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Quarterback
(SO) Jerrod Heard - 525 snaps in 2015
(SR) Tyrone Swoopes - 240 snaps in 2015
(RS FR) Kai Locksley - Redshirted in 2015
(RS FR) Matthew Merrick - Redshirted in 2015
(FR) Shane Buechele - Early Freshman Enrollee
Overview of the Battle:
New Longhorns OC Sterlin Gilbert has brought with him to Texas an offense that will be all-new to all parties involved, clearly. It is a focused and clean spread-attack that is based in air-raid methodology with personal touches here and there that seemingly pay homage to old-school veer-option and Texas high school football.
Picture it as a kissing cousin of the Art Briles offense and then you’re basically there scheme-wise. Coke and Pepsi. (Do they still make Pepsi?)
Regardless, Tyrone Swoopes, who is now the elder statesman of the group, will be learning his fourth offense under his third offensive coordinator and QB coach. This is worrisome as Swoopes has never shown himself capable of sustaining success outside of a gimmicky 18-wheeler package where he was a running back aligned as a QB. Swoopes has shown he folds under pressure and gets brain-frozen even on simple one-read concepts as a passer in game-situations.
If such a thing as the “it-factor” exists — the alpha-male, ice-water-in-the-veins, ‘get-the-ball-in-his-hands-to-win-the-game’ gene — it’s been a distinctly recessive one in Swoopes thus far.
Still, by all indications, Swoopes will come into spring practices with a very loose “No.1”-tag on him, by default if nothing else. And here again, an issue pertaining to Swoopes becomes worrisome — that issue being: he’s always looked very good in spring practices, only to turn into a pumpkin when the lights come on. Even in the friendly confines of a 2015 spring game versus defensive walk-ons.
The overview of the battle for the rest of the QBs on campus is beating out that guy. Plain and simple. In short: this thing should have been considered wide-open even if the offensive staff hadn’t admitted as much to the media.
One Possible Breakout Player:
The most popular guy in every college town where the football team has been struggling and/or awful recently is either A) the backup quarterback or B) the hot-new QB recruit who just got in.
Shane Buechele technically meets both of these criteria and is certainly the player the fanbase would love to see overtake the job during spring, whether that’s a reasonable expectation or not. This is for many reasons, as we’ll get to, the most important one being that this indicates Shane Buechele is probably a true badass.
One Candidate for Eventual Transfer:
It’s a tough one to predict like all the rest of this, and Kai Locksley could come into spring practice and light the place up. Maybe he’s the ‘breakout’ guy. Let’s remember that Locksley, per many close to him has been focused on honing his skills as a passer and putting in extra time training with teammates and on his own alike. These reports have been all but verified via various social media posts from Locksley showing images and videos of his working on his own time.
Let’s also remember, though, that Locksley’s high school film and evaluations from camps were not encouraging regarding where he was as a passer. This is only an exercise based on scenarios, but in a scenario where Locksley was passed up on the depth chart by a Shane Buechele or firmly entrenched behind a Jerrod Heard, the idea of moving him to another position would begin being floated as Locksley is a ridiculous athlete. If these things all occurred in just the wrong way, it’s easy to see how Locksley could possibly develop a transfer mindset.
He’s certainly not on the radar to be keeping an eye on for transfer in the immediate future, however.
One Player in a Make-or-Break Season:
It’s gotta be Jerrod Heard. The only scenario in which Heard does not win the QB battle outright in 2016 and then goes on to start again for Texas in the future (outside of reserve duty) is … a Tyrone Swoopes mega-monster through spring and then a fall camp that leads to Swoopes having a huge season garnering some level of major national awareness. The question is, ‘how likely do I really see that being?’
At this point, not many are holding their breath for the old Cam Newton final-year-run out of Tyrone Swoopes.
Jerrod Heard was the apple of the fanbase’s eye following a record-setting loss at home versus Cal in 2015, but went on to regress in his redshirt freshman season. He showed he wasn’t capable of being a two-dimensional threat with any consistency while also validating concerns about his (yes, ‘smallish’) frame and level of durability.
One Thing You May Have Forgotten About:
Matthew Merrick seems like the forgotten player in this whole deal, so you may have forgotten that his senior highlight tape was pretty nasty. I certainly had. Big arm (although he still has a wonky release), good pocket mobility, the ability to extend plays and find open windows, fit the ball into smaller windows and run through rudimentary progressions. His highlights show a “gunslinger”-type that Sterling Gilbert has said he covets.
