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1. Nineteen teams could realistically be in the market for new quarterbacks this offseason. Here’s my betting guide to all 19, starting with those most likely to make a change. Pittsburgh leads the way at -1000 to make a change.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are the veteran quarterbacks teams have to at least consider as potentially available. All have vast experience. All would be preferable in the short term to quarterbacks available in the 2022 draft, according to most evaluators. And they’re much preferable to free-agent options that could include names such as Teddy Bridgewater and Marcus Mariota.
But if only one or two become available, some of these teams will be stuck.
Group 1: Teams that absolutely, positively need new QBs
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1000): Ben Roethlisberger plans to retire, and the Steelers must decide whether to pursue a veteran starter or ride with Mason Rudolph. Last month, an exec suggested the Falcons’ Ryan as a trade candidate.
Denver Broncos (-750): Bridgewater was 26th and Drew Lock 31st among the 34 veteran quarterbacks rated by 50 coaches and evaluators in my 2021 Quarterback Tiers survey before the season. They aren’t rising after this season.
Washington Football Team (-500): Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heinicke aren’t the long-term answers. Can Ron Rivera let a third year pass without addressing the position more aggressively? That would be hard to justify.
New Orleans Saints (-500): Sean Payton isn’t contending for the Super Bowl with Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston at the position. The Saints will be mentioned in the Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers conversations despite their salary-cap restrictions.
Group 2: Teams that belong in the first group but deserve their own
Carolina Panthers (-400): Ownership’s interest in Watson appeared strong enough for some in the league to suspect Carolina is where the former Houston starter will wind up if/when a trade is viable. Yes, Sam Darnold has $18.8 million in fully guaranteed fifth-year option salary coming to him in 2022, but the perception here is that Panthers owner David Tepper won’t let the Panthers go all-in on him again.
Houston Texans (-300): Davis Mills has been a pleasant enough surprise for some to think Houston could consider going another season with him, no matter what the Texans think of his long-term prospects. Timing is a key variable. If the Texans do trade Watson, they could have the capital to strike for a quarterback in 2023, when evaluators think the QB options in the draft will be better.
Group 3: Caught in between but probably changing
San Francisco 49ers (-300): Garoppolo remains under contract for next season, and if he leads a deep playoff run, the situation could become interesting. But the odds favor San Francisco transitioning to Trey Lance. At that point, holding onto Garoppolo and his $27 million cap number for 2022 wouldn’t make sense. This offseason could be a good one for trading a veteran if teams continue to see few immediate starting options through other means.
Group 4: Teams married to quarterbacks they would ideally ditch for better options but might stick with for another year
New York Giants (+100): A potential change in Giants leadership could affect how the organization values Daniel Jones. The team needs to decide by the spring whether to exercise Jones’ fully guaranteed fifth-year option.
Miami Dolphins (+100): Ownership pushed for Watson before the season. Ownership could make another push in 2022, but the most likely scenario could involve Tua Tagovailoa returning, even though the Dolphins finished a league-high 15 of 17 games this season with negative expected points added (EPA) on offense, according to TruMedia.
Minnesota Vikings (+100): Cousins has one season and $35 million in guaranteed salary left on his deal at a time when organizational changes appear likely. His deal would count only $10 million against the Vikings’ 2022 cap if Minnesota traded him. There are complicating factors. A new coach in Minnesota might prefer having a veteran quarterback, as the case was in Atlanta when Arthur Smith inherited Ryan. Also, any team acquiring Cousins might have to consider an extension.
Cleveland Browns (+100): Baker Mayfield has $18.8 million in fully guaranteed fifth-year option salary for 2022. Cleveland might like to upgrade, but the timing could be less than ideal. How aggressive do the Browns want to be in the short term?
Group 5: Teams that could be open to change but could live happily with their current starters for another year
Las Vegas Raiders (+500): Carr has one year left on his contract and could be traded easily from a cap standpoint, but he could be the Raiders’ best option. How Carr fares in the playoffs could influence the team’s thinking regarding him and organizational changes in general.
Detroit Lions (+500): The Lions could draft Pitt’s Kenny Pickett or another quarterback with the second pick this year, but sticking with Jared Goff for one more season seems likely. The team would likely remain in good position to draft a quarterback in 2023.
