Spring football delivers hope, optimism, potential, and an undefeated record. It also temporary scratches the football itch as the first sign the upcoming season isn’t an eternity away, and scratches that itch by presenting talking points and eventually too much analysis. We’re all guilty.
Anyway, let’s explore a few of those talking points, UT hoops and baseball, MLB’s upcoming season (prediction time), the Final Four, and more.
1) To describe our conversation during the most recent OB Podcast as, “spirited,” when the topic of talent arose is like describing Dennis Rodman as only being kind of weird. The discussion of talent, specifically on offense, does present an intriguing discussion: was the offense’s struggles last season more about coaching or talent, and is its future production next season, put in its simplest form, almost all about coaching?
Relative to other programs on its level, I see talent on the Texas offense, but not a lot. Make no mistake, there are pieces to work with at each position group, but one question seemingly reveals a lot about the offense: who is the best player?
Not as easy as you thought. Collin Johnson probably gets some votes, and maybe Lil’Jordan Humphrey too. Picking a quarterback is very difficult to justify. The same applies to the offensive line. Perhaps Daniel Young, but that also reinforces the general point.
Right now, the Texas offense isn’t loaded with talent, and most of the top-end talent is probably in its receiver group.
2) Let’s break it down by position group:
Recruiting rankings aren’t the be-all and end-all, but they generally paint an accurate image, or at the very last a place to start. So, let’s identify the number of five-star prospects, Rivals100 four-star prospects, Rivals250 four-star prospects, unranked four-star prospects, and three-star prospects among each position group using Alex Dunlap’s recent offensive depth chart projection before spring football. The 2018 class that hasn’t enrolled yet isn’t factored in.
(players identified by 2018 season age)
QUARTERBACKS
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 0
Rivals250: 3
Unranked four-star prospects: 1
Three-star prospects: 0
Sam Ehlinger (sophomore), Shane Buechele (junior), and Cameron Rising (freshman) were all Rivals250 prospects, and Casey Thompson (freshman) just missed the Rivals250 cut.
RUNNING BACKS
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 0
Rivals250: 2
Unranked four-star prospects: 0
Three-star prospects: 2
Kyle Porter (junior) and Toneil Carter (sophomore) arrived at Texas as Rivals250 prospects while Tristian Houston (junior) and Daniel Young (sophomore) were three-star prospects.
TIGHT ENDS
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 0
Rivals250: 0
Unranked four-star prospects: 1
Three-star prospects: 2
Andrew Beck (senior) and Cade Brewer (sophomore) were three-star prospects out of high school, and Reese Leitao (redshirt freshman) was a four-star prospect outside the Rivals250. Obviously, Brewer is dealing with an injury. Texas recently moved Max Cummins (two-star prospect) to tight end.
RECEIVERS
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 5
Rivals250: 0
Unranked four-star prospects: 0
Three-star prospects: 3
Jerrod Heard (arrived as a QB; senior), John Burt (senior), Devin Duvernay (junior), Collin Johnson (junior), and Brennan Eagles were all Rivals100 prospects. Lil’Jordan Humphrey (junior), Davion Curtis (sophomore), and Jordan Pouncey (redshirt freshman) arrived at Texas as three-star prospects.
OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 0
Rivals250: 3
Unranked four-star prospects: 0
Three-star prospects: 4
Two-star prospects: 1
Denzel Okafor (junior), Patrick Vahe (senior), and J.P. Urquidez (sophomore) were all rated as Rivals250 prospects. Junior college transfer Mikey Grandy (junior) was a four-star prospect while Sam Cosmi (redshirt freshman), Derek Kerstetter (sophomore), Tope Imade (sophomore), and Zach Shackelford (junior) were three-star prospects. Elijah Rodriguez (senior), a late sign years ago, was a two-star prospect.
3) IN TOTAL (27)
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 5
Rivals250: 8
Unranked four-star prospects: 2
Three-star prospects: 11
Two-star prospects: 1
As expected, a majority of the top 100 talent that arrived on campus is concentrated in one position group – receivers. Heck, all of it is. Rivals250 prospects are sprinkled throughout the other position groups with four of those prospects either being players that haven’t performed at a high level in starting opportunities, haven’t been able to get on the field, or just arrived on campus.
Even if you want to label players like Brewer, Young, and Kerstetter as underrated, it doesn’t dramatically change the presented image, and they were all true freshmen last season.
4) Does this talent discussion excuse coaching and let it off the hook? Of course not. Texas was awful on offense last season, and that falls at the feet of the coaches.
