Are you a displaced corporate executive or wanting to put your career in your own hands? Or are you an experienced entrepreneur wanting to diversify? Well, Andy Luedecke can help! Andy is a long time Orangebloods member, diehard Longhorn and franchise veteran, having owned multiple franchises and businesses. Using his expertise, he helps others find their American Dream through a very thorough and FREE consultation process. Call Andy, put your life and career in your own hands. 100% free, so what do you have to lose?!!
Find Your Perfect Franchise at MyPerfectFranchise.Net
Orangebloods Owned! Contact Andy Luedecke (aka @widespread panic) anytime at:
aluedecke@myperfectfranchise.net
(404) 973-9901
www.myperfectfranchise.net
1) Austin Peay plays Central Arkansas this weekend
Never have I been more excited for a one-off FCS football matchup.
Clearly, the game represents a return to some bit of normalcy and our great fall tradition of playing, watching and being around the game of football. When I say "being around" the game, it is to say that I'm happy just to drive past a football field where practice is happening. Happy to hear whistles (even if they are electronic ones that you press a button to initiate rather than ones you blow air and its associated droplets into) and smell freshly mowed grass. I'm happy just to have it on TV and hear the sounds of it -- the bumper music coming out of commercials and the announcers doing network reads.
Now, this weekend, we'll be missing the sounds of the bands and the sights of the cheerleaders who will not be making the trip to the neutral-site 2020 Guardian Credit Union FCS Kickoff at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, due to COVID protocols. At least we'll definitely hear the sounds of the crowd and the fans. The game will take place in front of a sold-out 25% stadium capacity. It's going to be different, like much in our lives has been different since March. We're going to get back to normal, though, and, at least for me, having football back in any form is a major step in that direction. We've made it back to football season. What a long, strange trip it's been in this year of our Lord 2020.
2) Looks like I need to update the depth chart (Vernon Broughton at DE)
Not a huge update, but it looks like I'll be having to move Vernon Broughton on the projected depth chart from "in the mix" to contribute, along with fellow freshman Alfred Collins, at the three-technique to competition at the SDE behind Moro Ojomo. Sort of like Ojomo, Broughton feels like a little bit of a jumbo SDE type, but maybe that is what new DC Chris Ash is looking for out of that position.
You have to love the way he dips the shoulder here and converts as backup LT Reese Moore puts on just a miserable rep leaving him overextended and vulnerable. Texas really needs to develop depth at the LT with Sam Cosmi set to leave after this season, but that is another story altogether. I think that Jacoby Jones will be in the mix to be there as well. In fact, it's hard to tell whether this a second-team or third-team rep from the defense. T'Vondre Sweat is involved who seems like he's basically the No.2 nose tackle behind Keondre Coburn and we know that Collins and Broughton have been mixing in with the twos, but the LBs here: a walk-on at the jack and Jalen Hullaby and Marcus Tillman Jr. sort of feel like more of a third-team grouping.
Throw in the fact that BJ Foster is also in with this group, and it feels like the defensive staff is running guys in and out of different groupings to see who looks best together in different combos. The bottom line it is great to see and hear about players like Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton making plays, because there are no two more important pieces to the future of the Texas defense on the current roster.
3) Fantasy tips for your draft this weekend
DO NOT READ IF DRAFTING IN ONE OF MY LEAGUES
THAT MEANS YOU ANWAR! AND DUSTIN!
AND BILL!
AND KETCH!!!!!
- If you'd like to draft exactly as I would draft, check out the RosterWatch Cheat Sheet which is my own personal tool/invention that has been successful in helping tens of thousands of players navigate their drafts with expert-quality success over the years.
Aside from that ...
- Make sure you aren't drafting for floor late in your drafts. Many players taken after the 6th round or so in fantasy drafts will end up being dropped anyway. Shoot for the fences with high-upside players in this range. Think Will Fuller and Marquise Brown. Guys who worry you, but who you know have tremendous upside. Rookies like Henry Ruggs and CeeDee Lamb. Young dart-throws with dynamic athleticism like Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson and Cam Akers ... or players who've been epic busts before but look to be in vastly improved situations like Ronald Jones. You get the drift. You're not going to win a fantasy championship by trotting out guys like Danny Amendola, Marlon Mack or Tyrell Williams, etc. You win championships when mid and late-round guys from the recent past like DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, DJ Chark, Kareem Hunt, Mark Andrews, etc. break out. The best part is, you'll know quickly whether or not you have a boom or a bust on your hands, so you won't have a tough decision in cutting them free for the hottest waiver add.
