As currently stands (by Rivals), top 10 in-state recruits that UT has a legitimate shot?
Having a “legitimate shot” can be somewhat subjective, but go with the following guys based off of Rivals’ rankings:
Anthony Hill
Javien Toviano
Rueben Owens
Bravion Rogers
Ryan Yaites
Johntay Cook
Braylon James
Malik Muhammad
Avion Carter
Dalton Brooks
As I typed that list, I realized that there are only a few that I would consider real longshots (David Hicks, TJ Shanahan, Jalen Hale, Jordan Renaud and Peyton Bown, who is committed to Notre Dame).
Is Tyler Johnson officially done or is that still up in the air? What about Ishmael Ibraheem?
Johnson is still listed on UT’s roster but so are guys like Rafiti Ghirmai, Chris Adimora and B.J. Foster so don’t pay attention to that. We’ve been told Johnson’s no longer in the program and with the OL haul coming in, I wouldn’t expect that to change. Ishmael Ibraheem is still on campus but I haven’t heard anything about his status in the program. I’ll be mildly surprised to see him make an impact at this point.
Best DL and OL 23 recruit Texas has a better than 40% chance to land?
Best two linemen you would predict for Texas if signing day was this month?
I really like Jaydon Chatman so he’d be in that group for both questions. The second OL is tough with that 40% bar, but go ahead and give me Connor Stroh, also as one of the two answers to your second question.
DL with a better than 40% chance is tough because most of those guys are keeping things pretty open but don’t sleep on the possibility of UT landing DE Avion Carter. He’s supposed to visit Texas in April so I’ll put him in that group. The second one would be a toss-up between Ashton Porter and Ansel Nedore.
How many linebackers do we take in this class?
Pinning down numbers for any position aside from maybe quarterback is always a guessing game this early in the stage because we have to watch for transfers, attrition, overloading at other positions (like Texas did with the OL in 2022), etc. All that being said, I would expect a decent-sized group of three or four linebackers.
Explain what you can and can't do with NIL. I've heard that you can't pay a player to play at a certain school but it appears that we (OL $50,000 deal) and Aggie have done just that.
I don’t have the fine print in front of me, but basically you can’t make any formal deals with high school prospects. Not in the state of Texas anyway. If you do, that prospect could lose his or her high school eligibility. You’re correct that every OL that Texas recruits knows about the Pancake Factory NIL program, but that can’t kick in until a player is signed and enrolled in school.
Does Texas land Rueben Owens?
I almost get the impression that the Longhorns’ chances in this one hinge on whether or not Texas lands Arch Manning, and since I went on the record last week of putting Texas at slightly above 50 percent with Arch, by logic I’d have to do the same with Owens.
How concerned are you about 2023 recruiting? We seem to be trending in wrong direction for the top flight recruits we really need.
I never get concerned about recruiting, but I can certainly understand why fans do. I wouldn’t hit the panic button by any means, but Texas does seem to be playing from behind, or muddled up with a big group of other schools, with many of the program’s top targets. It’s a byproduct of going 5-7 and you’re probably not going to see Texas gain a ton of momentum in the 2023 class until the fall, or possibly this summer if someone like Manning decides to jump on board early.
We know Ketch's take on Arch Manning (strong Texas lean/Texas's to lose); what's your belief? Do you think, today, that Texas lands him?
(This is a gut-feel question, not a prediction question. Everyone and their cousins should bet the field if asked to make an objective or "official" prediction. I'm more curious just about your own gut feel at the moment, if that makes sense.)
I’m not sure I’ve ever heard @Ketchum call Manning a lean to Texas. Maybe I’ve missed it. I have, very cautiously, and yes I’d still put my money on Texas as things stand today.
The next question … if Manning does choose Texas, when will it happen. There’s been speculation for a solid year that he’ll be committing at any moment, but sources close to Manning have him waiting until the fall to see how things go with the schools on his list. Makes sense since Manning doesn’t want to be part of a “rebuild.” It almost feels like Texas just needs to give Arch a reason to pick the Longhorns … win some games, show him the program is heading in the right direction and I like Texas’ chances.
2023 recruiting is off to a slow start. Should we be freaking out or is this the new norm?
I mentioned above that I certainly wouldn’t freak out, but Texas is facing a fairly tall task of building some momentum in the off-season. The Longhorns have only one commitment whereas schools like Notre Dame, Georgia, Baylor and Arkansas are sitting at nine pledges and Texas Tech has a whopping 13 early commitments.
Next commitment?
I’ll stick with Ashton Porter. He told us recently he wants to take his time, but I could see him making an earlier move than expected to help build some momentum.
How many WR's are we taking this cycle and which ones do we land?
I’ve got Texas taking four receivers in the 2022 class, but it almost feels like offensive line last year where new WR coach Brennan Marion will take as many guys as he can get if they’re elite players. Predicting the commitments this early is always tough and I’m not even sure I could confidently find four names right now that I think will be Longhorns.
Do you think we'll be able to take a full class in 2023 or should we expect a smaller class?
