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One thing each Longhorn needs to prove at the combine next week:
- DL T'Vondre Sweat - He has to prove he has his weight under control. Whether fans like it, or care, or anything else, it doesn't really matter. From an objective standpoint, his weight wasn't a problem in 2023 as a Longhorn. The guy won the Outland Trophy, lined up as a running back at times, caught touchdowns and generally did not wear down and get gassed despite his behemoth size. It's easy to wonder what the exact problem is with Sweat's size PLUS being able to move and be effective the way he was. If anything it should be something on the "pros" side of the old ledger. Comparing Sweat's pad-level and conditioning through drives to even another good recent Texas DL in Keondre Coburn is a night-and-day exercise.
But this doesn't take into account the paranoia of NFL scouts and their constant fears that they'll be "blamed" for bad intel on players or for not being discriminating enough in their pinpointing of possible issues down the road. T'Vondre Sweat didn't weigh in at the Senior Bowl and that kind of thing seems like nothing to you but it gives a scout nightmares, and brings the issue into closer focus for greater scrutiny. His need to weigh in at somewhere around the 362 he reportedly played at during the 2023 season at Texas has little to do with the fact that the NFL thinks he's too big. Whoever said the NFL didn't like big players? It has to do with the fact that the NFL wants proof that he takes his body and its constitution seriously.
- DL Byron Murphy - He's being projected in early mock drafts to go in the first 12 to 15 picks of round one and is sure to be the first Longhorn off the board. The fact that NFL.com guys like Daniel Jeremiah and Lance Zeirlein, etc. rank him in this tier tells us something important: Byron Murphy has a true, consensus round 1 grade from the general scouting community. In every NFL draft, 32 players will go in the first round, but usually there are only about 15-19 or so that have what everyone considers a bona-fide "round 1 grade." Sure, some teams will have a round 1 grade on a player that another team won't, but the big dogs of the class are actually usually pretty well-known.
For this to hold, Murphy is getting excellent explosive testing baked into his projected profile. If he tests very well, it will not necessarily elevate his stock as it is expected. An old adage in scouting is not to "double-count" positive attributes. You have profiled a player as being very fast and explosive. When he tests that way, you can't count it as even more points on the pros side of the ledger. However, a failure to test well could hurt him as it will be unexpected, and, again, evaluators love stuff that makes them feel like they know what they have and don't like things that make them question their priors. You'd think he'd be happy with a 40-time somewhere in the 4.8-range, a vertical of at least 30-32 inches, and a sub-7.5 second three cone.
- RB Jonathon Brooks - He's not going to be able to prove much except that he's recovering well from his ACL surgery. The medicals are more important than ANY underwear olympics stuff for any player anyway. Nothing else can take you completely out of consideration like a bad bill of health. Of course the interviews with be super-important, too, but Brooks is a chill guy and should do great in those. Brooks had his surgery with the surgeon who is a team doctor for the Cowboys, so Dallas definitely has the best current intel on his exact situation ... and the Cowboys only currently have pint-sized Deuce Vaughn on contract coming into 2024 ... it could be an interesting thing to monitor with Dallas' late-second round pick.
- RB Keilan Robinson - He's got to come in and blow the doors off the place somehow ... and it feels like his easiest way to do so would be by blazing his 40-yard dash. Teams will see him as a special teams and gadget-type weapon and I think for him to be drafted, he's going to need to show a level of speed that can't be denied ... something like a 4.35-second 40-yard dash would probably do the trick.
- DB Ryan Watts - Same thing with Watts. Except instead of showing he's super-fast, he needs to show he's not slow. At times in 2023, he looked slow and Jim Nagy's prediction (Senior Bowl Director) this preseason on the OB YouTube that Watts will need to play safety at the next level has proven correct. He'll be working as a safety in Indy, just like he did in Frisco a few weeks back at the Shrine Bowl. Now, from people on the ground, he actually looked fine in practices. In fact, on Day 1, he registered the highest on-field speed of any DB at the event at just under 21 mph via Zebra tracking technology. If he can somehow crack into the 4.4s, even the high 4.4s in the 40, it will make it a lot more likely that he'll hear his name called in Detroit a few months from now. It would go a really long way.
- TE Ja'Tavion Sanders - If we're talking about what guys need to prove, well, JT Sanders only goal should be to prove he's the Top TE in the draft. It's not an easy task against the film that Brock Bowers (UGA) has put up, but JTS is the basic consensus TE2 at this point, with some outlets actually having him ranked as TE1. Texas fans know what an athlete Sanders is, and no one who follows the team closely would flinch to hear that he lit Lucas Oil Stadium on fire with a monster day. We're talking the kind of day that leaves no doubt. A 40 time somewhere in the low 4.5's (I'm not sure if he's capable of that or not, to be honest) would put him around 95th percentile among TEs and force a TE1 conversation if Bowers doesn't perform as explosively. I think it would take that kind of 95th-percentile-ish testing across the board explosively to really cement a narrative that the TE1 in the class is actually an honest-to-goodness discussion. We're talking a 38-40" vertical, a 3-cone somewhere around 6.8 seconds, and a broad jump of 125-127". JT's gotta jump outta the gym.
- LB Jaylan Ford and WR Jordan Whittington - You may wonder why I've lumped these two together and the reason is they both missed the Senior Bowl. The two Texas invites who stood to gain the most from the event didn't make it and scouts will want to know they are fine physically. Both are workman-like players who should be drafted, and who knows ... maybe Whittington will test really well; he's a heck of an athlete. I don't foresee Ford blowing the place up with his athleticism, but in the end, I think Ford gets drafted first. These guys need to let everyone know they are fine physically and let every team they get an official interview with know that they are willing and ready to contribute in any way possible, especially on special teams.
- OT Christian Jones and WR Adonai Mitchell - Both of these guys fall into the same bucket for me, because both will have the opportunity to showcase the really nice attributes of their games during the on-field portion of the drills. I could be wrong, but I don't think either of these players will test through the roof. They should both be fine amongst their peers, but I don't envision either one standing out majorly. If they did so, it would obviously be a giant boon.
Jones has good feet and he really did most of his "proving" at the Senior Bowl where he had a phenomenal week. Teams will like getting to work him out in an on-field setting up close to look at his drops, examine his balance and ability to move. Adonai Mitchell is a gamer who makes the receiving portion of the game look easy. He's going to do really well showing off his ability to track the football and adjust to throws (especially the deeper routes) that could be a little bit errant due to not having any previous connection with the QBs who'll be throwing the balls to him. I expect both of these guys to do things in the on-field portion that makes the guys like Daniel Jeremiah up in the booth point out the football utility of the drill.
- WR Xavier Worthy - This one is a lot like Keilan Robinson. Xavier Worthy's superpower is -- without question -- his dynamite long speed coupled with his ability to go 0-60 at a Ferrari-like rate. I think a high 4.3-ish 40-time is already being baked in for Worthy, who is a little more of a polarizing prospect at this point than some might think. Lance Zeirlein currently has Worthy as his WR17, which I think is a little cockamamie, but goes to show there is not a consensus out there that he's going to be a truly great or even really good prospect. However, as we've seen in the case of John Ross, Henry Ruggs and similar types of players, an absolutely blazing 40-time gets you into the first round. IF he can do the unthinkable and go sub-4.3, he'll probably hear his name called on night 1 in Detroit.
