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On the road again!
The Horns hit the road (well, air) and head to Kentucky this week as SEC play continues. After a week of baseball against dogs (Georgia Bulldogs and Houston Christian Huskies), Texas will take on the Kentucky Wildcats to try and improve upon their best start to a season since 2004.
On paper, the Cats are not nearly as wild or ferocious as the Dawgs of Georgia but represent another tough test for the Longhorns. Kentucky leads the SEC in stolen bases (19), hit by pitch (42), sac bunts (12), and have hit into the fewest ground ball double plays (3).
One issue that Kentucky has had during SEC play is errors. They have the third most errors in SEC play. That is the kind of thing that can add up and when the margins are so thing, it can cost you not just a game, but an entire series.
While the Wildcats are towards the bottom of the SEC in hitting home runs, they are near the top of the SEC in hitting doubles, so they do have some dangerous bats throughout the lineup. One of those dangerous bats and a guy to watch all weekend is freshman SS Tyler Bell. Considered a fairly high draft pick, Bell decided to opt out of the MLB Draft and make his way to campus and he has been a mainstay in the lineup since day one.
All this to say that hitting wise, Kentucky has been a tick better than the Horns in SEC play, albeit with the fact that Texas has been missing two of its best hitters for the past five games.
On the pitching front, Texas has a clear advantage as the numbers show. The Horns are currently number one in the SEC in ERA, Saves, Hits allowed, Runs, Earned Runs allowed, HR allowed, and Batting Average against.
Despite such a big gap in pitching numbers, the Kentucky starters have actually been quite good, though there is a marked difference between overall pitching numbers and their numbers against SEC competition. That difference between the two has largely been the bullpen though, so Texas will really need to get to the Kentucky pen and put pressure on them Friday so that it sets them up for success the rest of the weekend.
Despite all of this, Kentucky has played each of their opponents tough and have not been swept in conference play. The Cats play a brand of baseball based on toughness, grit, and timely hitting. They are not afraid to stick a shoulder in and get hit and then run once on base to put pressure on the opposing pitching staff.
The Wildcats are currently riding a three game losing streak, including an extra innings loss to rival Louisville on Tuesday night. In addition to the loss to the Louisville, the Wildcats have dropped an extra innings game to Auburn, beat Ole Miss in extra innings, and lost an extra innings game to Ole Miss.
Overall, this is a fascinating series because Kentucky is in the middle of the SEC standings and based on their style of play, will be a solid challenge. In addition, there are some concerns about weather on Friday, which could make for a Saturday doubleheader, and even if they do play Friday, the temperature is expected to be cooler and the stadium is not likely to be packed, leading to a quieter environment. The Horns MUST adhere to their motto and play to their standard and not play flat or take the Wildcats lightly. Goals for Texas will be to limit free passes, continue to pitch well, and be patient at the plate to get into the Kentucky bullpen.
A few interesting stats on Kentucky this season:
- Games decided by 1 run or less: 1-3
- Games decided by 4 runs or less: 3-5
- Games decided by 5 or more: 2-2
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Kentucky Wildcats v. #2 Texas Longhorns
Date: April 11-13
Time: Fri at 630pm ET; Sat at 12pm ET; Sun at 12pm ET
Where: Lexington, Kentucky
TV: SEC Network+ (Fri) - - SEC Network (Sat & Sun)
Series History:
- First Met: 1993
- Last Met: 1993
- Last Texas Victory: 1993 – Texas beat the Wildcats 8-3 during the Austin Regional
- All-Time Series Record: 1-0
- Home: 1-0
- Kentucky is picked to finish 13th out of 16 teams
- 2024 Season: Wildcats finished the year 46-16 overall and 22-8 in the SEC, ending their season in a trip to Omaha
Records:
Kentucky Wildcats: 18-12 (5-7 SEC)
Texas Longhorns: 27-4 (11-1 SEC)
RPI/SOS:
Kentucky: 40 / 35
Texas: 4 / 23
Prediction:
- Texas wins the series 2-1
- On the season, I am 21-10
Pitching Matchups:
- Fri – LHP Jared Spencer (4-1, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) v. RHP Nate Harris (3-1, 3.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)
- Freshman
- Ranked 286 nationally by Perfect Game
- Sat – LHP Luke Harrison (2-0, 2.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) v. RHP Nic McCay (3-0, 3.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
- Senior with a lot of pitching experience
- Top 120 preseason starting pitcher per D1Baseball
- Transferred from South Dakota State
- Collegiate Baseball Freshman All-American (2019)
- All-Summit League First Team (2024)
- Sun – Texas RHP Ruger Riojas (6-1, 3.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) v. LHP Ben Cleaver (3-1, 2.36 ERA, 0.86 WHIP)
- Sophomore that has really broken out in his second year after a successful first season
- SEC Pitcher of the Week – Week 3
Kentucky Bullpen:
- Scott Rouse (3-0, 1 save, 4.13 ERA, 28.1 IP)
- Jackson Nove (0-2, 4.71 ERA, 21 IP)
- Tommy Skelding (1-0, 1 save, 5.11 ERA, 12.1 IP)
- Ethan Walker (0-0, 6.00 ERA, 21 IP)
- Simon Gregersen (0-2, 1 save, 7.62 ERA, 13 IP)
Kentucky Offensive Leaders:
- Cole Hage (.346 BA, 1.156 OPS, 9 HR, 26 RBI, .664 SLG%, .493 OB%, 11-13 SB)
- Patrick Herrera (.333 BA, .915 OPS, 1 HR, 20 RBI, .437 SLG%, .478 OB%, 7-7 SB)
- Tyler Bell (.322 BA, .947 OPS, 5 HR, 31 RBI, .551 SLG%, .396 OB%, 5-9 SB)
- Shaun Montoya (.287 BA, .792 OPS, 1 HR, 17 RBI, .389 SLG%, .403 OB%, 10-11 SB)
Team Stats Comp:
Scoring Margin (Run Differential):
Kentucky: 44th (+2.8)
Texas: 17th (+3.8)
Runs Per Game:
Kentucky: 77th (+7.7)
Texas: 88th (+7.6)
Hits per Game:
Kentucky: 174th (+9.0)
Texas: 91st (+9.8)
Runs per Game Allowed:
Kentucky: 42nd (4.8)
Texas: 7th (3.7)
Hits per Game Allowed:
Kentucky: 22nd (7.3)
Texas: 7th (6.5)
STATS BREAKDOWN
| STAT | TEXAS | KENTUCKY |
| Batting Average | .292 | .279 |
| OPS | .930 | .850 |
| Runs | 235 | 230 |
| Hits | 304 | 269 |
| Doubles | 75 | 59 |
| Triples | 7 | 4 |
| Home Runs | 53 | 30 |
| RBIs | 219 | 213 |
| SLG% | .530 | .441 |
| Walks | 163 | 138 |
| Strikeouts | 277 | 213 |
| OB% | .400 | .408 |
| Stolen Bases | 38-52 | 70-84 |
| ERA | 3.03 | 4.20 |
| WHIP | 1.16 | 1.34 |
| Saves | 13 | 4 |
| Earned Runs | 91 | 122 |
| Bases on Balls | 112 | 127 |
| Strikeouts | 282 | 264 |
| Home Runs Allowed | 17 | 29 |
| B/Avg | .208 | .228 |
| Errors | 28 | 28 |
| Fielding % | .975 | .974 |
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Weekend Non-Conference Games:
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Weekend SEC Games:
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Look at the current hitting stats for SEC teams:
Look at the current pitching stats for SEC teams:
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