One Ray of Sunshine:
Shane Buechele has the ability to process things quickly. There’s evidence of it all over his high school tape and his ability to dissect a defense easily in a 7-on-7 setting. Furthermore, at 2014’s Under The Lights summer camp, I was impressed by Buechele being one of the events biggest standouts despite telling me afterwards that every single drill that then-QB coach Shawn Watson put him through was 100-percent new to him.
Remember, Texas hadn’t yet changed its offense at that point. Watson was doing things that some high school QBs hadn’t ever seen or thought about before meeting him. Always remember, Buechele comes from a family where food was put on the table by a father’s ability to, among other things, throw a ball.
He’s the literal definition of a natural-born “baller.”
*One Drop of Rain on the Buechele Parade:
True-freshman QBs haven’t historically won much in their first seasons and Charlie Strong must win 8-9 games to save his job. It’s going to be incredibly hard to trust a true-freshman to do so.
OB Poster @_PIIHB_ has done some of his own maniacal research inspired by this (also intriguing) article from a Cal website. It was published at a point in time when the Golden Bears found themselves in the position of having to start Jared Goff as a true freshman.
Here’s a graph @_PIIHB_ made made and sent me detailing frequency of accumulating wins (by season win-total) of the 51 true-freshman P5 conference QBs who’ve had to start since 2008 with at least 100 pass attempts.
9 win season- 1 of 51
8 win season- 3 of 51
7 win season- 3 of 51
Under .500 - 43 of 51
Buechele might need to be a natural-born baller and then some.
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Running Back
(JR) D’Onta Foreman - 241 snaps in 2015
(SO) Chris Warren - 161 snaps in 2015
(SO) Kirk Johnson - 12 snaps in 2015
(RS FR) Tristian Houston - Redshirted in 2015
Overview of the Battle:
There isn’t much of one — a battle, that is. Foreman and Warren showed enough during portions of the 2015 season to answer any questions anyone may have about the future of the Longhorns run-game. It’s in good hands for the immediate future.
As Warren and Foreman are slightly similar runners, one could argue that a battle will exist between the two as to who will handle bellcow duties, but the fact of the matter is, Texas has not seen a season in recent memory in which two (and sometimes three and four and five) runners were needed as major contributors over the duration.
Keeping an effective running game plugging along is, and always has been, a battle of attrition in big-time football.
One Possible Breakout Player:
Texas will have two returning “power-backs” (I hesitate to call Foreman a traditional power-back as he has elite, ridiculous speed that some still — fascinatingly — don’t give him credit for) and one surefire between-the-tackles runner coming into the fold over the summer in Mighty Mouse freshman Kyle Porter.
This leaves Tristian Houston and Kirk Johnson as players of a different mold - that is, the smaller, more versatile pass-catching, passing-down and change-of-pace variety of runner. Texas fans saw very little of Kirk Johnson in 2015 but he was effective while on the field. He was hurt to end the 2015 season and will be limited at least to start the spring, opening the door for Houston to assume lots of reps in complementary duties to the between-the-tackles, early-down options in Warren and Foreman.
Even with this said, Johnson showed in very limited game-duty during 2015 that there’s a distinct possibility that he’ll be a true lightning rod. Johnson has the better chance of a 2016-season breakout while Houston seems poised for that chance in the spring.
One Candidate for Eventual Transfer:
I don’t foresee any of them transferring at this time, and don’t really have good reason to. While Texas is stocked with talent at the RB position, it’s tough to say it’s “log-jammed” enough to drive talent off of campus at this point. Texas will soon have three runners who’re set up to be early down options and two who’ll serve the offense in roles that project slightly less volume of touches.
One Player in a Make-or-Break Season:
None of them face make-or-break situations as players who are on any sort of playing time or roster bubble. Houston and Johnson are young and still developing while Foreman and Warren are safe in their positions and poised for continued success. The player who’s in a situation that most closely resembles ‘make-or-break’ in some sense might be Foreman as the oldest player in the young group and one who can propel his stock as a junior into having some serious NFL buzz coming into his senior year.