However, the relationship between coaching/development and available talent is in some ways the equivalent of football’s chicken or the egg discussion. Coaches can only work with the talent they have, and talent matters. Just look at the teams that finish atop the recruiting rankings every year. Texas wasn’t working with a bunch of no-doubt Sunday players or all-conference selections last season, and it's unclear how likely it is to do that this season too. However, there are programs that don’t sign Alabama or Clemson-type classes and still put good offenses on the field. Just look north of the Red River.
Texas didn’t maximize its talent on offense last season, clearly. But a talent maximization in 2017 turned into? Perhaps a below average offense, give or take.
5) Looking ahead, no one should expect Texas to go from zero – it was literally in the bottom 10-20 in offense last season – to 100. However, the Longhorns improving from the bottom tier to a middle tier (consistently average offense that’s at times better) would be an enormous lift because we know what the defense is capable of and how much confidence Tom Herman has in Todd Orlando.
6) Kerwin Roach II declaring for the NBA Draft without an agent isn’t a surprise. Why wouldn’t he after his junior season? This is the only offseason Roach has to take advantage of the rules, which allow players to workout for teams and receive direct NBA feedback to better make a decision about whether to stay in the draft, and where they need to improve both in college and overall.
What happens once Roach and his family receive that feedback is another question. I think he’s more likely to be at Texas as a senior than turn professional, but feedback can be taken a number of ways.
7) I’ve never encountered a high-profile recruit that put as much thought and research into his recruiting decision as Mo Bamba did. He considered about everything a young man could when making a decision, which led him to picking Texas. The top prospects that spend their summers on the AAU circuit playing in the biggest events are a pretty tight group; it’s not uncommon for players to know players two years younger and two years older. This was Bamba’s response when I asked him what he’d tell top prospects that asked about Texas:
“My message would be pretty simple: If you want to have a great relationship with your coach and you want to be told the truth, yet you don’t want to be babied, I think you should come to Texas. I think you should play for coach Smart,” he said.
Honestly is of enormous importance to Bamba. He’s been through a lot in his life, and it’s tested his trust in people, and led him to keeping a tighter circle. Honesty was what he was looking for in a program during his recruitment, what he received at Texas, and what will play a role in Bamba becoming a great ambassador and recruiter for Texas.
8) The next challenge for David Pierce and his staff is figuring out how to get the best out of Chase Shugart. The junior righthander was UT’s best starting pitcher in the fall and the preseason, by far, and appeared poised to breakout this season. While he’s had some bad luck (dumb scoring by LSU’s scorekeeper; some routine fly balls falling in for hits thanks to bad defense; 3.72 FIP compared to 5.40 ERA), he also hasn’t been nearly as sharp recently as he was to begin the season and the fall.
Should Texas move him back to the bullpen? That’s probably something Pierce and company ask themselves daily. No matter what, though, Texas needs to get his stuff back to where it was in the preseason. I’d ditch the slider, a pitch Texas added before the season, temporarily and focus more on the curve, two-seam fastball and four-seam fastball, and mixing in the changeup. Although Shugart has touched 96 MPH this season, his fastball hasn’t played up to that velocity, which is likely because it’s coming out of a 5-10 frame (lack of tilt and angle), command, and Texas has been throwing so many fastballs and sliders. Throwing backwards more often with the curve and changeup with better two-seam command could really help Shugart.
Texas needs him to get back to where he was because the pitching staff lacks depth and quality options.
9) The Longhorns are hitting .268/.386/.413 as a team, and seven regulars have an on-base percentage of .374 or better. Texas is scoring 5.77 runs per game, and is starting to get Austin Todd back to normal and after David Hamilton’s homer last night, he’s clearly rounding back into form also.
With the lineup flexibility Pierce has to use a platoon approach with part of the lineup, Texas could end up having one of its better offenses in recent seasons. It won’t always look pretty, but Texas, generally, is competing really well one through nine, is getting contributions up-and-down the order, and is capitalizing on run-scoring chances with a noticeable improvement in two-strike and two-out situational hitting.
10) MLB PREVIEW
AL EAST
Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Rays
Orioles
I’m a big believer that offense plays the biggest role in driving regular season results, and the Yankees are going to mash this year. Offense is less likely to be affected by injuries compared to starting pitching. Boston, who did add a desperately-needed power bat in J.D. Martinez, has better starting pitching, but lacks depth.
Toronto is in baseball purgatory – is it going to go for it this year, or is it going to rebuild? The Rays could contend for a Wild Card if its pitching is as good as it can be and the run-prevention follows suit. Baltimore is a mess.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Austin Hays (Orioles), Gleyber Torres (Yankees), Willy Adames (Rays)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Rafael Devers (Red Sox)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Blake Snell (Rays)
Devers is one of the best young hitters at his age I’ve ever seen, and could hit .285 with 25 homers this season. Tampa Bay fixed Snell’s mechanics late last season, and he’s been dominant in Spring Training.
