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Just a Bit Outside: Can the 2023 Longhorns be great? Which competitions won't be settled Saturday? (via Salty South Fishing Charters)

Travis Galey

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Aug 12, 2012
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The energy and excitement ahead of Saturday’s Orange/White game is building. You can feel it in the air. It’s the first true glimpse at the 2023 Texas Longhorn football team.



Every year I get excited about the spring game and every year I come away feeling – underwhelmed.

Let’s face it, spring games are typically nothing more than glorified practices. Oh sure, there will be plenty to see and react to. Orangebloods will have more than its fair share of overreactions. The OB staff will write tens of thousands of words about what we see on Saturday. In fact, I predict there will be at least one play that we’ll talk about all the way up until the first kick off against Rice (like this Ewers to Neyor deep ball last spring … 1:30 into the video).

Still, when it’s all said and done, there will be a lot about this team that we just won’t know yet.

“We are not a finished product,” head coach Steve Sarkisian said Tuesday. “But I feel good about the progress we’ve made.”

POSITION BATTLES …

Sarkisian talked last week about how the depth chart will feel pretty settled coming out of the spring game. But he also admits that there are multiple positions where the battles will continue well into fall camp.

QB2:

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Quinn Ewers has locked up the QB1 competition leaving the real quarterback battle to see who will back him up.

Saturday will be our first glimpse at the first family of quarterbacking’s scion – Arch Manning. Manning arrived on campus with a name recognition factor that most politicians would kill for. He also arrived with expectations that he will be able to live up to the accomplishments that his famous uncles and grandfather achieved during their playing days. That’s a lot to live up to. But by all accounts, he’s come in ready to work and it shows.

“Arch, you know, 13 practices into college football, is performing well,” said Sarkisian.

The key part of that sentence is the number 13. Thirteen practices is not a lot (he’ll get one more practice Thursday and then the spring game Saturday will be number 15). But during those 13 practices, Manning has at least pulled even in the battle with Maalik Murphy for the QB2 battle. Manning and Muprhy have been splitting the second-team reps during practices.

Murphy, it should be noted, has been on campus for a year longer than Manning, but it’s not like he has a lot more practices under his belt. Murphy missed all of last spring (and a good bit of fall camp) recovering from injuries. He also missed the first week of this spring’s practices in rehab.

Still, Murphy has a cannon for an arm and the natural leadership skills to rally the guys around him. Those two traits alone make him a competitor in the race.

“We’re now getting a full dose of Maalik. I feel good about him,” said Sarkisian.

HANDICAPPING THE RACE:
Heading into the spring, I thought Murphy would be the backup allowing Manning to redshirt this season. I now believe that Manning will win the backup job. Every time I hear that Manning is splitting the second-team reps I think of the old saying, “if he’s even, he’s leavin’.”

Still, this is a battle that Sark absolutely wants to carry all the way to fall camp. It does him no good to go ahead and declare Arch as the winner – giving Murphy a lot to think about with the transfer portal. It also doesn’t do either of the quarterbacks any good – allowing them to stop pushing.

RUNNING BACK:

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Sarkisian loves to talk about the fact that he’s had a 1,000-yard back every year he’s been a head coach. If he’s going to keep the streak going, he’s going to need to settle on a RB who can carry most of the load this season. But good luck trying to guess which of the talented running backs will emerge as the workhorse.

Keilan Robinson, CJ Baxter, Jonathon Brooks, Jaydon Blue and Savion Red are all competing for carries.

Jonathon Brooks is the RB that most expected to win the job. However, he’s been recovering from a surgery missing the winter workouts and a good bit of spring practices as well. But Brooks has already shown Sarkisian he’s able to perform in actual games.

“The one thing I’ll credit Jonathon for is every time we put him out there, he’s performed,” said Sarkisian. “Even in the bowl game when he was somewhat limited, we knew he had to have the surgery upcoming, he scores two touchdowns and makes a really big play on a screen and makes people miss. And so he’s been doing that for us over two years.

