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OT: Stock Market 1/7 Bad News

clob94

Well-Known Member
Aug 25, 2014
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So I was just awoken by my senior trader in Beijing and the market is collapsing there. They opened the market and the sell off was so massive that the gov stopped trading for 15-20 minutes to let everyone regroup.... and when the market re-opened, the cliff jumping was worse. Gird your loins men. This could be another bad day like I warned you of a few months ago. I hope the Bulls rush in and grab some discounted stocks but...... I don't know if they can stop the flood. I give it 90% chance of being down..... I pray that I'm wrong. There's 2 trillion in hedge funds that can reverse it if the managers wait and jump in when they feel they bottom is near.... we'll see what happens.
 
Wow. Two halts is pretty bad and closed for the rest of the session.
 
I've been encouraging all my clients to move their assets and cash into whole life products. they are getting around 5% with no market risk and are tax free growth. Then when the market is right get back in and ride the upswing.

Companies like MetLife and New York Life were made for times like these.
 
I've been encouraging all my clients to move their assets and cash into whole life products. they are getting around 5% with no market risk and are tax free growth. Then when the market is right get back in and ride the upswing.

Companies like MetLife and New York Life were made for times like these.
ALL ??? Did you get an 8% commission ??? I have some JH whole life for estate protection, but I think dollar cost averaging into depressed sectors is far better!
 
ALL ??? Did you get an 8% commission ??? I have some JH whole life for estate protection, but I think dollar cost averaging into depressed sectors is far better!
It can be.......that's why there's risk reward. And you have to look at the specific depressed sector and ask yourself what the rebound period is likely to be. The reality is, we don't know----- especially in the energy sector. We are looking offshore currently for decent % in foreign banks but....... we'll see.
 
I've been encouraging all my clients to move their assets and cash into whole life products. they are getting around 5% with no market risk and are tax free growth. Then when the market is right get back in and ride the upswing.

Companies like MetLife and New York Life were made for times like these.
Wasatch - having just read and seen the movie The Big Short - one of the big issues was the guys guessed right on the housing bubble, purchased the swap contracts betting on a housing collapse, and were right ... BUT then they had to deal with the ability of the guy on the other side of the contract being able to pay.

So I've always wondered -- how can these insurance companies "guaranty" a certain rate of return? Aren't they in the market, taking your premium money and hoping to earn more than they have to pay you back? And if there is a complete market meltdown, isn't there the possibility that they won't be able to pay you back (i.e. Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros.)? I'm not doubting the usefulness of insurance. I just wonder how solid that "guaranty" is.
 
Soros is calling it a "crisis". If so, I hope we don't print more money to bail out the bailout that bailed out the TBTFs.
 
I wanted to catch up on everything,so I dusted off the Bloomberg channel that I used to watch so much. I see Betty Liu is still there. I had (have) a crush on that girl. She is still very "Caliente" and she appears to be pregnant.
 
well the most disturbing thing I heard this morning was that 2016 so far is mirroring 2008......ugghh....lost a bunch then :(
 
It can be.......that's why there's risk reward. And you have to look at the specific depressed sector and ask yourself what the rebound period is likely to be. The reality is, we don't know----- especially in the energy sector. We are looking offshore currently for decent % in foreign banks but....... we'll see.
Good points, but energy always comes back--the question is when? Buying into a dead cat bounce is being too eager. But the worst thing to do in a downturn is sell--it's too late.
 
Diadevic- most insurance companies have what's called "reinsurance" in order to cover themselves. Others can join investment pools that are backed by other insurance companies as well as banks (though not commercial banks). Many companies are required to keep cash on the side to leverage things like life insurance and annuities. So you combine all these methods together and that how the insured insure your money.

Now I know what you're thinking...."who's insuring the reinsurer?". Well, nobody. The American tax payer really. Yes, it all could go to hell in a hand basket but if it does, your money, gold, bonds, silver, will all be worthless anyway....... at that point the only hard currency will be seeds and bullets.
 
