The college football realignment carousel has come to a stop…for now.
Pac-12 schools are in the midst of an exclusive 30-day negotiation period with ESPN over a new media rights deal. What happens in those negotiations will either shut the carousel down for a while or start it spinning all over again.
In other words, ESPN will likely dictate what happens next.
“The tectonic plates tend to sort of move around the broadcast negotiations,” said John Kosner, a media rights consultant who led ESPN’s digital media from 2003 to 2017.
If ESPN comes in with a strong offer, the Pac-12 stands a good chance of surviving. If ESPN comes in with a low-ball offer, that could be enough to push some or all of those schools to jump ship.
New Big XII Commissioner Brett Yormark did not confirm reports that the conference has been in talks with six members of the Pac-12, but he did say the conference is "open for business."
“It’s fair to say I’ve received a lot of phone calls, a lot of interest,” Yormark said. “People understand the direction of the Big 12, and we’re exploring those levels of interest. Nothing is imminent, but we’re working hard to make sure that we position the Big 12 in the best possible way on a go-forward basis.”
Ed Desser, was the former president of NBA TV and now consults with sports clients, including the Big XII. He says the Pac-12 is going to struggle in the wake of USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten.
“They’re going to be hard pressed to generate what they used to get or what they would have gotten without the second largest market in the country,” said Desser.
Desser went on to say that the Pac-12 can survive, but that the conference will look very different without the tent-pole institutions of USC and UCLA.
“The AAC (American Athletic Conference) has called itself a power six conference for a long time because they do better than most of the other D1 conferences outside of the power five,” said Desser. “The Pac-12 is now closer to the AAC than the ACC.”
Pac-12 president’s hearing their new conference will be closer to the AAC than the ACC will make most of them very nervous.
The AAC has a deal with ESPN which runs through 2031 and pays out roughly $10 million per school. The ACC payed out between $35 and $38 million per school last year.
Leaders of Pac-12 schools have a decision to make. Do they want to continue to compete at the highest levels of college football? Doing so will take money. Lots and Lots of money.
“There’s undoubtedly going to be a lot of soul searching during this time,” said Kosner. “I think that the assumption that everybody is just going to leave for the money isn’t accurate.”
Kosner believes the USC and UCLA move may be the last one we see for a while.
“There’s powerful forces that keep natural rivalries and geographies together,” Kosner said when I asked about the Big XII and Pac-12 media rights negotiations. “It’s a simpler business to renew those two deals than to merge two conferences together.”
Kosner says the main things broadcast partners look for are still available in the Pac-12, even without the LA schools.
“I think they’re looking for schools that have national brands, schools that have a track record of driving good television ratings. Schools that are capable of playing in the college football playoff.”
Oregon would have to be considered the Pac-12’s leading man. The Ducks fulfill all of Kosner’s requirements for a strong tv deal. They are a national brand with a track record of good television ratings and they have played in the CFP.
No school in the Big XII can make that claim.
John Canzano spoke with former Fox Sports Network President Bob Thompson about the Pac-12’s shaky ground. Thompson says ESPN is the conference’s best hope.
“ESPN needs the Pac-12 more than anybody and will likely pay more than anyone else,” Thompson conveyed to Canzano. “They like West Coast windows for football. They like basketball inventory and they might actually be able to make something out of the Pac-12 Networks. They also need content for ESPN+.”
Kosner sees the value the Pac-12 could bring ESPN as well.
“The Pac-12 serves the West Coast, serves the Pacific time zone,” said Kosner. “There’s been a lot discussion with the Big Ten about three broadcast windows; 12 noon Eastern, 3:30 Eastern and then 7:30 or eight o’clock Eastern. But there’s actually a fourth time period which is 10 o’clock or so Eastern time and the Pac-12 is in a leadership position there. Those are important windows and an important schedule of games. It’s a schedule of national college football games. Yes, it super-serves the West Coast, but 10 o’clock is largely a window that’s largely unopposed so there’s an ability to get some ratings there.”
Kosner added that the current ESPN lineup without the Pac-12 tilts to the East. “If you’re ESPN right now, you have a very strong position with the SEC and ACC, but that’s only part of the country.”
If ESPN decides it is not interested in shelling out big money to the Pac-12, both media rights consultants I spoke with didn’t seem to believe streaming platforms like Amazon or Apple + will be the ones to save the day.
“I think they’ve all been in discussions but I don’t think it’s likely right now that they’re going to come in for major portions of the package,” said Kosner.
Desser agreed saying traditional broadcast outlets have more appeal to conferences as well.
“If you can have somewhere close to the same money but have broader distribution, that’s going to be the preference.”
However, Desser noted that streaming outlets can take advantage of sports that may not have broad appeal, but do have a core audience. Offering sports allows streamers to capture new subscribers or keep old subscribers around.
For example, he cited the recent MLS decision to switch all of their games to Apple +, noting that soccer fans are not only devoted to the sport, but used to streaming for many of their games.
Desser says conferences may be able to sell smaller packages to streaming outlets who may carry things such as college baseball.
Certainly ESPN+ has stepped up its production of these kinds of sporting events in order to provide content to its subscribers.
But for now, we wait while the broadcast negotiations continue. Once those are done, we’ll either settle in for another season of college football, or we’ll go for another spin on the realignment carousel.