- For God's sake, please quit taking your QB before the double-digit rounds. It's probably THE single biggest negative-EV thing that fantasy drafters do. Think of your QB position like your defense. In real-life football, it means everything, but in fantasy one-QB leagues, it's a replaceable position you should not be spending your important draft capital on. Of course it is best to draft a guy late who ends up hitting like Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray last year, but you should also be entering the season understanding that you are not married to your QB -- you should never be. Enter the season prepared to stream the position from week to week if need be, and understand that, while streaming, you are virtually assured to come across a QB you'll end up sticking with. In many of my simulations, really good options like Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz and Cam Newton are available in Rounds 13 and 14 of 12-team leagues, anyway.
- Do not draft a mid-range TE. If you are going to take a TE early like Kittle or Kelce, fine. I don't like it, but I can't argue with doing so at the 2/3 turn over WRs like Chris Godwin and RBs in the tier just below Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones, such as Todd Gurley or Chris Carson. But AVOID MIDDLE-ROUND TEs, there is too much wide receiver value in Rounds 5-10 to even think about deviating. TRUST ME, you will have tremendous upside-options as late as your last pick before kickers and defenses (and yes, pick those two positions last). Some guys I would consider would be Hayden Hurst, Jonnu Smith, TJ Hockenson, Mike Gesicki, Chris Herndon, Ian Thomas and Jack Doyle. Like the QB position, you only need one of these guys. When this is the case, be prepared to stream the position from week to week if need be, just like quarterback. If you don't hit with the right guy in your draft, you should eventually through free agency and waivers.
- If you get to choose your draft slotting, pick 1 for Christian McCaffrey is what you want, but if it is not available, I would prefer to pick toward the end of the round. This assures me my first round featured RB plus my choice of an alpha WR1 such as Davante Adams. Julio Jones or Tyreek Hill or a second top-flight RB such as Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs, etc. with my second pick. Picking early means you'll pick closer to the 2/3 turn -- and that gets dicey as there is a dropoff in level of fantasy asset after pick 19 (2.07).
- Make sure you come out of your first 5 rounds having assembled your core of three stud RBs.
- My best offensive lines in the NFL project as the Colts, the Raiders, the Eagles (even post-Dillard injury) and the Steelers. My worst ones project as the Dolphins, the Bengals, the Jets and the Cardinals.
- Although this is not reason enough alone to draft these players, the wide receivers with the easiest schedules of projected cornerback/WR matchups through the season are: Corey Davis (TEN), Marvin Jones (DET), Robby Anderson (CAR), Michael Gallup (DAL) and Brandon Aiyuk (SF). Although this is not reason enough alone to fade these players, the wide receivers with the most brutal schedules of projected cornerback/WR matchups through the season are: Breshad Perriman (NYJ), N'Keal Harry (NE), Robert Woods (LAR), Stefon Diggs (BUF) and Courtland Sutton (DEN).
- Although this is not reason enough alone to draft these players, the running backs with the easiest schedules of projected matchups of front-seven talent through the season are: Le'Veon Bell (NYJ), Sony Michel/James White/Damien Harris (NE) and Jordan Howard/Matt Breida (MIA). Although this is not reason enough alone to fade these players, the RBs with the most brutal schedules of projected front-seven talent matchups through the season are: Saquon Barkley (NYG), Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (KC), and Miles Sanders (PHI).
- Although this is not reason enough alone to draft these players, the tight ends with the easiest schedules of projected slot and linebacker coverage talent matchups through the season are: Jack Doyle/Trey Burton (IND), Tyler Eifert (JAX) and Mark Andrews (BAL). Although this is not reason enough alone to fade these players, the tight ends with the most brutal schedules of projected slot and linebacker coverage talent matchups through the season are: Hayden Hurst (ATL), Travis Kelce (KC) and Darren Waller (LV).
- Although this is not reason enough alone to draft these players, the QBs with the easiest schedules of projected all-around coverage and pass-rush talent matchups through the season are: Baker Mayfield (CLE), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), and Russell Wilson (SEA). Although this is not reason enough alone to fade these players, the tight ends with the most brutal schedules of projected all-around coverage and pass-rush talent matchups through the season are: Matt Ryan (ATL), Kirk Cousins (MIN) and Drew Lock (DEN).
- The wide receivers who show the biggest POSITIVE disparity between their season-long over/under props and implied PPR fantasy points versus their average draft position (basically, the guys the sportsbooks think are being MOST UNDERVALUED BY FANTASY DRAFTERS) are Devante Parker, MIA (WR26 by ADP but implied WR15 by Vegas), Jamison Crowder, NYJ (WR41 by ADP but implied WR32 by Vegas) and Sterling Shepard, NYG (WR44 by ADP but implied WR35 by Vegas).
- The wide receivers who show the biggest NEGATIVE disparity between their season-long over/under props and implied PPR fantasy points versus their average draft position (basically, the guys the sportsbooks think are being MOST OVERVALUED BY FANTASY DRAFTERS) are AJ Brown, TEN (WR16 by ADP but implied WR29 by Vegas), DK Metcalf, SEA (WR21 by ADP but implied WR33 by Vegas) and Christian Kirk, ARI (WR37 by ADP but implied WR47 by Vegas).
