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Sark - The Stats Don’t Lie

swlonghorn

I wear Star Wars now. Star Wars is cool.
Gold Member
Apr 5, 2006
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Austin
Let me preface by saying that I understand several things:

1) The problems with our football program are multi-faceted, dating back several years:

• Hires that have affected football (University Presidents, Athletic Directors, Head Coaches, Assistants)
• Players that are overrated in talent, don’t live up to expectations, don’t fit in schemes, don’t give effort, etc.
• Turnover in coaching staffs in 9 years: 4 Head Coaches (Mack, Charlie, Herman, Sark), 7/9 Offensive Coordinators (Applewhite, Watson, Norvell, Gilbert, Beck/Herman, Yurcich, Flood/Sark), 7 Defensive Coordinators (Diaz, Robinson, Bedford, Strong, Orlando, Ash, Kwiatkowski).


I posted some of this on talent a couple of weeks ago, and I’m going to post it again because I still think it’s relevant.

We have the talent to beat the 8 “lesser” Big 12 teams (we have WAY more talent than those teams do) and compete with ou, and we always have. We just do absolutely nothing with what we have.

We have a rot in our culture (whatever that is is up for discussion). We have had 4 coaches in 9 years, none of whom have been above average in that time, sometimes abysmal. That’s an awful lot of turnover (not that it wasn’t necessary). We have bad personnel decisions, bad player relations, bad game prep, bad in-game adjustments, bad time management, bad schemes, bad play calling, bad coaching, in and out of game, the list goes on… We have little to no player development. So, we get in major talent, but then we do nothing with it. We have coaches without a clue and players who end up giving up, mentally and/or physically on them and end up quitting the team altogether (portal, leaving football, etc). [There is far too much attrition at this University.]

And this is the cycle we have been in for the better part of a decade. 12 seasons ago, Mack Brown made the decision to copy Nick Saban’s pro-style offense, completely throwing aside the fact that we had recruited and filled an entire roster of players to play a spread. He attempted, very stupidly and stubbornly to fit a square peg into a round whole, and we went 5-7 on the season. He had already been on cruise control in recruiting, and his lackadaisical mindset set us on the path of destruction that led us to where we are today. We had talent, but it wasn’t the right talent. In theory, we should have recovered. He wanted to switch the offense? Fine. We flounder a few years while we pick up the right players in recruiting.

So, why didn’t we recover? It’s so popular to say it’s “because Texas doesn’t have talent” and “Texas is the new Nebraska; we’ll never be relevant again.”

However, I really think that, unlike middle-of-nowhere, cornstalk Nebraska, kids are hungry for Texas to be relevant again. They’re waiting for the opportunity to jump on board and play for this juggernaut, flagship school (especially kids from Texas). But, they need to shown that we’re going to stop falling on our faces, first.

Mack Brown gave up on the job. He wasn’t really recruiting. He was picking low-hanging fruit. We could have had the cream of the crop in the country after our MNC. And then that HCiW thing with Muschamp? That wasn’t great, either. Hindsight is 20/20. Even if we had beaten Bama in 2010, he’d have taken over, and we’d be USC Jr.

Then, we decided to go with…Steve Patterson. And…Charlie Strong. This set of decisions, IMHO, set our program back five or six years, at the minimum. Recruiting under Charlie wasn’t awful. Just like recruiting under Herman wasn’t.

TEXAS NATIONAL RECRUITING RANKINGS 2010-2022

* Transitional Class
** Current (Unfinished) Class

247
Mack Brown
2010 2
2011 4
2012 2
2013 17

Charlie Strong
2014 17*
2015 10
2016 7

Tom Herman
2017 25*
2018 3
2019 3
2020 8

Steve Sarkisian
2021 15*
2022 7**


Rivals
Mack Brown
2010 3
2011 3
2012 2
2013 24

Charlie Strong
2014 20*
2015 12
2016 11

Tom Herman
2017 31*
2018 4
2019 4
2020 14

Steve Sarkisian
2021 14*
2022 5**

Talent isn’t the issue. Coaching. Player development. Culture. Personnel fit. We have to get to the underlying roots of the problem, rather than hacking at the limbs.

Yes, we need a massive overhaul on the OL. Yes, we need help at S and LB (I have yelled about two players at those positions all season). But that isn’t a program “talent” problem. All schools not named Alabama have that kind of issue. We need the right coaching staff…you know, probably not one that was a one-hit wonder (beat a P5 team in a bowl once) from a a mid-major (Strong, Herman), or a guy who was a bad head coach and is now a coordinator somewhere. You think when Saban retires that Bama is going to hire a coach like that? I don’t. I think they’re going to swing for the Dabos, Kirbys, and Ryan Days of the world. We laugh at aggy about the Jimbo contract (and we should, because really.) but at least they ponied up and spent the money on a coach they wanted who was a MNC winning coach. We’re going for little leaguers we hope can “learn on the job.”