WHO WILL WIN THE BIG XII? IT'S ALL ABOUT THE QUARTERBACKS
The Big XII Media Days are the unofficial start of football season. We’re now three weeks away from the start of fall camp, and 52 days from kickoff.
Big XII media members voted on their preseason poll last week, establishing Baylor as the favorite to win it all again this year. Meanwhile, Las Vegas has UT as the odds-on favorite. The truth is, any number of teams can win the conference this year.
If I were good at picking winners, I wouldn’t need to work, but I clearly do work, which should tell you all you need to know about my prognostication abilities. Still, I’ll take my shot at giving you a prediction.
The winner of the Big XII this year will be the team with the best quarterback play.
There you go. Now if you can figure out which team that will be, go ahead and place your money down. Personally, I’ve got a mortgage and mouths to feed, so I’ll hold onto my money.
But let’s take a look at the contenders.
TEXAS: QUINN EWERS OR HUDSON CARD
Ask any fan or pundit and they’ll tell you Sark will choose Quinn Ewers to be his starting quarterback. I tend to agree.
Ewers has all of the skills to be able to not only win the starting job, but to be the best quarterback in the Big XII, even as a redshirt freshman. The problem is that Ewers has never thrown a pass in a college game so we really don’t know how he’ll respond when the blitzes come at him.
Card also has plenty of skills. He won the job last season as a second-year freshman but quickly lost the job when he got hog rushed in Arkansas. Card needs to speed up his decision making and his throwing motion. If he can do that, he really could be a great (not just good) quarterback.
OKLAHOMA STATE: SPENCER SANDERS
Sanders is being tabbed as the best passer in the league. That probably has more to do with the fact that this will be his fourth year as a starter than anything he’s done so far.
Here are his QB Ratings over his first three seasons as a starter:
2021: 133.9
2020: 143.2
2019: 145.4
Those numbers will hardly set the world on fire.
There are games where Sanders can look great, like the Fiesta Bowl where he lit up Notre Dame for 371 yards with four touchdowns.
But there are also games where he can get rattled. Sanders tossed four interceptions in the Big XII Championship Game while under constant pressure from the Baylor defense. He also had two picks in the Bedlam game against OU. He was pretty pedestrian against Texas last year as well with one touchdown, one interception and only 178 yards passing.
If this is the best QB in the Big XII then the conference is in trouble (and for once, I’m not talking conference realignment).
OKLAHOMA: DILLON GABRIEL
Gabriel transferred to OU from UCF. Gabriel missed most of the 2021 season after breaking his collarbone in week three.
Prior to his injury, Gabriel was nothing, if not consistent. Take a look at his QB ratings:
2021: 158.9
2020: 156.3
2019: 156.9
Ketchum made the argument on last week’s Modcast that those numbers are reminiscent of another quarterback you all may be familiar with…Sam Ehlinger. But the truth is, they’re actually better than Sam’s numbers (though not by much). Ehlinger’s best season was his junior year when he posted a 151.8 QB rating.
Gabriel will have better weapons to work with throwing to Theo Wease and Marvin Mims. He’ll also have a working knowledge of new offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s offense. Lebby came to OU from Ole Miss, but he worked at UCF before that.
Gabriel has faced tough competition before, but those were only one-off games where he had time to prepare. This will be a step up in competition just about every week. We’ll see how he does.
WEST VIRGINIA: J.T. DANIELS
We talked about Ewers and Card having all of the skills needed to be the best QB in the Big XII and the same is true with Daniels. But the difference is Ewers and Card are playing their second season of college football while Daniels is heading into his fifth season.
Daniels arrives in Morgantown after previous stops in LA (USC) and Athens (Georgia). Generally, when a player is playing for his third university, it’s because he either didn’t have the talent to play at the first two or he has struggled with injuries or suspensions. In Daniels’ case, it’s a bit of both. He has struggled with injuries and he has been beaten out for jobs.
KANSAS STATE: ADRIAN MARTINEZ
Kansas State is kind of the dark horse pick to win the conference because of Adrian Martinez. I’m sorry but I can’t even begin to understand that line of thinking.
Martinez has been worse than pedestrian while starting the past four seasons for Nebraska. Last season was his best yet with a 148.9 QB rating but he also three ten interceptions to go with only 14 touchdowns. Scott Frost was his offensive coordinator and head coach and he was known to have prolific offenses…but that was before he had Martinez lining up behind the center. Chris Klieman is hardly an offensive guru capable of turning pedestrian QB’s into world beaters. Of course there’s one thing that Klieman does that matches up well with Martinez’s skill set…he runs the ball. Martinez can hurt a defense when he tucks the ball and takes off.
BAYLOR: BLAKE SHAPEN
Shapen looked good in last year’s Big XII Championship Game beating Oklahoma State. He also beat out Gerry Bohanon for the starting job (sending Bohanon to the transfer portal). But let’s be honest, if Baylor wins the Big XII again it will likely be because Dave Aranda knows a thing or two about creating strong defenses.
There’s really no point in listing out the rest of the Big XII quarterbacks. These are the guys who will lead one of their team’s to a Big XII title this season. I would just warn you not to bet the bank on any of them because this is the most wide open Big XII I’ve seen in years.
