Donny's Out of his Element, but Dustin's 9 dude-abiding thoughts are not...(Herman and expectations)

DustinMcComas

You are what your fWAR says you are.
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Apr 26, 2005
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Wooten, Austin
They gave the Dude a sponsor…

Very excited to say this week’s column is brought to you by WYLD GALLERY, and you can go check out the gallery this Saturday at its opening:

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VISIT WYLD.GALLERY AND SHOP UNIQUE, NATIVE AMERICAN ART

WYLD GALLERY is a downtown Austin gallery featuring traditional and contemporary fine art by Native American Artists.

The gallery is the part-time retirement gig for Ray Donley, an Austin attorney who has been a lurker on OB since 2002. Ray has been collecting Native American art since the 1980s. He has made friends with a number of Oklahoma Native American Artists, and enjoys ribbing them for their fanatical support of a football team that honors the land thieves who took their land.


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Please check out these unique, vibrant paintings at www.WYLD.GALLERY. Treat yourself to some cool art because everyone has that one wall in their home that could use some more character. And treat yourself to 10% off any online purchase using the coupon code OrangeBloods19.


This week’s column:

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1) We’re going to find out what kind of coach Tom Herman is at Texas
This isn’t the season Texas fans wanted through eight games, and it definitely isn’t the season Texas wanted. What’s done is done. There’s no going back, and quite frankly after watching the TCU game again, you don’t want to go back and dissect what went wrong.

As we look ahead at Texas Football, there’s only one thing for certain: more than any other time during his 35 games, we’re going to find out what Tom Herman can be at Texas.

Yes, Texas is back. It’s back to trying to figure out if it’s going to get back or not. That’s what this season has done. It’s not fun. I know. Trust me. The pain of some posts can be felt through the screen. Right now, the Sugar Bowl probably feels like, well, the best way I can describe it is from my eighth-grade year. I had a crush on a girl for years, and finally started going out with her. After all that time, I finally reeled her in, and was on top of the world. I couldn’t wait to go to school Monday and euphorically walk around with my chest out. We started going out on Friday. She dumped me before Monday even arrived.

Cheesy, I know. But Texas Football is young love for many of you, and you probably felt like you were just dumped. I wrote a very angry AOL Instant Messenger away message. Now, some people prefer the Orangebloods message board to deliver their version. I can’t fault it. You should have expectations. You should expect more. You should expect better. You should expect another step forward this season. You should be angry, confused, crushed, concerned, curious or done with Texas Football… until that love reels you back in again next week.

What you should also do is approach the final games with an open mind, and an inquisitive approach. We’re going to learn a lot because the first eight games have presented an enormous challenge for Herman. He and his staff went from the toast of the town to, well, whatever the opposite of toast of the town is because they haven’t been good enough. Period.

Yes, we need to account for injuries, youth, and schedule. But we also need to account for what Herman and his staff control, and they haven’t measured up to the expectations at Texas, which weren’t disproportionate this season.

Kansas rolled into Austin with a new offensive coordinator and looked like the Greatest Show on Turf. TCU’s freshman quarterback responded to an early interception by playing the position like a guy that often knew what was coming and was almost always comfortable, and the TCU defense had UT's number. Texas was lucky to even be close against Oklahoma.

Again, there are injuries and youth and all those things. But the problem is the players that have been on the field, generally speaking, haven’t improved and haven’t grown more confident, comfortable, and aggressive. The program’s development has paused and has even started to slide in the wrong direction. That can’t happen in year three. This is when the best of the best coaches are competing for championships consistently if they haven’t already. Don’t believe me? Go look.

Is Herman going to be one of those guys? We’ll find out this season because this 5-3 start is going to test a big boy program like Texas about as much as a season for a third-year coach can. It’s not a fun place for Texas and its fans to be in year three with a coach, but at least you’re going to know one way or another when 2019 ends. Can he keep the locker room together? Can he get his defense to stop being a punchline? Can he put the best offense on the field in every remaining game? Can he make adjustments before, during, and after games like the best in the business do?

