They gave the Dude a sponsor…
Very excited to say this week’s column is brought to you by WYLD GALLERY:
VISIT WYLD.GALLERY AND EXPLORE AND SHOP UNIQUE NATIVE AMERICAN ART
WYLD GALLERY is a downtown Austin gallery featuring traditional and contemporary fine art by Native American Artists.
The gallery is the part-time retirement gig for Ray Donley, an Austin attorney who has been a lurker on OB since 2002. Ray has been collecting Native American art since the 1980s. He has made friends with a number of Oklahoma Native American Artists, and enjoys ribbing them for their fanatical support of a football team that honors the land thieves who took their land.
Using your Orangebloods coupon, you’ll find many affordable options including some below $200. That’s an outstanding deal, especially during the holiday shopping season.
Contemporary Native American paintings are bold, bright, and never boring. And they will look great on the walls of your office or home. Many of the artists in the gallery have pieces in the permanent collections of museums, including the Smithsonian.
Please check out these unique, vibrant paintings at www.WYLD.GALLERY. Treat yourself to some cool art because everyone has that one wall in their home that could use some more character. And treat yourself to 10% off any online purchase using the coupon code OrangeBloods19.
This week’s column:
1) How far away is Texas?
The TLDR version: not far.
Whether you enjoy your glass half full or see it as half empty, the Longhorns aren’t far away from being the team you want them to be. Seriously, they’re not. Well, at least according to the statistics and recent history.
Perhaps that makes the 2019 season even more infuriating for Texas fans. They know the Big 12 was there for the taking, and they know Texas wasted a prime opportunity. They know what they often saw on Saturdays was a team that needed better direction, developing, planning, and coaching, which was then supported by Tom Herman’s decision to hire two new coordinators.
But what they also know is this isn’t a rebuild sponsored by Charlie Strong and Fathead. Under Strong, Texas finished 53rd, 68th, and 49th in F/+ overall rankings. Under Herman, Texas has finished 41st, 25th, and is currently 28th. Obviously, the 28th ranking this season immediately grabs attention and supports many of the questions and recent coaching staff moves. What’s also obvious is Texas has removed itself from the pit of misery and is on the fringe of breaking through. That is, of course, contingent upon Herman nailing these two coordinator hires, building a better coaching staff, and maximizing the program.
At Texas, there are no rewards for being close. No one rushes to add four numbers to the side of the stadium for almost being good or some newly discovered newspaper clipping from 1919. That said, history has shown that Texas is a couple of good coordinator hires away from competing at the highest level.
I took a look back at each team since 2010 that won its conference and/or played in a top bowl with two losses or fewer at the end of the regular season. Obviously, teams that played for a national championship are included. If a team ended the regular season with three losses, it wasn’t in the College Football Playoff picture, and definitely wasn’t the best team in its conference. The bar for Texas is higher. As fun as the Sugar Bowl win last season was for Texas and its fans, it was supposed to be a big step in the right direction and not a final destination. Texas needs to be where these teams were or currently are, and the gap for Texas isn't that large.