11) AL CENTRAL
Indians
Twins
White Sox
Royals
Tigers
Clearly, the Indians are the class of the division, a division that then drops to an overachieving Twins team, a White Sox team waiting for all its prospect talent to graduate, and two other rebuilding teams. Cleveland is the only playoff team.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Michael Kopech (White Sox), Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox), Francisco Mejia (Indians), Eloy Jimenez (White Sox)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Nick Castellanos (Tigers)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Lucas Giolito (White Sox)
If you can’t figure it out by now, the White Sox system is loaded. Jimenez might be the best hitting prospect on the planet, and Kopech has Justin Verlander and Thor-like qualities if he can just throw strikes. As for Giolito, his release point looked tweaked, and his curve much better. Castellanos already had a breakout-type season, but he’ll be even better (30-plus homers) in 2018.
12) AL WEST
Astros
Angels
Mariners
A’s
Rangers
Like the AL Central, there is clearly one team above the rest in the AL West – the Astros. The Angels made some solid acquisitions in the offseason, and if their starting pitching can remain healthy for a change, there’s a real chance they’re a Wild Card team. However, Shohei Ohtani’s Spring Training was cringeworthy, although one should never put too much stock into Spring Training stats. Is Felix Hernandez ever going to be “King Felix” again? Unlikely. Seattle has some nice pieces, but it also had to sign 44-year-old Ichiro Suzuki for outfield depth.
The A’s will piece together a lineup that’s better than most think, but there simply isn’t a lot of quality talent on that roster. As for the Rangers, always bet the over. It’ll help you watch Matt Moore, Doug Fister, and Martin Perez.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Willie Calhoun (Rangers), Franklin Berreto (A’s)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Willie Calhoun (Rangers)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Gerrit Cole (Astros)
I am all aboard the Willie Calhoun train. He’s going to hit .280 or better and hit bombs too. Heck, he might hit 30 bombs this year. Picking Cole as a breakout pitcher is cheating, but here’s my logic: the Astros are going to unlock him by throwing more breaking balls than he ever has. Cole came from a fastball-heavy franchise, and will now be pitching for one that uses breaking balls more than anyone.
13) NL EAST
Nationals
Phillies
Mets
Braves
Marlins
Another division with one team clearly better than the rest. With the addition of Jake Arrietta and the aggressive move to play top prospect Scott Kingery now, the Phillies moved ahead of the Mets. Speaking of the Mets, their pitchers better stay healthy and miss bats because the outfield defense could be a disaster.
The Braves are loaded with young talent, but they need another year. Meanwhile, the Marlins have no direction, traded their best players, and I bet you can’t name more than two pitchers in their rotation.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Ronald Acuna, Jr. (Braves), Lewis Brinson (Marlins), Victor Robles (Nationals), Scott Kingery (Phillies), J.P. Crawford (Phillies)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Ronald Acuna, Jr. (Braves), Scott Kingery (Phillies)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Luiz Gohara (Braves)
Acuna was the best player in Braves camp, but was sent down to delay free agency another year. Meanwhile, the Phillies said “screw it” and kept Kingery on the big league club, and was able to sign him to an extension. Back to Acuna: he’s the best prospect in baseball, and a future 30-30 player. Heck, he’ll hit 20 homers and steal 25 bags at the MLB level this year. Some young hitters mash the ball so hard it sounds like gunshots off the bat. Acuna will send some people ducking for cover during batting practice.
Brinson is the everyday centerfielder in Miami and a candidate to hit 20 homers with 25 steals while Robles is kind of like a lighter version of Acuna. Gohara has the ability to miss bats and emerge as one of the Braves’ best starters if he can stay healthy and keep his body in shape.
14) NL CENTRAL
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Pirates
Reds
Finally, a division with some competition. Although Chicago is the clear pick, the Cardinals and Brewers aren’t far behind. St. Louis was able to capitalize on the Miami firesale and grab Marcell Ozuna. Plus, it’s loaded with young arms in the rotation. Milwaukee also took advantage of the Marlins by grabbing Christian Yelich, and also signed Lorenzo Cain. The Brewers have one of the best lineups in baseball no one talks about, but the starting pitching is a big question mark beyond Chase Anderson.
