Using Hurricane Harvey in Houston as a something of a small example, LA has a HUGE problem. Let's look at a few things.
1. In Houston there was a resumption of water, electric, gas and wastewater services almost immediately. In LA? Can any of those services be salvaged? Or will they have to start from square one. A big factor in the cost and desirability of a rebuild.
2. California regulations. Will building codes be upgraded? Will they double down on environmental regulations? Require affordable housing?
3. Rebuild costs. Will replacement costs plus 50% even be a practical estimate? Where will materials come from? Lumber, concrete, steel, plumbing supplies, sheetrock. How can they even supply those materials at the scale of a total rebuild?
4. Walk away? Have a mortgage? Unless you are ridiculously rich (at least in the top 1%, maybe more like the top .5%) can you even begin to afford to rebuild? Especially when everyone is either uninsured or underinsured. Will we look at something like the 1950's where you drive through an empty subdivision of dirt lots. No trees or vegetation and just surveyor flags marking off lots. Exactly how much appeal will that involve?
Rebuild time? It will be at least 5 years before there is any rebuild of any significance. Heck, debris removal may take 18 months? Where will all of that debris go? Another California environmental fight? Grow some plants on bare lots?
Abandon LA? how many will look at teh time and cost to rebuild and decide to abandon LA? If so, where do they go? Right now ARizona is the most southern and eastern county of California. A boom in Phoenix real estate? Does Texas get a bump from relocations? This is not the standard disaster like a flood where the impact is felt most severely in the low lying poor areas. This is thousands or tens of thousands of multi-million dollar residents that are now homeless.
1. In Houston there was a resumption of water, electric, gas and wastewater services almost immediately. In LA? Can any of those services be salvaged? Or will they have to start from square one. A big factor in the cost and desirability of a rebuild.
2. California regulations. Will building codes be upgraded? Will they double down on environmental regulations? Require affordable housing?
3. Rebuild costs. Will replacement costs plus 50% even be a practical estimate? Where will materials come from? Lumber, concrete, steel, plumbing supplies, sheetrock. How can they even supply those materials at the scale of a total rebuild?
4. Walk away? Have a mortgage? Unless you are ridiculously rich (at least in the top 1%, maybe more like the top .5%) can you even begin to afford to rebuild? Especially when everyone is either uninsured or underinsured. Will we look at something like the 1950's where you drive through an empty subdivision of dirt lots. No trees or vegetation and just surveyor flags marking off lots. Exactly how much appeal will that involve?
Rebuild time? It will be at least 5 years before there is any rebuild of any significance. Heck, debris removal may take 18 months? Where will all of that debris go? Another California environmental fight? Grow some plants on bare lots?
Abandon LA? how many will look at teh time and cost to rebuild and decide to abandon LA? If so, where do they go? Right now ARizona is the most southern and eastern county of California. A boom in Phoenix real estate? Does Texas get a bump from relocations? This is not the standard disaster like a flood where the impact is felt most severely in the low lying poor areas. This is thousands or tens of thousands of multi-million dollar residents that are now homeless.
