Well, we have to pick ourselves up off the mat and get ready for Oklahoma St. This weekend may actually be the cornerstone to the how the narrative of our season plays out. With the amount of recruits in town this weekend, and with the 5-0 Cowboys in town, we will either head into the bye week regaining some momentum or we will be where aggy was after losing to Mississippi St. at home but without a chance of having an Alabama game to turnaround negative momentum.
For the TL/DR crowd- Oklahoma St. is very similar to TCU to my eyes, except they are stronger on defense than TCU and less potent than TCU on offense. Oklahoma St. has the best defense I have seen in the conference, and their offense is getting healthier which has helped them the past few weeks. The cowboys struggled with Missouri State and Tulsa to start the season, squeaked out a win by one at Boise St, dominated a Skylar Thompson-less Kansas State, and then leaned on their defense to beat an undefeated Baylor. They haven’t played an offense like ours yet, but their defense is real. They lost their #1 RB L. Brown against Tulsa. Played Boise without him and their best WR and pieced together enough offense. Spencer Sanders basically has played one great game against KSU, and three pretty poor performances, including throwing 3 INTs against Baylor. What OSU offense shows up? Will it matter with our defense? Their defense will be very stout and just as good as the Arkansas defense and maybe better.
Onto the film.
OKST Offense.
Spencer Sanders- Max Duggan 2.0. Mobile, will be used in the run game, but is a one read guy. KSU dropped into predictable zone coverages and Sanders made easy reads, and great throws. 22/34 344 2 TDs 0 INTs. Baylor brought more pressure, also generated decent 4 man pass rush (same with Boise, but OK St was playing without their top 2 or 3 receivers that game) and his stats against Baylor were 13/23 182 1 TD, 3INTs. Bottom line is you can’t give him easy reads, have to show one thing, do another, and you have to get pressure, not necessarily sacks, but just can’t let him sit and look down T. Martin.
Jaylen Warren RB- Transfer from Utah St. Has stepped up big since getting the starting job against Boise St. One cut back with some power and deceptive speed. Great for their outside zone scheme, will find a gap and plow through. Strong upper body, breaks tackles when DBs go high, not a ton of wiggle, but really good vision. Won’t juke you, would rather just bowl into you and get an extra 2-3 falling forward. After what Brooks did to us on the counter last week, I think he is going to be the key to stopping their offense. If he gets going, really opens up Sanders run game off the read/option. Very good hands and they run screens very well with him.
Tay Martin #1- Their go to receiver. Really the only WR on their team that I feel threatened by. Not as good as what they have had in the past like Dez Bryant or Tylan Wallace, but he is fast, has good hands and can definitely house it on you. Sanders first read in almost all passing situations.
TE/Hbacks- run 11 personnel the most, TEs aren’t much of a receiving threat, but both are solid blockers. They do run a decent amount of 12 personnel and number 90 the 2nd TE is basically just another lineman.
OL- Plus run blocking, pass blocking can be suspect. RT very slow footed and struggled one on one vs speed rush of Baylor. Also saw 2 or three instances where teams would line 6 up on the line, drop 2 of those and bring 2 right up the A gaps, and OKST had miscommunication and let free rushers go straight through. Think Overshown from 3rd down on OU’s opening drive.
OKST tendencies- best personnel grouping is 11 personnel. Love to run outside zone. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see more 12 personnel and really test our run defense. Their WRs outside of Martin are average, but capable.
They use a lot of motion to try to get your eyes moving one way while the play moves the other.
Here are a few of their bread and butter plays out of 11 personnel
Outside zone long TD
Outside zone with H back cracking back
Well run screen
Keys for our defense-
1. Again the number 1 thing I am looking for is stopping the run. Sanders is not built to pick you apart, and makes really bad decisions when forced to make tough throws. Clean pockets, off of play action though will allow him to be at great passer. If we don’t stop the run, I think it will be a looooooong 2 weeks around here. Jacoby Jones going down hurts, he may not be Ossai but he has been at least serviceable, so it will be interesting to see if the DL steps up. I hope we play a lot more man, keep our safeties closer to the line of scrimmage and really challenge Sanders to beat us with his arm.