The Pirates are positioned to overachieve if Joe Musgrove and Colin Moran perform to the top-tier of their projections, but overachieving probably means 82 wins. Cincinnati has some interesting pieces not named Joey Votto, like emerging arm Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and outfielder Jesse Winker. But it doesn’t have enough interesting pieces to win more than 80 games.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Alex Reyes (Cardinals), Nick Senzel (Reds), Jesse Winker (Reds), Mitch Keller (Pirates), Jack Flaherty (Cardinals)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Gregory Polanco (Pirates)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Luke Weaver (Cardinals), Luis Castillo (Reds)
Prior to Tommy John surgery, Reyes was viewed as the top pitching prospect in baseball. Although the Cardinals are easing him back and haven’t committed to a role, he’ll contribute somehow. Flaherty is getting a chance to make his case as a rotation pitcher now due to the injury to Adam Wainwright. Senzel is in the conversation as the best hitting prospect in baseball, and will be up before the end of the year. The Pirates will be very conservative with Keller, but he might throw so well in AA and AAA that they have no choice. Humble brag: when I attended the Pittsburgh Pirates Scout School in 2014, I ranked Keller the highest among prospects we saw.
Yes, Polanco does have a 22-homer season to his name in 2016, but he hit .258/.323/.463 that year. He’s more talented than those numbers, and followed 2016 with a rough 2017. Now in significantly better shape with increased flexibility and athleticism, he could be a 30-homer, 20-steal player. Weaver is good enough to join the Cy Young conversation if the Cardinals allow him to throw that many innings, and Castillo could be in the same boat.
15) NL WEST
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Giants
Padres
The Dodgers remain top dog in the division, but the Diamondbacks aren’t too far behind. By spending big on its bullpen, Colorado is again positioned to be a Wild Card team. San Francisco decided to get much older this offseason, and the injury to Madison Bumgarner likely takes it out of Wild Card contention. Eric Hosmer won’t make San Diego a playoff team this year, but it is on the rise. A year from now, we’ll be talking about San Diego’s farm system as the best in baseball.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Walker Buehler (Dodgers), Ryan McMahon (Rockies), Alex Verdugo (Dodgers), Luis Urias (Padres)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Jose Pirela (Padres)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Jon Gray (Rockies) (Dinelson Lamet of the Padres would have been the pick if not for an elbow issue)
Considering the Dodgers’ rotation seemingly always encounters injuries, Buehler, who touches 100 MPH, should receive a shot at some point. If the Rockies remain committed to playing McMahon, he’ll hit. Urias can’t legally drink beers, but he hit .296 in AA as a 20-year-old last year.
Pirela showed surprising power and hitting during his time with the big club last year. Don’t be surprised this year. Gray has flirted with a big-time season, and he’ll get there in 2018.
16) PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
AMERICAN LEAGUE: Astros, Yankees, Indians
WILD CARD: Red Sox, Angels
AL PENNANT: Astros over Yankees
NATIONAL LEAGUE: Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals
WILD CARD: Diamondbacks, Cardinals
NL PENNANT: Cubs over Dodgers
WORLD SERIES: Cubs over Astros
On paper, the Astros are the best team in baseball and are armed with the farm system to inject talent into the roster late or go out and get another player in the trade market if needed. However, it’s incredibly difficult to repeat as World Series champions. Since 1980, a repeat has only happened three times because often the 162-game and playoff grind combined with a hint of World Series hangover wins.
The Cubs get a full season of Jose Quintana and added Yu Darvish to a rotation that was on fumes for almost half of last season and still made it to the NLCS.
17) PROJECTED MLB AWARDS
MVP: Mike Trout (American League), Corey Seager (National League)
CY YOUNG: David Price (American League), Aaron Nola (National League)
MVP DARK HORSE: Alex Bregman (American League), Anthony Rendon (National League)
CY YOUNG DARK HORSE: Blake Snell (American League), Luke Weaver (National League)
18) This is a small sample size, but here’s the theme among Final Four teams this year: experienced guards, shooting, three-point defense, and skill.
As for picks, I’ll take Michigan to beat Villanova in the final. The experienced Wolverines have enough shooting, and run impressive half-court offense to go with the best defense remaining.
19) I’m still not over the Jesse James non-catch against the Patriots enough to discuss the NFL’s new catch rule. Is this how Cowboys fans feel about Dez Bryant?
20) Our Peleton arrives Friday. Wish me luck. If y’all don’t hear from me for a while, you can assume I either tore a muscle or fell off.
21)
22) Watched Icarus last weekend, a documentary on the Russian Olympics doping scandal. Incredible. The best documentary I’ve seen, and the amount of information the producer was able to get on the record is unlike anything you’ll see.
23) How a young woman lost her identity. Can she be found? Fascinating story from the New Yorker.