Let’s take a look at those teams offensively and defensively:
2) CFB title contenders on offense…
Texas on offense this season:
FEI - 17
S&P+ - 11
Teams with a top 10 offense in either FEI or S&P+
2010 – 7/8 (Virginia Tech missed by one spot)
2011 – 6/8 (LSU missed but was inside top 20)
2012 – 3/7
2013 – 6/9
2014 – 7/8 (TCU at No. 17)
2015 – 4/10
2016 – 3/8
2017 – 5/10 (Alabama barely missed; USC missed by three spots)
2018 – 5/7
2019 – 4/9
TOTAL: 50/84 (59.5%)
Teams with a top 20 offense in both FEI or S&P+
2010 – 8/8
2011 – 7/8 (Virginia Tech was well outside)
2012 – 3/7 (Notre Dame outside; Florida well outside; FSU barely missed; Stanford well outside)
2013 – 5/9 (Clemson missed by three spots; Michigan State was way outside; Stanford barely missed)
2014 – 8/8
2015 – 4/10 (Alabama missed by four spots; Oklahoma State missed by four spots; Iowa not even close; Ohio State missed by two spots; Michigan State at No. 30; FSU just missed)
2016 – 4/8 (Ohio State missed by about 10 spots; Michigan barely missed; Penn State around 25-30)
2017 – 7/10 (Clemson missed by one spot; Miami not very close)
2018 – 5/7 (Notre Dame missed by about 10 spots; Michigan missed by five spots)
2019 – 5/9 (Georgia missed by about 15 spots; Baylor missed by about 20 spots; Florida missed by two spots; Penn State missed by three spots)
TOTAL: 56/84 (66.7%)
Teams that appeared in a national championship game (in the case of this season all four playoff teams included) since 2010-2019 without a top 10 offense: 5
Teams that appeared in a national championship game since 2010-2019 without a top 20 offense: 2
3) CFB title contenders on defense…
Texas on defense this season:
FEI - 60
S&P+ - 77
Teams with a top 10 defense in either FEI or S&P+
2010 – 5/8
2011 – 3/8
2012 – 5/7 (Oregon missed by a spot)
2013 – 4/9 (Clemson barely missed)
2014 – 2/8
2015 – 4/10
2016 – 4/8
2017 – 6/10 (Washington missed by four spots)
2018 – 5/7
2019 – 6/9 (Oregon missed by one spot; LSU missed by five spots)
TOTAL: 44/84 (52.4%)
Teams with a top 20 defense in both FEI or S&P+
2010 – 5/8 (Auburn missed by about 10 spots; Arkansas barely missed; Virginia Tech missed by about 10 spots; Wisconsin not close)
2011 – 2/8 (Michigan missed by a spot; Virginia Tech missed by about 10 spots; Stanford not close; Oklahoma State just missed; Oregon just missed)
2012 – 6/7 (Kansas State outside)
2013 – 5/9 (Auburn’s best ranking was No. 28; Ohio State well outside; OU barely missed; Baylor barely missed)
2014 – 2/8 (Oregon was around 40; Ohio State missed by four spots; Florida State around 40; Michigan State missed by nine; Baylor missed; Mississippi State at No. 26)
2015 – 4/10 (Oklahoma State not even close; Iowa just missed; Stanford not close; Notre Dame not close; Michigan State barely missed)
2016 – 5/8 (Penn State barely missed; OU not even close)
2017 – 8/10 (OU not close; USC not very close)
2018 – 5/7 (OU had by far the worst defense of any team I looked at; Ohio State 48th in FEI)
2019 – 8/9 (Oklahoma not close)
TOTAL: 50/84 (59.5%)
Teams that appeared in a national championship game since 2010-2019 (in the case of this season all four playoff teams included) without a top 10 defense: 6
Teams that appeared in a national championship game since 2010-2019 without a top 20 defense: 4
4) What recent history tell us…
A few thoughts after staring at numbers for a very long time:
--- The true juggernauts – teams with top 10 ratings in both offense and defense – always ended up in the mix for the national championship with maybe one or two exceptions (2017 Penn State is one of them). Of course, that isn’t surprising. But even a team like this year’s LSU is elite in one area, and missed the cut, barely, in defense.
--- What being elite on both sides of the football does is create a rare gap at the top between the two or four awesome teams in the country, and then the next tier of contenders. While we’re seeing at least a couple of these types of teams each season, it’s not always a guarantee. And teams like Oklahoma continue to break through despite being far from complete.
--- I was surprised at how many teams achieved a high level of success without being “complete.” For example, Notre Dame made the 2013 national title game undefeated despite being above average on offense. Auburn won a national title in 2010 with a defense that ranked 44th in S&P+.
--- A team can play for it all without ranking in the top 20 of offense or defense, but it must be elite in one of those areas. There were a few examples of well-rounded teams that basically ranked around 25-35 in both offense and defense, but those teams weren’t realistically in the title picture. They won their leagues, though.
--- Elite QB play can help overcome being average or worse in defense. I know. Duh. But there were more than a couple examples.
--- If a team is capable of getting into the playoff, it needs to be in the top 10 of the overall rankings, and if it’s inside the top 20, chances are strong it either played for or won its league.