2. Thompson on Martin- Thompson did great against Ezukanma for Tech, I think we should try to get that matchup as much as possible. Jamison should be able to handle their other WR, and their TEs if they do catch it, aren’t big threats. Take Martin out with Thompson and a little safety help at times.
3. I know stop the run was point #1, but I want a plan for Sanders legs both in the run game and off the scramble drill.
4. More man, less zone, but do hope since we can’t organically create a pass rush we get a lot of zone blitzing going. Again, other teams got home with 4 when zone blitzing. Also on 3rd and 10 or longer, I am fine with bringing 3 and spying. Ok St. on almost every 3rd and long, used motion and tried to spread you out and then run QB draws/counter plays. They obviously don’t trust Sanders in those situations and won’t risk the turnover if they don’t have to.
5. Limit the explosives. Against OU, heard a stat that they ran approx 72 plays for 320 yards ( approx 4.5 yards per play) and had their 7 other plays go for approx 340 yards (nearly 50 yards a play). I rewatched the OU game. The defense played really really well at times, but inexplicably is just having ultimate brain fart moments at times. We aren’t going to completely stop anybody, but we can’t let them get it all at once.
6. Red zone defense- Was actually pretty good against OU as we forced several field goals. OK. St. will def be run first in the red zone with a lot of different options with Sanders back there.
Onto the Oklahoma St. Defense-
30,000 view- I believe this is the best defense we have played. They are the most sure tackling team I have seen, Their DL is strong and constantly gets in the backfield. They have the best MLB in the league, and their corners are pretty solid in man coverage. Other than one DL/OLB Collin Oliver who is a freshman (and good), their starting lineup are all JRs and SRs, which shows in that they really don’t beat themselves too often and have a lot of experience.
Malcom Rodriguez #20- Stud ILB, PFF has him graded as the best ILB in the conference and 3rd highest overall defensive player. Tackling machine. Will be interesting to see him go against Bijan.
Israel Antwine #95- Great DT. I feel like almost every play I see a guard or center getting knocked into the backfield. Will be a tough match for Majors.
Cornerbacks/Safeties- Very solid tacklers, pretty physical when in man, but were beat on some deep balls against Baylor. Better throws or more explosive WRs (aka Worthy) could have turned 30-40 yard gains into TDs
Keys for our Offense
1. Can we run the ball- It was a tale of 2 halves against OU as far as the run game. OSU’s DL is not quite as quick as Oklahoma’s but they play with great pad level and are very disruptive. Again in all three games I watched running lanes were hard to come by, and Rodriguez cleaned up anyhting that got through. Here are the rushing totals for their opponents in the last 3 games-
Boise St- 35 att 61 yards
KSU- 25 attempts for 62 yards
Baylor- 29 attempts for 107 yards
2. Hit deep shots to take some pressure off the run game-
3. Have to find a third option- Worthy and Bijan will be heavily game planned for, with Whittington out, who moves the chains for us?
4. Attack edges with fly sweeps- Need more Keilan Robinson. This defense is great, but I feel like if they are weak in any one area it is their speed.
5. Pass protect against 4. They are going to try to only rush 4. They don’t stunt a ton, they basically just bull rush and collapse the pocket.
6. Have some Thompson designed runs. Think we can pick up some key 1st downs with Thompson’s legs. Designed runs.
Special teams- We should have a huge edge. Their FG kicker is very bad from outside 40 yards. They gave up a KR to Kansas State. Could be the difference in this game is generating a big play or two on special teams.
What happens? Remember we won this game last year in Stillwater although we were out gained 530 to 287. We came up with three fumbles and an interception, and Ossai went beastmode to seal the game. Gundy has won 5 out of his last 6 times in Austin, something has got to give.
Strength vs Strength. TX offense vs OSU defense. I think the key will be who has their weaker side step up and play better. To me, at home, with our crowd, I feel like our defense steps up, forces some turnovers and we win a close one. We are hurting, coming off 2 straight physical games, they have had a bye week to rest up and get their offense ready.
