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It was a chilly night in Seattle in late October and the Washington Huskies season was on the line. But these Huskies have ice water in their veins.
The Huskies were down 7-6 with eight minutes to go in the game and Arizona State driving for insurance points. But on fourth-and-3 from the 12 yard line, Sun Devil coach Kenny Dillingham decided to go for it instead of taking the three points.
The pressure was on the Washington defense to step up.
"Don't blink, don't flinch," said Washington CB Mishael Powell about the defensive mindset in that moment.
Powell didn’t flinch. He stepped in front of a Trenton Bourguet pass and took the ball back 98 yards to lead UW to a 15-7 victory – saving the season.
As much as we like to talk about the culture of the Texas Longhorns helping them win games this season, their opponents in the College Football Playoffs semifinal can say the same thing.
Time and time again this season, the Huskies have stepped up when the game was on the line. Whether it was the Powell interception in October, three fourth-down stops against Oregon in their first matchup or the another fourth-down stop against Oregon State in November.
"We had to find a way to win and put the ball in the end zone. We didn't do it as much as we wanted to today, but it was about finding a way to win,” said Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. after the 22-20 win over the Beavers. "The defense made big-time stops when we needed it the most."
Fox Sports analyst Chris Petersen has watched his former team closely and says the Husky defense, which ranks low in just about every statistical category, is tough when it counts.
“I think our defense is so interesting, and in a lot of ways maligned, because I don’t know if I’ve seen a defense that makes more plays when a play is truly needed than this defense,” Petersen told Brock and Damon Huard on the Brock & Salk podcast. “You can go ahead and compare the stats and all that … and if something ever epitomized ‘stats are for losers,’ it’s this defense. Because if they need to get a turnover, if they need to get a fourth-down stop, if they need to get a three-and-out and the game is on the line, they seem to come through almost every time. And it’s the most interesting defense because they just come through … Somebody is going to have to come up with the play of the game and it’s going to come up probably inside those three minutes or something.”
It’s not just the defense that has stepped up when it has been needed. Head coach Kalen DeBoer, who is the AP national coach of the year, saved the season with a ballsy call on a fourth and one play against Washington State.
"I wanted to go out and not be crazy, but I wanted to make sure we had the ball to win the game," DeBoer said.
Some may have called the play crazy, but it worked. A few plays after picking up that conversion, Washington kicker Grady Gross nailed a 42-yard field goal to win the Apple Cup.
The point is, no matter what happens in the Sugar Bowl next Monday, this is an experienced Washington team that has seen a lot and will not be overwhelmed in the moment.
And if this game comes down to the final moments, as Petersen is predicting, then that experience could very well pay off for the Huskies, who are 7-0 in one-score games this season.
Of course, the other way to look at that 7-0 record is not just that they have won the close games, but that they have played in so many tight ball games in the first place.
Arizona State was not a good team this year. The Sun Devils finished the season 3-9. And yet, there they were, leading one of the top teams in the country late into the fourth quarter. Had Dillingham kicked the field goal to go up 10-6, you never know what might have happened.
The rest of the one-score games looked like this:
Washington 31 @ Arizona 24
Washington 36 – Oregon 33
Washington 15 – Arziona State 7
Washington 35 – Utah 28
Washington 22 @ Oregon State 20
Washington 24 – Washington State 21
Washington 34 – Oregon 31
For the record, five of those seven games were at home. That still matters.
HOW MUCH DOES THE RUN GAME MATTER?
Also, there is another common theme when you look into it … in just about every one of those games the Huskies struggled to run the ball.
Washington tailback Dillon Johnson was the star of the show when the Huskies beat the Ducks in the Pac-12 conference championship game. Johnson ran for 152 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries (5.4 ypc).
But let’s go back to that Arizona State game.
The Huskies, as a team, compiled 13 total yards rushing on 13 carries. Johnson had eight carries for six yards.
That, along with four total turnovers (two Penix interceptions and two lost fumbles), is a big reason why the Huskies needed that late-game interception in the first place.
Run game struggles were prominent in some of the other one-score games as well.
It can not be a coincidence that in every one of those close calls, the run game struggled.
In last year’s Alamo Bowl, Washington beat Texas by running the ball. As a team, it averaged 5.6 yards per carry. The biggest chunk of its 158 yards rushing came in the second half as the Huskies put together long drives to keep the Longhorn offense on the sidelines.
Washington may need to repeat that feat if it wants to beat Texas again this year.
Of course, Chris Petersen disagrees with me about that.