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Good points, but energy always comes back--the question is when? Buying into a dead cat bounce is being too eager. But the worst thing to do in a downturn is sell--it's too late.
with Iran entering the market and the Saudis trying to destroy the US shale business it may be a while. The earliest I heard was around June so take it for what it is. The Saudis are also killing themselves in this process and they had to stop subsidizing gas prices so it jumped from .16 cents a liter to .24 cents a liter....


http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/05/news/economy/saudi-arabia-oil-budget-gas/
 
Saudi is cutting their own throat to marginalize the shale industry in America as well as to keep China from exploring their own fracking abilities. Keep oil cheap and China can't afford to frack. Russia sees this play, and it costs Russia lots of money to get oil out of the ground, hence why Putin is in Crimea and trying to gain a foothold in Syria. Russian presence in the middle east at a choke point like syria, means he can control the flow across Europe from the north (which he already does) and through the south as well (Ukraine pipelines in Crimea) and if he wins in Syria, through the middle east. If you look at a map, Syria borders Turkey. The only way for Saudi, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar to get their oil out if the middle east is pipelines that run through Jordan and Syria into turkey and on to Europe. Their other method is on ships (way more expensive). These countries can't get their oil out through Iraq or Iran (for obvious reasons) .... so those pipelines in Syria and Jordan are key. If Iran wants to sell its oil, it will have to do the same, either put it on ships, or into pipelines that flow through Iraq and Syria and into turkey. There's one or two that flow directly from Iran to Turkey but, pfffff, Putin can blow thar up and blame it on anybody he wants.

Saudi sees this and now needs to combat it. Problem is they are running low on money. So they can ask us for help OR create some sort of Arab alliance (OPEC is all but defunct) and they can create this alliance under the umbrella of some other guise. ...... like say to fight terrorism..... pretty sure that's what they've already done. Get other nations to contribute and the use 10% of the money to fight terrorists and 90% to push back against russia. OR..... they can do something to scare up oil prices in the short term like say...... cut ties with Iran and bomb Iranian targets..... like they did last night.

17 years ago the President told us we were running out of oil. He was wrong. His wife was wrong, the VP was wrong........wrong wrong wrong. We are barely scratching the surface of shale production globally. Problem is that it's costly. In the Middle East you walk outside, stick a coffee straw in the ground and out pops oil. Shale production is much more costly and complicated, ergo, higher prices. So you have cheap oil trying to choke out expensive oil. But expensive oil has more military might than cheap oil. Russia has the ability to frack up in Siberia, but now infrastructure to transport it. It's cheaper for them to make a land grab in the Middle east and use that revenue to fund infrastructure for the future fracking if Siberia.
 
with Iran entering the market and the Saudis trying to destroy the US shale business it may be a while. The earliest I heard was around June so take it for what it is. The Saudis are also killing themselves in this process and they had to stop subsidizing gas prices so it jumped from .16 cents a liter to .24 cents a liter....


Then the Saudis exicuted the Shiete Cleric and Iran went postal....diplomatic relations severed I think....good stuff....get em killing each other.....most oil wealth was created in the country when oil was 50 cents to $2.00...We will come out of this ok

The only time someone promises 5 to 10% wealth appreciation without risk it comes from someone like Bernie madoff


http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/05/news/economy/saudi-arabia-oil-budget-gas/
 
Bell---- if you DO win the powerball--- I'll waive my investor fees for you......... sort of.
 
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ALL ??? Did you get an 8% commission ??? I have some JH whole life for estate protection, but I think dollar cost averaging into depressed sectors is far better!

The majority of my clients already had whole life policies, so it's just now advising them to protect their money.

Wasatch - having just read and seen the movie The Big Short - one of the big issues was the guys guessed right on the housing bubble, purchased the swap contracts betting on a housing collapse, and were right ... BUT then they had to deal with the ability of the guy on the other side of the contract being able to pay.