“I just think he’s got a natural feel for playing the game of football. He’s a natural runner with the ball in his hands. He catches the ball. So I think for him, his physical development has been one that we’ve been kind of working with him on to get him ready if it’s called up for him to have an increased volume of carries.”

HANICAPPING THE RACE:
The biggest reason this race won’t be settled this spring is that running back is the position that requires the least amount of work ahead of time to be ready to play. The fact that Brooks wasn’t taking a ton of carries this spring won’t impact him. He’ll be able to make up any lost ground in the fall. The fact that Baxter is a true freshman and an early enrollee isn’t that big of a deal. He’s already shown flashes of his ability this spring and given the summer and fall camp are still ahead, he’ll have every chance to stake his own claim. The fact that Jaydon Blue is often a forgotten figure among fans is irrelevant. He’s shown the coaches this spring that he is still talented and if he can carry that over to the fall then he’ll have his shot.

I will say, I don’t really count Keilan Robinson and Savion Red in the group who could end up being the bellcow back. Perhaps that’s a mistake on my part but they both feel like they’re going to have specialized roles to play on this team as opposed to every down RBs. Again, I could be mistaken about that. Certainly Robinson carried most of the load in the Alamo Bowl, but I wonder how much of that had to do with Jonathon Brooks’ injury? As for Red, I am really excited to see him play this Saturday. The comparisons to Deebo Samuel are obviously premature, but I understand the comps. Red has a similar body build and skillset (having also been a receiver). I imagine Sark is scheming up special plays for Red that utilize abilities. I just wouldn’t expect to see a lot of those put on tape during the spring game.

At the end of the day, I’m betting the job will be Brooks’ to lose when the team reconvenes for fall camp – with a big dose of Baxter behind him.

OFFENSIVE GUARD:

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The majority of the offensive line is set and ready to go. Kelvin Banks and Christian Jones are the best tackle combo the Horns have had in many years. Jake Majors has been the locked in starter at center since he arrived on campus and that is not likely to change. Hayden Conner has almost certainly solidified his position at left guard. But who will play right guard is anyone’s guess.

This position took a hit when last year’s starter, Cole Hutson, got injured and was out for the spring. That opened the door for DJ Campbell to step in. Campbell was pushing Hutson for playing time toward the end of last season. However, Campbell is now injured as well and will miss Saturday’s scrimmage. Enter Cam Williams.

“I’ve been impressed with Cam,” said Sarkisian. “He’s gotten himself in the best physical shape we’ve seen him in since he’s been here. He moves really well for a big man. He’s light on his feet but he’s physical and he’s so big that when he gets to the second level, he can cover people up.”

Williams was expected to take over at right tackle before Jones declared he would be returning for a final season. Since then, Williams has been cross-training at right tackle and right guard.

“There’s nuances when you move from tackle to guard,” said Sarkisian. “Those are the things that he’s kind of learning on the job as the days go by.”

Sarkisian said earlier this spring that he would start the best five offensive linemen, period. He then talked about his experience with Evan Neal at Alabama who played guard until the tackles in front of him moved on to the NFL. Neal then stepped in at tackle and was ready to go (until he himself was drafted into the NFL).

In other words, the fact that Cam Williams is a more natural tackle is irrelevant. If he is the fifth best offensive lineman on the team, and can show he can play guard as well as tackle, he will win the job.

HANDICAPPING THE RACE:
It does not bode well for Hutson and Campbell that Cam Williams is getting to show what he can do. I think Williams is more athletic than those guys (with bigger size). This feels like his time to step in and stake a claim to a starting position. Could that open the door for some more movement along the offensive line? Perhaps. Maybe Campbell moves to the left guard? Maybe Hutson or Hayden Conner take over at center? I really don’t know. But these different line variations will play out on Saturday and well into fall camp as well before a starting five is settled. The good news is, there is, for the first time in a long, long time, quality depth along the offensive line.

EDGE RUSHER:

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Sarkisian laid out two goals for this offseason to make the team better. The first was to improve the passing game on offense. The second was to impact the quarterback on defense.