5) While watching the Big 12 Championship Game…
I couldn’t watch the Big 12 Championship Game without thinking of Marqez Bimage. Random? Not so much. As Baylor’s three-man defensive front continuously pressured and made Heisman finalist Jalen Hurts uncomfortable, I thought back to seeing Bimage wreck the Texas Tech offensive line on multiple occasions, which led to two questions: why didn’t Texas play Bimage more, and why could other teams in the Big 12 generate pressure with three-man fronts while Texas struggled?
This isn’t meant to pile on Todd Orlando, although I’m sure he’s doing fine. The way Texas used its defensive ends for pretty much the entire season is yet another reason why Texas needed to make a change at defensive coordinator. Frankly, it’s another example of Orlando’s maddening tendencies that put Texas in a position it shouldn’t have been in. Pick a non-Texas Tech game for Texas this season and watch its defensive line compared to Baylor’s in the Big 12 Championship Game. And it’s not about talent. It’s about development and perhaps more importantly, technique, scheme and usage.
6) Texas Basketball
After nine games, Texas has one area on offense and defense where it can really improve. Offensively, Texas must start getting to the free throw line at a higher rate. Texas ranks 348th nationally out of 353 teams in free throws attempted per field goal attempt. With the talent Texas has at point guard, it should be getting to the line more. The way Texas plays a five-out offense (look back at Steve Prohm’s Iowa State teams and their rates) wasn’t ever going to lead to a ton of free throw attempts, but if Texas is going to become a better offense, it needs to get out of the 300s in free throw rate.
On the plus side, Texas is assisting on 57.2% of its made field goals (60th nationally), is 45th in two-point field goal percentage, and currently has an eFG% of 51.5%, which would be the best percentage at Texas since the 2007-08 season. Now, imagine Texas actually making more open threes, or taking fewer perimeter jumpers and getting the ball into the paint more consistently. If Texas is going to be the offense it wants to be, it must start replacing some of those perimeter shots with free throw attempts and two-point field goals.
As for the defense, keeping teams off the offensive glass remains an issue, although it’s not as disastrous as it was to begin the season. Texas is allowing teams to grab 31.6% of their misses, which ranks 283rd nationally. Luke Yaklich wants that number to be 25% or less, so Texas has a lot of room for growth. Along with the rebounding, Yaklich is probably hammering home the amount of fouling Texas is doing; it’s not a bad rate, but it’s certainly not in line with what he wants.
Otherwise, it’s easy to see Yaklich’s imprint on the defense. Texas is No. 13 nationally in opposing teams’ three-pointers attempted per field goal attempt, is No. 49 in assist rate, is causing turnovers (28th nationally), and ranks respectively in eFG% defense.
7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
--- Fortunately for the College Football Playoff committee, the only tough decision it had to make was whether LSU or Ohio State should be No. 1. Thanks to domino after domino falling in Oklahoma’s favor, there was no other realistic option to put in the No. 4 spot after LSU kicked the crap out of Georgia. Strangely, Georgia keeps having issues being disinterested in big games.
As for LSU or Ohio State, I don’t think there was a wrong answer. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, they will have to play a Clemson team that in some ways is more complete than last year’s title team. Ohio State does have a problem with sacks on offense, and Clemson’s pass defense and defensive line are outstanding. Regardless, it should be a spectacular game. LSU and Oklahoma… not so much.
--- The Evil Empire never left, but it’s definitely back to being hated. Gerrit Cole agreed to a nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees last night. Obviously, it’s the largest contract – in years, average annual value, and total money – ever given to a pitcher. I told myself before he signed, he’d surpass Stephen Strasburg’s AAV and would eclipse $300 million total. Still, when the figure was reported last night it looked gigantic. Because it is.
Why can the Yankees do this? Well, besides being the Yankees, they can afford to do this because of how well they’ve scouted, drafted, developed, and traded in the last few years. Their roster is filled with impact players basically making nothing, like Gleyber Torres. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez still have two more arbitration years before hitting free agency; Luis Severino’s contract looks like a steal and players like Miguel Andujar and Domingo German have flashed as future stars in the past.
While other teams – including the likes of the freaking Red Sox and Cubs – are doing whatever they can, even if it means trading David Price, to stay under the luxury tax, the Yankees are afforded flexibility because of how well they’ve acquired or developed young, cheap, impact players, which brings me to my next point: this isn’t the same Major League Baseball anymore as it relates to the big market teams splashing money around without repercussion.