- Don't get drunk during your draft.
- Just kidding.
Find Your Perfect Franchise at MyPerfectFranchise.Net
Orangebloods Owned! Contact Andy Luedecke (aka @widespread panic) anytime at:
aluedecke@myperfectfranchise.net
(404) 973-9901
www.myperfectfranchise.net
1) Austin Peay plays Central Arkansas this weekend
Never have I been more excited for a one-off FCS football matchup.
Clearly, the game represents a return to some bit of normalcy and our great fall tradition of playing, watching and being around the game of football. When I say "being around" the game, it is to say that I'm happy just to drive past a football field where practice is happening. Happy to hear whistles (even if they are electronic ones that you press a button to initiate rather than ones you blow air and its associated droplets into) and smell freshly mowed grass. I'm happy just to have it on TV and hear the sounds of it -- the bumper music coming out of commercials and the announcers doing network reads.
Now, this weekend, we'll be missing the sounds of the bands and the sights of the cheerleaders who will not be making the trip to the neutral-site 2020 Guardian Credit Union FCS Kickoff at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, due to COVID protocols. At least we'll definitely hear the sounds of the crowd and the fans. The game will take place in front of a sold-out 25% stadium capacity. It's going to be different, like much in our lives has been different since March. We're going to get back to normal, though, and, at least for me, having football back in any form is a major step in that direction. We've made it back to football season. What a long, strange trip it's been in this year of our Lord 2020.
2) Looks like I need to update the depth chart (Vernon Broughton at DE)
Not a huge update, but it looks like I'll be having to move Vernon Broughton on the projected depth chart from "in the mix" to contribute, along with fellow freshman Alfred Collins, at the three-technique to competition at the SDE behind Moro Ojomo. Sort of like Ojomo, Broughton feels like a little bit of a jumbo SDE type, but maybe that is what new DC Chris Ash is looking for out of that position.
You have to love the way he dips the shoulder here and converts as backup LT Reese Moore puts on just a miserable rep leaving him overextended and vulnerable. Texas really needs to develop depth at the LT with Sam Cosmi set to leave after this season, but that is another story altogether. I think that Jacoby Jones will be in the mix to be there as well. In fact, it's hard to tell whether this a second-team or third-team rep from the defense. T'Vondre Sweat is involved who seems like he's basically the No.2 nose tackle behind Keondre Coburn and we know that Collins and Broughton have been mixing in with the twos, but the LBs here: a walk-on at the jack and Jalen Hullaby and Marcus Tillman Jr. sort of feel like more of a third-team grouping.
Throw in the fact that BJ Foster is also in with this group, and it feels like the defensive staff is running guys in and out of different groupings to see who looks best together in different combos. The bottom line it is great to see and hear about players like Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton making plays, because there are no two more important pieces to the future of the Texas defense on the current roster.
3) Fantasy tips for your draft this weekend
DO NOT READ IF DRAFTING IN ONE OF MY LEAGUES
THAT MEANS YOU ANWAR! AND DUSTIN!
AND BILL!
AND KETCH!!!!!
***
- If you'd like to draft exactly as I would draft, check out the RosterWatch Cheat Sheet which is my own personal tool/invention that has been successful in helping tens of thousands of players navigate their drafts with expert-quality success over the years.
Aside from that ...
- Make sure you aren't drafting for floor late in your drafts. Many players taken after the 6th round or so in fantasy drafts will end up being dropped anyway. Shoot for the fences with high-upside players in this range. Think Will Fuller and Marquise Brown. Guys who worry you, but who you know have tremendous upside. Rookies like Henry Ruggs and CeeDee Lamb. Young dart-throws with dynamic athleticism like Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson and Cam Akers ... or players who've been epic busts before but look to be in vastly improved situations like Ronald Jones. You get the drift. You're not going to win a fantasy championship by trotting out guys like Danny Amendola, Marlon Mack or Tyrell Williams, etc. You win championships when mid and late-round guys from the recent past like DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, DJ Chark, Kareem Hunt, Mark Andrews, etc. break out. The best part is, you'll know quickly whether or not you have a boom or a bust on your hands, so you won't have a tough decision in cutting them free for the hottest waiver add.
- For God's sake, please quit taking your QB before the double-digit rounds. It's probably THE single biggest negative-EV thing that fantasy drafters do. Think of your QB position like your defense. In real-life football, it means everything, but in fantasy one-QB leagues, it's a replaceable position you should not be spending your important draft capital on. Of course it is best to draft a guy late who ends up hitting like Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray last year, but you should also be entering the season understanding that you are not married to your QB -- you should never be. Enter the season prepared to stream the position from week to week if need be, and understand that, while streaming, you are virtually assured to come across a QB you'll end up sticking with. In many of my simulations, really good options like Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz and Cam Newton are available in Rounds 13 and 14 of 12-team leagues, anyway.
