Texas BASEBALL - College Station Regional Preview

ZachattheDisch · May 30, 2024

The best time of the year is upon us. The NCAA baseball tournament is finally here!

64 teams. 16 Regional Hosts. 8 Super Regional Hosts. One Destination….OMAHA!

On Monday, the Horns determined their fate, which is a short road trip East to the College Station Regional as a 3 seed. The goal at Texas is always Omaha. We live in the real world though and the goal this year should be to try and survive to play another game.

The storylines are obviously all going to be about a potential Texas v. Texas A&M matchup, but first the Horns have to win the first game against a very talented team in Louisiana to set up that matchup. Much like last year, Louisiana cannot be overlooked.

For the Horns to advance, they will need to do something that they have not done very often this season…play complementary baseball. That means, they need a quality outing (6 IP, 3 Runs or less) from the starting pitcher, no defensive errors, and score at least 6 runs. Most importantly, the Horns will need to play for each other and raise each other up to pull off some upsets.

Quick look at the Bryan-College Station Regional

#1 Texas A&M Aggies: 44-13 (19-11 SEC)
#2 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns: 40-18 (23-7 Sun Belt)
#3 Texas Longhorns: 35-22 (20-10 Big 12)
#4 Grambling State Tigers: 26-26 (18-8 SWAC)

Notes on the Horns:

Texas is set to play its 8th road Regional since 2000 and is on the road for the 2nd consecutive season.
- 2000 – Texas won the Tempe Regional, eventually advancing to the CWS
- 2014 – Texas won the Houston Regional, eventually advancing to the CWS
- 2017 – Texas lost to Long Beach State in the Regional Final
- 2023 – Texas won the Coral Gables Regional, eventually losing in the Super Regional
NCAA Tournament Appearances (last): 63rd (2023)
- All-Time NCAA Regional Record: 154-57-1
Texas finished the season having won the last six Big 12 conference series, ending up having won 9 of 10 conference series and playing 3rd in the league.
- The Horns won 13 of the final 16 regular season games but went 0-2 in the Big 12 tournament.
The Horns had the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year in 2023. This season, the Horns have the Big 12 Player of the Year in Max Belyeu
After landing 8 selections to the All-Big 12 Teams in 2023, the Horns had 9 players selected this season
- First Team: Max Belyeu, Jared Thomas, Jalin Flores, and Gage Boehm
- Second Team: Peyton Powell
- Honorable Mention: Rylan Galvan, Will Gasparino, Max Grubbs, and Ace Whitehead
- Freshman Team: Will Gasparino
Horns have played in 29 games that were decided by three runs or less.
- In those games, Texas has a 17-12 record and hold a 7-5 record in one-run ball games

Series History against Regional Teams:

Texas v. Louisiana:

First Met: 1973
Last Met: 2023 (Texas won)
Series: Texas leads 34-8
NCAA Tournament: Texas leads 2-1

Texas v. Grambling:

First Met: 1985
Last Met: 1985 (Texas won)
Series: Texas leads 1-0
NCAA Tournament: Texas leads 1-0

Texas v. Texas A&M:

First Met: 103
Last Met: 2024 (Texas lost)
Series: Texas leads 244-131-5
NCAA Tournament: Texas leads 3-2

Major Storylines

Texas, Texas A&M, and Louisiana all went two and barbeque in their respective conference tournaments, while Grambling played six games in five days to win theirs.
- If you haven’t seen the bus celebration from Grambling when they were announced on ESPN for the tournament – do so, it was awesome.
None of the top three seeds in the Regional are riding a wave of momentum, but all are well rested.
On paper and from what I have seen live, Texas A&M is by far the best team in this Regional and one of the most consistent this season, which is why they are one of the betting favorites to potentially win the national title. A&M has several top-notch starting pitchers and a deep bullpen, combined with one of the best power hitting lineups in the nation.
- Louisiana has a solid pitching rotation, though it has been banged up as of late. Offensively, the Cajuns don’t have the same lineup depth top to bottom, but they do boast one of the premier shortstops in the nation in Kyle DeBarge.
- Texas has some of the best power numbers in the nation but can run very hot and cold offensively at times. In addition, the Horns have been plagued by inconsistent starting and bullpen pitch throughout the season, with the exception of closer Gage Boehm.
- Grambling is out-gunned and out-manned. With an ERA above 8, they are in real trouble against their opponents

Look at the Numbers:

RPI

Texas A&M: 2
Louisiana: 38
Texas: 47
Grambling: 235

STAT	TEXAS	TEXAS A&M	LOUISIANA	GRAMBLING
Batting Avg	.290	.302	.299	.313
OPS	.909	.986	.876	.896
Doubles	127	116	119	94
Triples	10	15	17	17
Home Runs	109	124	75	48
RBI	388	471	382	388
SLG %	.531	.567	.493	.470
Walks	232	355	198	272
Strikeouts	510	517	443	387
On-Base %	.378	.419	.383	.426
Stolen Bases	41-52	64-75	66-93	80-98
ERA	4.87	3.97	4.32	8.30
WHIP	1.47	1.24	1.32	1.88
Bases on Balls	242	178	245	320
Strikeouts	465	590	564	327
Wild Pitches	52	32	45	94
B/Avg against	.261	.234	.226	.291
Home Runs against	66	69	43	46
Errors	57	43	59	64
Fielding %	.973	.978	.972	.965

Game One Matchup:

#3 Texas Longhorns (35-22) v. #2 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (40-18)
When: May 31
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
Time: Friday at 5 p.m.
TV: ESPN2
Radio: AM-1300 The Zone/103.1 FM
Live stats: ncaa.statbroadcast.com

Potential Results:

If Texas wins their first game, they will play the winner of Texas A&M v. Grambling on Saturday at 8pm in the winner’s bracket.
If Texas loses their first game, they will play the loser of Texas A&M v. Grambling on Saturday at 2pm in an elimination game.

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Record (40-18, 23-7 Sun Belt)
- Home: 26-8
- Away: 14-5
- Neutral: 0-5
Cajuns are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but have lost their last two games
- Q1: 6-6
- Q2: 6-4
- Q3: 12-4
- Q4: 16-4
Louisiana is 8-7 against NCAA Tournament teams
Common Opponents:
- Vandy (both lost)
- LSU (both lost)
- Houston (Texas won series; UL lost)
- Texas State (Texas split 1-2; UL 3-0)
- Houston Christian: Texas won; UL lost)
19th trip to NCAA Regionals
- Last trip was in 2023 in the Coral Gables Regional where they were eliminated by host Miami
- In 2022, Louisiana came close to upsetting Top 8 national seed Texas A&M in the College Station Regional
- Last Super Regional appearance was in 2015

Projected Pitching Matchups:

Texas RHP Max Grubbs (5-4, 3.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 68.2 IP) v. Louisiana RHP Carson Fluno (4-0, 1.04 WHIP, 2.94 ERA, 13 starts, 52 IP)

Who is RHP Carson Fluno?

Senior from Wisconsin who spent his first two seasons at Madison Area Technical College.
In 2023, he went 4-1 with a 4.69 ERA and earned 3 saves on the season.
Has made 16 appearances this season, 13 of them being starts
- Avg IP: 3
- Avg Hits: 2
- Avg Runs: 1
- Avg Walks: 1
- Avg Strikeouts: 3
- Avg Number of Pitches: 54
Season Highs
- IP - 7 (Marshall 4/14)
- Strikeouts - 9 (Houston 3/3)
- Walks (low) - 0 (Georgia Southern 5/12)
- Hits (low) - 0 (Old Dominion 3/23)

Top Pitchers:

Andrew Hermann (5-3, 2.90 ERA, 12 starts, 62 IP)
Chase Morgan (4-3, 1 save, 3.29 ERA, 68.1IP)
LP Langevin (6-1, 7 saves, 3.75 ERA, 22 apps, 60 IP)
Carson Fluno (4-0, 2.94 ERA, 13 starts, 52 IP)
David Christie (2-1, 4 saves, 3.71 ERA, 24 apps, 51 IP)
Steven Cash (3-0, 3.86 ERA, 19 apps, 18.2 IP)
Jack Martinez (4-3, 2 saves, 4.71 ERA, 20 apps, 42 IP)

Offensive Leaders:

Kyle DeBarge (.361 avg, 1.152 OPS, 21 HR, 67 RBI, .723 SLG%, .429 OB%, 10-14 SB)
Trey LaFluer (.361 avg, 1.104 OPS, 11 HR, 39 RBI, .677 SLG%, .427 OB%, 9-11 SB)
Duncan Pastore (.321 avg, .829 OPS, 4 HR, 35 RBI, .437 SLG%, .392 OB%, 5-7 SB)
Jose Torres (.306 avg, .758 OPS, 2 HR, 31 RBI, .400 SLG%, .358 OB%, 1-1 SB)
John Taylor (.300 avg, .909 OPS, 9 HR, 37 RBI, .500 SLG%, .409 OB%, 4-6 SB)

Texas A&M Aggies

Record (44-13, 19-11 SEC)
Home: 32-3
Away: 9-8
Neutral: 3-2
Aggies are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have lost their last two games
Q1: 17-13
Q2: 5-0
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 18-0
Aggies are 16-11 against NCAA Tournament teams
38th trip to NCAA Regionals
Last trip was in 2023
Last Super Regional appearance was in 2022
Aggies have won a Regional 10 times

Top Pitchers:

Ryan Prager (8-1, 2.51 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 15 starts, 79 IP)
Brad Rudis (5-0, 1.67 ERA, 20 apps, 32.1 IP)
Evan Aschenbeck (5-1, 7 saves, 1.78 ERA, 25 apps, 55.2 IP)
Shane Sdao (4-1, 2 saves, 2.72 ERA, 18 apps, 43 IP)
Zane Badmaey (2-0, 1 save, 2.82 ERA, 15 apps, 22.1 IP)
Chris Cortez (8-3, 3.31 ERA, 20 apps, 49 IP)

Offensive Leaders:

Jackson Appel (.330 avg, .977 OPS, 10 HR, 38 RBI, .560 SLG%, .417 OB%, 12-14 SB)
Hayden Schott (.323 avg, .893 OPS, 6 HR, 51 RBI, .484 SLG%, .409 OB%, 1-2 SB)
Jace LaViolette (.321 avg, 1.246 OPS, 28 HR, 73 RBI, .796 SLG%, .450 OB%, 5-7 SB)
Gavin Grahovac (.319 avg, 1.061 OPS, 21 HR, 61 RBI, .647 SLG%, .414 OB%, 1-2 SB)
Braden Montgomery (.317 avg, 1.193 OPS, 26 HR, 80 RBI, .742 SLG%, .451 OB%, 5-7 SB)

Grambling State Tigers

Record (26-26, 18-8 SWAC)
Home: 10-7
Away: 9-12
Neutral: 7-7
Cajuns are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have won their last 4 games as they played 6 games in 5 days to win the SWAC tournament
Q1: 0-3
Q2: 0-4
Q3: 2-4
Q4: 24-14
Grambling are 0-7 against NCAA Tournament teams
3rd trip to NCAA Regionals
Last trip was in 2010

Top Pitchers:

Mason Martinez (12-2, 4.33 ERA, 16 starts, 112.1 IP)
Phillip Bryant (5-3, 8.74 ERA, 11 starts, 57.2 IP)
Javier Martinez (4-1, 5.05 ERA, 16 apps, 35.2 IP)

Offensive Leaders:

Kyle Walker (.394 avg, 1.143 OPS, 11 HR, 41 RBI, .627 SLG%, .516 OB%, 14-16 SB)
Cameron Bufford (.349 avg, 1.016 OPS, 9 HR, 56 RBI, .547 SLG%, .469 OB%, 14-16 SB)
Julian Murphy (.345 avg, .933 OPS, 4 HR, 42 RBI, .503 SLG%, .430 OB%, 3-6 SB)
Tiger Borom (.337 avg, .992 OPS, 4 HR, 45 RBI, .523 SLG%, .469 OB%, 16-17 SB)
Ashton Inman (.330 avg, .879 OPS, 5 HR, 49 RBI, .438 SLG%, .441 OB%, 0-1 SB)

D1Baseball Notes on the College Station Regional:

Most Exciting Player: Kyle DeBarge (Louisiana)
Best Hitter: Braden Montgomery (Texas A&M)
Best Defensive Player: Kyle DeBarge (Louisiana)
Best Pitcher: Ryan Prager (Texas A&M)
X-Factor: Jace LaViolette & Braden Montgomery (Texas A&M)
Best Starting Rotation: Louisiana
Best Bullpen: Texas A&M
Best Offensive Team: Texas A&M
Best Defensive Team: Louisiana

College Station Regional Prediction:

Texas A&M runs away with this one.
- They are a much more complete team on offense and pitching then their opponents.

Predicted Regional Winners:

Knoxville Regional: Tennessee
paired with
Greenville Regional: Wake Forest

Norman Regional: Duke
paired with
Tallahassee Regional: Florida State

Fayetteville Regional: Arkansas
paired with
Charlottesville Regional: Virginia

Tucson Regional: Dallas Baptist
paired with
Chapel Hill Regional: LSU

Lexington Regional: Kentucky
paired with
Corvallis Regional: Oregon State

Raleigh Regional: South Carolina
paired with
Athens Regional: Georgia

Clemson Regional: Clemson
paired with
Stillwater Regional: Oklahoma State

Santa Barbara Regional: UC Santa Barbara
paired with
College Station Regional: Texas A&M

Omaha Predictions:

Tennessee
Florida State
Arkansas
LSU
Kentucky
Georgia
Clemson
Texas A&M

Tennessee wins their first National Title

Big 12 Teams Regional Schedule (all times Central)

Oral Roberts at No. 9 Oklahoma (12pm) - Norman Regional
Dallas Baptist v. West Virginia (2pm) - Charlottesville Regional
Louisiana v. Texas (5pm) - College Station Regional
Alabama v. UCF (5pm) - Tallahassee Regional
Niagara at No. 13 Oklahoma State (6pm) - Stillwater Regional
Louisiana Tech v. Kansas State (7pm) - Fayetteville Regional

jholmestyle · May 30, 2024