true-freshmen, though,
and like that … here we are.
A whole new football season.
As we slam 2015's basement door shut, unneeded memories packed carefully away by the miracle of our own human neurology, we embrace the clean slate. Living, as always, in constant anticipation of a future Texas monster.
We thank you, once again, for reading.
We believe most Longhorn fans have already compartmentalized the campaign within memory banks protected by neural warning signs, loudly flashing “do not disturb” and “no trespassing.”
“DANGER: Hazardous Waste,” and the like.
Those dark closets in everyone’s cognitive structure - where skeletons are sent via defense mechanism to lie dormant and hopefully, eventually decompose.
And as our brains have evolved to protect us - in many ways, as much from ourselves as from our enemies - we’ve learned to master the art of moving on … and remaining hopeful.
Because otherwise, all we are is hopeless.
We welcome you back to …
. . .
The Deep Dig: Season Finale - Offense
presented by Hat Creek Burger Company
. . .
Offensive Skill Position Total 2015 Season Snap Counts
Just like on the defensive side of the ball, in the case of Malik Jefferson, Texas’ most experienced returning player based on 2015 snaps alone is another true-freshman difference-maker in John Burt.
. . .
We need to always remember that offenses are built on foundation pieces.
When you look at the Texas 2016 offense, you see a house that’s starting to get some alarmingly good bones to it. A returning freshman All-American offensive tackle to protect the quarterback, another freshman All-American lineman at right guard to road-grade for fantastic young backs in D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren, a young outside playmaker in John Burt.
Peripheral options with size, speed and talent are everywhere: Deandre McNeal, Ryan Newsome, Roderick Bernard … Texas has enough offensive weapons to keep guys like Dorian Leonard and Lorenzo Joe, who’d likely be starting contributors at numerous rival Big 12 programs, largely off the field.
As we’ll see below in the production/snap section, it wasn’t like Burt came in and lit the 40 Acres on any kind of statistical fire, though. No one did. An anemic and embarrassing offense overseen by Shawn Watson and enabled into existence by Charlie Strong was baby-sat for the majority of the season by a Jay Norvell and Jeff Traylor mishmash. Notable offensive numbers for anyone outside of QB Tyrone Swoopes are nonexistent when looking back on the season as a whole.
Swoopes played just under half the total snaps that Jerrod Heard did in 2015, and most arguments outside of pure projection of improvement, perception and conjecture would lead outside observers to believe that Swoopes was the much better quarterback in 2015. It should be noted, however, that Swoopes’ production was basically set up for him … like getting handed a shotgun and a small barrel of fish.
The “18-wheeler” package not only put Swoopes in constant position near the goal line as a runner in the heavy QB-Power set, it also allowed Swoopes to operate without thinking and processing things like a quarterback should. Tyrone Swoopes was a glorified running back in 2015. The statistically monstrous season he had, thanks to red-zone rushes aided by a bevy of blockers, is a mirage. The only time fans have seen Tyrone Swoopes succeed consistently as a quarterback have been in times when he wasn’t asked to truly be one.
. . .
We need to always remember that the “talent problem” at Texas is slowly becoming more media narrative than truth.
We don’t completely dismiss star rankings at the Deep Dig, because we know the good work that so many national recruiting analysts do with getting their eyes on prospects and gathering football intel. If enough national analysts get their eyes on a player to have him as a consensus four or five-star, we chalk that player up as very likely being very good.
However, there’s just too many kids and not enough camps and not enough time and not enough literal eyeballs to give an all-encompassing evaluation, hence two-stars like D’Onta Foreman.
People can talk about Top 10 or Top 15, Top 20 classes all day and while those, as discussed, should serve as significant talent-barometers on the whole, the eyeball test trumps all at the Deep Dig. Texas currently has the athletes on campus to seriously contend for a Big 12 title with good-to-above-average offensive coaching.
That’s the truth today, in 2016. We say get these 2014 narratives about an "empty cupboard Mack Brown left behind" out of your conscious experience along with the rest of the flush.
. . .
Of the Top 10 skill-position snap leaders on the 2015 Texas offense, seven will return in 2016: John Burt, Jerrod Heard, Armanti Foreman, Andrew Beck, Caleb Bluiett (who will hopefully return on the defensive side of the ball), D’Onta Foreman and Tyrone Swoopes.
Moving on from Texas among the Top 10 snap-leaders are:
WR Daje Johnson - A lightning-fast enigma during his time at Texas and a player who fell just short of becoming the successful Charlie Strong-reclamation project that so many fans had hoped for. While Johnson seemed to get his head on straight and perform serviceably through the twilight of his Texas football career, he never became a reliable difference-maker. Let’s file this one away once and for all wherever the D.J. Monroe skeletons are residing.
WR Marcus Johnson - A hard-working and generally reliable receiver who seemed pigeonholed by bad QB play, a lack of consistency among position coaches and lingering injuries through the end of his Texas career - all during the time he was certainly hoping for a breakout.