Atlanta Falcons (+500): Moving Ryan would require the Falcons being comfortable with carrying a sizable salary-cap footprint on the books in his absence, much the way Philadelphia has done after trading Carson Wentz. There would be a market for Ryan if the team did decide to rebuild more openly.
Philadelphia Eagles (+600): Jalen Hurts has done enough for the Eagles to bring him back as their starter, but with a fair amount of draft capital in hand, Philly could keep open its options in case Wilson, Rodgers or Watson became available.
Indianapolis Colts (+600): Wentz started all 17 games in his first Colts season, posted a winning record and put up numbers in line with his 2018-2019 production. But the way this Colts season ended, and given the shakiness Wentz displayed in key moments, the team should ask difficult questions at the very least. More on him below.
Group 6: The potential wild-card surprise team
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750): Wait, isn’t Tom Brady going to play forever? Sometimes it seems as though he could. Though Brady’s production remains exceptional, this season has been taxing enough on multiple fronts for some near the situation to wonder at least a little bit whether the end could be nearer than everyone expects.
Group 7: Elephants in the room
Seattle Seahawks (+1000): Wilson has two years remaining on his contract, so the Seahawks would have to agree to trade him. Wilson has a no-trade clause, so he would have to approve any destinations. If coach Pete Carroll returns, Wilson must decide just how badly he wants to play in an offense centered more overtly around a high-volume passing attack. Would Wilson be willing to fight his way out of Seattle at the expense of his legacy there? I considered shortening the odds for Wilson, but let’s see how the coming weeks play out.
Green Bay Packers (+1500): Rodgers seems happier in Green Bay, but we don’t know what promises have been made behind the scenes, or exactly what matters most to Rodgers during the coming offseason. He could have the leverage to push for a top-of-the-market, fully guaranteed extension that could force the team to make a decision on backup Jordan Love, or he could report to work in the spring as usual. Nothing would surprise here.
theathletic.com
1. Nineteen teams could realistically be in the market for new quarterbacks this offseason. Here’s my betting guide to all 19, starting with those most likely to make a change. Pittsburgh leads the way at -1000 to make a change.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are the veteran quarterbacks teams have to at least consider as potentially available. All have vast experience. All would be preferable in the short term to quarterbacks available in the 2022 draft, according to most evaluators. And they’re much preferable to free-agent options that could include names such as Teddy Bridgewater and Marcus Mariota.
But if only one or two become available, some of these teams will be stuck.
Group 1: Teams that absolutely, positively need new QBs
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1000): Ben Roethlisberger plans to retire, and the Steelers must decide whether to pursue a veteran starter or ride with Mason Rudolph. Last month, an exec suggested the Falcons’ Ryan as a trade candidate.
Denver Broncos (-750): Bridgewater was 26th and Drew Lock 31st among the 34 veteran quarterbacks rated by 50 coaches and evaluators in my 2021 Quarterback Tiers survey before the season. They aren’t rising after this season.
Washington Football Team (-500): Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heinicke aren’t the long-term answers. Can Ron Rivera let a third year pass without addressing the position more aggressively? That would be hard to justify.
New Orleans Saints (-500): Sean Payton isn’t contending for the Super Bowl with Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston at the position. The Saints will be mentioned in the Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers conversations despite their salary-cap restrictions.
Group 2: Teams that belong in the first group but deserve their own
Carolina Panthers (-400): Ownership’s interest in Watson appeared strong enough for some in the league to suspect Carolina is where the former Houston starter will wind up if/when a trade is viable. Yes, Sam Darnold has $18.8 million in fully guaranteed fifth-year option salary coming to him in 2022, but the perception here is that Panthers owner David Tepper won’t let the Panthers go all-in on him again.
Houston Texans (-300): Davis Mills has been a pleasant enough surprise for some to think Houston could consider going another season with him, no matter what the Texans think of his long-term prospects. Timing is a key variable. If the Texans do trade Watson, they could have the capital to strike for a quarterback in 2023, when evaluators think the QB options in the draft will be better.