Anyway, let’s explore a few of those talking points, UT hoops and baseball, MLB’s upcoming season (prediction time), the Final Four, and more.
1) To describe our conversation during the most recent OB Podcast as, “spirited,” when the topic of talent arose is like describing Dennis Rodman as only being kind of weird. The discussion of talent, specifically on offense, does present an intriguing discussion: was the offense’s struggles last season more about coaching or talent, and is its future production next season, put in its simplest form, almost all about coaching?
Relative to other programs on its level, I see talent on the Texas offense, but not a lot. Make no mistake, there are pieces to work with at each position group, but one question seemingly reveals a lot about the offense: who is the best player?
Not as easy as you thought. Collin Johnson probably gets some votes, and maybe Lil’Jordan Humphrey too. Picking a quarterback is very difficult to justify. The same applies to the offensive line. Perhaps Daniel Young, but that also reinforces the general point.
Right now, the Texas offense isn’t loaded with talent, and most of the top-end talent is probably in its receiver group.
2) Let’s break it down by position group:
Recruiting rankings aren’t the be-all and end-all, but they generally paint an accurate image, or at the very last a place to start. So, let’s identify the number of five-star prospects, Rivals100 four-star prospects, Rivals250 four-star prospects, unranked four-star prospects, and three-star prospects among each position group using Alex Dunlap’s recent offensive depth chart projection before spring football. The 2018 class that hasn’t enrolled yet isn’t factored in.
(players identified by 2018 season age)
QUARTERBACKS
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 0
Rivals250: 3
Unranked four-star prospects: 1
Three-star prospects: 0
Sam Ehlinger (sophomore), Shane Buechele (junior), and Cameron Rising (freshman) were all Rivals250 prospects, and Casey Thompson (freshman) just missed the Rivals250 cut.
RUNNING BACKS
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 0
Rivals250: 2
Unranked four-star prospects: 0
Three-star prospects: 2
Kyle Porter (junior) and Toneil Carter (sophomore) arrived at Texas as Rivals250 prospects while Tristian Houston (junior) and Daniel Young (sophomore) were three-star prospects.
TIGHT ENDS
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 0
Rivals250: 0
Unranked four-star prospects: 1
Three-star prospects: 2
Andrew Beck (senior) and Cade Brewer (sophomore) were three-star prospects out of high school, and Reese Leitao (redshirt freshman) was a four-star prospect outside the Rivals250. Obviously, Brewer is dealing with an injury. Texas recently moved Max Cummins (two-star prospect) to tight end.
RECEIVERS
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 5
Rivals250: 0
Unranked four-star prospects: 0
Three-star prospects: 3
Jerrod Heard (arrived as a QB; senior), John Burt (senior), Devin Duvernay (junior), Collin Johnson (junior), and Brennan Eagles were all Rivals100 prospects. Lil’Jordan Humphrey (junior), Davion Curtis (sophomore), and Jordan Pouncey (redshirt freshman) arrived at Texas as three-star prospects.
OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 0
Rivals250: 3
Unranked four-star prospects: 0
Three-star prospects: 4
Two-star prospects: 1
Denzel Okafor (junior), Patrick Vahe (senior), and J.P. Urquidez (sophomore) were all rated as Rivals250 prospects. Junior college transfer Mikey Grandy (junior) was a four-star prospect while Sam Cosmi (redshirt freshman), Derek Kerstetter (sophomore), Tope Imade (sophomore), and Zach Shackelford (junior) were three-star prospects. Elijah Rodriguez (senior), a late sign years ago, was a two-star prospect.
3) IN TOTAL (27)
Five-star prospects: 0
Rivals100: 5
Rivals250: 8
Unranked four-star prospects: 2
Three-star prospects: 11
Two-star prospects: 1
As expected, a majority of the top 100 talent that arrived on campus is concentrated in one position group – receivers. Heck, all of it is. Rivals250 prospects are sprinkled throughout the other position groups with four of those prospects either being players that haven’t performed at a high level in starting opportunities, haven’t been able to get on the field, or just arrived on campus.
Even if you want to label players like Brewer, Young, and Kerstetter as underrated, it doesn’t dramatically change the presented image, and they were all true freshmen last season.
4) Does this talent discussion excuse coaching and let it off the hook? Of course not. Texas was awful on offense last season, and that falls at the feet of the coaches.
However, the relationship between coaching/development and available talent is in some ways the equivalent of football’s chicken or the egg discussion. Coaches can only work with the talent they have, and talent matters. Just look at the teams that finish atop the recruiting rankings every year. Texas wasn’t working with a bunch of no-doubt Sunday players or all-conference selections last season, and it's unclear how likely it is to do that this season too. However, there are programs that don’t sign Alabama or Clemson-type classes and still put good offenses on the field. Just look north of the Red River.