I’m going Texas 38 Oklahoma St 28 (spread UT -5)
Previous picks: (2-1 Straight up, 2-1 ATS)
Texas 42- Tech 23 (spread was Texas -8 I believe, actual final was 70-35)
Texas 45 TCU 34 (spread was Texas -4, actual final Texas 32-27)
Texas 27 OU 24 not even a good 1st half prediction (Spread OU-4, actual final score OU 55-48)
For the TL/DR crowd- Oklahoma St. is very similar to TCU to my eyes, except they are stronger on defense than TCU and less potent than TCU on offense. Oklahoma St. has the best defense I have seen in the conference, and their offense is getting healthier which has helped them the past few weeks. The cowboys struggled with Missouri State and Tulsa to start the season, squeaked out a win by one at Boise St, dominated a Skylar Thompson-less Kansas State, and then leaned on their defense to beat an undefeated Baylor. They haven’t played an offense like ours yet, but their defense is real. They lost their #1 RB L. Brown against Tulsa. Played Boise without him and their best WR and pieced together enough offense. Spencer Sanders basically has played one great game against KSU, and three pretty poor performances, including throwing 3 INTs against Baylor. What OSU offense shows up? Will it matter with our defense? Their defense will be very stout and just as good as the Arkansas defense and maybe better.
Onto the film.
OKST Offense.
Spencer Sanders- Max Duggan 2.0. Mobile, will be used in the run game, but is a one read guy. KSU dropped into predictable zone coverages and Sanders made easy reads, and great throws. 22/34 344 2 TDs 0 INTs. Baylor brought more pressure, also generated decent 4 man pass rush (same with Boise, but OK St was playing without their top 2 or 3 receivers that game) and his stats against Baylor were 13/23 182 1 TD, 3INTs. Bottom line is you can’t give him easy reads, have to show one thing, do another, and you have to get pressure, not necessarily sacks, but just can’t let him sit and look down T. Martin.
Jaylen Warren RB- Transfer from Utah St. Has stepped up big since getting the starting job against Boise St. One cut back with some power and deceptive speed. Great for their outside zone scheme, will find a gap and plow through. Strong upper body, breaks tackles when DBs go high, not a ton of wiggle, but really good vision. Won’t juke you, would rather just bowl into you and get an extra 2-3 falling forward. After what Brooks did to us on the counter last week, I think he is going to be the key to stopping their offense. If he gets going, really opens up Sanders run game off the read/option. Very good hands and they run screens very well with him.
Tay Martin #1- Their go to receiver. Really the only WR on their team that I feel threatened by. Not as good as what they have had in the past like Dez Bryant or Tylan Wallace, but he is fast, has good hands and can definitely house it on you. Sanders first read in almost all passing situations.
TE/Hbacks- run 11 personnel the most, TEs aren’t much of a receiving threat, but both are solid blockers. They do run a decent amount of 12 personnel and number 90 the 2nd TE is basically just another lineman.
OL- Plus run blocking, pass blocking can be suspect. RT very slow footed and struggled one on one vs speed rush of Baylor. Also saw 2 or three instances where teams would line 6 up on the line, drop 2 of those and bring 2 right up the A gaps, and OKST had miscommunication and let free rushers go straight through. Think Overshown from 3rd down on OU’s opening drive.
OKST tendencies- best personnel grouping is 11 personnel. Love to run outside zone. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see more 12 personnel and really test our run defense. Their WRs outside of Martin are average, but capable.
They use a lot of motion to try to get your eyes moving one way while the play moves the other.
Here are a few of their bread and butter plays out of 11 personnel
Outside zone long TD
Outside zone with H back cracking back
Well run screen
Keys for our defense-
1. Again the number 1 thing I am looking for is stopping the run. Sanders is not built to pick you apart, and makes really bad decisions when forced to make tough throws. Clean pockets, off of play action though will allow him to be at great passer. If we don’t stop the run, I think it will be a looooooong 2 weeks around here. Jacoby Jones going down hurts, he may not be Ossai but he has been at least serviceable, so it will be interesting to see if the DL steps up. I hope we play a lot more man, keep our safeties closer to the line of scrimmage and really challenge Sanders to beat us with his arm.
2. Thompson on Martin- Thompson did great against Ezukanma for Tech, I think we should try to get that matchup as much as possible. Jamison should be able to handle their other WR, and their TEs if they do catch it, aren’t big threats. Take Martin out with Thompson and a little safety help at times.