It’s hard to believe, but D’Onta Foreman is already halfway-done with his time at Texas. You could say his junior year represents the one where he’ll have to make the steps toward becoming a truly elite player in Longhorns history. Despite his two-star status as a recruit, Foreman has shown he has the gifts to leave quite a legacy.
One Thing You May Have Forgotten About:
We talk about Kirk Johnson as a complementary weapon for an offense, but don’t forget he was known to go “beast mode” a time or two in high school …
***WARNING - VERY NOT SAFE FOR WORK LANGUAGE***
***SECOND WARNING - VERY NOT SAFE FOR WORK LANGUAGE***
One Ray of Sunshine:
No need to identify just one. This is one of the position groups that Texas fans will certainly feel most proud of as a whole and the group Strong will lean on in the fall to generate enough offense to help him keep his job. Regardless of new OC Sterlin Gilbert’s “air-raid”-like offense, Texas will be very balanced in 2016. Mark that much down.
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Offensive Line
(SO) LT Connor Williams - 726 snaps in 2015
(SR) OG/RT Kent Perkins - 575 snaps in 2015
(SO) RG Patrick Vahe - 553 snaps in 2015
(JR) OT Tristan Nickelson - 158 snaps in 2015
(SO) OG Elijah Rodriguez - 115 snaps in 2015
(SO) C Terrell Cuney - 17 snaps in 2015
(RS FR) OT Garrett Thomas - Redshirted in 2015
(JR) OG/OT Brandon Hodges - Redshirted after 2015 JUCO transfer
(RS FR) OT Ronnie ‘Buck’ Major - Redshirted in 2015
(SO) OG Alex Anderson - Did not play a single snap in RS FR season
(FR) C/OG Zach Shackelford - Early Freshman Enrollee
Overview of the Battle:
This thing is wide open.
The players above are listed in experience-tiers. The first group is firmly entrenched in their starting roles. Two are returning freshman All-Americans in Vahe and Williams and the other is the biggest, strongest guy on the line and a senior in Kent Perkins.
The battle for the other three spots could go any which way — and to make things more confusing, we don’t even know what spots the remaining players will be fighting who over at this time. Kent Perkins has played both guard and tackle during his time at Texas and optimally he’s a better player at guard. However, there could be important reasons to keep him at RT in 2016, one of which being that the tandem of Perkins and Vahe on the right side when healthy in 2015 was a road-grading machine often for the Longhorns and the staff may want to continue developing that tag-team.
If the tackle spot is opened up on the right side, it will mean that Perkins has moved over to left guard and the candidates for the right tackle position would then include Tristan Nickelson, Garrett Thomas and Buck Major with a player like Brandon Hodges who has OG/OT versatility also factoring into the mix.
Center is perhaps the position that will be most interesting to watch. There had been buzz over Christmas break among current players that Patrick Vahe could be moving inside, but that talk has seemingly waned.
One Possible Breakout Player:
A reason why the Vahe-to-center talk may have waned could be freshman early-enrollee Zach Shackelford. Shackelford was a prospect who I’ve always thought was tough and smart. He’s the kind of player who can win one-on-one’s in a camp setting versus good defensive linemen even though camp drills for linemen are designed in a way that greatly favors the defensive player and puts the offensive player in seemingly impossible situations.
Shackelford has come to Texas by all reports stronger than anticipated. It is ridiculous to peg Shackelford as the starting center before spring camp even starts as he’s a freshman; and not even the coaches have seen him on a college football field yet.
However, his competition isn’t exactly stacked and the idea of starting from Day 1 like Williams and Vahe was certainly floated to Shackelford by the current coaching staff in its desperation to get another body on campus that could snap the football when wrapping up 2015 recruiting. Following the departure of Jake Raulerson, the only center with any experience left on the roster is Terrell Cuney who showed fundamental flaws on tape out of high school, has been injured through much of his time at Texas, has had off-field issues and who was certifiably horrible at basically all times in the 2015 spring scrimmage.
One Candidate for Eventual Transfer:
If the Jake Raulerson saga taught us anything, it’s that these transfers are impossible to project sometimes. No candidate jumps off the page as a definite one to watch.
If I have to pick one, Cuney would be as good a dart-throw as any, as Cuney would be permanently passed up on the depth chart should Zach Shackelford come in and take the reins on the center position. You could see the guy thinking a fresh start elsewhere might make sense.