Think about how ridiculous this sounds: the Boston Red Sox might be unable to keep Mookie Betts, would trade him for the right price before he hits free agency, and are also open to the idea of trading Price but might have to attach significant money or a prospect to him. Why? Because if the Red Sox don’t stay under the luxury tax cap this season, it could cost them 90, maybe even as much as $100 million in the future as a repeat offender; the Red Sox could even go back over with far, far less penalty in 2020-21 if they chose to, but going over this year would cause a gigantic hit in the future. At some point, as filthy rich as these owners are and they have and make way more money than most realize, owners draw the line. I don’t blame them.
Teams that can get as close to possible to the luxury tax are still likely to be better positioned than teams that can’t; it gives those teams more of a margin for error unless they totally bomb a lot of deals. Hello, Arte Moreno. However, it’s not simply as easy as saying a team can go spend frivolously and not feel the negative impact on future rosters.
--- Biggest loser in the Cole sweepstakes? Not the Angels, although they absolutely must do something big to at least try to stop wasting prime Mike Trout. The Dodgers were the biggest loser.
The Dodgers have won their division seven straight times. They’ve won the National League multiple times. They have an excellent roster, and have proven able to scout, draft, and develop. The opportunities to keep winning the division and compete for a World Series are going to end at some point, and signing Cole would have put the Dodgers over the hump; it would have been more likely they won a World Series with him than not.
Maybe the Dodgers made a huge offer, and Cole preferred the Yankees. After all, the Yankees his favorite team growing up, and he was drafted by them before betting on himself by going to UCLA. But knowing Andrew Friedman’s history running the Rays and Dodgers – the largest free agent deal he’s handed out in LA was to A.J. Pollock for five years, $60 million – the odds are in favor of the Dodgers coming up short in the length of the deal, and perhaps the money.
Now, they’re reportedly shifting focus to Madison Bumgarner. That’s like going to look at a Porsche and then settling on a Ford.
--- The Angels signed Zack Cozart after a career-best year inflated by a career-high BABIP. Yesterday, they had to dump the remaining one year on his salary and needed to attach a recent first-round pick to the deal for the Giants to do it. While the Cozart deal is another example of failed free agent moves for the Angels, it was clearly a move to clear money and space for Anthony Rendon.
--- I understand why the Nationals signed Strasburg to a seven-year, $245 million deal. They’ve always placed significant value in starting pitching. Just look at how much money is committed to their rotation next season and in the future. All long-term deals are risks, and this is especially true for pitchers. In the case of Strasburg, it’s even riskier considering he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery, has only started more than 30 games twice in his career, and has only thrown more than 200 innings twice in his career.
Personally, I would have thrown the money at Rendon who is younger, less of a risk, and has been a better, more valuable player.
8) Anything and everything…
--- Christmas movies I always make sure to watch at least once this time of year: Christmas Vacation, Love Actually, Die Hard, Home Alone, Home Alone 2, A Charlie Brown Christmas. And I very much enjoy our yearly trip to Zach Theater to see A Christmas Carol.
--- Favorite Christmas beer? I’m behind on my yearly tasting. In the past, Shiner Cheer has tasted significantly different, at least to me, from year-to-year, although I've always enjoyed it; really like Sailing Santa from St. Arnold’s; not that big of a fan of Anchor Steam’s version or Karbach’s Yule Shoot Your Eye Out.
---
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9) This week’s read… is from NJ.com: The Day That Changed Everything
And this week’s featured art from the WYLD GALLERY includes two awesome pieces that can be purchased at the gallery website:
Derek No-Sun Brown’s version of a secret moonlight meeting includes a boom box, in case the meeting turns out to be dull. Derek grew up on the Fort Hall Indian Reservation in Idaho and the Boise Fort Indian Reservation in Minnesota. He is a graduate of the Institute of American Indian Arts in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Derek lives in Santa Fe.
A boom box… how cool is that? Would look awesome near a record player or in a game room.
DIRECT LINK SO YOU CAN GO BUY IT
DIRECT LINK
Again, explore WYLD.GALLERY and be the hit of your Christmas with a truly unique gift. You’ll love what you see. Use the coupon code OrangeBloods19 to receive 10% off, and take advantage of many great pieces being available for under $400.