- Do not draft a mid-range TE. If you are going to take a TE early like Kittle or Kelce, fine. I don't like it, but I can't argue with doing so at the 2/3 turn over WRs like Chris Godwin and RBs in the tier just below Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones, such as Todd Gurley or Chris Carson. But AVOID MIDDLE-ROUND TEs, there is too much wide receiver value in Rounds 5-10 to even think about deviating. TRUST ME, you will have tremendous upside-options as late as your last pick before kickers and defenses (and yes, pick those two positions last). Some guys I would consider would be Hayden Hurst, Jonnu Smith, TJ Hockenson, Mike Gesicki, Chris Herndon, Ian Thomas and Jack Doyle. Like the QB position, you only need one of these guys. When this is the case, be prepared to stream the position from week to week if need be, just like quarterback. If you don't hit with the right guy in your draft, you should eventually through free agency and waivers.
- If you get to choose your draft slotting, pick 1 for Christian McCaffrey is what you want, but if it is not available, I would prefer to pick toward the end of the round. This assures me my first round featured RB plus my choice of an alpha WR1 such as Davante Adams. Julio Jones or Tyreek Hill or a second top-flight RB such as Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs, etc. with my second pick. Picking early means you'll pick closer to the 2/3 turn -- and that gets dicey as there is a dropoff in level of fantasy asset after pick 19 (2.07).
- Make sure you come out of your first 5 rounds having assembled your core of three stud RBs.
- My best offensive lines in the NFL project as the Colts, the Raiders, the Eagles (even post-Dillard injury) and the Steelers. My worst ones project as the Dolphins, the Bengals, the Jets and the Cardinals.
- Although this is not reason enough alone to draft these players, the wide receivers with the easiest schedules of projected cornerback/WR matchups through the season are: Corey Davis (TEN), Marvin Jones (DET), Robby Anderson (CAR), Michael Gallup (DAL) and Brandon Aiyuk (SF). Although this is not reason enough alone to fade these players, the wide receivers with the most brutal schedules of projected cornerback/WR matchups through the season are: Breshad Perriman (NYJ), N'Keal Harry (NE), Robert Woods (LAR), Stefon Diggs (BUF) and Courtland Sutton (DEN).
- Although this is not reason enough alone to draft these players, the running backs with the easiest schedules of projected matchups of front-seven talent through the season are: Le'Veon Bell (NYJ), Sony Michel/James White/Damien Harris (NE) and Jordan Howard/Matt Breida (MIA). Although this is not reason enough alone to fade these players, the RBs with the most brutal schedules of projected front-seven talent matchups through the season are: Saquon Barkley (NYG), Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (KC), and Miles Sanders (PHI).
- Although this is not reason enough alone to draft these players, the tight ends with the easiest schedules of projected slot and linebacker coverage talent matchups through the season are: Jack Doyle/Trey Burton (IND), Tyler Eifert (JAX) and Mark Andrews (BAL). Although this is not reason enough alone to fade these players, the tight ends with the most brutal schedules of projected slot and linebacker coverage talent matchups through the season are: Hayden Hurst (ATL), Travis Kelce (KC) and Darren Waller (LV).
- Although this is not reason enough alone to draft these players, the QBs with the easiest schedules of projected all-around coverage and pass-rush talent matchups through the season are: Baker Mayfield (CLE), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), and Russell Wilson (SEA). Although this is not reason enough alone to fade these players, the tight ends with the most brutal schedules of projected all-around coverage and pass-rush talent matchups through the season are: Matt Ryan (ATL), Kirk Cousins (MIN) and Drew Lock (DEN).
- The wide receivers who show the biggest POSITIVE disparity between their season-long over/under props and implied PPR fantasy points versus their average draft position (basically, the guys the sportsbooks think are being MOST UNDERVALUED BY FANTASY DRAFTERS) are Devante Parker, MIA (WR26 by ADP but implied WR15 by Vegas), Jamison Crowder, NYJ (WR41 by ADP but implied WR32 by Vegas) and Sterling Shepard, NYG (WR44 by ADP but implied WR35 by Vegas).
- The wide receivers who show the biggest NEGATIVE disparity between their season-long over/under props and implied PPR fantasy points versus their average draft position (basically, the guys the sportsbooks think are being MOST OVERVALUED BY FANTASY DRAFTERS) are AJ Brown, TEN (WR16 by ADP but implied WR29 by Vegas), DK Metcalf, SEA (WR21 by ADP but implied WR33 by Vegas) and Christian Kirk, ARI (WR37 by ADP but implied WR47 by Vegas).
- Don't get drunk during your draft.
- Just kidding.