Group 3: Caught in between but probably changing
San Francisco 49ers (-300): Garoppolo remains under contract for next season, and if he leads a deep playoff run, the situation could become interesting. But the odds favor San Francisco transitioning to Trey Lance. At that point, holding onto Garoppolo and his $27 million cap number for 2022 wouldn’t make sense. This offseason could be a good one for trading a veteran if teams continue to see few immediate starting options through other means.
Group 4: Teams married to quarterbacks they would ideally ditch for better options but might stick with for another year
New York Giants (+100): A potential change in Giants leadership could affect how the organization values Daniel Jones. The team needs to decide by the spring whether to exercise Jones’ fully guaranteed fifth-year option.
Miami Dolphins (+100): Ownership pushed for Watson before the season. Ownership could make another push in 2022, but the most likely scenario could involve Tua Tagovailoa returning, even though the Dolphins finished a league-high 15 of 17 games this season with negative expected points added (EPA) on offense, according to TruMedia.
Minnesota Vikings (+100): Cousins has one season and $35 million in guaranteed salary left on his deal at a time when organizational changes appear likely. His deal would count only $10 million against the Vikings’ 2022 cap if Minnesota traded him. There are complicating factors. A new coach in Minnesota might prefer having a veteran quarterback, as the case was in Atlanta when Arthur Smith inherited Ryan. Also, any team acquiring Cousins might have to consider an extension.
Cleveland Browns (+100): Baker Mayfield has $18.8 million in fully guaranteed fifth-year option salary for 2022. Cleveland might like to upgrade, but the timing could be less than ideal. How aggressive do the Browns want to be in the short term?
Group 5: Teams that could be open to change but could live happily with their current starters for another year
Las Vegas Raiders (+500): Carr has one year left on his contract and could be traded easily from a cap standpoint, but he could be the Raiders’ best option. How Carr fares in the playoffs could influence the team’s thinking regarding him and organizational changes in general.
Detroit Lions (+500): The Lions could draft Pitt’s Kenny Pickett or another quarterback with the second pick this year, but sticking with Jared Goff for one more season seems likely. The team would likely remain in good position to draft a quarterback in 2023.
Atlanta Falcons (+500): Moving Ryan would require the Falcons being comfortable with carrying a sizable salary-cap footprint on the books in his absence, much the way Philadelphia has done after trading Carson Wentz. There would be a market for Ryan if the team did decide to rebuild more openly.
Philadelphia Eagles (+600): Jalen Hurts has done enough for the Eagles to bring him back as their starter, but with a fair amount of draft capital in hand, Philly could keep open its options in case Wilson, Rodgers or Watson became available.
Indianapolis Colts (+600): Wentz started all 17 games in his first Colts season, posted a winning record and put up numbers in line with his 2018-2019 production. But the way this Colts season ended, and given the shakiness Wentz displayed in key moments, the team should ask difficult questions at the very least. More on him below.
Group 6: The potential wild-card surprise team
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750): Wait, isn’t Tom Brady going to play forever? Sometimes it seems as though he could. Though Brady’s production remains exceptional, this season has been taxing enough on multiple fronts for some near the situation to wonder at least a little bit whether the end could be nearer than everyone expects.
Group 7: Elephants in the room
Seattle Seahawks (+1000): Wilson has two years remaining on his contract, so the Seahawks would have to agree to trade him. Wilson has a no-trade clause, so he would have to approve any destinations. If coach Pete Carroll returns, Wilson must decide just how badly he wants to play in an offense centered more overtly around a high-volume passing attack. Would Wilson be willing to fight his way out of Seattle at the expense of his legacy there? I considered shortening the odds for Wilson, but let’s see how the coming weeks play out.
Green Bay Packers (+1500): Rodgers seems happier in Green Bay, but we don’t know what promises have been made behind the scenes, or exactly what matters most to Rodgers during the coming offseason. He could have the leverage to push for a top-of-the-market, fully guaranteed extension that could force the team to make a decision on backup Jordan Love, or he could report to work in the spring as usual. Nothing would surprise here.
NFL teams with a new starting QB Week 1 of 2022, starting with the Steelers: Mike Sando’s betting guide
Plus questions about Vic Fangio's end with Denver, Mike Vrabel's coach of the year candidacy, the Colts' future with Carson Wentz and more.
theathletic.com