Very excited to say this week’s column is brought to you by WYLD GALLERY:
VISIT WYLD.GALLERY AND EXPLORE AND SHOP UNIQUE NATIVE AMERICAN ART
WYLD GALLERY is a downtown Austin gallery featuring traditional and contemporary fine art by Native American Artists.
The gallery is the part-time retirement gig for Ray Donley, an Austin attorney who has been a lurker on OB since 2002. Ray has been collecting Native American art since the 1980s. He has made friends with a number of Oklahoma Native American Artists, and enjoys ribbing them for their fanatical support of a football team that honors the land thieves who took their land.
Using your Orangebloods coupon, you’ll find many affordable options including some below $200. That’s an outstanding deal, especially during the holiday shopping season.
Contemporary Native American paintings are bold, bright, and never boring. And they will look great on the walls of your office or home. Many of the artists in the gallery have pieces in the permanent collections of museums, including the Smithsonian.
Please check out these unique, vibrant paintings at www.WYLD.GALLERY. Treat yourself to some cool art because everyone has that one wall in their home that could use some more character. And treat yourself to 10% off any online purchase using the coupon code OrangeBloods19.
This week’s column:
1) How far away is Texas?
The TLDR version: not far.
Whether you enjoy your glass half full or see it as half empty, the Longhorns aren’t far away from being the team you want them to be. Seriously, they’re not. Well, at least according to the statistics and recent history.
Perhaps that makes the 2019 season even more infuriating for Texas fans. They know the Big 12 was there for the taking, and they know Texas wasted a prime opportunity. They know what they often saw on Saturdays was a team that needed better direction, developing, planning, and coaching, which was then supported by Tom Herman’s decision to hire two new coordinators.
But what they also know is this isn’t a rebuild sponsored by Charlie Strong and Fathead. Under Strong, Texas finished 53rd, 68th, and 49th in F/+ overall rankings. Under Herman, Texas has finished 41st, 25th, and is currently 28th. Obviously, the 28th ranking this season immediately grabs attention and supports many of the questions and recent coaching staff moves. What’s also obvious is Texas has removed itself from the pit of misery and is on the fringe of breaking through. That is, of course, contingent upon Herman nailing these two coordinator hires, building a better coaching staff, and maximizing the program.
At Texas, there are no rewards for being close. No one rushes to add four numbers to the side of the stadium for almost being good or some newly discovered newspaper clipping from 1919. That said, history has shown that Texas is a couple of good coordinator hires away from competing at the highest level.
I took a look back at each team since 2010 that won its conference and/or played in a top bowl with two losses or fewer at the end of the regular season. Obviously, teams that played for a national championship are included. If a team ended the regular season with three losses, it wasn’t in the College Football Playoff picture, and definitely wasn’t the best team in its conference. The bar for Texas is higher. As fun as the Sugar Bowl win last season was for Texas and its fans, it was supposed to be a big step in the right direction and not a final destination. Texas needs to be where these teams were or currently are, and the gap for Texas isn't that large.