Texas didn’t maximize its talent on offense last season, clearly. But a talent maximization in 2017 turned into? Perhaps a below average offense, give or take.
5) Looking ahead, no one should expect Texas to go from zero – it was literally in the bottom 10-20 in offense last season – to 100. However, the Longhorns improving from the bottom tier to a middle tier (consistently average offense that’s at times better) would be an enormous lift because we know what the defense is capable of and how much confidence Tom Herman has in Todd Orlando.
6) Kerwin Roach II declaring for the NBA Draft without an agent isn’t a surprise. Why wouldn’t he after his junior season? This is the only offseason Roach has to take advantage of the rules, which allow players to workout for teams and receive direct NBA feedback to better make a decision about whether to stay in the draft, and where they need to improve both in college and overall.
What happens once Roach and his family receive that feedback is another question. I think he’s more likely to be at Texas as a senior than turn professional, but feedback can be taken a number of ways.
7) I’ve never encountered a high-profile recruit that put as much thought and research into his recruiting decision as Mo Bamba did. He considered about everything a young man could when making a decision, which led him to picking Texas. The top prospects that spend their summers on the AAU circuit playing in the biggest events are a pretty tight group; it’s not uncommon for players to know players two years younger and two years older. This was Bamba’s response when I asked him what he’d tell top prospects that asked about Texas:
“My message would be pretty simple: If you want to have a great relationship with your coach and you want to be told the truth, yet you don’t want to be babied, I think you should come to Texas. I think you should play for coach Smart,” he said.
Honestly is of enormous importance to Bamba. He’s been through a lot in his life, and it’s tested his trust in people, and led him to keeping a tighter circle. Honesty was what he was looking for in a program during his recruitment, what he received at Texas, and what will play a role in Bamba becoming a great ambassador and recruiter for Texas.
8) The next challenge for David Pierce and his staff is figuring out how to get the best out of Chase Shugart. The junior righthander was UT’s best starting pitcher in the fall and the preseason, by far, and appeared poised to breakout this season. While he’s had some bad luck (dumb scoring by LSU’s scorekeeper; some routine fly balls falling in for hits thanks to bad defense; 3.72 FIP compared to 5.40 ERA), he also hasn’t been nearly as sharp recently as he was to begin the season and the fall.
Should Texas move him back to the bullpen? That’s probably something Pierce and company ask themselves daily. No matter what, though, Texas needs to get his stuff back to where it was in the preseason. I’d ditch the slider, a pitch Texas added before the season, temporarily and focus more on the curve, two-seam fastball and four-seam fastball, and mixing in the changeup. Although Shugart has touched 96 MPH this season, his fastball hasn’t played up to that velocity, which is likely because it’s coming out of a 5-10 frame (lack of tilt and angle), command, and Texas has been throwing so many fastballs and sliders. Throwing backwards more often with the curve and changeup with better two-seam command could really help Shugart.
Texas needs him to get back to where he was because the pitching staff lacks depth and quality options.
9) The Longhorns are hitting .268/.386/.413 as a team, and seven regulars have an on-base percentage of .374 or better. Texas is scoring 5.77 runs per game, and is starting to get Austin Todd back to normal and after David Hamilton’s homer last night, he’s clearly rounding back into form also.
With the lineup flexibility Pierce has to use a platoon approach with part of the lineup, Texas could end up having one of its better offenses in recent seasons. It won’t always look pretty, but Texas, generally, is competing really well one through nine, is getting contributions up-and-down the order, and is capitalizing on run-scoring chances with a noticeable improvement in two-strike and two-out situational hitting.
10) MLB PREVIEW
AL EAST
Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Rays
Orioles
I’m a big believer that offense plays the biggest role in driving regular season results, and the Yankees are going to mash this year. Offense is less likely to be affected by injuries compared to starting pitching. Boston, who did add a desperately-needed power bat in J.D. Martinez, has better starting pitching, but lacks depth.
Toronto is in baseball purgatory – is it going to go for it this year, or is it going to rebuild? The Rays could contend for a Wild Card if its pitching is as good as it can be and the run-prevention follows suit. Baltimore is a mess.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Austin Hays (Orioles), Gleyber Torres (Yankees), Willy Adames (Rays)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Rafael Devers (Red Sox)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Blake Snell (Rays)
Devers is one of the best young hitters at his age I’ve ever seen, and could hit .285 with 25 homers this season. Tampa Bay fixed Snell’s mechanics late last season, and he’s been dominant in Spring Training.
