Is going for it on 4th gambling or science?

[westx]

Herman has stated on a couple of occasions in the past how the studies show that kicking field goals don’t prove to be advantageuos in the long run (paraphrasing). I am guessing that some field goals are missed and coming away with only 3 points is not enough to make a difference. I don’t know. What about momentum change when it is turned over on downs? Longhorndrdew mentioned that it makes sense when teams with good defenses do it. Is that factored in? I am not sure Saban makes it a practice and he is the gold standard, imo. I really don’t which study shows that and how it is determined, but I am interested in learning. Anybody aware of how this is determined. I like Herman a ton, but I don’t understand the philosophy.

 

[clob94]

It's not math. I mean it is---- but it's also not. Yes, I can mathematically prove to you the difference in outcomes on a binary test where "this" equals "that". And over an elongated enough period of time with the data I have in hand, I can show you where going for it has a slightly larger propensity for winning that kicking a FG.

But here's what math doesn't take into account:


Raw-
Human-
Emotion.


We bipedals are complicated individuals. Very complicated. And homoerectus-- well, we have emotions. And driving downfield only to be thwarted on 3rd down isn't always a bad thing. Putting some points on the board, if only just 3, is sometimes an emotional victory. Just what the offense needs to muster their emotions and realize they can do "better next time".

Conversely, driving all the way down the field to within easy kicking range, and going for it--- has a price. If you FAIL--- you have a sense of defeat. That defeat, if you're not mentally tough, can haunt you on the next drive-- and subsequently, on every other drive.


This is why football is a game of inches and momentum.

 

[HornsRuleU]

Yes, football is a game of inches and momentum.

It's also a game of strategy, and I think it's better if the opposing coach and team don't know what you're going to do.

 

[FlourBluffHorn]

Ya gotta take every point ya got a chance to, if ya got a good kicker then kick the shit outa FG, but, if he missing some it lowers the confidence ya have in him thus go for it, you should only go for it when ya need 1 or 2 yds, any team if they are good is good for at least 2 yds, if ya don't have some shit head calling the plays, the Power I used to be the staple for going for it, momentum can help but, it comes down to the play calling

 

[diadevic]

Here’s the story of the Arkansas coach who never punts, and onside kicks after every touchdown. Claims it’s statistically based - and has won 5 state titles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.americanfootballinternational.com/team-never-punts/amp/

 

[4MNChampsHorn]

Gambling. FGs = points. Failing to convert 4th downs = no points.

 

[4MNChampsHorn]

Here’s the story of the Arkansas coach who never punts, and onside kicks after every touchdown. Claims it’s statistically based - and has won 5 state titles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.americanfootballinternational.com/team-never-punts/amp/

That’s great. However, that’s Arkansas high school ball. Would that work in the NFL? No. NCAA? No. Texas high school 4A, 5A, etc., football? Probably not.

 

[Bwilk55]

Going for it on 4th down in FG is a tricky decision. I think it is more about the feel that a coach has for the situation. "Do we have a play that will for sure pick this up? Do we have a good enough kicker to make this for sure", etc"

What I do think is backed up by the numbers more so is going for it on the plus side of the field when you are out of FG range. There were a few times we punted from the 40 instead of going for it that surprised me yesterday. Today's game, especially in the big 12, is all about maximizing possessions and punting in that situation is ceding a possession when the down side is the other team gets the ball at the 40 and at times the out come of the punt is that they get it at the 25. You are giving up a scoring opportunity for a field position change of 15 yards (different story if you have a Michael Dickson punting and you can pin them deep).

 

[4MNChampsHorn]

Dicker can make 52 yard FGs

 

[westx]

Here’s the story of the Arkansas coach who never punts, and onside kicks after every touchdown. Claims it’s statistically based - and has won 5 state titles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.americanfootballinternational.com/team-never-punts/amp/

Thanks for posting, man. I am going to try and look up that study from David Romer of Cal Berkley that was mentioned. If it makes sense, then I will shut my complaining mouth.

 

[UTGrad87]

Going for it on 4th down is like gambling on a fart after age 50. After it's over. . . you either end up with a big smile on your face . . . Or an embarrassing frown.

 

[weevilcatch]

Here’s the story of the Arkansas coach who never punts, and onside kicks after every touchdown. Claims it’s statistically based - and has won 5 state titles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.americanfootballinternational.com/team-never-punts/amp/

Didn’t they get curb stomped by a mediocre Texas HS recently?

 

[bschroed21]

What I have a hard time reconciling is the approach of not taking points with an easy field goal early in a game, instead choosing to gamble. . . But when we’re up by two scores and get a turnover or defensive stop early or mid-fourth quarter, we go into a turtle shell and continually give the ball back to the other team and dare them to score. All offensive scheming seems to go out the window. OSU is stacking the box and we’re running right into it repeatedly, only to put our tired and injured defense back on the field. That being said, if we don’t muff two punts, I’m probably not be complaining.

 

[clob94]

Going for it on 4th down is like gambling on a fart after age 50. After it's over. . . you either end up with a big smile on your face . . . Or an embarrassing frown.

I'm not going to say that this is your best post ever--- but it has earned a spot in the top 10.

 

[HornsRuleU]

Here’s the story of the Arkansas coach who never punts, and onside kicks after every touchdown. Claims it’s statistically based - and has won 5 state titles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.americanfootballinternational.com/team-never-punts/amp/

I like it, somewhat. If you onside kick every time, your team gets a heck of a lot better at onside kicking. Your opponent probably hasn't returned onside kicks much -- except in practice the week before playing you.

But not punting when it's 4th and long??? That's hard to accept.

Another problem is doing the same thing every time. Don't be so predictable. At least have a non-onsider once in awhile.

 

[2300 Nueces]

Michael Griffin on Game Day said it very well, "a turnover on downs is the same as a fumble or interception". He is correct. I agree on 4th < 2yds to go inside the opponents 40 unless it's late in the game and 3 pts makes it a 2 score deficit for the opposition. With Dicker, I am kicking anything over 4th and 2 yds to go due to the shortened field and kicking the field goal always at 4th > 2yds to go inside of 55 yards for FG.

 

[DHHorn]

I was fine with the decision to go for it there. The play call was bad though.