Let’s take a look at those teams offensively and defensively:
2) CFB title contenders on offense…
Texas on offense this season:
FEI - 17
S&P+ - 11
Teams with a top 10 offense in either FEI or S&P+
2010 – 7/8 (Virginia Tech missed by one spot)
2011 – 6/8 (LSU missed but was inside top 20)
2012 – 3/7
2013 – 6/9
2014 – 7/8 (TCU at No. 17)
2015 – 4/10
2016 – 3/8
2017 – 5/10 (Alabama barely missed; USC missed by three spots)
2018 – 5/7
2019 – 4/9
TOTAL: 50/84 (59.5%)
Teams with a top 20 offense in both FEI or S&P+
2010 – 8/8
2011 – 7/8 (Virginia Tech was well outside)
2012 – 3/7 (Notre Dame outside; Florida well outside; FSU barely missed; Stanford well outside)
2013 – 5/9 (Clemson missed by three spots; Michigan State was way outside; Stanford barely missed)
2014 – 8/8
2015 – 4/10 (Alabama missed by four spots; Oklahoma State missed by four spots; Iowa not even close; Ohio State missed by two spots; Michigan State at No. 30; FSU just missed)
2016 – 4/8 (Ohio State missed by about 10 spots; Michigan barely missed; Penn State around 25-30)
2017 – 7/10 (Clemson missed by one spot; Miami not very close)
2018 – 5/7 (Notre Dame missed by about 10 spots; Michigan missed by five spots)
2019 – 5/9 (Georgia missed by about 15 spots; Baylor missed by about 20 spots; Florida missed by two spots; Penn State missed by three spots)
TOTAL: 56/84 (66.7%)
Teams that appeared in a national championship game (in the case of this season all four playoff teams included) since 2010-2019 without a top 10 offense: 5
Teams that appeared in a national championship game since 2010-2019 without a top 20 offense: 2
3) CFB title contenders on defense…
Texas on defense this season:
FEI - 60
S&P+ - 77
Teams with a top 10 defense in either FEI or S&P+
2010 – 5/8
2011 – 3/8
2012 – 5/7 (Oregon missed by a spot)
2013 – 4/9 (Clemson barely missed)
2014 – 2/8
2015 – 4/10
2016 – 4/8
2017 – 6/10 (Washington missed by four spots)
2018 – 5/7
2019 – 6/9 (Oregon missed by one spot; LSU missed by five spots)
TOTAL: 44/84 (52.4%)
Teams with a top 20 defense in both FEI or S&P+
2010 – 5/8 (Auburn missed by about 10 spots; Arkansas barely missed; Virginia Tech missed by about 10 spots; Wisconsin not close)
2011 – 2/8 (Michigan missed by a spot; Virginia Tech missed by about 10 spots; Stanford not close; Oklahoma State just missed; Oregon just missed)
2012 – 6/7 (Kansas State outside)
2013 – 5/9 (Auburn’s best ranking was No. 28; Ohio State well outside; OU barely missed; Baylor barely missed)
2014 – 2/8 (Oregon was around 40; Ohio State missed by four spots; Florida State around 40; Michigan State missed by nine; Baylor missed; Mississippi State at No. 26)
2015 – 4/10 (Oklahoma State not even close; Iowa just missed; Stanford not close; Notre Dame not close; Michigan State barely missed)
2016 – 5/8 (Penn State barely missed; OU not even close)
2017 – 8/10 (OU not close; USC not very close)
2018 – 5/7 (OU had by far the worst defense of any team I looked at; Ohio State 48th in FEI)
2019 – 8/9 (Oklahoma not close)
TOTAL: 50/84 (59.5%)
Teams that appeared in a national championship game since 2010-2019 (in the case of this season all four playoff teams included) without a top 10 defense: 6
Teams that appeared in a national championship game since 2010-2019 without a top 20 defense: 4
4) What recent history tell us…
A few thoughts after staring at numbers for a very long time:
--- The true juggernauts – teams with top 10 ratings in both offense and defense – always ended up in the mix for the national championship with maybe one or two exceptions (2017 Penn State is one of them). Of course, that isn’t surprising. But even a team like this year’s LSU is elite in one area, and missed the cut, barely, in defense.
--- What being elite on both sides of the football does is create a rare gap at the top between the two or four awesome teams in the country, and then the next tier of contenders. While we’re seeing at least a couple of these types of teams each season, it’s not always a guarantee. And teams like Oklahoma continue to break through despite being far from complete.
--- I was surprised at how many teams achieved a high level of success without being “complete.” For example, Notre Dame made the 2013 national title game undefeated despite being above average on offense. Auburn won a national title in 2010 with a defense that ranked 44th in S&P+.
--- A team can play for it all without ranking in the top 20 of offense or defense, but it must be elite in one of those areas. There were a few examples of well-rounded teams that basically ranked around 25-35 in both offense and defense, but those teams weren’t realistically in the title picture. They won their leagues, though.
--- Elite QB play can help overcome being average or worse in defense. I know. Duh. But there were more than a couple examples.
--- If a team is capable of getting into the playoff, it needs to be in the top 10 of the overall rankings, and if it’s inside the top 20, chances are strong it either played for or won its league.
