From another post>>>>>>>>> credit the dude below.
Inspired by
@OwlsAndHorns ‘s great threads over the weekend (THREAD #1 / THREAD #2), I decided to take a deeper look at how Charlie stacks up to his peers. So, I researched every game, coached by every coach, from 1973 to present at the following Blue Blood & near Blue Blood programs: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas, and USC. In total, 99 different coaches coached at least 1 game, with 84 of them coaching at least 29 (the same number Charlie has coached at Texas).
While it’s easy to compare Charlie’s record vs the tenure of these coaches, it doesn’t give you an apples to apples comparison. So, I specifically looked at how Charlie’s first 29 games compared to the first 29 games of those 81 coaches. The results aren’t surprising, but they are depressing nonetheless. Out of those 81 coaches, Charlie’s winning percentage is tied for the 4th worst.
31.0% - John Blake, Oklahoma
31.0% - Curley Hallman, LSU
41.4% - Charley Pell, Florida
44.8% - Charlie Strong, Texas
44.8% - Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
44.8% - Doug Barfield, Auburn
44.8% - Johnny Majors, Tennessee
48.3% - Derek Dooley, Tennessee
48.3% - Mike Shula, Alabama
48.3% - Butch Jones, Tennessee
Those are the only coaches whose record in their first 29 games was below .500. So, it’s pretty obvious Charlie has had one of the worst starts of any coach at any elite program in 40+ years.
While it doesn’t paint a pretty picture, it also doesn’t paint the entire picture. So next, I looked at how coaches who had a mediocre start finished up. In my book, 7-5 is pretty mediocre. That’s a winning percentage of 58.3%. So, I pulled every coach that had a winning percentage of 58.3% or worse in his first 29 games, and looked at his record for every game AFTER those first 29. In total, 20 coaches basically averaged the equivalent of a 7-5 season or worse in their first 29 games. Of those 20 coaches, only 3 of the 20 coaches actually improved their winning percentage by at least 10 percentage points: Charley Pell at Florida, Johnny Majors at Tennessee, and John Cooper at Ohio State. But, Cooper was the ONLY one that averaged better than 66.7% (the equivalent of an 8-4 regular season) in those games. His winning percentage in all games after the first 29 was 74.4%, which is the equivalent of going 9-3. Said another way, given time, history shows it’s highly unlikely a coach recovers to become elite.
So, what of the coaches that actually did become elite from those 81? 25 of them combined to win 37 National Championships. The lowest winning percentage of an eventual NC winner in his first 29 games was a tie between Bobby Bowden & Lou Holts at 65.5%.
65.5% - Bobby Bowden, Florida State
65.5% - Lou Holtz, Notre Dame
69.0% - Pete Carroll, USC
69.0% - Mack Brown, Texas
69.0% - Howard Schnellenberger, Miami
69.9% - Danny Ford, Clemson
Those were the only coaches that started under .700. And, 13 of the 24 actually started .750+. That tells you that coaches that are going to be elite flash early. They may have a rocky first year, but they’re cranking by year two. In fact, numerous coaches won their first NC early in their tenure.
Won NC in 1st year:
* Larry Coker
* Dennis Erickson
Won NC in 2nd year:
* Bob Stoops
* Barry Switzer
* Gene Chizik
* Urban Meyer (Florida)
* Jim Tressel
Won NC in 3rd year:
* Nick Saban (Alabama)
* Gene Stallings
* Lou Holtz
* Dan Devine
* Urban Meyer (tOSU)
* Barry Switzer
* Pete Carroll
* Lloyd Carr
* Les Miles
* Dennis Erickson
* John Robinson
Won NC in 4th year:
* Pete Carroll
* Urban Meyer (Florida)
* Jimbo Fisher
* Jimmy Johnson
* Danny Ford
* Nick Saban (LSU)
Here’s where the data is staggeringly condemning of Charlie……..of the 37 NCs won, 24 were won in their first 4 years on the job! In fact, of those 25 NC winning coaches, only Mack Brown, Phil Fulmer, Steve Spurrier, Tom Osborne, Bobby Bowden, and Howard Schnellenberger didn’t win their first NC within their first 4 years. Just think about that for a minute. Of the 25 coaches at those 17 programs that won NCs, 19 of them won their first NC within 4 years on the sidelines. And in the case of Bowden & Schnellenberger, they were building programs that no one even knew existed before they took the helm. We can cross fingers & toes, shake Magic 8 Balls, and say all the prayers we want……….there has never been a coach in the modern era at any quality program that has started as poorly (or even as close to as poorly as Charlie), and gone on to greatness. John Cooper is the only one that came close.
So then, if history shows us Charlie isn’t going to become an elite coach, what does history suggest about how to proceed. This is where it’s interesting. If you’d asked me whether it was better to fire a coach mid-season or at the end of a season, I’d have said “end of a season”, b/c I would think an interim coach would fare worse. But, the data says otherwise. Check this out. These are the coaches from those 17 programs that were fired mid-season, and how their replacements fared.
1984 Florida – Galen Hall (8-0) took over for Charley Pell (1-1-1).
1992 Tennessee – Phil Fulmer (4-0) took over for Johnny Majors (5-3). Won the Hall of Fame Bowl.
1998 Auburn – Bill Oliver (2-3) took over for Terry Bowden (1-5).
2008 Clemson – Dabo Swiney (4-3) took over for Terry Bowden (3-3). Lost the Gator Bowl.
2013 USC – Ed Orgeron (6-2) took over for Lane Kiffin (3-2). Quit before the bowl game b/c he was passed over for the HC job.
2015 Miami – Larry Scott (4-2) took over for Al Golden (4-3). Lost the Sun Bowl.
2015 USC – Clay Helton (5-4) took over for Steve Sarkisian (3-2). Lost the Holiday Bowl.
In every single instance, the interim coach performed as well or better than the fired coach. And what’s really interesting is 4 of those 7 coaches performed well enough to get offered the permanent job, with 3 of them going on to become pretty darn good coaches (Dabo, Hall & Fulmer). It seems assigning an interim coach mid-season is a great way to get an on-field interview with an up & coming assistant, while trying new ideas that may improve the season beyond what the lame duck coach would have been able to do.
On a side note, the only coaches in the group to have at least 3 Top 5 finishes and not win a NC are Fred Akers & Mark Richt. I found that interesting. Every other coach that hit that mark won a NC. Also, the only coaches who coached at least 5 seasons, won over 75% of their games, and didn’t win a NC are Frank Solich (Nebraska) & Earle Bruce (tOSU). 23 coaches had a +.750 winning percentage. 21 of them won NCs. Only 6 NC winning coaches started with a winning percentage under 70% in their first 29 games, and all of them were over 65%. So, there is a 0.01% chance Charlie becomes the first coach to lose half of his games the first 3 years, then goes on to win a NC