So I've always wondered -- how can these insurance companies "guaranty" a certain rate of return? Aren't they in the market, taking your premium money and hoping to earn more than they have to pay you back? And if there is a complete market meltdown, isn't there the possibility that they won't be able to pay you back (i.e. Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros.)? I'm not doubting the usefulness of insurance. I just wonder how solid that "guaranty" is.

Clob hit the nail on the head, the thing to remember about Insurance companies is that they are highly regulated by the government and are required to keep huge amounts of their holdings liquid. It's one of the reasons banks are so heavily leveraged in life insurance products. They get a much better return than any CD or money market, as much as 26 times more. It can also grow tax free is correctly setup.

During the great depression insurance companies carried a lot of people, by being able to have access to funds, people would put they money in whole life and use it as needed. James Cash Penney kept his clothing business afloat during the Great Depression by using his life insurance. Even Ray Crockett used money from his life policy to help him start McDonalds.

I really believe that Life Insurance companies like New York Life and MetLife are built for times like these.

Soros is calling it a "crisis". If so, I hope we don't print more money to bail out the bailout that bailed out the TBTFs.

I don't see crisis, I see opportunity to buy on the cheap.

well the most disturbing thing I heard this morning was that 2016 so far is mirroring 2008......ugghh....lost a bunch then :(

I wish I could say no, but we just don't know. I do seminars all the time and I tell people all the time, I don't believe in bad news because if you are prepared this is the perfect time to invest and make a killing. It's all about getting in at the right time and in many cases protecting your position with derivatives.

Good points, but energy always comes back--the question is when? Buying into a dead cat bounce is being too eager. But the worst thing to do in a downturn is sell--it's too late.

If we are looking at another 2008, then it's an opportunity to buy at a discount. Do we think Black Friday is disturbing? No it's a opportunity to buy that big screen smart TV at a cheaper price. In 2008 Ford was going for about 4 bucks a share by 2012 it was back to 18. The opportunity is there, this is just one of those entry points. Also keep in mind, we aren't making more oil so these oil companies aren't going anywhere.



Diadevic- most insurance companies have what's called "reinsurance" in order to cover themselves. Others can join investment pools that are backed by other insurance companies as well as banks (though not commercial banks). Many companies are required to keep cash on the side to leverage things like life insurance and annuities. So you combine all these methods together and that how the insured insure your money.

Now I know what you're thinking...."who's insuring the reinsurer?". Well, nobody. The American tax payer really. Yes, it all could go to hell in a hand basket but if it does, your money, gold, bonds, silver, will all be worthless anyway....... at that point the only hard currency will be seeds and bullets.

Again, no such thing as bad news, if you are prepared all news has an upside. I'm sure of one thing. Our economy will not completely collapse, we are still here, we can still build and work and create. That means economy. Things may not look the same and who knows what our government will do, but never fear, we are going to be okay.

I still think this is just a hiccup and we should still be fine. 2019 is when we are going to get worried. That is when the first of the Baby Boomers turns 65, after that we will be adding as many as 4 million people a year to Social Security and Medicare. This is likely going to overload the system by 2023.

The thing is, if we start creating more debt to our already insurmountable national debt, it' could accelerate the process.

I'm telling my clients the two biggest things to consider is Tax risk and Market Risk. Those two things are going to erode our nest eggs faster than anything else. After that it's going to be inflation risk as we find the only way to keep our government running is to just print more money this will flood the market and cause interest rates to skyrocket. Some economist think we will see cost of living hit as high as 20% and that will be due to out of control interest rates.

Sorry if I scared anyone, but again, keep in mind, if you are prepared you won't have to fear.
 
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2019 is when we are going to get worried. That is when the first of the Baby Boomers turns 65, after that we will be adding as many as 4 million people a year to Social Security and Medicare. This is likely going to overload the system by 2023
Bingo. No one is willing to address this. I bought some land. Now I just have to learn how to grow something edible.
 