5) While watching the Big 12 Championship Game…
I couldn’t watch the Big 12 Championship Game without thinking of Marqez Bimage. Random? Not so much. As Baylor’s three-man defensive front continuously pressured and made Heisman finalist Jalen Hurts uncomfortable, I thought back to seeing Bimage wreck the Texas Tech offensive line on multiple occasions, which led to two questions: why didn’t Texas play Bimage more, and why could other teams in the Big 12 generate pressure with three-man fronts while Texas struggled?
This isn’t meant to pile on Todd Orlando, although I’m sure he’s doing fine. The way Texas used its defensive ends for pretty much the entire season is yet another reason why Texas needed to make a change at defensive coordinator. Frankly, it’s another example of Orlando’s maddening tendencies that put Texas in a position it shouldn’t have been in. Pick a non-Texas Tech game for Texas this season and watch its defensive line compared to Baylor’s in the Big 12 Championship Game. And it’s not about talent. It’s about development and perhaps more importantly, technique, scheme and usage.
6) Texas Basketball
After nine games, Texas has one area on offense and defense where it can really improve. Offensively, Texas must start getting to the free throw line at a higher rate. Texas ranks 348th nationally out of 353 teams in free throws attempted per field goal attempt. With the talent Texas has at point guard, it should be getting to the line more. The way Texas plays a five-out offense (look back at Steve Prohm’s Iowa State teams and their rates) wasn’t ever going to lead to a ton of free throw attempts, but if Texas is going to become a better offense, it needs to get out of the 300s in free throw rate.
On the plus side, Texas is assisting on 57.2% of its made field goals (60th nationally), is 45th in two-point field goal percentage, and currently has an eFG% of 51.5%, which would be the best percentage at Texas since the 2007-08 season. Now, imagine Texas actually making more open threes, or taking fewer perimeter jumpers and getting the ball into the paint more consistently. If Texas is going to be the offense it wants to be, it must start replacing some of those perimeter shots with free throw attempts and two-point field goals.
As for the defense, keeping teams off the offensive glass remains an issue, although it’s not as disastrous as it was to begin the season. Texas is allowing teams to grab 31.6% of their misses, which ranks 283rd nationally. Luke Yaklich wants that number to be 25% or less, so Texas has a lot of room for growth. Along with the rebounding, Yaklich is probably hammering home the amount of fouling Texas is doing; it’s not a bad rate, but it’s certainly not in line with what he wants.
Otherwise, it’s easy to see Yaklich’s imprint on the defense. Texas is No. 13 nationally in opposing teams’ three-pointers attempted per field goal attempt, is No. 49 in assist rate, is causing turnovers (28th nationally), and ranks respectively in eFG% defense.
7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
--- Fortunately for the College Football Playoff committee, the only tough decision it had to make was whether LSU or Ohio State should be No. 1. Thanks to domino after domino falling in Oklahoma’s favor, there was no other realistic option to put in the No. 4 spot after LSU kicked the crap out of Georgia. Strangely, Georgia keeps having issues being disinterested in big games.
As for LSU or Ohio State, I don’t think there was a wrong answer. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, they will have to play a Clemson team that in some ways is more complete than last year’s title team. Ohio State does have a problem with sacks on offense, and Clemson’s pass defense and defensive line are outstanding. Regardless, it should be a spectacular game. LSU and Oklahoma… not so much.
--- The Evil Empire never left, but it’s definitely back to being hated. Gerrit Cole agreed to a nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees last night. Obviously, it’s the largest contract – in years, average annual value, and total money – ever given to a pitcher. I told myself before he signed, he’d surpass Stephen Strasburg’s AAV and would eclipse $300 million total. Still, when the figure was reported last night it looked gigantic. Because it is.
Why can the Yankees do this? Well, besides being the Yankees, they can afford to do this because of how well they’ve scouted, drafted, developed, and traded in the last few years. Their roster is filled with impact players basically making nothing, like Gleyber Torres. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez still have two more arbitration years before hitting free agency; Luis Severino’s contract looks like a steal and players like Miguel Andujar and Domingo German have flashed as future stars in the past.
While other teams – including the likes of the freaking Red Sox and Cubs – are doing whatever they can, even if it means trading David Price, to stay under the luxury tax, the Yankees are afforded flexibility because of how well they’ve acquired or developed young, cheap, impact players, which brings me to my next point: this isn’t the same Major League Baseball anymore as it relates to the big market teams splashing money around without repercussion.
