History suggests you can't win a championship without landing at least three top-ten classes in the years leading up to your national title.
Here are the champions over the last decade and their Rivals rankings for the five classes leading up to the game (that way we include any redshirt seniors who may have helped win the title). In two cases, Ohio State in 2014 and Alabama in 2009, I included recruiting classes that landed at 11th and I've highlighted them. However, in each of those instances, those teams already had three other top-ten finishes.
- 2015 ALABAMA (#2 in 2015, #1 in 2014, #1 in 2013, #1 in 2012, #1 in 2011)
- 2014 OHIO STATE (#3 in 2014, #2 in 2013, #4 in 2012) - (#11 in 2010)
- 2013 FLORIDA STATE (#10 in 2013, #6 in 2012, #2 in 2011, #10 in 2010, #7 in 2009)
- 2012 ALABAMA (#1 in 2012, #1 in 2011, #5 in 2010, #1 in 2009, #1 in 2008)
- 2011 ALABAMA (#1 in 2011, #5 in 2010, #1 in 2009, #1 in 2008, #10 in 2007)
- 2010 AUBURN (#4 in 2010, #7 in 2007, #10 in 2006)
- 2009 ALABAMA (#1 in 2009, #1 in 2008, #10 in 2007) - (#11 in 2006)
- 2008 FLORIDA (#3 in 2008, #1 in 2007, #2 in 2006, #7 in 2004)
- 2007 LSU (#4 in 2007, #7 in 2006, #2 in 2004, #1 in 2003)
- 2006 FLORIDA (#2 in 2006, #7 in 2004, #2 in 2003)
So if history holds true (and it usually does), then one of these teams below will win the national championship this upcoming season. These schools have had at least three top-ten finishes over the past five recruiting classes, including the one that was inked yesterday.
- ALABAMA (#1 in 2016, #2 in 2015, #1 in 2014, #1 in 2013, #1 in 2012)
- AUBURN (#9 in 2016, #7 in 2015, # 9 in 2014, #10 in 2012)
- LSU (#6 IN 2016, #8 in 2015, #2 in 2014, #6 in 2013)
- FLORIDA (#8 in 2014, #4 in 2013, #3 in 2012)
- GEORGIA (#10 in 2016, #6 in 2015, #7 in 2014)
- OHIO STATE (#3 in 2016, #9 in 2015, #3 in 2014, #4 in 2012)
- MICHIGAN (#4 in 2015, #5 in 2013, #7 in 2012)
- FSU (#2 in 2016, #3 in 2015, #4 in 2014, #10 in 2013, #6 in 2012)
- USC (#8 in 2016, #1 in 2015, #10 in 2014, #8 in 2012)
One final note about Alabama, under Nick Saban, no recruiting class has gone all four years without winning a national championship.
Just for reference, here are UT's classes.
- TEXAS (#13 in 2016, #12 in 2015, #20 in 2014, #24 in 2013, #2 in 2012)
Here are the champions over the last decade and their Rivals rankings for the five classes leading up to the game (that way we include any redshirt seniors who may have helped win the title). In two cases, Ohio State in 2014 and Alabama in 2009, I included recruiting classes that landed at 11th and I've highlighted them. However, in each of those instances, those teams already had three other top-ten finishes.
- 2015 ALABAMA (#2 in 2015, #1 in 2014, #1 in 2013, #1 in 2012, #1 in 2011)
- 2014 OHIO STATE (#3 in 2014, #2 in 2013, #4 in 2012) - (#11 in 2010)
- 2013 FLORIDA STATE (#10 in 2013, #6 in 2012, #2 in 2011, #10 in 2010, #7 in 2009)
- 2012 ALABAMA (#1 in 2012, #1 in 2011, #5 in 2010, #1 in 2009, #1 in 2008)
- 2011 ALABAMA (#1 in 2011, #5 in 2010, #1 in 2009, #1 in 2008, #10 in 2007)
- 2010 AUBURN (#4 in 2010, #7 in 2007, #10 in 2006)
- 2009 ALABAMA (#1 in 2009, #1 in 2008, #10 in 2007) - (#11 in 2006)
- 2008 FLORIDA (#3 in 2008, #1 in 2007, #2 in 2006, #7 in 2004)
- 2007 LSU (#4 in 2007, #7 in 2006, #2 in 2004, #1 in 2003)
- 2006 FLORIDA (#2 in 2006, #7 in 2004, #2 in 2003)
So if history holds true (and it usually does), then one of these teams below will win the national championship this upcoming season. These schools have had at least three top-ten finishes over the past five recruiting classes, including the one that was inked yesterday.
- ALABAMA (#1 in 2016, #2 in 2015, #1 in 2014, #1 in 2013, #1 in 2012)
- AUBURN (#9 in 2016, #7 in 2015, # 9 in 2014, #10 in 2012)
- LSU (#6 IN 2016, #8 in 2015, #2 in 2014, #6 in 2013)
- FLORIDA (#8 in 2014, #4 in 2013, #3 in 2012)
- GEORGIA (#10 in 2016, #6 in 2015, #7 in 2014)
- OHIO STATE (#3 in 2016, #9 in 2015, #3 in 2014, #4 in 2012)
- MICHIGAN (#4 in 2015, #5 in 2013, #7 in 2012)
- FSU (#2 in 2016, #3 in 2015, #4 in 2014, #10 in 2013, #6 in 2012)
- USC (#8 in 2016, #1 in 2015, #10 in 2014, #8 in 2012)
One final note about Alabama, under Nick Saban, no recruiting class has gone all four years without winning a national championship.
Just for reference, here are UT's classes.
- TEXAS (#13 in 2016, #12 in 2015, #20 in 2014, #24 in 2013, #2 in 2012)
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