Most importantly, can he prove his program is still on the right path after 2018’s successful finish, which foreshadowed an ever better 2019? The only true way to do that is to win football games, and if Texas is going to win a lot of football games the rest of the way, it will need its coaching staff to be at the top of its game.

2) A consistent thought I’ve had each time I watch the week’s game again…
When I go back through each play each week and closely examine Texas through as much of a scouting lens as I can, I often come away thinking Texas is married to what it does and doesn’t adapt enough.

Example: the pressures Texas has used on defense often haven’t worked this season, and especially the zone blitz-type looks. When I watch the Texas defense, I constantly wonder why the defensive staff doesn’t watch film and see how out of sync and how ineffective UT’s blitzing often is. The Big 12 is a good league with good coaching, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Teams are good enough to often get Texas to show a look pre-snap or can quickly figure out an area to exploit when Texas brings pressure.

This was one of the biggest plays of the game at TCU, and you can watch TCU’s offensive line easily pick up a weak blitz, which is aided by the blitzers eventually running into each other before Max Duggan calmly finds a one-on-one situation versus a safety to exploit.



Unfortunately for Texas, the situation often isn’t better when it drops coverage because teams know what Texas often does when it rushes just three, which results in a one-on-one throw somewhere.

Offensively, Texas has been really good this season. But against TCU, Texas faced a secondary that started running some of its routes before it could, and jumped familiar looks that Texas often uses. It wasn’t a coincidence that when Texas has done things like put Devin Duvernay in the slot and send him on a vertical route it has generated long completions and scores. It’s because the defense is caught off guard by Texas doing something different for a change. And I don’t think it’s a coincidence Texas ranks No. 101 nationally in OBD on offense (Busted Drive Rate; percentage of offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards) and ranks 128th on defense in generating those busted drives out of 130 teams.

Texas is an elite offense in almost every other metric, but when teams know what they’re seeing some of the time, they’re going to bust a drive. And on defense, opposing offense almost always play like they know what they’re seeing before the snap and where to attack, which results in barely any drives of zero or negative yards.

I turned on Florida State versus Syracuse Sunday night on my DVR. This is one of the worst Florida State teams of my lifetime, and the coaching has fairly been criticized. On the first defensive drive of the game, FSU came out with a different front and generated two sacks during the first three plays. Texas has three sacks over its last four games. It’s past time for Orlando to adjust to the Big 12 and the way his players are performing.

3) Texas according to the advanced metrics…
S&P+ Overall: 31
FEI Overall: 24
Schedule Strength: 20

S&P+ Offense: 6
FEI Offense: 11

S&P+ Defense: 80
FEI Defense: 59

4) Ranking the Big 12 after week nine (updated S&P+ ranking in parentheses)
Oklahoma (No. 4)
Baylor (No. 17)
Texas (No. 31)
Oklahoma State (No. 27)
Iowa State (No. 18)
TCU (No. 28)
Texas Tech (No. 45)
Kansas State (No. 34)
West Virginia (No. 78)
Kansas (No. 84)

League average: 36.6

Usually there is at least one week during the Big 12 schedule when the league gets sorority girl drunk and chaos ensues. Oklahoma State woke up and won at Iowa State just as it began to look like the Cylones were turning into a really strong storm. Did you see how Kansas beat Texas Tech? It was one of the most unbelievable sequences I’ve ever seen in college football. Kansas State played out the 2018 Texas/OU game in the Cotton Bowl by physically kicking the crap out of the Sooners before the away team realized what was happening. By then, it was too late for OU. And, of course, there was Texas.

This week should be a more normal week. West Virginia plays at Baylor and is a 17.5-point underdog. Kansas State is at Kansas, which I guess is much more interesting now than it was this time last week. TCU is at Oklahoma State. The former is trying to avoid its third league loss while the latter is trying to get to 3-3 in the league.

Basically, unless West Virginia shocks everyone, it should be a pretty tame week of Big 12 football.