“That’s not really what they want to do anyways,” said Petersen before immediately backtracking. “They do want to run it. You’ve got to have some sort of balance. But Texas is unbelievable. They’re fourth in the country in stopping the run.”
Washington may have the top passing offense in the country, but Texas will still try to shut down the run and force Penix to throw the ball.
“I think it's a weird concept to know that when you have such a good run-stop defense, it makes an offense one-dimensional,” said Texas Safety Michael Taaffe. “When you make an offense one-dimensional, it's really good for us.”
Penix, while a phenomenal quarterback who will be able to move the ball against Texas, can still be forced into mistakes. He’s thrown nine interceptions on the season … and the Longhorn defense has come up with 16 picks this season, tied for sixth best in the country.
In a game in which one or two defensive stops could be the difference between winning and losing, turnovers will be the key to victory.
TEXAS OFFENSE VS. WASHINGTON DEFENSE
This game may very well come down to who can make a defensive stop late in the game, but that’s not how I see it playing out.
I think Steve Sarkisian will put the ball in Quinn Ewers’ hands early and often and I think Texas will get off to a fast start.
During the first 15 plays of the game (usually the plays that are scripted ahead of time), UT ranks 8th in the country in total yards (1,440) and is 16th in the country with 11 touchdowns.
Ewers should be able to get Texas out to a lead (which will help force UW into abandoning the run early).
Using the pass to set up the run is a bit of a departure from what Sark normally does, but it’s also a good way to take advantage of Washington’s biggest weakness
Ewers has improved throughout the season but he has really come on strong late in the year. His explosive first half in the Big 12 Championship Game made the game a blowout early. I think Sark would like to repeat the feat Monday.
It helps that the Washington pass defense is so poor. Their secondary struggles to stay with dynamic playmakers. The defense has also shown to be poor tacklers at times throughout the season. That’s a bad combination when you’re going up against Xavier Worthy. Worthy was actually open quite a bit in last year’s Alamo Bowl but his broken hand meant he wasn’t the same receiver the Huskies will see this year.
Once the Horns build up a lead, they will look to lean on the run and milk the clock. CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue and Keilan Robinson have all combined to fill in more than adequately for the injured Jonathan Brooks.
Dominique Hampton (DB) and Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB) are the Huskies leading tacklers. That means ball carriers and receivers are getting past the line. Edge rusher Bralen Trice has 41 tackles and five sacks. He is probably their most disruptive player on defense, but Texas has faced better and he shouldn’t give Kelvin Banks or Christian Jones too many fits.
That means the Texas offensive line should be able to protect Ewers when the Horns are passing and open up some lanes when they are running the ball.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE VS. TEXAS DEFENSE
There is one other factor in those close games … Washington dealt with a rash of injuries during the season, especially along the offensive line. That unit, which won the Joe Moore Award as the best o-line in college football, is fully healthy for the game and it should make for a fantastic matchup against the Texas defense.
There really isn’t much more that I can say about T’Vondre Sweat that hasn’t already been said. He has won just about every award there is to win as a defensive lineman. The awards season was good for him and I think it will be good for Texas too.
Sweat is obviously a run stuffing machine, but he is super quick and can get pressure up the middle if you let him. Washington’s offensive line is very good, but not exactly big. Center Parker Brailsford is 6’-2”, 275 pounds. He’ll need help from the left guard Nate Kalepo (6’-6”, 327) and right guard Julius Buelow (6’-8”, 313) in order to handle Sweat.
A double team on Sweat sets up nicely for Texas. My prediction for the player of the game is Byron Murphy. Murphy is an athletic freak who can use his burst to disrupt the Washington pass offense.
I think it’s going to be hard to get a lot of sacks on Monday and a lot of that is because Penix gets the ball out quickly. But pressure, especially up the middle, can force Penix into making decisions quicker than he wants to and that could lead to turnovers.
One player Washington has back, and he’s a difference maker, is the wide receiver Jalen McMillan. Rome Odunze is the big play threat. Washington will take deep shots early and often and Odunze will give Texas DBs fits. But McMillan is the security blanket. If the Huskies can’t run the ball effectively (and I don’t think they can), then they will resort to the short passing game to substitute for the runs with McMillan being the primary target.
The short passing game has given Texas fits at times this season. Houston took advantage of eight-, nine- and 10-yard cushions to continuously move down the field and made it a much closer game than it should have been.
With starting safety Derek Williams out for the first half due to a targeting penalty in the Big 12 Championship Game, I expect defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski to continue to play soft coverage in an attempt to avoid explosive plays. That sets up nicely for this to be a big McMillan game.