Think about how ridiculous this sounds: the Boston Red Sox might be unable to keep Mookie Betts, would trade him for the right price before he hits free agency, and are also open to the idea of trading Price but might have to attach significant money or a prospect to him. Why? Because if the Red Sox don’t stay under the luxury tax cap this season, it could cost them 90, maybe even as much as $100 million in the future as a repeat offender; the Red Sox could even go back over with far, far less penalty in 2020-21 if they chose to, but going over this year would cause a gigantic hit in the future. At some point, as filthy rich as these owners are and they have and make way more money than most realize, owners draw the line. I don’t blame them.
Teams that can get as close to possible to the luxury tax are still likely to be better positioned than teams that can’t; it gives those teams more of a margin for error unless they totally bomb a lot of deals. Hello, Arte Moreno. However, it’s not simply as easy as saying a team can go spend frivolously and not feel the negative impact on future rosters.
--- Biggest loser in the Cole sweepstakes? Not the Angels, although they absolutely must do something big to at least try to stop wasting prime Mike Trout. The Dodgers were the biggest loser.
The Dodgers have won their division seven straight times. They’ve won the National League multiple times. They have an excellent roster, and have proven able to scout, draft, and develop. The opportunities to keep winning the division and compete for a World Series are going to end at some point, and signing Cole would have put the Dodgers over the hump; it would have been more likely they won a World Series with him than not.
Maybe the Dodgers made a huge offer, and Cole preferred the Yankees. After all, the Yankees his favorite team growing up, and he was drafted by them before betting on himself by going to UCLA. But knowing Andrew Friedman’s history running the Rays and Dodgers – the largest free agent deal he’s handed out in LA was to A.J. Pollock for five years, $60 million – the odds are in favor of the Dodgers coming up short in the length of the deal, and perhaps the money.
Now, they’re reportedly shifting focus to Madison Bumgarner. That’s like going to look at a Porsche and then settling on a Ford.
--- The Angels signed Zack Cozart after a career-best year inflated by a career-high BABIP. Yesterday, they had to dump the remaining one year on his salary and needed to attach a recent first-round pick to the deal for the Giants to do it. While the Cozart deal is another example of failed free agent moves for the Angels, it was clearly a move to clear money and space for Anthony Rendon.
--- I understand why the Nationals signed Strasburg to a seven-year, $245 million deal. They’ve always placed significant value in starting pitching. Just look at how much money is committed to their rotation next season and in the future. All long-term deals are risks, and this is especially true for pitchers. In the case of Strasburg, it’s even riskier considering he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery, has only started more than 30 games twice in his career, and has only thrown more than 200 innings twice in his career.
Personally, I would have thrown the money at Rendon who is younger, less of a risk, and has been a better, more valuable player.
8) Anything and everything…
--- Christmas movies I always make sure to watch at least once this time of year: Christmas Vacation, Love Actually, Die Hard, Home Alone, Home Alone 2, A Charlie Brown Christmas. And I very much enjoy our yearly trip to Zach Theater to see A Christmas Carol.
--- Favorite Christmas beer? I’m behind on my yearly tasting. In the past, Shiner Cheer has tasted significantly different, at least to me, from year-to-year, although I've always enjoyed it; really like Sailing Santa from St. Arnold’s; not that big of a fan of Anchor Steam’s version or Karbach’s Yule Shoot Your Eye Out.
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9) This week’s read… is from NJ.com: The Day That Changed Everything
And this week’s featured art from the WYLD GALLERY includes two awesome pieces that can be purchased at the gallery website:
Derek No-Sun Brown’s version of a secret moonlight meeting includes a boom box, in case the meeting turns out to be dull. Derek grew up on the Fort Hall Indian Reservation in Idaho and the Boise Fort Indian Reservation in Minnesota. He is a graduate of the Institute of American Indian Arts in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Derek lives in Santa Fe.
A boom box… how cool is that? Would look awesome near a record player or in a game room.
DIRECT LINK SO YOU CAN GO BUY IT
DIRECT LINK
Again, explore WYLD.GALLERY and be the hit of your Christmas with a truly unique gift. You’ll love what you see. Use the coupon code OrangeBloods19 to receive 10% off, and take advantage of many great pieces being available for under $400.