RB Johnathan Gray - A terrific team leader and a locker-room presence with all the intangibles a coach could dream of. Lifetime Longhorn. However, Gray was a player sapped of his explosive ability following his first Achilles tear, and one that we can finally officially chalk up to being very overhyped coming out of high school with five-star prospect status. Gray is a loss to the locker room and the fiber of the Longhorns’ new culture, but far less of one to the actual on-field product.
In fact, you could almost call it addition-by-subtraction due the opportunity cost associated with keeping D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren off of the field …
. . .
Offensive Skill-Player 2015 Statistical Production Per-Snap
. . .
Offensive Line Total Snaps (2015 season)
. . .
Offensive Line Snaps Per Disruption Allowed
Let’s just get it out there, Kent Perkins needs to pick it up.
Perkins came into his junior season at Texas seemingly poised to possibly bump back inside to his more natural position of guard and pave the way for a 2015 season that would lead to a 2016 filled with NFL draft hype.
As far as we can tell, that sure doesn’t seem to be the case. Perkins graded, as you’ll soon see, respectably on the season, but did so in spite of allowing horrible disruption. Perkins was an on/off player in 2015 who, looking back on the season as a whole, failed to progress in all ways but these:
- He was stronger. Bigger and stronger and physically more powerful.
- More dominant than ever when the switch was “on.” The Deep Dig graded 64 of Perkins’ 2015 run-blocking snaps with an above-average grade or better. It didn’t matter whether it was in zone concepts or in power concepts, either. Of those 64 plays, 35 of them (54%) were power and/or draw/lead/gap-based while 29 were zone schemes.
As Texas moves on to much more of a man-and-power based attack in the trenches for run-downs, Perkins will have the opportunity to become more focused on his techniques in ways that should lead to continued periods of dominance. The issue to monitor, and we Lord knows we will, is going to be whether it comes consistently.
The story with Perkins, when looking at the entire body of work, is that he didn’t do one thing consistently to give up disruption. It wasn’t like Patrick Vahe. You see, in Vahe’s case, we knew that his issue coming in was going to be getting his feet, positioning and balance right to handle and disallow interior pressure. Charlie Strong said as much at availabilities coming into the season. When you look at Vahe’s disruption achilles heel in 2015, the Deep Dig correspondingly shows that it was in allowing pressures.
Perkins, however, dipped his toes pretty firmly into both the run and pass-sides of the disruption equation, allowing the most QB pressures of anyone on the team and second-most run-stuffs despite missing two games.
If Perkins allows half the disruption he did last season while improving his percentage of above-average-to-dominant run-snaps as graded by the Deep Dig a few ticks to 18-20% in 2016, he’ll be the first Texas offensive lineman taken in the NFL draft in almost a decade.
It’s up to Kent Perkins.
. . .
Deep Dig Offensive Line Grades By Game
What can we really say at this point about Connor Williams and Patrick Vahe? The Deep Dig almost lives vicariously through the two players as so much of our work this season has been chronicling their respective performances and sharing the good news. Those two players at those two positions coming on board at the same time are program-changers.
Like we talked about before, the bones of the house. All-American bones on offense, right at the foundation. Williams graded out higher than Vahe on the season, but both players played at an above-average level on the whole, bordering (on-average) at a level near NFL UDFA-status for periods of the season as true freshmen.
OG Elijah Rodriguez looked horrible in the 2015 Spring Game, actually, disastrous is the better adjective. Rodriguez seemingly improved through the 2015 season though, and was reportedly in the mix with the first group at practice during times when starters were out with injury. When looking at the grade averages, we see that Rodriguez graded out as above-average in the only game in which he saw enough snaps to qualify as an adequate sample-size vs. TCU. Rodriguez also shows up in third-place overall in snaps-per-disruption allowed just behind Williams and Vahe, which, despite the rocky start, indicate that Rodriguez is likely the player trending most strongly toward starter-status coming into the Spring of 2016.
OT Tristan Nickelson is a towering, lumbering tackle who the Deep Dig has said from Jump Street will be rounding into form as a serviceable option with nice upside by the end of the 2016 season. We see no reason (positively or negatively) to diverge from that line of thinking at this juncture.
OT Garrett Thomas, OG Brandon Hodges, C Terrell Cuney and OT Ronnie Major all failed to log an offensive snap in 2015, but return in 2016 as options to fill holes left in the unit by the departing Sedrick Flowers, Marcus Hutchins and Taylor Doyle as well as provide quality depth.
They’ll have to work to hold off a few new true-freshmen, though,
and like that … here we are.
A whole new football season.
As we slam 2015's basement door shut, unneeded memories packed carefully away by the miracle of our own human neurology, we embrace the clean slate. Living, as always, in constant anticipation of a future Texas monster.
We thank you, once again, for reading.
. . .