Steve Sarkisian is 50-42 as a Head Coach. He is 12-24 against Top 25 opponents. He has an 0-22 record in games when trailing at the half.

Steve Sarkisian was 34-29 (24-21 PAC) as a Head Coach at Washington.

• 2009 5-7 (4-5 PAC, 7th)
• 2010 7-6 (5-4 PAC, T-3rd)
• 2011 7-6 (5-4 PAC, 3rd North)
• 2012 7-6 (5-4 PAC, 4th North)
• 2013 8-4 (5-4 PAC, 3rd North)

Steve Sarkisian was 12-6 (7-5 PAC) as a Head Coach at USC.

• 2014 9-4 (6-3 PAC, T-2nd South)
• 2015 3-2 (1-2 PAC)


Texas has 128 years of Football History. In that time, there are only four (4) seasons where they have had losing streaks of five or more games. One, of course, is this season. You have to go back to 1956, 1938, and 1936 to find the other three seasons. You know, 65, 83, and 85 years ago. Texas in 2021 has now lost six conference games for only the fifth time in history (2016, 2010, 1997, 1956). If Texas loses to Kansas State next Friday, they will have 7 conference losses for the first time in their history.

1936
2-6-1 (1-5 SWC)
5 game losing streak (mid season)

1938
1-8 (1-5 SWC)
8 game losing streak
Beat aggy end of season

1956
1-9 (0-6 SWC)
8 game losing streak to finish season

Steve Sarkisian is the first coach since Dana X. Bible in that 1937 season to start their tenure with a losing season. Those are literally the only two coaches in Texas football history to have a regular season losing record in their first season. And no coach at Texas has ever gone sub-.500 and gone on to be AP Top 10.

Out of 24 head coaches at Texas, since 1902, Steve Sarkisian is ranked dead last in winning percentage. This is after 11 games this season. This is already significantly worse than Charlie Strong.




As much as we talk about problems with the roster, and rightfully so, Steve Sarkisian took a team that was much better and drove it into whatever semblance of a football team you see today.

Last season, Tom Herman was fired after a 32-18 (22-13 Big 12) Head Coaching career at Texas, including a signature win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. His Longhorns last season finished the regular season 6-3 (5-3 Big 12) and went on to destroy Colorado in the Alamo Bowl to finish 7-3 on the year. It’s easily arguable that the Longhorns would have won two additional games against South Florida and Kansas, had they not been cancelled, due to Covid. A cancelled matchup against LSU was a tossup. So, a very possible 9-win team was immediately flipped into one of the worst teams in Texas Football’s 128 year history.

One of, if not the, major reasons Herman was relieved of his duties was due to the fact that recruiting had fallen off the map at Texas. Despite his teams not being blown out (three losses in 2020 were by a combine thirteen points), always having fight and not giving up in games, and winning a seemingly decent amount last season, Herman was not able to secure the signature of many of the state’s top players, including former Texas commit, Quinn Ewers and Texas legacies, James and Tommy Brockermeyer.

Steve Sarkisian hired what he, the Texas administration, fans, and media believed to be an all-star cast of assistants. They started the job and said they believed they had the talent to compete for the Big 12 this year. They looked to the portal to add a few pieces, namely at LB, DB, and RB. He chose not to shore up OL, as he apparently thought what the Longhorns had in the cupboard was adequate enough. The same went for WR, even though he got a huge commitment from former Michigan commit, Xavier Worthy, and QB. This was not supposed to be a massive rebuild. Steve Sarkisian believed he had what he needed to be competitive at Texas, even if some was needed.

Those decisions may be debated for years or decades to come, but the fact remains that the Longhorns weren’t competitive in the Big 12 this year. At all. In fact, they won’t even be going to a bowl game, something they did all four years, and won each time, under Tom Herman. The Big 12 is down this year. The games were there for the taking. Texas had four games where it led in the fourth quarter and found a way to lose. The loss to 1-8 Kansas at home, who was down to playing their 3rd string QB and hadn’t won a conference road game in 13 years, was unforgivable. There are no excuses that cover that one. None. Charlie Strong didn’t even do that.

Texas can’t afford to continue to make mistakes in hiring coaches. It’s not even about money. Texas decided to make a bold power move by jumping with Oklahoma into the SEC. They know the stakes are significantly higher. They can’t limp into the conference in 2023 (presumably) with a lame duck head coach, assuming Sark doesn’t drastically improve this team next season. Unfortunately, the data doesn’t give much hope that he will be able to do so.
 
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