3. I know stop the run was point #1, but I want a plan for Sanders legs both in the run game and off the scramble drill.
4. More man, less zone, but do hope since we can’t organically create a pass rush we get a lot of zone blitzing going. Again, other teams got home with 4 when zone blitzing. Also on 3rd and 10 or longer, I am fine with bringing 3 and spying. Ok St. on almost every 3rd and long, used motion and tried to spread you out and then run QB draws/counter plays. They obviously don’t trust Sanders in those situations and won’t risk the turnover if they don’t have to.
5. Limit the explosives. Against OU, heard a stat that they ran approx 72 plays for 320 yards ( approx 4.5 yards per play) and had their 7 other plays go for approx 340 yards (nearly 50 yards a play). I rewatched the OU game. The defense played really really well at times, but inexplicably is just having ultimate brain fart moments at times. We aren’t going to completely stop anybody, but we can’t let them get it all at once.
6. Red zone defense- Was actually pretty good against OU as we forced several field goals. OK. St. will def be run first in the red zone with a lot of different options with Sanders back there.
Onto the Oklahoma St. Defense-
30,000 view- I believe this is the best defense we have played. They are the most sure tackling team I have seen, Their DL is strong and constantly gets in the backfield. They have the best MLB in the league, and their corners are pretty solid in man coverage. Other than one DL/OLB Collin Oliver who is a freshman (and good), their starting lineup are all JRs and SRs, which shows in that they really don’t beat themselves too often and have a lot of experience.
Malcom Rodriguez #20- Stud ILB, PFF has him graded as the best ILB in the conference and 3rd highest overall defensive player. Tackling machine. Will be interesting to see him go against Bijan.
Israel Antwine #95- Great DT. I feel like almost every play I see a guard or center getting knocked into the backfield. Will be a tough match for Majors.
Cornerbacks/Safeties- Very solid tacklers, pretty physical when in man, but were beat on some deep balls against Baylor. Better throws or more explosive WRs (aka Worthy) could have turned 30-40 yard gains into TDs
Keys for our Offense
1. Can we run the ball- It was a tale of 2 halves against OU as far as the run game. OSU’s DL is not quite as quick as Oklahoma’s but they play with great pad level and are very disruptive. Again in all three games I watched running lanes were hard to come by, and Rodriguez cleaned up anyhting that got through. Here are the rushing totals for their opponents in the last 3 games-
Boise St- 35 att 61 yards
KSU- 25 attempts for 62 yards
Baylor- 29 attempts for 107 yards
2. Hit deep shots to take some pressure off the run game-
3. Have to find a third option- Worthy and Bijan will be heavily game planned for, with Whittington out, who moves the chains for us?
4. Attack edges with fly sweeps- Need more Keilan Robinson. This defense is great, but I feel like if they are weak in any one area it is their speed.
5. Pass protect against 4. They are going to try to only rush 4. They don’t stunt a ton, they basically just bull rush and collapse the pocket.
6. Have some Thompson designed runs. Think we can pick up some key 1st downs with Thompson’s legs. Designed runs.
Special teams- We should have a huge edge. Their FG kicker is very bad from outside 40 yards. They gave up a KR to Kansas State. Could be the difference in this game is generating a big play or two on special teams.
What happens? Remember we won this game last year in Stillwater although we were out gained 530 to 287. We came up with three fumbles and an interception, and Ossai went beastmode to seal the game. Gundy has won 5 out of his last 6 times in Austin, something has got to give.
Strength vs Strength. TX offense vs OSU defense. I think the key will be who has their weaker side step up and play better. To me, at home, with our crowd, I feel like our defense steps up, forces some turnovers and we win a close one. We are hurting, coming off 2 straight physical games, they have had a bye week to rest up and get their offense ready.
I’m going Texas 38 Oklahoma St 28 (spread UT -5)
Previous picks: (2-1 Straight up, 2-1 ATS)
Texas 42- Tech 23 (spread was Texas -8 I believe, actual final was 70-35)
Texas 45 TCU 34 (spread was Texas -4, actual final Texas 32-27)
Texas 27 OU 24 not even a good 1st half prediction (Spread OU-4, actual final score OU 55-48)
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