11) AL CENTRAL
Indians
Twins
White Sox
Royals
Tigers
Clearly, the Indians are the class of the division, a division that then drops to an overachieving Twins team, a White Sox team waiting for all its prospect talent to graduate, and two other rebuilding teams. Cleveland is the only playoff team.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Michael Kopech (White Sox), Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox), Francisco Mejia (Indians), Eloy Jimenez (White Sox)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Nick Castellanos (Tigers)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Lucas Giolito (White Sox)
If you can’t figure it out by now, the White Sox system is loaded. Jimenez might be the best hitting prospect on the planet, and Kopech has Justin Verlander and Thor-like qualities if he can just throw strikes. As for Giolito, his release point looked tweaked, and his curve much better. Castellanos already had a breakout-type season, but he’ll be even better (30-plus homers) in 2018.
12) AL WEST
Astros
Angels
Mariners
A’s
Rangers
Like the AL Central, there is clearly one team above the rest in the AL West – the Astros. The Angels made some solid acquisitions in the offseason, and if their starting pitching can remain healthy for a change, there’s a real chance they’re a Wild Card team. However, Shohei Ohtani’s Spring Training was cringeworthy, although one should never put too much stock into Spring Training stats. Is Felix Hernandez ever going to be “King Felix” again? Unlikely. Seattle has some nice pieces, but it also had to sign 44-year-old Ichiro Suzuki for outfield depth.
The A’s will piece together a lineup that’s better than most think, but there simply isn’t a lot of quality talent on that roster. As for the Rangers, always bet the over. It’ll help you watch Matt Moore, Doug Fister, and Martin Perez.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Willie Calhoun (Rangers), Franklin Berreto (A’s)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Willie Calhoun (Rangers)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Gerrit Cole (Astros)
I am all aboard the Willie Calhoun train. He’s going to hit .280 or better and hit bombs too. Heck, he might hit 30 bombs this year. Picking Cole as a breakout pitcher is cheating, but here’s my logic: the Astros are going to unlock him by throwing more breaking balls than he ever has. Cole came from a fastball-heavy franchise, and will now be pitching for one that uses breaking balls more than anyone.
13) NL EAST
Nationals
Phillies
Mets
Braves
Marlins
Another division with one team clearly better than the rest. With the addition of Jake Arrietta and the aggressive move to play top prospect Scott Kingery now, the Phillies moved ahead of the Mets. Speaking of the Mets, their pitchers better stay healthy and miss bats because the outfield defense could be a disaster.
The Braves are loaded with young talent, but they need another year. Meanwhile, the Marlins have no direction, traded their best players, and I bet you can’t name more than two pitchers in their rotation.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Ronald Acuna, Jr. (Braves), Lewis Brinson (Marlins), Victor Robles (Nationals), Scott Kingery (Phillies), J.P. Crawford (Phillies)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Ronald Acuna, Jr. (Braves), Scott Kingery (Phillies)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Luiz Gohara (Braves)
Acuna was the best player in Braves camp, but was sent down to delay free agency another year. Meanwhile, the Phillies said “screw it” and kept Kingery on the big league club, and was able to sign him to an extension. Back to Acuna: he’s the best prospect in baseball, and a future 30-30 player. Heck, he’ll hit 20 homers and steal 25 bags at the MLB level this year. Some young hitters mash the ball so hard it sounds like gunshots off the bat. Acuna will send some people ducking for cover during batting practice.
Brinson is the everyday centerfielder in Miami and a candidate to hit 20 homers with 25 steals while Robles is kind of like a lighter version of Acuna. Gohara has the ability to miss bats and emerge as one of the Braves’ best starters if he can stay healthy and keep his body in shape.
14) NL CENTRAL
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Pirates
Reds
Finally, a division with some competition. Although Chicago is the clear pick, the Cardinals and Brewers aren’t far behind. St. Louis was able to capitalize on the Miami firesale and grab Marcell Ozuna. Plus, it’s loaded with young arms in the rotation. Milwaukee also took advantage of the Marlins by grabbing Christian Yelich, and also signed Lorenzo Cain. The Brewers have one of the best lineups in baseball no one talks about, but the starting pitching is a big question mark beyond Chase Anderson.