Any updates on the portal? We know Mathis is waiting until he graduates, but is there anyone else that may commit sooner?
Crunching the scholarship numbers is as difficult as it’s ever been, with players having the option of using COVID years, the NCAA allowing teams to bring in players to replace those that leave, etc. Until I hear differently, I’ll assume that Texas will take a full class due to normal attrition.
Texas did offer Vanderbilt safety De’Rickey Wright, so file his name away. Things are pretty slow right now as most guys will likely wait until after their spring seasons conclude before jumping in the portal.
Rate the “Class Of Beef” in order from 1-7.
Good question, and a tough one because I could see any of the signees being impact players. If I’m ranking them in order of NFL odds, I’ll go with Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Cameron Williams, Neto Umeozulu, Cole Hutson, Malik Agbo and Connor Robertson. I went back and forth on shuffling Cam Williams/Neto and Agbo/Robertson.
We currently sit with more 2024 commits than 2023. It sounds like Manning is not going to be our designated class ring leader because of the timing of his decision in order to help recruit a ton of the top players to the class even if he does commit to the good guys since he is not expected to make a decision until the fall. With that said along with the trend in 2023 in delaying decisions, do you think March spring visits gets us any of the ‘23 guys commit wise? (I feel like the costs for going 5-7 is an ever mounting list right now but I understand why)
I think I heard we put another offer out for another in state running back for 2023. Seems like we are carpet bombing strategy this year. I get it that we don’t want to rely on Owens because his recruitment is reminding like Evan Stewart but is this just the new norm with Tashard Choice?
I will throw in a couple of non-recruiting just for fun… Early score prediction for Bama game (you can change later)? We make it past the first weekend of the NCAA tourney for the first time it what seems to be ever under first year coach Beard?
The short answers …
Yes, I would expect Texas to get a commitment or two in the spring. I just can’t see the coaches going into the summer with only one pledge in the 2023 class.
You’re right that Texas has extended a lot of scholarship offers, and I tend to agree with you that it’s probably the new norm with Tashard Choice on staff. Choice has offered a bunch of guys, both at running back and other positions. Him, Brennan Marion and Bo Davis seem to take a similar approach in handing out offers.
Early score prediction for Bama … man, I’m not sure I even want to answer that. I would expect Bama to get in the 40s and Texas to probably be in the 20s. And no, right now I don’t think I could comfortably pick Texas to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. I’ll duck now.
Jason,
I know it’s early but please give us your most likely defensive backfield for this class. We already have Johnson. Who else do we get?
Texas has so many defensive back offers on the table, it’s one of the positions that is the most difficult to predict. If I’m forced to pick a class, give me Javien Toviano, Bravion Rogers, Chance Rucker and Jayven Anderson as four guys that really like Texas.
Have you heard anything funny from any recruit about their take on Brian Kelly’s recent approach to recruiting? I realize no one is going on the record, so anonymity is cool, but I’m curious about the temperature in the room with young people seeing what appears to me to be a real life Steve Buscemi meme.
I honestly have not, but that’s not something I’d ask about either. Don’t really have a feel for that one.
1. Made a $100 bet with an Aggy when they hired Jimbo he’d never win a (real) NC. B/S: I win this bet.
2. B/S: Texas wins (at least) one game in the tourney and one game in Omaha.
Buy that you win the A&M bet, but it might be a hell of a lot closer than you and everyone else on this board wants it to be.
And buy on the second. Texas should win a game in the NCAA Tourney and this team looks like a legit Omaha contender.
Late with the question, but what position do you think is the strongest in the state for the 2023 recruiting class?
I get the feeling either WR or DB has that mantle.
Those are good choices. Of those two, I’d probably favor WR because it has some top-heavy talent and quite a bit of depth as well. Guys like Jalen Hale, Johntay Cook, Jaquaize Pettaway, Braylon James, Jonah Wilson and Ashton Cozart are all big-time players. That doesn’t even include Jaden Greathouse, who could fall into that grouping as well.
I have the question along the lines of some others in this thread, my big question is do you think now that we have seen what limits can be pushed in this new world of "NIL" (or at least the guise of NIL) by A&M in buying their #1 recruiting class, do you think that we let that happen again?
I just cannot see the Texas brass letting that fly for more than one year. Credit to A&M for pushing the boundaries (whether they be legal or not because obviously there are no repercussions) but now they showed their cards of what they are about and, more importantly, guided the way for others to catch up to them. I think they caught most of CFB off guard at the end of last recruiting cycle because we all know it was not the 8-5 season that they had.
I wouldn’t necessarily agree that A&M caught everyone off guard with its use of NIL. I would tend to agree that the Aggies caught everyone off-guard with hauling in an all-time recruiting class, but you also have to remember that Jimbo Fisher and his staff were recruiting very well before NIL became a thing. A&M has had classes that have an average ranking of No. 5 in the last four classes.
--- Interested in sponsoring the Recruiting Q&A and 3-2-1, email me at jason@orangebloods.com.