One Player in a Make-or-Break Season:
The easiest one question to answer so far, the answer here is Kent Perkins. Here’s an excerpt from the Deep Dig’s season finale explaining just why:
Let’s just get it out there, Kent Perkins needs to pick it up.
Perkins came into his junior season at Texas seemingly poised to possibly bump back inside to his more natural position of guard and pave the way for a 2015 season that would lead to a 2016 filled with NFL draft hype.
As far as we can tell, that sure doesn’t seem to be the case. Perkins graded respectably on the season, but did so in spite of allowing horrible disruption. Perkins was an on/off player in 2015 who, looking back on the season as a whole, failed to progress in all ways but these:
- He was stronger. Bigger and stronger and physically more powerful.
- More dominant than ever when the switch was “on.” The Deep Dig graded 64 of Perkins’ 2015 run-blocking snaps with an above-average grade or better. It didn’t matter whether it was in zone concepts or in power concepts, either. Of those 64 plays, 35 of them (54%) were power and/or draw/lead/gap-based while 29 were zone schemes.
As Texas moves on to much more of a man-and-power based attack in the trenches for run-downs, Perkins will have the opportunity to become more focused on his techniques in ways that should lead to continued periods of dominance. The issue to monitor, and we Lord knows we will, is going to be whether it comes consistently.
The story with Perkins, when looking at the entire body of work, is that he didn’t do one thing consistently to give up disruption. It wasn’t like Patrick Vahe. You see, in Vahe’s case, we knew that his issue coming in was going to be getting his feet, positioning and balance right to handle and disallow interior pressure. Charlie Strong said as much at availabilities coming into the season. When you look at Vahe’s disruption achilles heel in 2015, the Deep Dig correspondingly shows that it was in allowing pressures.
Perkins, however, dipped his toes pretty firmly into both the run and pass-sides of the disruption equation, allowing the most QB pressures of anyone on the team and second-most run-stuffs despite missing two games.
If Perkins allows half the disruption he did last season while improving his percentage of above-average-to-dominant run-snaps as graded by the Deep Dig a few ticks to 18-20% in 2016, he’ll be the first Texas offensive lineman taken in the NFL draft in almost a decade.
It’s up to Kent Perkins.
One Thing You May Have Forgotten About:
Of the players who saw snaps in 2015 returning to action in 2016, Elijah Rodriguez is in third-place for snaps-per-disruption-allowed behind Williams and Vahe per the Deep Dig.
One Ray of Sunshine:
I said last season coming into this time (as a maniac who has graded every snap of every Texas offensive lineman since the year 2012) that the Horns in the offensive trenches would improve from 2014 to 2015 and then continue a steady build from there into 2016. The improvement on the OL will continue barring injury catastrophe.
Furthermore, the halfway-point of the 2016 season has always been the landmark the Deep Dig has talked about for going from an “improving unit” to rounding into a great unit. By the time the 2016 season is over, Texas fans will be looking at a returning 2017 offensive line that will have virtually no holes. One that is littered with talent and salty.
The exciting part of all this is seeing who emerges under the new staff as possible future foundation pieces of what will almost certainly be looked back on as part of a transcendental group.
This all starts on Monday.
On Monday.
Football is back, folks.
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Tight Ends/Fullbacks
(JR) Andrew Beck - 331 snaps in 2015
(SR) Caleb Bluiett - 286 snaps in 2015
(JR) Blake Whiteley - (missed 2015 season with injury)
Overview of the Battle:
The most boring group of all to write (and surely read) about, the TE position will be relegated to that of a glorified fullback in the new Texas offense. It is the “move”-TE that NFL fans have been used to seeing in NFL offenses.
That is, until a dynamic receiving weapon comes along who is worthy of being slotted into the receiving game while also holding down the blocking duties of a H-Back. This type of player becomes a Delanie Walker or a Charles Clay to an offense, a player that can be a matchup nightmare.
You watch — at some point Bill Belichick will sign Charles Clay on the cheap, just knowing what a pain in the ass he was to deal with as a division opponent in Miami and then Buffalo.