The Pirates are positioned to overachieve if Joe Musgrove and Colin Moran perform to the top-tier of their projections, but overachieving probably means 82 wins. Cincinnati has some interesting pieces not named Joey Votto, like emerging arm Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and outfielder Jesse Winker. But it doesn’t have enough interesting pieces to win more than 80 games.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Alex Reyes (Cardinals), Nick Senzel (Reds), Jesse Winker (Reds), Mitch Keller (Pirates), Jack Flaherty (Cardinals)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Gregory Polanco (Pirates)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Luke Weaver (Cardinals), Luis Castillo (Reds)
Prior to Tommy John surgery, Reyes was viewed as the top pitching prospect in baseball. Although the Cardinals are easing him back and haven’t committed to a role, he’ll contribute somehow. Flaherty is getting a chance to make his case as a rotation pitcher now due to the injury to Adam Wainwright. Senzel is in the conversation as the best hitting prospect in baseball, and will be up before the end of the year. The Pirates will be very conservative with Keller, but he might throw so well in AA and AAA that they have no choice. Humble brag: when I attended the Pittsburgh Pirates Scout School in 2014, I ranked Keller the highest among prospects we saw.
Yes, Polanco does have a 22-homer season to his name in 2016, but he hit .258/.323/.463 that year. He’s more talented than those numbers, and followed 2016 with a rough 2017. Now in significantly better shape with increased flexibility and athleticism, he could be a 30-homer, 20-steal player. Weaver is good enough to join the Cy Young conversation if the Cardinals allow him to throw that many innings, and Castillo could be in the same boat.
15) NL WEST
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Giants
Padres
The Dodgers remain top dog in the division, but the Diamondbacks aren’t too far behind. By spending big on its bullpen, Colorado is again positioned to be a Wild Card team. San Francisco decided to get much older this offseason, and the injury to Madison Bumgarner likely takes it out of Wild Card contention. Eric Hosmer won’t make San Diego a playoff team this year, but it is on the rise. A year from now, we’ll be talking about San Diego’s farm system as the best in baseball.
TOP PROSPECTS TO FOLLOW: Walker Buehler (Dodgers), Ryan McMahon (Rockies), Alex Verdugo (Dodgers), Luis Urias (Padres)
BREAKOUT POSITION PLAYER: Jose Pirela (Padres)
BREAKOUT PITCHER: Jon Gray (Rockies) (Dinelson Lamet of the Padres would have been the pick if not for an elbow issue)
Considering the Dodgers’ rotation seemingly always encounters injuries, Buehler, who touches 100 MPH, should receive a shot at some point. If the Rockies remain committed to playing McMahon, he’ll hit. Urias can’t legally drink beers, but he hit .296 in AA as a 20-year-old last year.
Pirela showed surprising power and hitting during his time with the big club last year. Don’t be surprised this year. Gray has flirted with a big-time season, and he’ll get there in 2018.
16) PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
AMERICAN LEAGUE: Astros, Yankees, Indians
WILD CARD: Red Sox, Angels
AL PENNANT: Astros over Yankees
NATIONAL LEAGUE: Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals
WILD CARD: Diamondbacks, Cardinals
NL PENNANT: Cubs over Dodgers
WORLD SERIES: Cubs over Astros
On paper, the Astros are the best team in baseball and are armed with the farm system to inject talent into the roster late or go out and get another player in the trade market if needed. However, it’s incredibly difficult to repeat as World Series champions. Since 1980, a repeat has only happened three times because often the 162-game and playoff grind combined with a hint of World Series hangover wins.
The Cubs get a full season of Jose Quintana and added Yu Darvish to a rotation that was on fumes for almost half of last season and still made it to the NLCS.
17) PROJECTED MLB AWARDS
MVP: Mike Trout (American League), Corey Seager (National League)
CY YOUNG: David Price (American League), Aaron Nola (National League)
MVP DARK HORSE: Alex Bregman (American League), Anthony Rendon (National League)
CY YOUNG DARK HORSE: Blake Snell (American League), Luke Weaver (National League)
18) This is a small sample size, but here’s the theme among Final Four teams this year: experienced guards, shooting, three-point defense, and skill.
As for picks, I’ll take Michigan to beat Villanova in the final. The experienced Wolverines have enough shooting, and run impressive half-court offense to go with the best defense remaining.
19) I’m still not over the Jesse James non-catch against the Patriots enough to discuss the NFL’s new catch rule. Is this how Cowboys fans feel about Dez Bryant?
20) Our Peleton arrives Friday. Wish me luck. If y’all don’t hear from me for a while, you can assume I either tore a muscle or fell off.
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22) Watched Icarus last weekend, a documentary on the Russian Olympics doping scandal. Incredible. The best documentary I’ve seen, and the amount of information the producer was able to get on the record is unlike anything you’ll see.
23) How a young woman lost her identity. Can she be found? Fascinating story from the New Yorker.