Of course, that’s not to say that Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk (a Texan) won’t be able to make their plays as well – they will. But Manny Muhammad and Ryan Watts have gotten better as the season has gone along.
MY PREDICTION:
Texas is a four-point favorite. That line hasn’t moved a bit since it opened which means that money is coming in on both teams. The public, and Vegas, expect this to be a close game.
I do not.
I think that much like the Big 12 Championship Game, Texas gets out a quick lead and is able to control the game from that point on. Washington will be forced to become one dimensional and will make some plays, but I think that gives Texas the chance to make more stops on defense than many are expecting.
TEXAS 42 – WASHINGTON 28
If I’m wrong and this is a close game, I still think Texas defense will get more stops than Washington’s defense. Texas will win a close game too – even if Washington is 7-0 in one-score games.
TWEETS OF INTEREST:
I thought there was some good give and take while talking about the Sugar Bowl on today’s (Wednesday) episode of “Get Your Horns Up!”
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Some of this has to do with the injuries we’ve already discussed, but some of this is also just a step up in competition in conference. It still shows that Penix is not a machine … he can be beaten.
Here’s another comparison.
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We talked about Washington’s culture at the top of the piece … this is a pretty good breakdown of what Sarkisian has done to build the culture and trust that the players have with each other.
##############################
I think Sark is sending the message that he and his team are dialed in on this game.
##############################
Don’t tell me these bowl games don’t mean anything.
##############################
I said the bowl games still matter … but damn, they clearly don’t matter to everyone.
I’m a little disappointed in the FSU players, I think they should have been motivated to try and prove they belong.
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Just because he’s always been one of my favorite players.
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The Texas volleyball team continues to reload for a run at a three-peat.
##############################
Just a reminder … we’re not far away.
##############################
And with that, I will wish you all a safe and happy New Year!
YOU!
Now is your chance to sponsor the column. Our previous sponsor paid for more than three months of sponsorship fees in the first two weeks of signing up. That can be you! Contact @BlakeSkaggs if you want that kind of successful promotion for your business. Don't miss out on this amazing opportunity!
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It was a chilly night in Seattle in late October and the Washington Huskies season was on the line. But these Huskies have ice water in their veins.
The Huskies were down 7-6 with eight minutes to go in the game and Arizona State driving for insurance points. But on fourth-and-3 from the 12 yard line, Sun Devil coach Kenny Dillingham decided to go for it instead of taking the three points.
The pressure was on the Washington defense to step up.
"Don't blink, don't flinch," said Washington CB Mishael Powell about the defensive mindset in that moment.
Powell didn’t flinch. He stepped in front of a Trenton Bourguet pass and took the ball back 98 yards to lead UW to a 15-7 victory – saving the season.
As much as we like to talk about the culture of the Texas Longhorns helping them win games this season, their opponents in the College Football Playoffs semifinal can say the same thing.
Time and time again this season, the Huskies have stepped up when the game was on the line. Whether it was the Powell interception in October, three fourth-down stops against Oregon in their first matchup or the another fourth-down stop against Oregon State in November.
"We had to find a way to win and put the ball in the end zone. We didn't do it as much as we wanted to today, but it was about finding a way to win,” said Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. after the 22-20 win over the Beavers. "The defense made big-time stops when we needed it the most."
Fox Sports analyst Chris Petersen has watched his former team closely and says the Husky defense, which ranks low in just about every statistical category, is tough when it counts.
“I think our defense is so interesting, and in a lot of ways maligned, because I don’t know if I’ve seen a defense that makes more plays when a play is truly needed than this defense,” Petersen told Brock and Damon Huard on the Brock & Salk podcast. “You can go ahead and compare the stats and all that … and if something ever epitomized ‘stats are for losers,’ it’s this defense. Because if they need to get a turnover, if they need to get a fourth-down stop, if they need to get a three-and-out and the game is on the line, they seem to come through almost every time. And it’s the most interesting defense because they just come through … Somebody is going to have to come up with the play of the game and it’s going to come up probably inside those three minutes or something.”
It’s not just the defense that has stepped up when it has been needed. Head coach Kalen DeBoer, who is the AP national coach of the year, saved the season with a ballsy call on a fourth and one play against Washington State.
"I wanted to go out and not be crazy, but I wanted to make sure we had the ball to win the game," DeBoer said.
Some may have called the play crazy, but it worked. A few plays after picking up that conversion, Washington kicker Grady Gross nailed a 42-yard field goal to win the Apple Cup.
