OT: Political Thread( read at own risk)
- Thread starter FlourBluffHorn
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Venison pastrami cure process started today & will be ready to hit the smoker Saturday. Mmmm Mmmm Mmmm!
Hello. I'm from Saudi Arabia. If you get out of line as a citizen, we will bone saw you. Then we will pretend you were abducted by aliens.
Look. Them dudes just lost a huge chunk of production to the US. We are literally kicking their a$$ in oil production. They don't want cheap oil. They just want everybody to see their strength. "We can turn this spigot on and drown you all in oil. Don't mess with us.".
The problem is, their entire entitlement economy is built on oil being above a certain price. Did you know that every Saudi citizen gets a monthly check from the government as an allowance. No kidding. Look it up. Everyone of them. So it's in their best interest to keep oil high.
Now, are you ready for the real kick in the pants?
Remember when oil was at $120 a barrel? Then the fracking in Texas really took hold. We figured out how to do it faster, smarter and cheaper. So the saudis', in an attempt to run the mom and pop and smaller companies off, cranked up production. And nothing happened. So they did it again. And little happened. So they did it again and they almost bankrupted their entire economy........... or so it seemed.
A couple of years later, I'm meeting with an opec oil minister from a company I can't disclose. I'm pouring over Saudi bank notes looking for something and then I see it.
One of the national banks that will go unnamed, had its profits posted on this P&L document.... from 2013..... when oil was still high. There were massive profits, as you would expect.
Then I get to diving into the 2014/2015 numbers. The year that oil started to free fall in price. Guess what I found? That same bank made $100 billion dollars MORE than they had the previous year. $100 BILLION more.
"That can't be right"........I thought. I tucked that little nugget away until a couple months later when I met with an African OPEC member that will go unnamed as well. I'm pouring over their stuff and low and behold..... here's an African bank that also had an increase in profits when oil bottomed out. No where NEAR what the saudis had.... but profit none the less.
Then it hit me........ those fvckers all got together and agreed to increase production while using their financial institutions to "short" oil on the sly. They cleaned up. It was insane what they had done. Any repercussions? Nope.
Guys, I've seen behind the curtain in the oil industry. There's no shortage. There's so much fvcking oil out there (like diamonds) that this train isn't stopping in your lifetime, your kids, or your grandkids. There are formations out there that we know about that are massive..... we just lack the tech to get to it........ for now.
Do some math and figure out if someone shorted oil last month on 1 million barrels and was able to make play today on a 4 dollar drop, what they would have made. Your mind will be blown.
There hasn't been a shortage for a few years now. One of the reasons oil was expensive was because the "new" oil was being pulled up at ultradeep (and ultra expensive) offshore rigs. But take a look at offshore rig construction for the last 4 years and for the foreseeable future. Nothing...
New formations that require innovative drilling solutions won't be tapped for decades because fracking is cheap and plentiful. Only regulation (which is overly due IMO) will slow down US fracking production.
I have to agree on the rig counts. The construction and creation of new rigs just isn't there. The result will be sky high oil prices and gas prices until 2026 or so.... It will start this spring b4 summer driving season.
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Why do you think there will be a surge? We have more production than ever with fracking.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love for the barrel to go up. My team has gone from 30 to 10 since the downturn and we're all holding our breath for Q4.
Tax cuts my friend. A much friendlier business environment, low unemployment. The deadwood is going to get burned this winter and then Spring will hit..... There is a giant Inverse head and shoulders pattern in bond market dating to 2012 (last chance to re-finance this winter.) Rates and oil prices are going to move quickly in 2019. Hold on, it's coming.
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Hmm, I'd love nothing more but there are wells being sat on until barrels hit $XX and then they will drill, oversupply market and the barrel will dip/keep steady.
Supply is far exceeding demand so I'm not sure how we will see a surge.
Without going into too many specifics (don't want you compromising yourself if that makes you uncomfy) what sort of outfit are you with and where do ya'll operate mostly?