2019????? that may be when the LAST of the baby boomers turn 65....they started turning 65 in 2011. I agree that the rolls are going way up, but us baby boomers got to 65 years ago.
 
2019????? that may be when the LAST of the baby boomers turn 65....they started turning 65 in 2011. I agree that the rolls are going way up, but us baby boomers got to 65 years ago.
Which reminds me I need to consider looking into buying some Pfizer stock:D
 
2019????? that may be when the LAST of the baby boomers turn 65....they started turning 65 in 2011. I agree that the rolls are going way up, but us baby boomers got to 65 years ago.

The baby boomers hit their peak from 1954 to 1964. In each of those years America saw a spike in babies born each of those years. over 4 million in each year. That was huge for a population of about 125 million at the time. In 2019 those born in 1954 turn 65. 2022 is the big year because that is when the people born in 1957 turn 65. If you didn't know, More babies were born in 1957 than any other year ever in this country.

Economist believe that by 2023 our entire budget will be taken up by interest payments on our debt, Social Security, and Medicare. 100% to those three things, where do we get the money to run the government and pay for military?

We can increase taxing the rich, but we all know that well is about to run dry. So where do we get the money? We will print it, we already are printing about 1 trillion a year to meet the short fall on our economy.

This is why we are going to see huge jumps in interest rates and cost of living in the future. Some economist anticipate jumps in costs of living as much as 20%.

Again, none of this is set in stone, there are many factors we can't account for such as what is happening in China, as well as what happens geopolitically around the world. These things are based on our current trajectory with regard to our spending, and our current economic situation.
 
Which reminds me I need to consider looking into buying some Pfizer stock:D
Coffins. Long term care facilities and funeral head stones.

You think I'm joking. Funeral arrangements are already incredibly high. Look for them to double in the next decade. People are dying to get into coffins.

Seriously folks, there is about to be the greatest transference of wealth in our nation's history. Baby boomers to my generation. 85% of them will be buried or entombed. The rest will be cremated or frozen in nitrogen or launched into space or vanish under nefarious circumstances. But they'll all need some former of after death preperations. Except the disappeared ones of course.
 
Coffins. Long term care facilities and funeral head stones.

You think I'm joking. Funeral arrangements are already incredibly high. Look for them to double in the next decade. People are dying to get into coffins.

Seriously folks, there is about to be the greatest transference of wealth in our nation's history. Baby boomers to my generation. 85% of them will be buried or entombed. The rest will be cremated or frozen in nitrogen or launched into space or vanish under nefarious circumstances. But they'll all need some former of after death preperations. Except the disappeared ones of course.

Funeral arrangements are high due to how nice the funeral home is. If you want momma or daddy in a nice place you are going to pay because of the up keep. There is always that not so nice funeral home that won't hurt your pockets. And cremations have caught on more with 50% now in America with it being more accepted and is a way cheaper alternative. There is money in the death business.
 
* 910 down for the first 4 days

Selling accelerated with a vengeance Thursday afternoon, with the Nasdaq landing in correction territory and the Dow ending down nearly 400 points as the 2016 global stock rout continued after more bloodshed in China's stock market, where a 7% plunge triggered the second trading halt this year.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 392 points, or 2.3%, to 16,514.10.

The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index is off 2.4% to 1943.09 and the Nasdaq composite lost 3% lower to 4689.43. The tech-heavy index is now 10% below its July record close of 5218.86, or in correction territory.
 
Funeral arrangements are high due to how nice the funeral home is. If you want momma or daddy in a nice place you are going to pay because of the up keep. There is always that not so nice funeral home that won't hurt your pockets. And cremations have caught on more with 50% now in America with it being more accepted and is a way cheaper alternative. There is money in the death business.
I had some neighbors told me that are going to donate their bodies to science at no Charge and only if you would not mind someone carving up your corpse.
 