The point is, no matter what happens in the Sugar Bowl next Monday, this is an experienced Washington team that has seen a lot and will not be overwhelmed in the moment.
And if this game comes down to the final moments, as Petersen is predicting, then that experience could very well pay off for the Huskies, who are 7-0 in one-score games this season.
Of course, the other way to look at that 7-0 record is not just that they have won the close games, but that they have played in so many tight ball games in the first place.
Arizona State was not a good team this year. The Sun Devils finished the season 3-9. And yet, there they were, leading one of the top teams in the country late into the fourth quarter. Had Dillingham kicked the field goal to go up 10-6, you never know what might have happened.
The rest of the one-score games looked like this:
Washington 31 @ Arizona 24
Washington 36 – Oregon 33
Washington 15 – Arziona State 7
Washington 35 – Utah 28
Washington 22 @ Oregon State 20
Washington 24 – Washington State 21
Washington 34 – Oregon 31
For the record, five of those seven games were at home. That still matters.
HOW MUCH DOES THE RUN GAME MATTER?
Also, there is another common theme when you look into it … in just about every one of those games the Huskies struggled to run the ball.
Washington tailback Dillon Johnson was the star of the show when the Huskies beat the Ducks in the Pac-12 conference championship game. Johnson ran for 152 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries (5.4 ypc).
But let’s go back to that Arizona State game.
The Huskies, as a team, compiled 13 total yards rushing on 13 carries. Johnson had eight carries for six yards.
That, along with four total turnovers (two Penix interceptions and two lost fumbles), is a big reason why the Huskies needed that late-game interception in the first place.
Run game struggles were prominent in some of the other one-score games as well.
| OPPONENT | CARRIES | YARDS | YARDS PER CARRY |
| ARIZONA | 26 | 111 | 4.3 |
| OREGON | 23 | 99 | 4.3 |
| ARIZONA STATE | 13 | 13 | 1 |
| UTAH | 33 | 125 | 3.8 |
| OREGON STATE | 37 | 157 | 4.4 |
| WASHINGTON STATE | 30 | 102 | 3.4 |
| OREGON | 37 | 157 | 4.2 |
| TOTALS: | 212 | 717 | 3.38 |
It can not be a coincidence that in every one of those close calls, the run game struggled.
In last year’s Alamo Bowl, Washington beat Texas by running the ball. As a team, it averaged 5.6 yards per carry. The biggest chunk of its 158 yards rushing came in the second half as the Huskies put together long drives to keep the Longhorn offense on the sidelines.
Washington may need to repeat that feat if it wants to beat Texas again this year.
Of course, Chris Petersen disagrees with me about that.
“That’s not really what they want to do anyways,” said Petersen before immediately backtracking. “They do want to run it. You’ve got to have some sort of balance. But Texas is unbelievable. They’re fourth in the country in stopping the run.”
Washington may have the top passing offense in the country, but Texas will still try to shut down the run and force Penix to throw the ball.
“I think it's a weird concept to know that when you have such a good run-stop defense, it makes an offense one-dimensional,” said Texas Safety Michael Taaffe. “When you make an offense one-dimensional, it's really good for us.”
Penix, while a phenomenal quarterback who will be able to move the ball against Texas, can still be forced into mistakes. He’s thrown nine interceptions on the season … and the Longhorn defense has come up with 16 picks this season, tied for sixth best in the country.
In a game in which one or two defensive stops could be the difference between winning and losing, turnovers will be the key to victory.
TEXAS OFFENSE VS. WASHINGTON DEFENSE
This game may very well come down to who can make a defensive stop late in the game, but that’s not how I see it playing out.
I think Steve Sarkisian will put the ball in Quinn Ewers’ hands early and often and I think Texas will get off to a fast start.
During the first 15 plays of the game (usually the plays that are scripted ahead of time), UT ranks 8th in the country in total yards (1,440) and is 16th in the country with 11 touchdowns.
Ewers should be able to get Texas out to a lead (which will help force UW into abandoning the run early).
Using the pass to set up the run is a bit of a departure from what Sark normally does, but it’s also a good way to take advantage of Washington’s biggest weakness
Ewers has improved throughout the season but he has really come on strong late in the year. His explosive first half in the Big 12 Championship Game made the game a blowout early. I think Sark would like to repeat the feat Monday.
It helps that the Washington pass defense is so poor. Their secondary struggles to stay with dynamic playmakers. The defense has also shown to be poor tacklers at times throughout the season. That’s a bad combination when you’re going up against Xavier Worthy. Worthy was actually open quite a bit in last year’s Alamo Bowl but his broken hand meant he wasn’t the same receiver the Huskies will see this year.
