From USA Today for you "Stats Guys" re: SEC Championship

oktexan · 2024-11-16T07:34:38-0600

SEC tiebreaker rules: Scenarios, best chances to make conference championship game

Austin Curtright
USA TODAY NETWORK

There are still numerous college football teams in contention for the 2024 SEC championship.
And with the conference moving away from divisions after Oklahoma and Texas joined the league in 2024, finding the two teams that face off for the conference title game has gotten a little tricky.

Texas A&M, Tennessee and Texas are all tied atop the SEC standings with one conference loss each, with Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri each tied with two losses.
There's still plenty to figure out between now and Dec. 7, when the game is held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, as multiple of those teams still in contention have yet to play this season. And how the conference standings shake out could prove to have massive College Football Playoff implications, with the conference champion a virtual lock to claim a first-round bye.
Here are the SEC standings tiebreaker scenarios, including which teams are likeliest to reach the SEC Championship Game this season:

SEC standings tiebreakers

There are six ways to break a tiebreaker in the SEC's current tiebreaker rules, which were announced in August.
There's a list of ways to break a tie, and the procedures are enacted in descending order to decide who earns the higher spot or spots between teams.
Here's the full list of tiebreakers, according to the SEC:

A. Head-to-head competition against the tied teams
B. Record versus all common conference opponents
C. Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among the tied teams
D. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams
E. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all conference opponents among the tied teams
F. Random draw of tied teams

In the case that two teams are tied for first place in the SEC standings, both will qualify for the SEC championship game. The tiebreaker process would then be used to determine home/away seeding.

SEC tiebreaker scenarios

There are a plethora of teams still fighting for a spot in the SEC championship. Here are the easiest paths to the game for each of the remaining teams in contention:

Tennessee: Beat Georgia AND Vanderbilt
Texas A&M: Beat Auburn AND Texas
Texas: Beat Arkansas, Kentucky AND Texas A&M
Alabama: Beat Oklahoma AND Auburn | Georgia OR Vanderbilt beats Tennessee | Missouri wins at least two of three remaining SEC games vs. South Carolina, Mississippi State and Arkansas

Tennessee, Texas A&M and Texas each control their own destiny for a spot in the SEC championship game. If Tennessee wins out and Texas A&M and Texas don't lose until facing in the regular season finale, the Vols will face the winner of a revived in-state rivalry. That's the easiest scenario.
Alabama also has a relatively straight-forward path to the SEC title game, even though it doesn't control its own destiny.
The Crimson Tide needs to win out, have Tennessee to drop one of its remaining games to Georgia or Vanderbilt and have Missouri win two of its three remaining games against South Carolina, Mississippi State and Arkansas. At that point, Alabama would finish above Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas A&M on conference opponent win percentage (.500) and ahead of LSU due to head-to-head results.
The tiebreaker scenarios get dicey for the remaining teams in contention in Georgia, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU, as they would need utter chaos to find themselves in the game.
Speaking of chaos, there is a scenario in which the SEC finishes with an eight-way tie for first place in the league. How about that for first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff? Some programs are likely going to be scratching their head in that case.
Here's what needs to happen for an SEC Armageddon:

Georgia beats Tennessee
The winner between Texas and Texas A&M lose before their season finale
Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri win out

This scenario would put eight teams at two losses and would result in a tiebreaker of strength of schedule.
In that scenario, Alabama would finish first ahead of Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M, based on conference opponent win percentage (51.56%). LSU would finish second behind the Crimson Tide and ahead of the aforementioned teams with a conference opponent win percentage of 48.44%.

Best chances to win SEC championship game

Here's which SEC teams have the best chance at winning the SEC Championship, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. The FPI factors in chances at qualifying for the conference championship.

Texas (36.7%)
Alabama (32.2%)
Tennessee (12.7%)
Georgia (7.7%)
Texas A&M (6.4%)
LSU (3.4%)
Ole Miss (0.9%)
Missouri (0.1%)

Missouri is the last team that hasn't been eliminated from SEC championship contention yet, as Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and South Carolina mathematically can't reach the game.