NOTE: S&P+ definition

5) Texas Basketball
We’re less than a week away from the start of Texas Basketball. Based on all the conversations I’ve had with Shaka Smart and Texas players and some conversations with sources, this is an estimate of what I think the rotation, with everyone healthy, would look like as of today (subject to change, of course):

STARTERS
Matt Coleman
Courtney Ramey
Jase Febres
Gerald Liddell
Jericho Sims

--- It would be an enormous surprise if Coleman, Ramey, and Febres didn’t start. All three of those guards should play heavy minutes all season, and Coleman will probably be one of the tops in the Big 12 in minutes played. Liddell and Cunningham started both scrimmages, but it sounds like Liddell’s offensive and defensive versatility have him ahead of the more defensive-minded Cunningham. However, if Liddell has to miss multiple practices with his head injury, that could open the door slightly for Cunningham.

At Big 12 Media Day, Smart made it clear frontcourt minutes and roles are up for grabs. It sounds like Royce Hamm, Jr. had some really good moments in extended run versus Ole Miss in UT’s recent closed scrimmage. But Sims has picked it up in practice recently, especially once he was fully recovered from an eye injury.

SIGNIFICANT ROTATION MINUTES OFF THE BENCH
Brock Cunningham
Andrew Jones
Kamaka Hepa
Royce Hamm, Jr.
Will Baker

We’ll see how he adjusts to his first game action in a Longhorn uniform, but I don’t foresee Cunningham failing to carry over what he’s done in practices and scrimmages this far. He knows his role, and he could really excel at it under new defensive guru Luke Yaklich. Plus, the Longhorns need rebounding, and Cunningham comes down with the ball better than any big. How will Jones perform? We’ll see. He’s going to play, but he’ll undoubtedly be rusty because it’s been a long, long time since he’s truly been able to play in games and he’s not back to that form physically, although he’s making progress. Jones might be more of a catch-and-shoot guy than anything initially, but he’s in a good place mentally and can facilitate offense.

Because of Liddell and Cunningham’s emergence, it’s difficult to know how often Hepa will play. He’s going to play, but how much likely depends on situation, opponent, scouting report, and how the other two guys are performing. The sophomore from Alaska can shoot the rock and moves the ball and spaces well on offense. But the defense is an issue.

Like posted above, the rotation at the five spot is undecided the most. As it stands currently, I think it goes Sims, Hamm, Jr., Baker. Baker is going to play, and Texas is going to use a five-out look on offense at times with him on the floor; this is an offense that will also often use bigs at the top of the key to handle the basketball and be decision-makers, which Baker excels at. But I think until proven otherwise, he’s probably a 10-15-minute a game player.

LIMITED MINUTES OFF BENCH
Kai Jones
Donovan Williams

The interesting thing about these two is Smart said at Big 12 Media Day they have the highest potential of anyone on the Texas roster. I think it’s a good thing for the Longhorns they aren’t forced to play potential over production. Both Jones and Williams are very competitive, confident players that play hard. I don’t think Texas is going to have to worry about their approach. But there are only so many minutes to go around.

Jones profiles best at the four spot while Williams could play guard or wing similarly to Liddell. Texas is excited by both but seems especially excited about Williams and his over-the-top confidence. Yesterday, I probably saw him shoot 40 threes in drills and he probably only missed four or five.

6) Texas Baseball
Let’s keep the projected lineup theme going with Texas Baseball following its first fall scrimmage against McLennan and ahead of this Sunday’s against an absolutely loaded San Jacinto squad.

CF – Duke Ellis
RF – Austin Todd
LF – Eric Kennedy
1B – Zach Zubia
C – DJ Petrinsky (still working his way back from injury this fall)
2B – Brenden Dixon
DH – Douglas Hodo/Cam Williams/Murphy Stehly/Sam Bertelson/Peter Geib
3B – Lance Ford
SS – Trey Faltine

If Petrinsky isn’t at catcher in the spring, Silas Ardoin likely would be instead.

SP – Bryce Elder
SP – Ty Madden
SP – Kolby Kubichek

Tuesday – Coy Cobb/Andre Duplantier II/Pete Hansen

What could make the rotation look different is what Texas chooses to do with Cole Quintanilla. He could be stretched out as a starter. In fact, that’s what it looked like was happening last fall, but he was so good out of the bullpen early on Texas left him there.