Once the Horns build up a lead, they will look to lean on the run and milk the clock. CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue and Keilan Robinson have all combined to fill in more than adequately for the injured Jonathan Brooks.
Dominique Hampton (DB) and Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB) are the Huskies leading tacklers. That means ball carriers and receivers are getting past the line. Edge rusher Bralen Trice has 41 tackles and five sacks. He is probably their most disruptive player on defense, but Texas has faced better and he shouldn’t give Kelvin Banks or Christian Jones too many fits.
That means the Texas offensive line should be able to protect Ewers when the Horns are passing and open up some lanes when they are running the ball.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE VS. TEXAS DEFENSE
There is one other factor in those close games … Washington dealt with a rash of injuries during the season, especially along the offensive line. That unit, which won the Joe Moore Award as the best o-line in college football, is fully healthy for the game and it should make for a fantastic matchup against the Texas defense.
There really isn’t much more that I can say about T’Vondre Sweat that hasn’t already been said. He has won just about every award there is to win as a defensive lineman. The awards season was good for him and I think it will be good for Texas too.
Sweat is obviously a run stuffing machine, but he is super quick and can get pressure up the middle if you let him. Washington’s offensive line is very good, but not exactly big. Center Parker Brailsford is 6’-2”, 275 pounds. He’ll need help from the left guard Nate Kalepo (6’-6”, 327) and right guard Julius Buelow (6’-8”, 313) in order to handle Sweat.
A double team on Sweat sets up nicely for Texas. My prediction for the player of the game is Byron Murphy. Murphy is an athletic freak who can use his burst to disrupt the Washington pass offense.
I think it’s going to be hard to get a lot of sacks on Monday and a lot of that is because Penix gets the ball out quickly. But pressure, especially up the middle, can force Penix into making decisions quicker than he wants to and that could lead to turnovers.
One player Washington has back, and he’s a difference maker, is the wide receiver Jalen McMillan. Rome Odunze is the big play threat. Washington will take deep shots early and often and Odunze will give Texas DBs fits. But McMillan is the security blanket. If the Huskies can’t run the ball effectively (and I don’t think they can), then they will resort to the short passing game to substitute for the runs with McMillan being the primary target.
The short passing game has given Texas fits at times this season. Houston took advantage of eight-, nine- and 10-yard cushions to continuously move down the field and made it a much closer game than it should have been.
With starting safety Derek Williams out for the first half due to a targeting penalty in the Big 12 Championship Game, I expect defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski to continue to play soft coverage in an attempt to avoid explosive plays. That sets up nicely for this to be a big McMillan game.
Of course, that’s not to say that Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk (a Texan) won’t be able to make their plays as well – they will. But Manny Muhammad and Ryan Watts have gotten better as the season has gone along.
MY PREDICTION:
Texas is a four-point favorite. That line hasn’t moved a bit since it opened which means that money is coming in on both teams. The public, and Vegas, expect this to be a close game.
I do not.
I think that much like the Big 12 Championship Game, Texas gets out a quick lead and is able to control the game from that point on. Washington will be forced to become one dimensional and will make some plays, but I think that gives Texas the chance to make more stops on defense than many are expecting.
TEXAS 42 – WASHINGTON 28
If I’m wrong and this is a close game, I still think Texas defense will get more stops than Washington’s defense. Texas will win a close game too – even if Washington is 7-0 in one-score games.
TWEETS OF INTEREST:
I thought there was some good give and take while talking about the Sugar Bowl on today’s (Wednesday) episode of “Get Your Horns Up!”
##############################
Some of this has to do with the injuries we’ve already discussed, but some of this is also just a step up in competition in conference. It still shows that Penix is not a machine … he can be beaten.
Here’s another comparison.
##############################
We talked about Washington’s culture at the top of the piece … this is a pretty good breakdown of what Sarkisian has done to build the culture and trust that the players have with each other.
##############################
I think Sark is sending the message that he and his team are dialed in on this game.
##############################
Don’t tell me these bowl games don’t mean anything.
##############################
I said the bowl games still matter … but damn, they clearly don’t matter to everyone.
I’m a little disappointed in the FSU players, I think they should have been motivated to try and prove they belong.
##############################
Just because he’s always been one of my favorite players.
##############################
The Texas volleyball team continues to reload for a run at a three-peat.
##############################
Just a reminder … we’re not far away.
##############################
And with that, I will wish you all a safe and happy New Year!
