I don't think so....The more I think about it, he will get four years if they are "Competitive" in every game with 6-7 wins and a bowl win. This could suffice as long as everything is getting better throughout the year. The noise is simply noise.
I think competitiveness will play a role, but I think that next year's schedule will also play a role. I always try my hardest to not overreact... to tap the breaks and asses the entire situation... to try to be calm and rational about my opinions and decisions. I think my posts on the board generally back that up. That said, next year is going to be a tricky one for that among Longhorn fans (including myself). This year has been disappointing no matter how you look at it. Yes, I'm one of those that think that Strong came in under rather terrible circumstances and that, in a perfect situation, he'd get more time to fix everything. But recruiting can be fickle, and UT fans, boosters, and alumni know we should be winning in football. Both of those things are things that can get worse if either they fire coaches too fast, or if they let them hang on too long. From day one, I was in favor of the Coach Strong hire, but I also said that year three (and if year three showed signs of great potential, year four) would be the point when we find out if it's going to work or not, and whether we needed to move on or not.
So, it's win or move on time next season. And the schedule makes that tricky. It's definitely not the kind of schedule that Baylor or Tech (for two examples) have had at points in recent history, where they get a chance to compile a bunch of wins and show off, garnering some attention and notoriety (even if it's coupled with schedule criticism) before they actually play challenging games. We won't hear anyone saying "they're 5-0 going into the first game against an opponent with a pulse" or anything like that. We won't have early games as warm ups. The early games are going to be tough. And away from Austin. And knowing how negativity can snowball, it will take quite a bit of work for them to make it to the second half of the season without fans, boosters, and alumni already done with the season.
We start with a home game against
Notre Dame, which should probably fill the stands pretty well regardless, because it's game 1 and because it's Notre Dame. It would help if there was some buzz coming out of summer practices. We saw the reaction from the 2015 version of the game, so we know, everyone will be looking for competitiveness at least. This game will be a big deal in setting the tone for the rest of the season, win or lose.
Next we host
UTEP. This game won't be a big deal for our fans no matter what. Unless UT just looks bad in it. This is the game that we don't want to look competitive. If it does (or God forbid, if we lose), then that might be the season And Coach Strong's career.
After that, the team is away from Austin for a whiiiiiiiile, with 2 road games, TX/OU in Dallas, and a bye week. And that's really the toughest thing about the schedule, if you're trying to look at it from a perception perspective. There's a very good chance that, by the time the team gets back to DKR, the fans will have made up their minds whether they care about the second half of the season. Even if the team begins to improve around mid-season, and comes up with solutions that could potentially have them win most of the second half games, there's a decent chance that the stands (and how empty or full they are) will reflect whatever happened in the first five games.
A game at
Cal should probably be a little more manageable without Jared Goff, but it's still a power 5 opponent on the road. Granted, it's one that we should have/could have/would have beaten this year, but all the same, it's a pretty important game next year, particularly with what's coming up next.
Then we have a game at
Oklahoma State. Yeah, another game that we should have/could have/would have won this year, but didn't. And not an easy game. I don't know what all the Cowboys lose next year. Should we still think of them as being one of the top 4 teams in the Big 12?
And finally, there's the game vs.
Oklahoma in Dallas. It's the game that helped soothe the fanbase this year, but it's tough to imagine that OU won't be putting every bit of work in to win this one, starting the second this season ends.
So, that's 4 really big games, one "lite" game, and a bye week. And by then, I'd imagine that we'll have a pretty good idea whether the stands will be full or empty when
Iowa State comes to town. And even wins against the Cyclones and at
Kansas State the next week, wouldn't likely fix things for the team and the fans if they start the season 1-4 or 2-3 but the team isn't competitive in the 3 losses. 2-3 and competitive in the losses is the worst scenario where I could see fans even caring about the rest of the season, and honestly 3-2 or better seems like it might be what it would actually take.
It's not like there won't be plenty of chances after those first 5 games. ISU and KSU should be winnable games, as should KU and probably TTU. And Baylor and TCU both have to come to Austin, so if improvement was made and we win one or both of those, that'd be a big deal. It just seems like, between fan support and team moral, that everyone's mind may already be made up about the Charlie Strong era before kickoff against Iowa State on October 15th.
So, I'm not sure I'd put a win total on the season. There's a very good chance that the team will have to show improvement (and 2 to 3 wins at least) in the first 5 games to even consider what the full season win total might need to be.