Barryn Sorrell was the breakout revelation from last season at edge rusher with 5.5 sacks. He will definitely be one of the starters. But the second starter position is definitely up for grabs and will not be determined this weekend.

Justice Finkley is the other starter, for now. The sophomore from Alabama has shown some skill. However, he’s also undersized at 6-2, 250 pounds.

Ethan Burke has been the name that has popped up the most this spring and he will definitely end up playing a lot of snaps this season whether he wins the starting job or not.

J’Mond Tapp and Colton Vasek are also competing for playing time.

However, while setting the edge in the run game is a critical role of an edge rusher – rushing the quarterback is the primary job (it’s in the name). So it doesn’t bode well for any of these guys that when Sarkisian was asked Tuesday who is doing the best job of rushing the passer, none of the edge rushers popped into his mind.

"I think one guy that stands out to me that at times I feel like he's unblockable is Byron Murphy,” said Sarkisian. “That's internal pressure, but this guy is so active, he's so strong, he's so quick, and he's very smart. He has presented some real issues. I think Anthony Hill, anytime that he can present opportunities to rush the passer, he's an issue that way. Those two guys are the first two that stand out to me that I feel like whenever their number and their opportunity presents itself, they find their way back there."

HANDICAPPING THE RACE:
Edge rusher is a position that you can bet the Texas staff will be monitoring the portal very closely for. Sarkisian laid out what it is, in general, that the staff is looking for when hitting the portal.

“We’re very specific when we go into the portal,” said Sarkisian. “We look at it because we feel like there’s a potential need there. Sometimes things come up where for a variety of reasons, at a specific position, where maybe you have some attrition because of transfers.

“Maybe you just don’t have the right depth, maybe we didn’t recruit the right way and now all of a sudden it feels like there could be a potential void. It may not be a void right now but if you’re an injury away, it can become a void.”

Edge rusher feels like a position where depth, especially quality depth, would be welcomed. The problem is, quality depth at the edge just doesn’t end up in the portal all that often. If a guy can rush the passer, he usually ends up in the NFL before he ends up playing the portal game.

That’s why, if I were a betting man, I would expect Finkley and Burke to continue to battle it out for the starting position into the fall and then we’ll see a rotation between those two guys with almost even splits.

JUST HOW GOOD IS UT FOOTBALL?

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Sarkisian said Tuesday that he was pretty happy with where this team is heading into the spring game. But he may have been underselling just how good he thinks they really are.

Sark appeared on “The Pivot” podcast with former NFL players Ryan Clark, Fred Taylor and Channing Crowder and he gushed about what he’s seen from his squad.

“I was just telling my brother-in-law the other day, I said, ‘this looks like my team,’” an enthused Sarkisian told the guys. “I said it feels and looks like my team, the way the players talk, the way they act, the way they move, the way they run, how we practice, the speed, the tempo, all those things going on. Okay, now we’re about ready to go. This is what it’s supposed to look like.”

Sarkisian certainly knows what championship teams look like after spending time at Alabama and USC. So when Sark says this team looks like what a team is supposed to look like, you take note. (Side note, it was fun to hear him talk about the national championship game between his USC team and Vince Young’s Texas team. I was particularly interested to hear him say that USC knew it would be vulnerable on defense.)

Sark went on to talk about what it will take to beat Alabama, in Tuscaloosa, on September 9.

“I think the experience on our team matters this year,” said Sarkisian. “To beat the Alabamas and Georgias of the world you’ve got to be good up front, which I think we are. You’ve got to have playmakers on the perimeter, which I believe we have. And you’ve got to have a quarterback. You know, it’s the most important position in sports for a reason. We’re fortunate to have more than one and I think that’s what it takes.

“In the end, I think it’s going to be our composure and our experience late in games to go finish those tight ball games. We learned, kind of how to do that last year. Now we’ve really got to take that next step this year.”