I'd rather not say. Just work O&G upstream with contacts at major operators.
Nothing I've heard is "get ready for a huge surge." That's not even a murmur right now. The most optimistic line is that we cut ties/enforce sanctions on KSA on top of Iran and the barrel gets to $85 in 6 months.
O&G is quick to fire but even quicker to hire if they think the money is about to roll in. That ain't happening. It's a steady, slow crawl right now.
It would appear that would rule out west Texas. I only say that because when I was in odessa a couple of weeks ago to meet with Ana dark oh my goodness, I couldn't find a freaking hotel and had to drive to Pecos.
Bell..... aren't you in field services?
Bell..... aren't you in field services?
Again, land drilling and fracking is very cheap and plentiful. Just because drilling is hot out there doesn't mean the price of a barrel is going up. If anything, cheap and plentiful supply will drive down the price of a barrel.
No offense but you can't see it. It's like stepping on a fire ant mound, first there is a lull and then all hell breaks loose. We have been pumping TRILLIONS of dollars into the system since 2008, a lot of that cash is about to exit the market and go into real things like actual oil in the ground. Why do you think the fed has been so anxious on rates?
Lets see if I can explain this... The Fed is holding the vehicles (bonds) which created all those dollars that are in the market NOW! If 10 year rates continue to rise, they are looking at a 50% loss. They have to tank the markets by raising the fed funds rate, sell all those bonds when people are buying (market crashing) and then get back to business as usual. Central bankers never lose in the long run.
The net effect will be a rise in real things like oil. Not oil companies, etf's, etc... but real oil in the ground. Markets will recover but with the lack of any QE coupled with cost push inflation, most will opt for the commodity route over stocks.
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Did ya hear about the Scientist s that took a Roughneck and put him in a room by himself and then took a Tool Pusher and done the same and then took a company man and did the same, and gave the Roughneck some Ball bearings and said make what ya can with them, well, the Roughneck sat there and made a perfect pyramid with the bearings and then they brought the Tool pusher in the same room by himself and the scientist told what he thought, well, after a hour past they open the door cause he had just paced the room the whole hour and did nothing, the Scientist asked him what he was doing and he said he was wondering what color to paint them, then they took the Company man and put him in the room by his self and told him to do something with them, well, the Company man played with the ball bearings for a 10 mins and fell asleep in the corner
Hook'em
Hook'em
Clob you aren't welcome in Pecos I should of had you arrested out there and had you taken to the old pennzoil site and left you in the sulfur mines
Damn dude. Do you have a younger female family member that I copulated with or what? Why you mad at clob?
Never had the clap or any other VD. Honestly, I don't know how the hell I made it through college unscathed. I pray to little 8 pound 5 ounce baby Jesus almost every night about that.
And that's almost no BS.
sorry can't hold it. Obvious fake bomb scare right before the midterms so they can blame Trump is obvious. Demorats will stop at nothing to gain power.
Well, let me tell ya one better, The Train of Death is gonna be coming top Texas border and troops from Ft Hood or Polk, close the bridges down, no traffic moving, then Cartel gets pissed off cause product not moving across and then 7000 Demonstrators disappear and bridge opens back up and trucks start moving again with Cartel product and they happy campers and Army goes back to Hood and Life goes on without firing 1 shot , (on this side anyway) and Business as usual...
Hook'em
Hook'em
Tin foil hat is a little too tight there.
If you can believe it, a president who calls the left a violent mob, says the press is the enemy of the people, and just recently has been claiming to be a nationalist may be inviting those less mentally stable to give in to radical desires.
It's not like the right hasn't been involved with domestic terrorism before. Stop playing the victim card.
The Fed is anxious on rates because leaving them low would lead to hyperinflation in a tight labor market.
Let me ask you a simple question, what do you think West Texas Crude gets to during this massive surge you see coming? $100? $120? $150?
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