The point is, only three scholarship tight ends return in spring practices and one of them is Caleb Bluiett who should still be playing defense. One is Andrew Beck who was a Mack Brown recruit at linebacker and one is a JUCO transfer in Blake Whiteley who hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
Bluiett is a rare athlete and should technically not be discounted as someone who could step up in some sort of role within the passing game, but any extended look at the Tulsa offense from last season shows a willingness/desire to use four “true” WRs that was lost on the previous Texas staff.
I suppose the battle for these guys — each one of them — is proving they are receiving weapons on par (at least proportionally situationally) with the whole slew of wide receivers chomping at the bit on the sidelines to get snaps when the field needs opening up.
And it really is a whole slew of them …
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Wide Receivers
(SO) John Burt - 665 snaps in 2015
(JR) Armanti Foreman - 387 snaps in 2015
(JR) Lorenzo Joe - 105 snaps in 2015
(SR) Jacorey Warrick - 62 snaps in 2015
(SO) Ryan Newsome - 47 snaps in 2015
(SO) Deandre McNeal - 37 snaps in 2015
(JR) Dorian Leonard - 35 snaps in 2015
(SO) Roderick Bernard - 11 snaps in 2015
(JR) Jake Oliver - 8 snaps in 2015
(SO) Garrett Gray (listed as a TE but works out at WR)
(SR) Ty Templin (every recent season’s spring-time darling)
(FR) Collin Johnson - Early Freshman Enrollee
Overview of the Battle:
Another one that’s simply wide open. New offense, new coordinators and position coaches — every one of these guys feels like they have a new lease on life. The spring time will be fascinating to see play out for this group.
John Burt is the only surefire returner to the starting lineup given the addition of Collin Johnson and the depth currently in the cupboard. Burt led not only the WRs, but also the Texas offense in snaps last season and looks like the spitting image of current NFL draft hopeful, Tulsa’s Keyarris Garrett, on the right side of the offensive formation.
Texas fans bemoan Deandre McNeal’s previous lack of playing time, but he’s got some players to beat out. Lorenzo Joe might be the most dependable hands-catcher that Texas has, Armanti Foreman has physical gifts like a Ferrari, Bernard is the ‘hot rod, Newsome is a speed demon himself who fans also want to see on the field more, Leonard was the starter at X and primary red-zone threat coming into last spring and last I checked Petey Warrick is still on the roster.
Add in a plug-and-play (stud) option in Collin Johnson who’ll push to contribute right off and that’s a battle. That’s the spring battle of them all — it’ll be who comes out as the four wide receivers the staff loves the most coming into summer.
One Possible Breakout Player:
Collin Johnson — please refer to Episode VI of the OB podcast for details as to why.
One Candidate for Eventual Transfer:
Surely it’s Garrett Gray. Gray was offered by Mack Brown at a camp in one of the most un-Charlie Strong ways imaginable process-wise. We’ve seen in knowing the circumstances of Adrian Colbert, Jake Raulerson and Bryson Echols that certain players in that predicament who don’t seem to have been “adopted” yet by virtue of playing time decide to bolt.
Gray’s the only receiver on scholarship who went through a whole RS FR season without receiving an offensive snap. No true freshman even met those criteria. His position is unclear and nebulous even on the official depth chart. Gray is a talented player who could contribute at a number of places, I’m frankly surprised he hasn’t transferred yet.
One Player in a Make-or-Break Season:
Gotta be Armanti. He’s too gifted to go through college as the guy ‘who can’t catch the football’. Armanti Foreman is a player whose young career has been plagued by drops while also being hindered by horrible QB play. It sounds harsh to say, but for all his accolades, Foreman has not been a very good player for Texas thus far in his career.
It’s so interesting to realize that D’Onta Foreman is probably only in town because of his uber-talented brother Armanti.
One Thing You May Have Forgotten About:
Out of the returning receivers, Lorenzo Joe is the one who produced the most statistical production per-snap in 2015.
One Ray of Sunshine:
Listen to what Keyarris Garrett told me at the combine: “I leaned a lot from Coach Gilbert, he stayed after practice with me, we really worked on my routes; he said he noticed we needed to work on my curl routes I was running playing H and my go-routes. He showed me that he wanted me to be great. So I figured - ‘if he want me to be great, why not take the time and stay after practice? Why not do it?’ I’m glad he did that for me.”
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Next: One Thing About Spring Football: Defense