I, and most of us on the Orangebloods staff, feel like this is a team that should – at a minimum – compete for the Big 12 title. It will be a disappointment if UT is not at least playing in the game. Where they go from there remains to be seen. But if Texas is playing in the Big 12 championship game then you can expect there to be chatter about UT making the playoffs.

Is Texas ready to be a playoff team? We’ll get our first glimpse at just how talented the Longhorns are when they take the field for the Orange and White game this weekend.

JUST HOW GOOD IS UT BASEBALL?

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We are nearly halfway through conference play in baseball and I still don’t have a good idea of what the ceiling is for this year’s Longhorn team. I’m 100-percent confident the floor is postseason baseball. I’m pretty confident that includes being a regional host. I’m less confident, but think that it’s entirely possible that UT could be a top eight seed and a Super Regional host. But what then?

I don’t have any confidence that this is a national championship level squad. It has come a long way since its opening games against LSU, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, but I still don’t see it at that level yet. (Frankly, I’m not sure any team is at LSU’s level. The Tigers seem like the clear cream of the crop right now.)

So what would you consider a success this year? Is just making it to Omaha good enough? What if they make it there but go 2-and-que? That has never been acceptable at UT before, but is it ok considering how young this team is?

I just don’t see this team as nationally elite. Of course, we’re still two months away from Omaha and a lot could change between now and then.

PLAYING AT HOME IN THE POSTSEASON …

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The surest path to Omaha goes through Austin. The Longhorns are 21-3 at home but 4-4 on the road.

Last season I chronicled how getting to 40 wins all but assures Texas a chance to host a regional.

Over the last four seasons, only five teams from a Power 5 conference have won 40 games (including conference tournament play) and failed to get selected as a host site.

2018:
Louisville (45-19)

2019:
Michigan (41-18)
NC State (42-17)

2021:
NONE

2022:
Wake Forest (40-17-1)
Rutgers (44-15 – also the only team to not be selected for postseason play)

You don’t have to absolutely win 40 games to host a regional (seven teams were selected to be regional hosts last season with less than 40 wins after conference tournaments). However, getting to 40 almost guarantees you will be playing at home. Getting to 45 wins (including the conference tournament) will almost guarantee a top eight seed.

Texas currently sits at 24-11 on the season, which is a .686 winning percentage. In order to get to 40 wins, they’ll need to go 16-5 over the final 21 games which comes out to a .761 winning percentage. In other words, UT is going to need to step up from its current win rate if it is going to get to 40. The good news is that Texas’ remaining schedule is pretty cushy.

NON-CONFERENCE
Abilene Christian
Texas Southern
UT Arlington
San Jose State (three games)

CONFERENCE (all three game series):
Baylor (away)
OU (home)
TCU (away)
Kansas (away)
West Virginia (home)

That’s 12 games at home with nine on the road. Unfortunately for UT, the toughest series left on their schedule (TCU) is on the road in Fort Worth. Kansas could be trickier than we give it credit for as well. Still, 16-5 is well within range.

For the record, the Horns were 42-19 last season and were tabbed as the 9-seed. That meant they had to go on the road to play East Carolina in the super regional. That ended up being a brutally tough series in a very hostile environment. Texas won the series but head coach David Pierce has said multiple times that he believes his team was drained after getting past East Carolina and didn’t have a lot left in the tank by the time they made it to Omaha. UT then lost two straight in Omaha … the first time the Horns ever went 2-and-Que in the College World Series.

KUDOS TO COACH PIERCE …

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Repeating last year’s fate with this year’s team would be a much bigger accomplishment for Pierce. This year’s team just isn’t as good as last year’s team. Eight players from last year’s squad are now earning paychecks as professionals. Their replacements are younger and probably don’t have as high a ceiling as their predecessors. That’s what makes what this team is doing this year so much more impressive.

I said coming into this season that if Pierce can win with all of the turnover he had from last year’s team that it will be a very impressive accomplishment. He’s well on his way to winning another Big 12 Coach of the Year award … and it will be well earned.
 
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