Glad I put my money in fruit jars and buried at my fathers farm, people always gotta make more money, pretty soon money not gonna be worth a shit, you'll have to barter with other things the way the world is going, never could understand why you would pay someone to hold ya money when ya can hold it for nothing yourself.. that's them polyester and mustache guys working on ya...LOL!


wolf-of-wall-street_zpswcsytm41.jpg




Hook'em
 
As of 12pm-$FAZ up 5.45%,$NUGT up 9.6%, $TVIV up 16.14%, $UVXY up 16.4%, $VIX up 14.2%, $TZA up 5.5%, $EDZ up 6.3%, $JNUG up 6.1%. I called all these ETFs on Twitter this morning at 6:23am.
 
2/3 of Americans don't have an additional $500 for emergencies. I don't see a huge increase in cost of living, in a weak economy. Our economy works on supply and demand. If demand is low, because prices are too high, they must come down.

Huge jumps in interest rates? Lol. We are near zero now and our economy is weak. Look at the direction of corporate earnings-they are falling for the past 3 quarters. Decisions to raise interest rates are data dependent and is used to stimulate or taper spending and to stimulate or taper inflation to the 2-3% range.
 
Money managers are a waste of money. Most don't beat the market averages ($SPY). Funds charge load fees. Educate yourself and you can get better returns with your money. Over a 20 year period, buying the $SPY (no load fees) will yield a 7-8% return for even the most uneducated investor. In an environment like this week (and you are conservative), just switch it from the $SPY to the $SH.
 
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2/3 of Americans don't have an additional $500 for emergencies. I don't see a huge increase in cost of living, in a weak economy. Our economy works on supply and demand. If demand is low, because prices are too high, they must come down.

Huge jumps in interest rates? Lol. We are near zero now and our economy is weak. Look at the direction of corporate earnings-they are falling for the past 3 quarters. Decisions to raise interest rates are data dependent and is used to stimulate or taper spending and to stimulate or taper inflation to the 2-3% range.

76% of Americans live from paycheck to paycheck. tightening or losening money isn't just about the Fed. When our government is printing 4 trillion dollars a year to keep their doors open. The money we spend won't be worth the paper it is printed on. One of the primary drives of COL is healthcare costs which right now is increasing at about 6% a year. Using the rule of 72, you can expect healthcare costs to double in 12 years. which is true but for the fact that Obamacare is going to be turning over the cost of Medicade back to the states who will in turn pass it on. So that 12 years will accelerate to about 8 years pretty fast.

Money managers are a waste of money. Most don't beat the market averages ($SPY). Funds charge load fees. Educate yourself and you can get better returns with your money. Over a 20 year period, buying the $SPY (no load fees) will yield a 7-8% return for even the most uneducated investor. In an environment like this week (and you are conservative), just switch it from the $SPY to the $SH.

You are correct, most money managers under perform the major indexes. I prefer using index based investment products. Voya has a nice indexed annuity I've put money into.
 
ALL ??? Did you get an 8% commission ??? I have some JH whole life for estate protection, but I think dollar cost averaging into depressed sectors is far better!
Whether he did or didn't, the answer to your question is... of course not. Very perceptive of you. An all debt portfolio (whole life insurance is a loan to the insurance company) will underperform a more diversified one over an investor time horizon. In other words, owners (stock) will make more than lenders (debt) over longer time horizons (investor). And dollar cost averaging is a good way to mathematically leverage your purchases so that your cost per share is less, and prevents you from attempting to time the market- the great destroyer of investment performance. I am both insurance and securities licensed btw, so I have no bias other than suggesting the historical realities.
 
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The United States remains the best place to invest for profits in the world. Therefore, foreign investors will continue to purchase US securities. This helps the dollar maintain its value. Despite the Fed printing more dollars, the US dollar is worth more against all major currencies-look at the index. The only thing taking out the US market is a global collapse that takes down all markets-even that is temporary, and we surge to greater heights.
 
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