7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
--- Thankfully, an error in judgment by umpires when they called Trae Turner out last night didn’t become the headline story of the World Series. The better team last night won just like the better team won in Washington D.C. Stephen Strasburg, when he wasn’t tipping his pitches, was sensational and Justin Verlander’s stuff – just three swings and misses on 45 non-fastballs – wasn’t as good as normal.

Speaking of last night, I’m all for first base coaches becoming bat men – or Batmen – when awesome players hit big bombs during the biggest moments of their professional lives. Let the kids play. There’s no harm in it.

Tonight, Houston sends its key trade deadline acquisition to the mound and Washington sends Mad Max with cortisone hanging around near his neck somewhere. I think Scherzer is a bit of a wildcard because he might feel better than he actually is thanks to the shot, and I wonder how his command will be, especially in the later innings. But he’s going to throw hard, and he’s going to attack. Meanwhile, Greinke was better last time out, and Houston needs him to be even better than that this time.

Yordan Alvarez hit the ball harder than 103 MPH twice last night, and Juan Soto did three times. Alex Bregman and George Springer are locked in at the plate and so are Anthony Rendon and Adam Eaton. Game seven. All hands on deck. Everything on the line. This is going to be fun.

--- Can I retract what I said about the Warriors? Defense is optional for them right now in a way that makes 2017 James Harden blush. As for Harden and the Rockets, Russell Westbrook has been their best player and has, much to my delight, not forced the issue much at all on offense while also dramatically increasing Houston’s pace already (No. 2 in the NBA). But Harden and Eric Gordon have started the season colder than the ice cube I put in my glass for the whiskey I drink while I watch them shoot.

NBA fans knew this already, but the first few games have reinforced how freaking loaded the Western Conference is. Think of how many teams have at least two really good players: Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Houston, Clippers, Lakers, Portland, San Antonio, Utah. Loaded. It’s going to be an even more difficult war than it has been in the past.

--- I haven’t had the time to truly dive into the NCAA’s recent move in the image and likeness arena, but I think a lot of the recent outraged is a little misplaced. Basically, I think the NCAA acknowledged change is coming whether it likes it or not, and also acknowledged how difficult it’s going to be to devise a plan and parameters to accompany that change. The NCAA said it’s aware of what’s going on, and knows it’s time to finally give in. But it also said it isn’t sure yet how to make that happen or how it will try to allow that to happen.

--- If I had a top 10 CFB vote…
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. Penn State
6. Florida
7. Oregon
8. Utah
9. Oklahoma
10. Auburn

8) Anything and everything…
--- If trick-or-treaters arrive at the McComas house, they’ll be greeted with a candy combination of Heath bars, Whoppers, Kit Kat, and Reese’s Cups. Oh, and of course there will be a lot of Sour Patch Kids (regular and watermelon) mixed in as well. I take my candy selections for Halloween very seriously. We have an impression to make during the first Halloween in our new neighborhood. Don’t sleep on Heath bars.

--- Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci in a gangster drama? I am all-in on The Irishman. Can't wait.

--- Sometimes, when I’m struggling to write, the little guy attempts to take over. I don’t know if it was the cold or what, but he wanted on my lap and then on the table while I was making a post last night.
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9) This week’s read… is from The New Yorker: Astrology in the Age of Uncertainty

And this week’s featured art from the WYLD GALLERY includes two awesome pieces that can be purchased at the gallery website:

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DIRECT LINK

Bryan Parker’s pop art version of Sitting Bull is based upon an 1883 photograph, taken two years after he surrendered to American authorities in South Dakota. Sitting Bull became a minor celebrity in the same country that had branded him as an outlaw, and Sitting Bull discovered that people were willing to pay him to take his picture.

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DIRECT LINK

Again, fill some of your bye week Saturday by drinking some wine downtown, checking out some truly amazing art, and supporting a longtime Orangebloods.com member. And in the meantime, get to WYLD.GALLERY, get something for yourself, a friend, or your business, and use the coupon code OrangeBloods19 to receive 10% off.
 

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