There was an article earlier this week about how the Governor of South Dakota said her state should be an example to the rest of the country of how to navigate a pandemic without heavy-handed government mandates. So after reading that I decided to compare South Dakota with Austin on covid-19 cases to see if South Dakota really is an example to follow.
On the outset, you would think this would be an unfair comparison for Austin. The Austin MSA has almost three times as many people as South Dakota (2.2M vs 884K) and is 47 times more dense than South Dakota (524 vs 11 people per square mile). In addition, Austin is more diverse than South Dakota (28% minorities versus 14%) which is significant since minorities contract covid-19 at higher rates than white people. The only advantage Austin would have in this comparison would be those "heavy-handed government mandates" by the city and state governments.
However, when I compared the two areas, the raw case count was actually pretty similar.
Austin: 30K confirmed cases
South Dakota: 26K confirmed cases
South Dakota should not be this close to Austin in cases given all the advantages they have in terms of population density, and demographics. When I normalize for population, the real winner was apparent.
Austin: 1,364 cases per 100K people
South Dakota: 2,991 cases per 100K people
Also, South Dakota's 7 day moving average of new cases is 450 new cases per day whereas Austin's is only 85 new cases per day. If these rates hold, then South Dakota will pass Austin in confirmed cases in 10 days.
It seems like those "heavy handed government mandates" really do work and maybe South Dakota should consider Austin as an example for how to navigate this pandemic.
www.worldometers.info
On the outset, you would think this would be an unfair comparison for Austin. The Austin MSA has almost three times as many people as South Dakota (2.2M vs 884K) and is 47 times more dense than South Dakota (524 vs 11 people per square mile). In addition, Austin is more diverse than South Dakota (28% minorities versus 14%) which is significant since minorities contract covid-19 at higher rates than white people. The only advantage Austin would have in this comparison would be those "heavy-handed government mandates" by the city and state governments.
However, when I compared the two areas, the raw case count was actually pretty similar.
Austin: 30K confirmed cases
South Dakota: 26K confirmed cases
South Dakota should not be this close to Austin in cases given all the advantages they have in terms of population density, and demographics. When I normalize for population, the real winner was apparent.
Austin: 1,364 cases per 100K people
South Dakota: 2,991 cases per 100K people
Also, South Dakota's 7 day moving average of new cases is 450 new cases per day whereas Austin's is only 85 new cases per day. If these rates hold, then South Dakota will pass Austin in confirmed cases in 10 days.
It seems like those "heavy handed government mandates" really do work and maybe South Dakota should consider Austin as an example for how to navigate this pandemic.
South Dakota COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
South Dakota COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
